胡立阳最新博客，“三分糊涂，十分精明”——认清股价涨跌趋势

2011-4-27 17:15:38
摘要:胡立阳接受了腾讯微博的采访，在其微博中，胡立阳阐述了其市场上涨中中“三分糊涂”，股市下跌中“十分精明”的投资理念，向投资者提供了股市由空翻多的六个讯号，和有多翻空的五个讯号。...

胡立阳被誉为“台湾股坛教父”，曾是美林证券第一位华籍副总裁兼分公司总经理，中国人在华尔街最高职位，于对大盘、个股判断特别准确，人们送给了胡立阳华尔街“股市神童”的称号。

胡立阳于85年底应邀回亚洲服务，在台湾的中央、政治大学教授股票投资学，并担任证券市场发展基金会秘书长，掀起了空前的投资热潮，。胡立阳将西方很多证券市场术语带到台湾，诸如“综合类券商”“金融衍生品”“股指期货”“高开低走”以及一些技术指标的翻译和传播，这些名词随着内地股市诞生也传到了大陆。更有趣的是，“名嘴”一词就是1987年台湾媒体为形容其讲演的魅力对他的尊称。

近期，胡立阳接受了腾讯微博的采访，在其微博中，胡立阳阐述了其市场上涨中中“三分糊涂”，股市下跌中“十分精明”的投资理念，向投资者提供了股市由空翻多的六个讯号，和有多翻空的五个讯号。近期，胡立阳最新博客已经刊登了其和腾讯之间的对方内容，供投资者阅览。

以下内容转于胡立阳最新微博的博文。
腾讯：胡老师好，不久前您在微博上提到，成为股市高手的秘诀是──股价在上涨时最好“三分迷糊”，在下跌时就要“十分精明”！得到网友们的热烈回响，大家都认为这的确是发人深省的股市经典名言。但是，想进一步请问胡老师，就您多年的经验分析，股价在涨跌之间是否有存在一些技术分析上的信号，能加强投资人的信心，以便能确实做到该迷糊时迷糊，该精明时精明。先谢谢胡老师！

胡立阳：好的！是这样的！
如果股价仍然是处在上升趋势中，或是已经由下跌趋势转为上升趋势，就可以耐心续抱，甚至大胆加码！
遇到下跌，股价若是置身在下跌趋势之中，或是出现由多转空的现象，当然就要当机立断，停损卖出了。
股价趋势由空翻多的六个讯号：

在日线部份：
（一）股价连续大涨3天
（二）5天中上涨4天
（三）成交量逐日增加
（四）10日移动平均线翻上再看周线：
（五）周线连三红。
（六）10周移动平均线开始翻升。
请注意！第（五）及第（六）项为股价波段行情可能产生的征兆！

股价趋势由多翻空的五个讯号：
（一）个股股价连续大跌2∼3天，跌幅已超过10%
（二）5天中下跌4天
（三）10日移动平均线开始下滑
（四）周线出现1∼2根长黑
( 五）10周移动平均线翻下


Source/转贴/Extract/: myfp.com
Publish date:27/04/11

胡立阳：长线而言这点以下满仓待涨！

 

我只能这么说，投资股票真的是充满了黄金、白银。当时我们万总也讲到了，黄金涨这么多，白银涨这么多，同时，胡先生要告诉你，股市真的是金银珠宝满满满满的，但是你要知道怎么去赚。我从事这个行业已经三十几年了，从来没有想到全世界有这么好赚钱的地方，就在股票市场。你们以前不知道，你们以前不相信，那么现在胡立阳来到太原依次把答案给你们说清楚，讲明白，好不好？

　　以前我在华尔街的时候，我有一个客户，他是这个标准的股票大王，他很会做股票。我认识他的第一天，他就跟我讲说，立阳，今天是我们第一天见面，我想把我的状况给你讲一下。这位先生的名字叫贾斯汀。我说，贾斯汀您有什么状况？他说，立阳我就跟你讲一个情况。那时我在卖基金，我们销售很多来自全球各地的基金，华尔街的时候。他说当你卖基金的时候，生意不好的时候，你最需要帮助的时候，因为您没有收入，他说你给我打电话，你要我买多少我就买多少，我一定帮你忙。我听了以后，天啊，这么好的圣诞老人。他说，立阳你真的不要客气啊，就这样。他拜访我的时候这么说，我心里好高兴，好温暖。过了半年以后，美国的股市每天跌，每天跌，天天跌，跌我真的没有生意了，我的面包跟牛奶不知道在哪里了，真的没有收入，大家都不想买股票。那我突然想到贾斯汀先生，让他来救我。然后我就给他打电话，贾斯汀先生您好，我是胡立阳，你还记得吗？。他说，当然记得，你是我的投资顾问，我当然记得你。你不是答应我，在我生意最不好的时候，你要救我，给我捧场买基金。他说，你现在生意不好？我说，对啊，生意真的很差。他说生意差得多久？两个月一点生意都没有。他说，立阳，你怎么不早打电话给我，你要我买多少？我把整个办公室统统卖给他。他说我统统收了，没想到这真是个大户。真的不可思议，真的让我太感动了，我下面两三个月都不用做任何生意，就他这一笔生意就救了我，真的世界上就有这样的圣诞老人。但是他买完以后，他跟我讲说，立阳，麻烦你答应我一件事情，当有一天你生意很好的时候，那个时候就是我全部退场的时候，那时候我要把全部基金卖光光，所有的股票卖光。他就这样跟我说。就这样子，这么一位先生，贾斯汀先生。他真的是给我整个人生的智慧，能让我在华尔街做到今天，我真的没有想到。当股票不好的时候，他去买股票，有多少他统统买；当大家都觉得股票很好了，大家都想买股票，他全部卖光光，这样低买。这叫做什么？这叫做高卖，真的是高手。所以千万千万记得，很多人跟我说，胡先生，你知不知道中国的A股真的是上天又下海，经常涨的这么高，跌的话，跌到世界第一。他说股票很难做，我觉得一点都不难做。为什么？我发现投资朋友们太紧张了，过度的紧张，但是由于这么多人很紧张，带给你们无限的机会。就像贾斯汀先生一样，如果他今天来到我们中国，投资我们的股市，他一定可以赚大钱。在1664的时候，胡老师在上海演讲，我说这个就是底部，你一定要买进，这是千载难逢的机会，这1664你们还怕什么，但他们就不敢买。我跟他们讲，我说在股市中，胡老师说过很多名言，在股市中别人每犯一个错误，都是在辛辛苦苦地为你们累积财富，你们知道吗？就这样子一句名言。他们说，真的吗，别人每犯一个错误都是在为我们累积财富吗？结果胡老师是完全正确的。

　　你们今天听到过80%的名词，大概都是胡老师发明的，全球的华人，我在全球世界的演讲，你们听到很多名词，比如说你们听过什么“涨停板”、“跌停板”，这都是胡老师二十几年前发明的，比如“开高走低”，现在叫高开低走，低开高走，开低走高，很多很多的名词，“衍生性金融商品”，还有一句名言叫“行情总在绝望中诞生”。几乎80%的名词都是胡老师发明的。

　　今天来到这边，当然我知无不言，言无不尽，你听到半个钟头之后，你对股票市场完全豁然开朗，无论是股票市场、房地产、黄金、石油，我直接把下面的答案都告诉你，当然你们会觉得一开始很兴奋，全世界还有这样的一个人物，可以把黄金的走势告诉你、石油的走势告诉你、A股将来何去何从可以告诉你们，房地产的市场走势未来十年都可以告诉你们。但是你们听完我的演讲你们不会快乐，你们的人生是从此以后是黑白的，因为你知道答案你就不会快乐了。很多人不信啊，胡老师，你赶快告诉我A股涨到哪里，黄金涨到哪里，知道了以后，很多人会觉得在金融市场里面不好玩了，千万不要认为不好玩，将来你们赚了钱，一定要记得做些慈善事业，捐助给很多需要帮助的，你们就会觉得好玩了。因为知道我这套投资的法则之后，完全知道答案，好像没有期待了，没有期待就没了彩色了，但是今天我还是有必要把答案公布给大家。

　　就在去年的九月多，十月份，我记得当时到西安参加华山论剑，很多媒体都有采访。当时我们的股市跌跌不休，跌破了2600以下，到了2500多点。大家看PPT，参加这个论坛的有香港的股神曹仁超、诺贝尔经济学奖的蒙代尔，我们三位在那边发表我们的看法。当时我很笃定的给大家讲，我说A股上证指数2571点以下就是买进的区域，你怎么买都挣钱，这是老天爷捧着钱来送你的，千万不要拒绝它的好意。当时很多人一直笑，从来没有听过有人这么讲。当时我是不是这样说的？2571点以下都是买股票的好时机，那么在台下有人问我了，胡老师请问什么时候？我就在下个月十月份，你们会看到胡立阳说，十月份上证指数2571以下点就是买的时候。结果呢？就是十月份，就在我离开西安以后，这股市就起来了。当时有很多媒体马上就问我说，会涨到什么地方？胡老师给他们说，从2319开始一直反弹，一直反弹，你们都不要担心，都不要害怕，甚至拉回到的时候，到2750点以下再买进，如果第一次上车，那么2750点还有一次机会，这个指数一直冲到3000到3400点之间，天下第一关，那个时候买进要小心谨慎，因为我们已经看到了未来，当时我一步步跟大家讲，很多媒体都报道，是不是天下第一关？3000到3400点。（PPT）那么当时，才2000多点，2011年10月26号才刚开始反弹的时候，我就用《中国证券报》、《中证网》就用这个标题，3000到3400点是A股的天下第一关，那个时买进要小心谨慎，那么在2319的时候，你闭着眼睛买都一定赚钱。但是你过了3000点，在3000-3400之间，尤其是正中央点3200点，一定要小心谨慎。结果最高点是多少，大家还记得吗？3186点。我直接把答案告诉你们。很神奇对不对？

