Daniel Loh on Air 171019 - cautious in equity

Summary

Cautious on US market as it runs up too high.

Crude oil
strong resistance at 55

STI
Strong support 3200
Resistance 3350
At current situation, suggest profit taking

Cautious on Hong Kong Market as it has run up too fast. HSI above 28000 level is considered expensive. Suggest to take profit.

Market may near the last phase of bull market.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Geo Energy FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.355, 0.310, 0.28, 0.255, 0.225, 0.19, 0.135, 0.12

FA
Commodities sector is as good as a defensive sector as of now. We may not expect a commodities boom like old age, as current economy is more on technology driven rather than conventional business driven like energy and resources.
But on the bright side, China economy is showing sign of picking up, if it does, the huge demand from China population will spur the growth of commodities price too..and I believe price will be slowly strengthen up

At current price of 0.27, it trades at P/E about 5 - 10 (average up the yearly profit). If it were to hit the fair value price of 15, it will be 0.81 ( from P/E 5 to 15 ) or 0.4 ( from P/E 10 to 15 ). But because of commodities and resources not a favorable sectors now, it is good we use P/E 10 as fair value.. so the best potential for the price to reach P/E 10 is about 0.27 to 0.54 

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

CSE Global FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.565, 0.52, 0.485, 0.455, 0.415, 0.36, 0.33
After breaking down the long term support level at 0.415, CSE establishing a long term bearish trend. If have faith and wish to buy on dips, suggest to wait for a bottom consolidation line to be formed first, the consolidation bottom level should hang near to flat level for at least 1 to 6 months depending on the volume indication.
Conclusion: bearish

recent activities and news that could be the main reason for CSE price being beaten down:
- 2Q17 recorded net loss of $13.8M
- CSE to pay US$12m as settlement for a potential civil liability to U.S. Department of the Treasury' s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
- The alleged violations arose from payment in USD for rendering non-US goods to Iran.

- CSE Global is expected to recognise a 2Q17 net loss arising from the one-off charge.

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

AEM FATA

current price 2.79
TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 2.96, 2.77, 2.57, 2.34, 2.05, 1.74, 1.4, 1.18
It needs to break above 2.96 all time hight before it can resume its bullish uptrend

Using P/E to guide the fair value:
Current price 2.79 at P/E around 10.8
When it hit fair value 15, estimated at 2.79 * (15/10.8) = 3.88

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Mid term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

A-Smart FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.84, 0.795, 0.740, 0.7, 0.64, 0.575, 0.505

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

FA ( Fundamental Analysis )