　　再神奇的更多了。二十几年前台北的股市在800点的时候，台北的股市从来没有超过900点。800到900点的时候，那么我应邀从华尔街回到台北担任证券基金会秘书长，当时我一回去，记者招待会上我就说，我看到了你们没有看到的东西，但是希望你们的人生不要变得黑白的，我把答案告诉你们，你们都没有期待了。他们说，胡老师你觉得市场好吗？股市这样三年了，800、900，800、900，历史最高点900点，那胡老师看到多少点？我看到一个数字，就在那个地方，就在那个地方，你们知道吗？他们说多少点？1000吗？1200吗？我说我看到了8000这个数，8后面带着三个0。他们说，胡秘书长你不是开玩笑吧？最高点，台北的股市没有超过900点。你说8000？他们问我时间呢？我说三年。胡老师看到三年台北的股市会从800点涨到8000点，他们都笑的，还有一位老先生笑到假牙都掉到地上了。他说，胡先生您从美国回来的，你可能是不食人间烟火，亚洲的市场不像华尔街这样，绝对不会。结果呢？三年。胡老师有没有说错？我说800涨到8000。结果胡老师错了，错得很离谱，不是8000，12000点。

　　时间再一闪，我看到了美国的股市、欧洲股市、意大利的股市、印度股市、意大利股市等等。刚才万总谈到黄金、石油。我们现在说石油。石油在2008年6月30号，我那天在深圳喜来登饭店，有一场很大型的PK，我和商品大王罗杰斯PK油价。（PPT）当时全球的市场为了石油在沸腾，我记得当时大家都非常看好石油，全球的专家、媒体、舆论都这么说，石油会一飞冲天。我跟大家讲一下这些背景，石油上涨，每天涨停板，涨到140块一桶。那个时候我就马不停蹄，胡老师跟大家说，我看到的是你们没有看到的东西，我看到石油是每天跌，每天跌，跌停板。他们说什么时候？我说很快，可能就是下个星期。他们说，石油已经涨了半年了，哪是你随便讲讲而已。我说大概就是一个礼拜左右，你们会看到。那天是6月30号，我说石油会每天跌，每天跌，跌个不停。他们说跌到多少钱？我说跌到35块，跟矿泉水一样便宜。每个人都笑翻天了，胡先生你好幽默、风趣。那天是6月30号，当时我在深圳，很多媒体做报道，全球的媒体都报道这个新闻，胡先生说跌到35块。结果呢？从7月11日，第11天，每天跌，跌个不停，结果五个月以后跌到多少钱你们知道吗？从147最高点，我演讲那天是140块，跌到33块半，我当时说跌到35块。所以我一再强调您人生会是黑白的，你会被我吓到。

　　我们再看，A股在1664点的时候，稍微看一下，很多媒体的报道。当时我们A股上证指数跌到1700点的时候，我给大家讲这是千载难逢的机会，你们一定要买进，那么大家……（PPT）

　　我们看啊，这是《上海财经日报》，我们来看一下。胡立阳说，1700到2500是超级大底部，你们一定要买进。那天是2008年11月的时候，我们上证指数还在1700多点，还在徘徊的时候，这是超级难得的机会。当时很多媒体专访，我就说，跟熊说拜拜吧，这是牛市的本命年，牛年就要来了，2009年，你一定要买进股票，真的是这个股市真的是非常非常难得的机会。所以当时买进的话，现在可以吃漫牛全宴，当时的指数还在1800点的时候。当时我就给大家说，这个指数会一路涨到3000到3400点，天下第一关你们要小心谨慎。

　　好，拉回到我们今天，那么我们今天的股票市场何去何从？为什么胡老师一直说3000到3400点是天下第一关呢？因为我在全球做了很多数据数字，我曾经花了七年的时间，那么有很多台湾媒体说胡立阳怎么失踪了，你怎么一下子消息不见了？我说我需要研究股票，我需要研究巴西的股票，需要研究阿根廷的股票，需要研究墨西哥，需要研究拉丁美洲的股票，全美国的股市，尤其是纳斯达克的股市，我需要到印度，到好多地方研究股票，整个七年的时间，我去研究这些统计数字。为什么一次一次看石油看的准？等一会我们讲黄金，黄金简直是不可思议，我在半年前就说会达到1440块。怎么一关一关都让我料中，这都有迹可循的。我跟你们说，我花了很多很多的时间才得到这个答案，其中有一个答案就是全球的股市只要从底部反弹，只要涨到一倍的时候，所谓的“涨一倍慢压区”。只要是它涨到一倍，它就要在这个地方休息至少半年之久。很多人不敢相信，像我在新加坡，我在马来西亚演讲，我都跟他们讲同样的话。

　　我们来看一下新加坡股市，新加坡海峡时报指数在1500点的时候，我说到3000点涨一倍的时候，就有一个慢压区你要小心谨慎。我们看一下简报就知道了，看PPT简报。我们看新加坡海峡时报指数，是不是从1500点涨到3000点的，你们看看底部是不是在1500点。（PPT）它的底部在在1500，很早就说了，大家都不要害怕。（PPT） 回到这边来，大家看看这个1500点的底部，一路上涨，我说不要害怕，真的不要害怕，真正你要小心谨慎的是3000点，涨一倍的地方你看看是不是3000点，这里整理了很久。全球股市一样，台北股市，所有的股市都一样。这个指数涨一倍之后，它拉回这里大概15%，只是拉回这里10%到15%你一定要买进。（PPT）你看，它拉回多少。3000拉回10%，2700，就这样整理了好久好久，这是一个非常标准的范例，我就是拿新加坡的股市做一个例子。

　　那么香港的股市也一样，香港恒生指数，我接受采访的时候2300、2400，我就跟香港的投资朋友们讲，你们要小心谨慎，胡立阳说香港股市要回档了。他们说笑死人了，你知道香港的股市现在有多红过旺吗，它每天涨。我说我不管你怎么讲，香港股市就要回档了。媒体都不相信。我跟他讲恒生指数回档大概18000点，回档10%到15%，回到18000、19000左右您才能再进场。他们有不相信，结果香港股市完全被胡老师料中了。（PPT）我们看一下，香港股市涨幅一倍到11500，恒生指数，最后乘以2，涨一倍是23000点。它会拉回多少？拉回10%到15%。台北股市从4200点涨到8400点。当时我在电视中跟所有的观众朋友说，你们要注意，台北的股市马上就要大幅度回档了。他们说哪一点回档？我说在8400点，我讲的时候还在8000点，大家都觉得好笑，你这次肯定预料错了，因为全世界热钱泛滥，这是（PPT）香港的封面，他们觉得看得很准，不可思议。

　　当时台北的股市，我说8400点你们要小心谨慎，我说8400要小心，他们觉得我是乌鸦嘴。他们说，胡老师我们都很尊敬你，你怎么讲这个呢。我说真的，我实在忍不住了。结果台北股市最高涨到多少，你们知道吗？8395。只差5点，就一直跌价跌了八个月，而且我当时就说会跌六到八个月。

　　我们回到上证市场， 上证指数、沪深股市，最低1664，乘以2，你们知道涨到什么地方，3200、3300点。那你们知道为什么每次到3200、3400就会拉回来？这就叫“涨一倍慢压区”，全世界都没有例外。你们知道吗？平常有春夏秋冬，地球上有白天、黑夜。股市也一样，它有大自然的波动，大自然的规则。股市的大自然规则就是它从底部涨一倍以后，它就会慢压，所以这都是自然现象。就像古时候的人，说太阳跌下去，被一个日全食吓到。

　　过去也许没有人给你正确的投资观念，今天胡先生很高兴有这个机会来到太原给大家分享。真的，股票市场就有这个现象。举例说，涨一倍的慢压区。碰到涨一倍的慢压区，我们看，1664，最高点涨到多少，有谁知道？3478点。我当时就提醒大家，接受这么多媒体专访，我就说3000到3400点要小心谨慎，有慢压区，有很多人都不知道。我们是不是相见恨晚，我要是早点来到太原，你们在3400点的时候是不是可能就短线投机了，不要再随便乱买了，要谨慎。拉回来多少？跌过头了。我刚才讲跌10%到15%，是2970点。我们上证指数绝不能跌过2975点，跌破了这个点就叫超跌。什么叫超跌？超跌就是你一买进，就一定赚钱。因为别人紧张犯错带给你机会，但是它还跌，跌到多少？2319。胡老师说，多少点以下可以买进？2571。有人说，胡老师你这个2571是怎么算出来的？我现在马上教你们。拿高档、拿低档，除以2，得出的答案，那个点以下就叫超买区域。什么叫高档？什么叫低档？我先跟你们讲，1644就是低档，用3478+1664/2就是2571，那个就是历史性同期数字告诉我们，那就是捡便宜的区域。很多人在听胡老师演讲之前都说，专家都说我们要低买、要高卖。什么叫低买，没有人给你准确讲出来，每个人讲得模棱两可的。胡老师直接告诉你，我们的低档1663+3478/2，那就是低档。这个算法很简单，我们再算一下。当时股市涨到3186的时候，反弹上去的时候，很多人说，胡老师我没有听你的，我没有在2571的时候买进，那现在多少点可以买？我说底部是多少？2319。那么涨到最高的时候是3186，是不是回档了。刚才你们有没有听我的建议，我说在3000-3400一定要小心谨慎，尤其是3200。很多人说，胡老师好准，真的回档了。那怎么进仓，二度进仓？因为它在2571的时候没有买进，那多少点我们可以买进呢？我们拿2319底部，最高到3186，加起来除以2，神气的数字又出来了，2750点以下都可以买进。

　　当时我接受媒体专访的时候，我说大家不要急，拉回来也不要害怕，要有正确的观念，只要2750点以下，胡老师说就是你二度进仓机会，你会赚到钱的。那么2750怎么算出来的？我现在把答案告诉大家。最低的2319加最高反弹3186，加起来除以2，2750。（PPT）你看2750再进仓，这是《扬子晚报》的专访。我当时跟大家讲说，你不要害怕，2750以下你可以再进仓，还是老天爷要送你钱。他们说，胡老师进仓以后涨幅到什么时候？我说还是3000到3400点之间，天下第一关，小心谨慎。好，现在到了这个地方我们要何去何从啊？我跟大家说，这涨一倍的慢压区平均要盘整大概半年左右。那我们两次，一次到3478点，还有一个是到上市的3186。那我们注意，第一个关卡我们要越过是3186，3200未来这个地方要越过，第二个最大的关卡3478点，就是3400点左右我们要越过它。那么到了3000和3400之间，我大胆的预测，我们的上证指数会在这边箱型整理。上上下下，上上下下，底部的话也许在3000，头部再上的话3400。那么胡老师再提醒大家一下，3000点这个地方，我们是第二天站上，礼拜五收获了多少点？3030。那么已经第二天再上3000，要是连续再上三天，就表示上证指数站稳了3000点。就是箱型的底部了。所以礼拜一、礼拜二，这一两天很重要，只要还是维持在3000点的话就可能站稳了3000点。下来我们已经知道答案了，3000、3400，3000、3400这是一个箱型整理。这段箱型整理大概要多少时间呢？我大胆的预测了一下，大概要一到两个月之久。根据我的经验，这个箱型整理要一两个月，对台北股市整理七八个月，对新加坡的股市整理了六个月，对香港整理了五个月零十四天，大概都是六个月左右。但是我刚才讲两度在3400点之间遇到了压力，把这时间扣掉，还要盘整一到两个月，所以不要急着想股市能一飞冲天。好，那越过3400怎么走？我一步步地告诉你。

　　（PPT）我们来看一下台湾的股票，这家航空叫长荣航空，台湾两家国际航空公司的股票。你们看到这个股价的走法，你们就会觉得为什么不早点认识胡立阳，你要是早点认识我，很多股票的走法，根本就像是老天爷捧着钱送给你一样，但是你要懂得怎么去接它的钱。

　　（PPT）这只股票很特殊的。你们看12.5这个地方，跟12.5跟13，上上下下，上上下下，这样牛皮了三个月之久。很多不懂得这个股票的人就说，你看这个股票多烂啊，根本不会动，牛皮得不得了，五毛钱之间上上下下，上上下下。胡老师提醒你们，绝对不要买像这样的股票盘整的。这一整理就整理三年，你知道吗。还看过一个股票一辈子都在整理，所以你不要不信邪。但是你要买什么时候的呢？买它突破的时候，你看这个地方突破了。胡老师，我注意到这个地方突破了，13.2，突破了13，等了三个月终于突破了。这个一突破了以后一定要买进，这是老天爷送钱来了，我甚至会告诉大家会涨到多少钱，底部12.5×1.2就会达到15块钱，你们会看到的。有20%的上涨空间就真的会到15。15、15.5，这个牛皮了两个月。很多人这个时候买这个股票，说这个股票烂透了，才涨了5毛钱，我告诉你，这就是淘金挖宝的，要有耐心，你机会来了。突破15.8了，可不可以买进？当然可以买进。拿这个15.8×1.2，会涨到18，真的来到18，很神奇吧；然后17、18，17、18整理了半天，胡老师，这个股票好烂啊，一块钱可以整理两个月；好了，胡老师，突破了，18块突破了，现在可不可以买进？当然可以买进。会涨到多少钱？17×1.2，会涨到20.5；好，再来，胡老师这个股票好烂，19.5、20，你看你赶上的时机永远是烂；19.5、20，19.5、20，哎，突破了，突破20.5了，可不可以买进？当然可以买进。会涨到多少？19.5×1.2涨到23.5。我给你们讲，你们回去看你们的股票。我前一阵子在别的城市演讲，我把这个东西教给大家，每一个人一看都觉得，胡老师我怎么早点认识你，我这边卖掉了，突破的时候没有买进。有些股票突破以后不止涨了1.2倍，还涨了1.3倍、1.4倍。我大概研究全球20多个新兴市场，包括印度、巴西、拉丁美洲的股票，它们很多规则性，平均是1.2倍。我把这个秘密交给你们，我今天教你们这个秘密是什么原因呢？因为讲了我们上证指数，上证指数我们预测未来是3400、3400、3400，如果一天突破3400，会到哪里？用3400×1.2是3600。

　　胡老师在台北上了很多节目，我跟他们讲，台北的股市未来我看到9900点。当时他们不相信。当时还7000、8000点的时候，箱型整理了七个月的时候，我已经看到了未来。我说第一步先突破未来。我们来看看你就知道了，因为这个跟上证指数有关系，举个例子给大家看看。给你先看新加坡股市，一一验证给你听。

　　投资股票我可以跟你们讲，买进靠机会，什么机会？有人会犯错，给你邀约的时候给你买到；有人会犯错，在2319的地方卖股票。所以买进就要靠他们犯错，给你机会。卖出靠什么？卖出靠智慧，智慧来自于经验。因为胡老师在全球各地研究了七年的时间，七年的时间任何收入都没有，为什么？我为了这经验。经验是什么？智慧来自于经验，经验来自于统计数字。这些统计数字就是经验，经验结合成统计数字，直接把答案告诉你。你看台北的股市在7000、8000的时候整整整理了七个月的时间，然后一突破了以后到了8400；在8400又整理了两个半月。所以要相信整理，突破就是拿底部去乘以1.2，就是下一个可以期待的位置。现在8400已经突破了，那8400×1.2是9600，所以我已经看到台北股市未来会到9600。拿箱底区域乘以1.2，一步步的推算，也可以推算我们的上证指数未来会到什么地方。

　　很多人说上证指数会涨到五千、八千、一万。我希望如此，但是暂时期望无期。我们做股票，一步一步地来，像3000、3400，3000、3400，过了3400，3600，一步步的往上看。投资股票就是这样，一步步根据统计数字，根据经验来告诉你们答案。

　　我们很快讲到黄金。我那时在上海演讲，2009年9月，那天黄金刚好站上一千块，他们问我黄金会何去何从。我就问他们，我说特别对黄金感兴趣的举手。没有人举手。因为2009年全球股市非常好，没有人玩黄金，我说我已经看到了你们没有看到的未来，黄金很快到1200。为什么？就是这个20%理论。当大家都认为牛皮的时候，这个理论是什么原理呢？大家不相信，认为股市好烂，七上八下，我不玩了。当它默默突破了以后，老天爷20%的大礼，就这么简单。

　　刚才给你们举这个航空公司的例子。12、12.5，12、12.5，大家觉得好难玩，这个股票好烂啊，大家在对它没有信心的时候，一旦突破了，一突破就底部乘以1.2，那是老天爷送给有耐心的人的礼物，送给真的懂得买进靠机会的人的礼物。那么同样的道理，你学这个很有用，任何商品，期货、股价、指数都一样，甚至个别股票也一样。

　　有一个投资者说，如果到1200的时候没有注意，再到多少？我说再拿1200×1.2是1440块，当时他们都不相信。结果黄金到1200。但是有一个前提，大家都没有注意，大家注意就会来了。所以当时大家都没有注意，黄金当时还没有注意，因为股票当时比黄金涨的还更多，黄金在1200的时候我大胆预测，（PPT）你看好多媒体采访，我在新加坡、马来西亚，各地的。我说黄金涨到1440，你们会看到，结果黄金到1300块的时候，全世界开始注意了，全世界都报道黄金是很到的投资，尤其像今天，全世界都知道黄金涨到1470了。胡老师说，那个20%的礼物已经送完了，黄金在大幅狂涨再涨20%的机会是零。

　　我们来讲讲房地产，很多人对房地产很有兴趣，因为我在全球各地演讲，大家好想知道。胡老师说，全世界的房地产三个字，“玩完了”，游戏结束了。我讲的是全世界，全球，都差不多，房地产要休息一段时间。这一段时间是多久呢？胡老师说休息十年，所以房地产会拉回整理十年。你看社会说这房地产，每天买、每天买，不会跌，没问题的，绝对保值了，没问题。我可以告诉你，当它来大幅度修整的时候，一修整就修整十年。胡老师怎么预测？第一个我看全球资金的流动。我发现全球的热钱在2009年的12月中旬，也就是2010年1月份左右的那段时间，我已经看到了你们没有看到的东西。全世界的热钱已经到了最高峰了，全球的热钱开始慢慢下滑了。当全球热钱回到美国的银行体系，回到美国的债券市场，那么资金就开始慢慢少了，当然这个速度不是三两天就少完了。这个热钱是积了十年，资金泛滥不是一天两天形成的，热钱的海啸累积了十年，累积到一年多前的时候到了最高峰，开始退潮。胡老师研究过去五十年的记录发现，只要热钱在退潮，全球的房地产肯定好不起来，我跟你们保证。我讲的是长线，没有说热钱在下跌，房地产在上涨，不可能，全球都没有例外。这是长线；短线，胡立阳说，股市走在房市前面六个月，当股市开始盘整、休息的时候，房地产六到八个月以后就会跟着盘整、下跌。胡老师注意到从印度、从巴西、所有的全球的股市都是大约在去年九月、十月份左右出现整理，台北的股市、香港的股市都一样，我们的A股整理了更久，整理了一年多。那么房地产总是跟进后面，因为股市走在前面，孪生兄弟一个走得快一个走得慢，仅此而已。绝对不要以为说股票不好就买房子，房子不好买股票，这两个是孪生兄弟，因为这两个都是需要用资金来推动的。所以胡立阳大胆的预测，只要是股市全球进入盘整，短线六到八个月以后房地产就会开始走软，那么这个时间差不多就是这个时候，所以现在不排除全球的房地产拉回整理，平均幅度10%到15%，这个整理的时候可能会很长很长，可能拖到十年之久。

　　刚刚万总讲黄金，有人会问黄金会不会保值，黄金很棒很棒。有位投资者跟我说"黄金没问题，黄金比股市稳多了"。如果你认为没有问题，往往问题就来了。我今天不是指黄金，任何东西都要警惕在心。

　　胡老师讲一个小故事给你们听。1980年，我在美国担任投资顾问的时候，我有一位客户他说黄金没有问题，那时候黄金天天长，长期保值，短线拉回我也不害怕。他买黄金期货，你知道他赚了多少？他当时是在加州硅谷，他是一个花农，他不想种花了，赚了钱就买黄金，从他买的时候500、600一路涨到850块。他跟我说立阳，我连劳斯莱斯都买了。在美国有两个仆人24小时服侍他。买了好票房子，好漂亮的花园大厦。因为他赚了大钱，我当时给他讲，张先生你觉得黄金没有问题的时候，可能问。他就笑我，笑死了，就你们这种人才不会赚钱。结果呢？黄金从850块钱下跌，就开始进入回调。你们知道回调了多久呢？两个月从850跌倒820、810，他说不要担心，正常回档不要担心，结果我替他开始担心了，黄金跌了多久？跌了三个月，五个月，、半年、一年，跌了一年回档结束没有？拉回850？一路下跌一年没有回来，两年没有回来，三年没有回来，四年没有回来，五年、六年、七年、八年、九年、十年、十一年、十二年、十三年、十四年、十五年、十六年、十七年、十八年、十九年、二十年、二十一年，这个空头市场走了21年，从850块钱，回档整理还没有结束。继续，25年的空头市场黄金。你们说黄金保值吗？继续，二十六、二十七、二十八，28年回来了，终于回来了。先到20年的时候，中间要休息一下，1999年黄金终于止跌了，从850最高峰，1999年以后跌到多少钱？250块。你知道吗？850跌到250，跌了七成。我也很喜欢黄金，不是说黄金一定降。全世界在人多、钱多的时情况下就有炒作，不管是石油也好、黄金也好，都是一样的，没有永远保值的。五年、十年没有问题，五十年那就要碰运气了。包括房地产在内，都会碰到回档整理的，涨多了就一定会回调。2008年的时候终于回到了850块钱。28年后从250年回到850。我那位客户张先生大概是在投资黄金一年以后就宣告破产了，我真的听说他现在流落外地。他把他三栋房子都卖了，花圃都买光了，新买的车子都买光了，听说居无定所，变成一个流浪汉，漂泊在美国各地。一年两年以后，再从850跌到500。所以提醒你们，黄金都可以套牢28年。

　　讲到黄金、房地产、石油。石油，胡老师当时预算的很准确。石油，预算给大家看过了，我讲的是纽约原油，我当时说跌到33块半的时候，大家开始悲观，原油跌到15、17块都有人说。我说不会，就是除以2再除以2，就是二分之一测评法。任何商品、期货，包含股价指数，从最高峰过渡的时候，除以2就拿到合理价位，合理价位再除以2就是老天爷给你送钱的机会了。石油最高到147，中间除以2是73.5，永远记住这个数字。73.5代表什么？代表你在73.5以下买进闭着眼睛都会赚钱，长期；短线，再除以2，36块半。所以胡老师说35块。最低跌到33块，我知道可以买，买了以后，回去以后涨一倍的慢压区又来了，回到合理价位，73块都要慢一趟。果然不错，在73块停了很久很久，停了整整七个月。然后果然不错，73块上去了以后，我说乘上1.2倍，73×1.2，答案是多少？答案是88块。我说石油会在88块停很久。如果发生战争的话，将来发生金融海啸，再从88块乘上1.2，88块乘以1.2，就这次战争又来了，什么埃及、北非这些战乱起来，从88乘以1.2，所以原油价格是105块。我已经很早就算出来了，我半年前就说是105块，今天纽约原油是108。

　　所以再看看A股，6124除以2是多少？3050左右。胡立阳说只要上证指数在3050以下，闭着眼睛买都会赚钱，长期。我讲的长期是什么？三年、五年、十年、二十年。我今天到太原给你们讲，上证指数在3050点一下，闭着眼睛买，长线三年、五年、八年、十年、二十年都是捡便宜的。你们现在买博时基金，去买进，不要害怕，只要上证指数在3050点一下。短线再除以2，那是千载难逢的机会，大约是1600左右。当时为什么我说1600是底部到了？因为坚信，石油等都一样，除以2再除以2，这就是底部区。

　　我再重复一下。

　　做一个简单的结论。以长线而言，三年、五年、十年、二十年，只要上证指数在3050点以下就是捡便宜。这是胡老师长期统计经验告诉我，是这个答案。当然原因有很多，第一个，理论上股市都欣欣向荣，跟房地产一样，长期往上移动的。因为企业钱是越赚越多，这是人类生存的自然法则，企业越赚钱越多，市盈率会越往上抬高，股价越往上抬高。3050点以下上证指数长线而言，绝对是赚钱的机会。但是短线，就是有一个天下第一关，就是涨一倍的慢压区，3000到3400是慢压区，会振荡一到两个月。如果将来过了3400，3400乘上1.2，你会看到3600点。这样清楚吗？

　　当然不能告诉你买哪个个股，但是我可以告诉你一个方向。想不想知道股票买个股的技巧？买股票很简单，出去不要跟太多人讲。买股票千万千万，要赚钱的话，就买那种会涨的，不要买会跌的。胡老师你好喜欢开玩笑，再讲明白一点。

　　再讲明白一点，买股票要买活的，活的股票。你们买海鲜，你们要海鲜也是要买生蹦活泼的。前几天一位老先生给我看一个股票，胡老师，你看我这三只股票什么时候可以解套。我说张先生这股票怎么回事，多少钱买的？他说18块钱买的。我说现在已经跌到9块了。他说对啊，已经跌到半价了，他说什么时候可以解套？他用那个眼神看着我，那种期盼你们知道吗？可是我不能讲实话，实话是什么？那只股票已经死了。买了多久？已经买了一年多了，已经死了一年多了。已经过世了，一个过世的股票怎么能解套呢？所以买股票一定要买活的，不要买死的。有人说胡老师开玩笑，什么叫活的股票，什么叫死的股票？我把答案给你，我花了十年的时间，在巴西、拉丁美洲，看到很有意思的……

　　我教你们什么股票是死的，活的。你要看人是不是活着，就要看心电图。我教你看（演示）。股票也有你们知道吗？股票看什么你们知道吗？股票的心电图是什么？胡立阳把这个秘密告诉你们。看十日移动平行线，只要十日移动平行线往上了，就是活的，十日移动平行线就再见了。我说买这个股票笑死我了，他跑过来跟我说，胡老师，昨天买今天这个股票就套了，十五块变十三块。我就看这个图，我的天啊，那十日都一直下移，十日移动平行线都是下移的，就是股票已经走了。那股票走了以后会不会活过来，偶尔会活过来，十日翻上去就活过来。

　　十日线什么时候会翻回去？胡老师教你们，天天跌天天跌，连续大涨三天，或者五天中涨四天。就这个现象，连续大涨三天，或者五天中涨四天这个个股，它的十日移动线就会翻上去，那个心脏又开始跳了。这里可不可以买？可以买。但是少买一点。你本来想买二十手，先买十手，少买一点。那为什么不买二十手？要等。要等什么？等十周平行移动线翻上来。十周移动平行线也翻上来，那这个股票就生动活跳。重复一下。十日移动平行线表示心跳，往上。那么十周移动平行线往上，就叫做生蹦活跳了。如果周线连三红会出现什么现象？很多人讲胡老师我不喜欢做短线，我喜欢做坡段，什么叫坡段行情你们知道吗？波段行情的定义就是周线要连三红。

　　什么叫做移动平行线？

　　（PPT）我们看这个股票周线连两黑之后，十周移动平行线开始往下翻的，这个股票再见，已经死了。这是电子里类的，在这边买任何电子股都赔钱。胡老师说不要碰已经没有心跳的股票。这边十周移动平行线开始翻上，周线连三红，就会出现坡段行情，一大坡，坡段时间平均长度三到五个月。所以你们将来玩基金都是一样，将来买了博时基金你可以把它变得很好玩，跟着这样做。跟万总讲，我现在买了，到这个大盘翻下来，假设你买的是电子类股，电子类股翻下说，“万总，我可不可以先卖一下？”基金今年也许很好，先卖一下，将来再买回来也可以。基金真的是很有趣的东西，你可以把基金玩儿得很有趣。

　　十日移动平行线是看心跳，如果你要它生蹦活跳一定要周线往上翻。出现三个周线连红的话，这个时候大家买个基金，你赚翻天。三到五个月，大概半年的时候，（PPT）这半年你买什么赚什么，这半年你买什么赔什么。当然了，最后你要问我说老师我们都很喜欢听你演讲，我喜欢做短线，我没有时间看那个线，更没有时间看周线，我要看短线可不可以买进？尤其是他喜欢东听西听，听这个人跟他讲买这个，那个人跟他讲买那个。可不可以买？可以，为什么不可以买？人家对你这么好，跟你讲股票可以买，但是买进以后请注意，只要五天之内套牢就卖掉。只要五天之内，比如说20块买的，哪怕是19.9块停掉了，停了五天，只要五天你住在套房里面就把它卖掉。这叫是胡老师发明的五日原则。如果很短线是三日原则，只要三天套牢，就卖掉。因为胡老师研究了全球的股市发现一个现象，当你住在股市的套房五天，通常股市的套房很特别，股市套房住五天以后，会升级，送你住进行政套房，它送你住进行政套房，越住越大这个套房。住满一个月之后，会住最顶级的在顶楼的套房。住满三个月以后会怎么样？住套房住三个月以后会发现什么现象？有没有听过一个老鹰合唱团唱的一首歌叫《加州旅店》，里面一句歌词，你住那么久以后可以随时退房，但是永远不能离开了了。所以说买股票最怕就是套牢三个月以上。套牢三个月以上，随时可以退，但是永远离不开那个旅馆了。因为你套牢已经套太深了。

　　套房不能住超过五天，不管你听谁说的话去买股票，我没有什么意见，没有什么对与不对，你赚了钱没事，赔了钱答应胡老师一定要卖掉。

　　如果我抢短线，涨停板，怎么讲呢？大家听过"富不过三代"，听过吗？那我告诉大家，涨不过三天。炒短线的人，涨啊涨啊涨啊，涨不过三天，第四天就卖掉。我把这些都告诉你，人生越来越黑白了，这个月不不好玩了。股票的心电图告诉你了，你知道股市很好赚钱的，因为什么？因为99%的人都没有听过胡老师演讲，因为99%的人都不知道这个东西。什么叫心跳，他根本没有听过。他只知道买进买进，他根本不知道股票已经没有心跳了，已经生命结束了，这只股票。胡老师把点位告诉你们了，把买股票的方法都告诉你们了。今天非常谢谢大家！

Source/转贴/Extract/: cnstock.com
Publish date:04/05/11

Warren Buffett's Portfolio (as at 29.05.11)

Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.buffettbuys.com/
Publish date:29/05/11

What should I do in view of the Greek Debt problem?

May 27, 2011
European Commission's recent upward revision of the forecast on Greece's debt-to-GDP ratio has re-ignited sovereign debt woes in Europe, resulting in the recent market volatility. What should investors do in view of the current problem?
Author : Cheong Chee Kin

Key Points
On 13 May 2011, European Commission revised Greece’s debt-to-GDP ratio upwards, re-igniting Europe sovereign debt woes
Greece managed to slash spending in 2010, but due to 2009 debt revision, overall reduction fell short of target
This triggered a possibility of a halt in financing from EU and IMF, resulting in an ultimate default or debt restructuring by Greece
Market jitters appear justified as there is real risk of possible contagion
Key risk remains political as the actions taken by EU leaders will determine the stability of the monetary system
Being unable to price such risk, we prefer to trek with caution and focus on longer term prospects – valuations
Europe remains attractively priced based on a conservative fair PE ratio of 12.5X
Do not disregard Europe and maintain a well diversified portfolio
Over the past one week, global equity markets have been correcting moderately, with most falling between 2.0% to 4.0% in respective local currency terms. The culprit behind the recent moderation was Greece and the probability of them defaulting in their loans payment.

Good job, but not enough
Slightly more than one year ago, Greece was offered a EUR 110 Bn financial assistance package, a joint rescue package from the EU and the IMF. The rescue package was to provide the necessary financing to the Greek government as the open market had effectively shut their doors by demanding more than 15% to hold Greek bonds. See “Rescue package a done deal for Greece” for more information.

Since then, the Greek government has diligently reduced spending, a pre-requisite of the rescue package to ensure tranche disbursement of the agreed financing. As shown in Chart 1, Greece has managed to lower their “deficit as % of GDP” by 4.9%, the largest reduction among all other European nations and only slightly below their committed adjustment of 5.5%. Unfortunately, with Greece’s 2009 deficit being adjusted higher in subsequent revisions, the overall results fell short of the intended target.

Weakening debt figures sent market into jitters

On 13 May 2011, the European Commission revised their forecast of European nations’ gross debt-to-GDP ratio. Among which, the three weakest peripheral nations, namely Greece, Portugal and Ireland all saw significant upward revision of debt figures (See chart 2). The deteriorating estimates proved too much for investors to bear as profit taking and risk aversion saw global equity markets correcting.

All peripheral bonds were badly hit, particularly Greek debt. Over the shorter term, investors are worried that Greece may not meet required debt reduction figures to received funding from the rescue package. They will then be forced to turn to the open market for the required funding, an unrealistic task as the market currently demands 17.2% yield to hold their 5-year bond (as of 24 May 2011). With no channel for refinancing, the Greek government will be forced to default on their payment and restructure. Fears of a probable default has also sent the 5-year credit default swap for Greek bonds to a record high of 14.8%, with a 71.0% probability of a default and a recovery rate of 40% of par value (Bloomberg data as of 24 May 2011).

Possible Chain Reaction
Focusing on the core European nations as well as the weaker fringe economies under scrutiny, we evaluate the respective countries’ gross bank claims on foreign debt to determine their absolute exposure (in Bn EUR) as well as their relative position (as a % of total foreign debt). The data is presented in Table 1



While it has been quoted frequently that both Germany and France have large amount of Greek debt exposure (Germany: EUR 25.4 Bn, France: EUR 39.6 Bn), the proportion of Greek debt to total foreign debt held remains low and manageable (Germany: 1.1%, France: 1.7%). Should Greece default, resulting in a total loss (an extreme assumption of zero recovery rate), it is still likely that the core European nations may emerge unharmed, provided that the default happens systematically and in a controlled manner.

However, it is worrying that Portugal has a significant vested interest in both Greek and Irish debt (6.6% and 14.4% as a % of total foreign debt). Should either Greece or Ireland fall, it is likely that Portugal will follow suit. There may be a snowballing effect as the fall of Portugal may possibly drag Spain along. Spain has EUR 64.2 Bn of Portuguese debt exposure (which amounts to 6.2% of total foreign debt held by Spanish banks), a cost which Spain may not be able to bear given their current fundamental weakness unlike the core European nations.

Given the co-integration of financial systems within the European Union and the significance of Spain’s economy to Europe, the fall of Spain may prove too much for the EU to handle. As we can see in Chart 3, all three core European nations have large stakes in Spanish debt, with a subtotal of EUR 325.3 Bn among themselves. Hence, should contagion reach to Spain, the monetary system in Europe is likely to crack and could easily trigger a new global financial crisis. One key thing we need to highlight though is that this is an extreme worst case scenario and it is not what we believe will happen. While this may not be our base scenario, contagion worries remain real and market volatility does appear justified over the short term.

What should I do in view of the current problem?
We acknowledge the risks revolving around Europe. However all predictions on possible outcomes remain purely speculative. Political risk remains the key risk as the action taken by the EU leaders will determine the outcome of the sovereign debt crisis. We have witnessed the commitment and various extreme measures taken by the EU leaders to ensure continuity of the monetary union as well as the financial system. Given the lessons of the recent financial crisis, we have confidence that they are likely to act on the side of prudence. Moreover, if the result is an isolated credit event (no chained reaction), Europe is likely to emerge unscathed. Should it be a full blown contagion, global equity markets will be impacted as there is unlikely to be any decoupling given the massive global integration.


We hence keep our focus over the longer term and as seen in chart 4, consensus are expecting positive earnings growth for European companies over the next three years with earnings reaching a record high by end 2012 (data as at 24 May 2011). While we disregard short term volatility, we still trek with caution and compensate for Europe’s political risk by assigning a conservative fair PE of 12.5X (historically, the market trades at an average of 15.6X) for the market. Given the recent sell off, the Stoxx 600 index trades at an attractive forward PE ratio of 11.0X, 9.7X and 8.9X based on 2011, 2012 and 2013 estimated earnings.

Conclusion
Europe’s sovereign debt problem has been lingering for more than a year since Greece asked for financial assistance in May 2010. Since then, we have seen Ireland and Portugal doing the same and markets correct on several occasions due to heightened fears. However, markets have recovered and climbed further on improving global economic conditions and sustained corporate profitability. We urge investors to ignore short term volatility and focus on the longer term. We therefore propose some of the following actions that may help them weather market uncertainties.

Do not disregard Europe and maintain a well diversified portfolio
Prefer European equity funds which have an overweight in Germany
Why you should overweight Germany within Europe
Avoid speculating the market over the short term

Cheong Chee Kin is an analyst of iFAST Financial Pte Ltd.

Are you focusing on the right thing?

2011,May,20

Posteado por passiontrader a 00:28:11

A lot of people believe that trading is all about luck. You must be lucky to buy the correct stock at the correct time. You must be lucky to sell at the correct moment. Well, I do partially agree with them. Trading is not only about luck, but more importantly, in the management of risk and psychology. If you do not manage the 2 elements well, even if you are lucky 99% of the time, you will still end up with nothing in your pocket (worse still, may even need to sell your pants to pay for your losses!!).
Most people enter the market only thinking about how much they can win in their trades, how much they want to make, and even how to spend the money after winning, and most often than not, they find themselves facing disappointment after disappointment. There’s a saying that in order to be happy, focus on things that you can control and forget about those that you can’t. You can’t control how much money you can make in the stock market. You can’t control the market to rise or fall (unless you are the BIG boys, but then, if you are, I don’t think you will be reading my blog). Simple equation. Profit = Revenue - Cost. If you cannot control your revenue, then the only thing you can control is your cost (loss). Put your time in managing your losses. It’s something that you are capable of controlling. You are able to decide how much money you want to lose in every trades that you made. This doesn’t make sense, you may ask. Who on earth, having the right mind, will want to lose money? I agree, but life is never easy. I can bet you with my life that one day, losses will hit you hard on your face, and since it’s going to happen anyway, why not face and manage it? There’s just one problem. Are you able to put it into action?
Another thing to focus on is to learn to control your emotions. When the stock price falls to your stop loss, tell yourself that it’s ok because the loss is within my control. As long as I make my losses small, I’ll be able to make them back. If the stock price rises after you sell, tell yourself that I rather be stupid than to lose more money. It’s not easy, I know. I’ve been there, done that. It might take years for one to overcome such emotional stress, but it’s something that need to be done if you want to continue trading. Experts have suggested having a journal to write down all the trades that you’ve made, listing down the conditions why you buy or sell the stocks and how you feel when you do the trades. That will help you understand yourself better in future trading. I do that, and it really helps.
Focus on minimizing your losses and emotions. Stop focusing on how much you want to make in your trades. If you can manage your losses, your profits will take care of themselves. Focus on the right thing and you will see yourself making money in the years to come.

When stop loss doesn’t work

2011,May,25

Posteado por passiontrader a 22:35:35

As a trader, the most important thing when my trades goes against me, is to cut my loss as quickly as possible. For every trades that I put in, I will have an exit plan, both for profit and for loss. Stop loss is a must for me to control my losses. Is stop loss really useful? You bet it is, and it has help me prevent more losses in many occasions. But then, there are times when even having a stop loss might fail you.

On 12th May, I’ve bought IndoAgri at 2.02 because for the past few days, my chart shows a strong support at 2.01. I then put a stop loss at 1.99, knowing that if the price drops to that level, there’s a high probability that it will continue to fall. All went well for the week without the price breaking the 2.01 support. Then came 23 May. I switched on my computer at about 9 am and saw the stock price gap down from 2.04 to open at 1.96, a drop of 4%! It actually bypass my stop loss of 1.99!! I quickly setup my system to try to sell at the current price, only to find out that it had already drop to 1.88 in just 5 mins! Recovering from my shock, I finally managed to sell it at 1.88, and mind, am I happy to sell it, because for the next 5 hours, the stock plunged all the way to a low of 1.69 and closed for the day at 1.72.
There are a few lessons that I’ve learnt from this disaster.
1. On 10th May, company had issued a statement saying that one of their subsidiaries in Indonesia is going for an IPO in the Indonesia Stock Exchange. I know that this is going to affect the stock price of IndoAgri in Singapore. I should have wait till the confirmation is out and not take such a risky trade.
2. After the announcement is made on 10th May, there isn’t much movement in the stock price. This should have tell me that investors are not really excited about the news. It’s a clue that I did not notice at that time.
3. When my stop loss was not done due to the gap down, the next best thing to do was to sell as quickly as possible to protect my capital. It’s painful to lose money, yes I know, but it’s going to be more painful if I lose even more. Stock price gap down for a reason, and the reason is usually not a very good one.
Stop loss is a must for all traders, but it’s not a guarantee that you will not lose more because you have stop loss. The most important thing is your reaction when your stop loss is breached. What do you do when that happens? Do you have a plan for it? Have a contingency plan so that you know what to do when it happens. This, I guarantee, will save you a lot of money and stress.

STI - The Mid Day Report

Ronald K

 
STI rebounded after a massacre day on the 23rd May 2011. Today it tried to test the gap down area created between the 20th and 23th May 2011 with good healthy steady volume. It tells me that the bulls are in control for moment. Whatever selling that happened on 23rd May 2011 is now partially recovered by today's buying activity. Observed the blue circled area, I am cognizant of the possible selling in that region. When it reaches that region, I will then look to see how much selling emerge and what are the big sellers planning to do in order to corroborate my view of a possible correction. For those who have cut losses, shorted the market and expect it to tank lower after 23rd May are now deeply chagrined.

I have a strong sixth sense that the market is going to break through the circle blue resistance area based on the buying campaign that the big boys employed since mid February period.

Bob Doll: End of QE2 should be a non-event for investors

STOCK MARKETS WERE flat-to-down in the week ended May 13 as economic data continued to be mixed. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.3% to 12,596 and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 0.2% to 1,338. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite was up fractionally to 2,828. In other markets, commodity prices continued to fall and the US dollar moved higher. While BlackRock does not believe that the long-term secular uptrend in commodity prices has ended, we do think that the cooling effect could be in place for some time, which, it is hoped, will be a positive for both economic growth and stocks.

Data suggests that the global economy has slowed recently, but BlackRock believes it is still in the midst of a transition from recovery to self-sustaining expansion. Although several forward-looking indicators have worsened, this should not be a surprise since periodic setbacks are part of any economic recovery. In addition, we would argue that at least some of the recent weakness in growth levels can be attributed to temporary factors (including bad weather).

On balance, however, the economic positives outweigh the negatives. As last month’s US employment report showed, the labour market in the US is certainly healing and we have also started to see an uptick in household debt levels for the first time in quite a while, which (along with an easing in lending standards) helps support BlackRock’s view that the US economy is shifting into a self-sustaining mode. The reduction in energy prices that has occurred in recent weeks should also ease some of the concerns over inflation, which, in turn, should reduce the odds that we will see further tightening among the world’s central banks.

Weaker growth levels appear to have brought about some selling pressure in risk assets, as investors seem to be preparing for tighter monetary policies and the end of the US Federal Reserve’s QE2 bond-purchase programme. The impact of the impending end of the QE2 programme is among the most talkedabout topics among investors

Despite the widespread concern that the end of the Fed’s programme could derail the recovery and send markets into a significant correction, BlackRock thinks the impact will be minimal. There are significant differences between conditions today and when the Fed ended its first round of quantitative easing in the summer of 2010. Lending standards have eased noticeably since that time, and business and consumer loan markets have been growing. Also, in contrast to the time when QE came to an end and money growth was flat to negative, it is accelerating at present. This backdrop, combined with a general environment of better and more self-sustaining economic growth, suggests to us that the end of QE2 should essentially be a non-event.

An additional issue that has some investors worried is the ongoing debate over the US federal deficit and what will happen with the debt ceiling. There is a great deal of political theatre associated with these debates in Washington, which help highlight the uncertainty and potential risks, but we think there is little to no chance that the US would default on its debt. The actual resolution over the debt ceiling issue is likely to be messy but should result in some sort of compromise in which Democrats are forced to cut more spending than they want to and in which Republicans will have to make some concessions as well. The arguments over deficits and spending levels will certainly not end with the debt ceiling debate and investors should expect these issues to dominate the political conversation in the run-up to the 2012 elections.

Equity markets have held up pretty well in recent weeks in the face of some weaker economic data and we do not believe there is significant downside risk in the markets. Valuations remain attractive, with stocks trading at price-to-earnings ratios of around 14 times, compared with 2011 earnings estimates, and less than 13 times, compared with 2012 estimates. With corporate earnings continuing to grow, BlackRock believes these ratios help make stocks an attractive long-term investment when compared with bonds or cash. We would caution, however, that, given the current economic rough patch, stocks are likely to endure some additional sideways action for now

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:24/05/11

Get to know the auditors

The Star Online > Business
Saturday May 28, 2011

Get to know the auditors

OPTIMISTICALLY CAUTIOUS
By ERROL OH

There's a price to pay for taking audit quality for granted.

A LOT is being said about the audit profession these days. After all, why should the auditors be out of the line of sight in the frenzy of finger-pointing in the wake of the global financial crisis?

It's easy to assign blame on hindsight, but nevertheless, when large and seemingly invulnerable businesses have collapsed or have come close to oblivion as a result of large-scale mismanagement and fraud, it's safe to conclude that a lot of regulators and professionals have surely dropped the ball.

They have missed the warning signs and have failed to raise the alarm. There's no doubt that the auditors belong in this group.

In a consultation paper released last October, the European Commission (EC) observes: “While the role played (in the financial crisis) by banks, hedge funds, rating agencies, supervisors or central banks has been questioned and analysed in depth in many instances, limited attention has been given so far to how the audit function could be enhanced in order to contribute to increased financial stability.”

This so-called Green Paper, titled Audit Policy: Lessons from the Crisis, solicited responses to questions that were designed to help the EC figure out how to improve the European audit market. However, many of the issues raised are applicable in most other parts of the world.

Then, in January this year, the New York-based International Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (IAASB) came out with a thought piece called Audit Quality: An IAASB Perspective. This publication too sees a connection between the financial crisis and the auditors.

“The turbulent events of the global financial crisis have highlighted the critical importance of credible, high-quality financial reporting. They have also demonstrated the importance of considering the role of audit quality in the broader context of quality financial reporting.

Achieving quality financial reporting depends on the integrity of each of the links in the financial reporting supply chain,” wrote IAASB chairman Professor Arnold Schilder.

“As one of those links, the external audit plays a major role in supporting the quality of financial reporting around the world, whether in the context of the capital markets, the public sector or the private or non-public sector. It is an important part of the regulatory and supervisory infrastructure, and thus an activity of significant public interest.”

Naturally, the enforcement agencies sometimes have a more severe view on how the auditors have contributed to the crisis. Last December, the New York attorney general sued Ernst & Young, the longtime auditors of Lehman Brothers, whose application for bankruptcy protection in September 2008 is considered one of the triggers of the crisis. The lawsuit alleged that the Ernst & Young helped Lehman Brothers engage in a “massive accounting fraud”.

Another Big Four firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), also had to endure the harsh glare of publicity recently in the aftermath of a large corporation's downfall. In this case, the company is India's Satyam Computer Services, whose chairman confessed that the IT service provider's accounts had been falsified.

Last month, the United States' Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) announced a settled disciplinary order against five PricewaterhouseCoopers International firms based in India. Two of those firms were slapped with a US$1.5mil penalty.

This is in addition to a US$6mil penalty imposed by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against the five firms. The combined $7.5mil penalty imposed in this matter is the largest that the SEC and PCAOB have assessed against any registered foreign accounting firm.

On May 16, the IAASB issued a consultation paper titled Enhancing the Value of Auditor Reporting: Exploring Options for Change. “The purpose of this international consultation is to determine whether there are common views among key users of audited financial statements and other parties to the financial reporting process about the usefulness of auditor reporting, and to explore possible options to enhance the quality, relevance and value of auditor reporting,” the board explains.

Clearly, now is as good a time as any to have discussions on the importance of the work of auditors. The question is, are Malaysian investors participating in this dialogue? Going by how shareholders are generally passive about the appointment of auditors of listed companies, the answer can only be no.

For that matter, when was the last time we hear minority shareholders openly and vigorously questioning the management and board's choice of auditors? It's standard for an AGM agenda to include the re-appointment of the auditors and the authorisation of the directors to fix the auditors' remuneration. Year in and year out, the shareholders at the AGM will dutifully pass such resolutions on the assumption that the directors and the auditors are doing what they're supposed to be doing when it comes to ensuring audit quality.

The average minority shareholder of a listed company probably doesn't even know which firm audits the company. There's this dangerous perception that all auditors are more or less the same, and that it's not up to the investors to demand for audit quality.

There are several questions that shareholders (and investors, in general) should be asking about the auditors and their selection by the management.

How were the auditors picked, and how did the board satisfy itself that it had found the best firm for the job? Who is the partner of the firm who will oversee the audit and how is he qualified to handle that role? Do the audit fees reflect the extent of work required? Bear in mind that in audit, a bargain is not always a good thing. If the same firm has been the auditors for a long time, is there a need to consider a change? How do the auditors ensure independence?

Yes, these are rather dull and procedural areas, but isn't it better to tackle these questions now than after the breakdown of a company?

Executive editor Errol Oh has said this before and he'll say it again many people don't understand what is it that auditors really do.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:28/05/11

Springing to life in June

2011/05/28

The bulls most certainly have lost their mojo in May, but they will be inching for some payback time come next month.
May has been a lacklustre month. Many will be happy to see the back of this month, except for those who short stocks.

Malaysia allows investors to short some stocks, but the short market here is so thinly-traded. Often people don't bother to check if the stocks they are contemplating buying have been shorted.

"Shorts" make money when the price of the stock they are shorting goes down.

They could be making a killing this month, as statistics show equities often do not perform well in May.

Why is that so? I really don't know. It could be due to the same reason why the world is round, or that the Beatles are from Liverpool, I guess.

Coming back to serious business, statistics show that since the start of the 21 century, the benchmark FBM KLCI has been closing 60 per cent of the time lower in May from its end-April close.

In June, however, investors will spring to life, take a little bit more risks, which eventually helps drive prices upwards.

In this century alone, the FBM KLCI chart point shows there is a 72.77 per cent chance of the index trending higher in June, compared to May's closing value.

So, how bad has May been? Well, let's just put it this way.

Jerneh Asia Bhd, which is not a shelf company nor assetless, said it might pay anywhere between RM1.87 and RM2.52 a share dividend by as early as August. On top of that, the company is also proposing a capital repayment of between RM1.36 to RM1.41 a share.

If we were to take the low side of the dividend and capital repayment, Jerneh will be returning a minimum of RM3.23, while on the top end, the maximum will be RM3.93 a share.

With such an attractive proposal, one would have expected a boisterous reaction. Instead, the share price went up by 3 sen to RM3.22 on the trading day after the announcement was made. Hardly inspiring.

When the bear rules the roost, investors try to be more sensible, but come June, when markets are a bit more robust, the ground is fertile for optimism to overcome sensibilities.

Hence, even the wierdest, remotest piece of news within the market place could end up being a cash boon for the odd speculator.

So, brace yourself for a slew of research reports, new targets, fresh buys and impending earnings momentum to capture the limelight next month from some of the same analysts who missed all the major stockmarket meltdowns by a mile in recent times.

June could be a very active month and fruitful to the daily trader, provided of course, irritating mosquitoes like external factors don't spoil the party.

Hope for the best. Hope for the Dow Jones not to bite the dust. Hope for oil prices to find some common sense but most of all, hope that the average Malaysian purse string isn't put to the test.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/05/11

Personal Market View - Accumulate shares now

by ckchoy
Recently, the topics of Europe debt crisis are being brought back to table of news speculation, this of course has been causing market in downtrend correction mode. Greece further downgraded, rumours of debt crisis spreading to other richer countries like Italy, and so on. And now rumours of a high chance of US economy double dips are also surfaced.

If you believe smarts money are smart, then you will notice world indices are still holding well. Eg STI still above 3100 level now. We can make a mathematical measurement as such: STI hit a high around 3900 just before the sub-prime crisis started and hit a low at around 1500 in 2009 Mar. So if this debt crisis is really scarely and serious, smarts money would have left the market and do a reverse short and I would guess STI should be around in the mid of these high and low, ie average of 3900 and 1500 = 2600. But the fact is STI is still around 3100 level, well above 2600, hence I would guess most of the smarts money do not bet on double dips recession to occur.

Simple reasons why you should cut your cash holding: interest rate remains low, inflation high -> your cash value will become smaller and smaller.  We should manage our portfollio and reduce cash in hand and put money into commodities. The fact we can see is gold in high level.

What should we do now?
My advice:
For those conservative investors, you may wish to wait for the volume to come back first before jumping into the market. For now, you may start to do your homework, ie screen out your favourite stocks in term of FA and get ready to spot TA entry.
Currently, STI volume is around 1 - 1.3 Bil.  Wait for it to break up to 1.5Bil in a sustainable pace for a change of a better sentiment to start.
When volume reaches 2bil, then market is back to lively mode.
When volume reaches 2.5bil, then a broad bull market is here and most of the people including retails can make money easily.
But if you wait for the volume to start to pick up, you may wish the rock bottom prices. Give and take.

For those are more aggressive and confident, you should start to accumulate shares now. And for deeper pocket investors, you should buying into dips in this market condition. You will be rewarded handsomely.

What sectors, counters to look out for?
It really depends on your style and investment risk.
My suggestions:
Looking into property sectors eg Capital land and OUE and so on. Then those badly beaten down fundamental stocks like Cosco, YangJiZiang, Noble, IndoAgri and so on
Lastly, there is no sure win in stock markets, to protect your fund, you may wish to apply buy-cut-buy strategy ( buy-cut-buy ).  Many like to aim for 100% win in stock markets but in reality there is not a case. The profitable successful investors do not win all the time, they only make sure wins > loses.

Investing in inflationary times

KUALA LUMPUR: Emerging market asset-intensive equities, inflation-linkers as well as developed market government bonds are among the more effective hedges against global inflation, said Philip Poole, the London-based global head of macro and investment strategy at HSBC Global Asset Management.

For one, inflation had increased the nominal replacement cost of a company’s assets and this should support valuations of asset intensive companies while increasing pricing power in the cyclical sectors, he said.

“Commodity producers are a clear example of asset-intensive companies,” Poole told reporters at a media briefing yesterday.

“When inflation risks rise, buy low price-to-book value asset-intensive plays and low price-earnings or price-cashflow cyclicals. Russia remains our preferred equity market to play the energy and hard commodity theme.”

According to Poole, asset-intensive businesses include banks and real estate while cyclical sectors include tech, energy, materials and industrials.

In addition, Poole said investors should seek inflation protection through emerging market inflation-linkers as they are the only instruments, specifically designed to protect against inflation.

“Linkers have a number of advantages, “he said. “In contrast to nominal bonds, the market price of inflation-linked bonds respond to changes in real interest rates and provide protection when both nominal interest rates and inflation rise. Because of their different return characteristics, they also provide portfolio diversification for mixed equity and fixed-income portfolios.”

Inflation linkers are financial instruments where the rate of return is linked to the corresponding inflation rate to provide protection from real returns being eroded by inflation.

Poole said the yield on developed market government bonds will need to rise putting aside issues of whether inflation in the developed world will eventually move higher.

“The Fed [the US Federal Reserve] will cease to be a net purchaser of government debt once QE2 (the second Quantitative Easing programme) expires in June,” he said. “While the discussion has now kicked off, there is still no credible US fiscal adjustment package. There is also a key question of how the accumulated portfolios of central bank holdings of government debt will be reduced over time.”

Poole said the market’s base assumption seemed to be that central bank holdings of government debt will simply erode through a process of natural decay as they mature.

“But the reality is that the private sector will need to step up to refinance these maturing bonds,” he said.

Poole said inflation undermines the real value of investments and complicates planning for the future.

For example, he said, those holding cash would likely suffer from currency debasement as a result of inflation.

“Nominal government bonds, nominal corporate bonds and equities are also likely to suffer,” Poole said, adding that bonds with fixed rate returns will normally suffer a fall in their price while equities would also likely fail to provide much insurance.

He said equities generally underperformed bonds in the first 12 months after an inflation shock.

“This is particularly likely to be the case where the inflation shock is cost push rather than demand pull because profit margins would tend to get squeezed,” he said.

All in all, Poole said inflation risks were still mostly concentrated in the emerging market compared with the developed world, as negative output gaps in the latter would likely prevent the inflation shocks from food and fuel prices turning into an inflation process.

“The risks are biased to the upside,” he said. “The market expects inflation to roll over late in the year as based effects kick in. Notwithstanding Malaysia, Singapore and Brunei, some emerging market central banks have not done enough.”

This article appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, May 25, 2011.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgemalaysia.com
Publish date:25/05/11

Fears of Inflation and Slowing Growth Grip Investors

Fears of Inflation and Slowing Growth Grip Investors
By Gabriel Gan
For months already, the stock market has been feeding on inflation fears as China – the world’s growth engine – grapples with runaway inflation that seem too hard for the Chinese government to try and rein in.

This theme has been dominating the stock market since late year when China hiked interest rate for the first time in October. Since then, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) has retreated from a high of 3,186 points and has never looked back. It then hit a low of 2,661 just before the Chinese New Year and reached 3,067 only in April this year after the Japan earthquake.

The SSE is now trading below 2,900, at 2,870 points at the time of writing, heightening fears that it could test the support levels at 2,750 and 2,660 if the index does not cross 2,900 points soon.

As for the Straits Times Index (STI), the charts are almost a mirror-reflection of the SSE as well as the Hang Seng Index (HSI). This only goes to show the positive correlation between the three stock markets, so much so that Singapore’s very own General Election did precious little to influence the stock market.

Singapore, too, faces it own problems with inflation, as rising standards of living especially in the public housing sector has raised some concerns. Although Singapore does not manage its inflation by using interest rate as a tool, the Monetary Authority of Singapore manages inflation by allowing the Singapore Dollar to fluctuate against a basket of currencies that are not known to the public.

The strengthening Singapore Dollar versus the US Dollar is a very good example of the government trying to tame inflation by making imports cheaper, as the Greenback is widely used as a currency to facilitate trade. On the other hand, however, a strong Singapore Dollar will make our exports less competitive and more expensive for end-users in overseas markets.

Why Is Inflation So Domineering?
I have stated time and again that inflation is good only when an economy is in recession and trying to get out of it. When there is growth, there is inflation, hence this is good for the US especially when the US government is trying to engineer growth so as to a spur employment.

The US economy has yet to be faced with inflationary pressure although the higher cost of energy has caused consumer prices to increase while Ben Bernanke, in his statement, has commented that inflation is still not a problem adding that energy and commodity prices are likely to come down in the second-half of this year.

So, an economy with little or no inflation has pushed its stock market (Dow Jones Industrial Average – DJIA) up by 8.7% since the start of this year while one that faces serious inflationary threat is flat for the year. The SSE closed at 2,808 points on 31 December 2010 and closed at 2,872 points on 18 May.

The other Asian markets like Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore are all in negative territory for this year, signaling investors’ fear that inflation, which would ultimately result in higher interest rates, would drag down growth and, eventually, the economy.

Of the three blocs: US, European Union and Asia emerging economies, the US has yet to step into inflation territory while Europe has started to feel the strains of inflation. At the highest end of the inflation “hierarchy”, Asia and other emerging economies have already felt the strains beginning from late last year hence explaining why the stock markets have underperformed the mature markets in Europe and US.

When inflation becomes a problem, interest rate will rise and cost of living and doing business will also escalate. With so much “cheap money” in the financial system as a result of the US government’s policy, funds are constantly on the lookout for places to park their money hence Asia, with its high growth rate since 2010, have benefited from this trend.

At the end of 2010 when inflation became a problem for Asia, especially China, fund started to flow out and began to park their money in the financial markets of Europe and US where growth was coming back and inflation not yet a problem.

Should the US change its policy and start to hike interest rate or even put an end to further stimulus measures, it would drain money away from the financial system and spark off a round of selling.

Slowing Growth Or Temporary Blip?
China continues to grow but some segments of the economy are showing signs of slowing down. There have been conflicting signals from its economy but the main theme that occupies the minds of policymakers continues to be that of inflation.

Inflation in April at 5.3% was slightly off the 5.4% in March but this figure is still way off the official target of 4% for the full year. The economy still grew at 9.7% in the first quarter, which also means that it is still growing at a much faster rate than the 7% that Premier Wen has targeted.

With China’s economy still looking strong and inflation seemingly untamable, China looks set to proceed with its policy of gradually hiking rates, putting a cap on certain strategic items and raising banks’ reserve requirement.

China’s economy and stock market is faced with a dilemma: too strong a growth will invite more measures to cool the economy while slower growth will probably spark off fears that demand from China will slow and this will in turn drag down the entire global economy.

In the Europe and US, there are already signs and worries that the economic growth is tapering off, which has made the situation even more precarious now that worries about the PIIGS have resurfaced. Coincidentally, the slower economic growth is coupled with talks from the Obama Administration of lifting the debt ceiling so that the US government can borrow even more money to give the economy another boost in preparing for next year’s presidential election.

After a year of solid performance, both in the economy and the stock market, are we in for a “correction” on both fronts?

Much lies in China’s ability to tame inflation as well as the US government’s ability to persuade Congress in raising the debt ceiling. Until all these issues are addressed, the stock market is unlikely to rally or correct in a big way.

We can only wait for more signals and news from the China and US economies before deciding what to do. Inflation for China is still the key while a weakening US economy would be the last thing we want to hear.

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date:20/05/11

The Importance Of Cash Flow Analysis

By Louis Lee

As we embrace the full influx of financial reports for the earnings season of 1st quarter, it is pertinent to note that besides paying close attention to profit margins and management’s view of the company that you’re looking at, an important piece of the financial report called the “cash flow statement” should be given a closer look as well.

The importance of cash flow statement lies in the fact that it explains the changes in cash and gives insight to the company’s operating, investing and financial activities. Also, cash flow statement will unveil the company’s ability to generate cash to meet its short-term obligations, thereby assessing if company’s liquidity and solvency position is sound.

In this article, I will show you a brief example on assessing the health of the company using Cash Flow Analysis. Before I go forth with my explanation, a stark contrast has to be established whereby “High Profits Do Not Equate To Healthy Cash Flows.” Many quickly assume that having high profits generally mean that the company is doing well. Ironically, profit figures could be easily manipulated via unconventional ways such as “off balance sheet financing” or “window dressing”, thereby making profits look “good”.

In a nutshell, the cash flow statement is made up of 3 categories, namely operating activities, investing activities and financing activities.

Operating activities – These are revenue generating activities of the company, which normally includes cash receipts from sale of goods and services, cash payments to suppliers for goods and services and disposal gains and losses of fixed assets.

Investing activities – These are activities that involve the acquisition and selling of fixed assets (long termed assets like land, building or plant), cash receipts from the disposal of fixed assets and cash payments to acquire fixed assets.

Financing activities – These are activities, which change or impact the size and the composition of owners’ capital. They include cash proceeds from issuing shares, or debt and payment of dividends.

The cash flow statement presented below will entail explanations on the analysis on the health of company A.




From the above cash flow statement, even if Company A’s income statement reflects a profitable figure, Company A is not earning real profits but instead “creating” profits. This can be seen by its significant disposal of fixed assets and lowering of provision, thereby reflecting “poor quality” of profits.
Breaking it down further, red flags should strike you upon noticing the fact that net cash from operating activities is negative, indicating unsuccessful business operations in terms of cash earned. Despite improvement in cash flow where closing cash and cash equivalent albeit being negative narrowed, closer attention will enable you to see that said improvement was actually attributable to the huge sell off of its fixed assets (plant and freehold land and building).

Because purchasing and owning fixed assets such as plant and machinery will subject Company A to depreciation charges, thereby weighing down profits, Company A has replaced the disposed fixed assets with long term leases. Long-term leases are akin to “renting”, in which things like depreciation or maintenance of the asset are absorbed by the owner and not the lessee. However, long-term leases will subject Company A to future cash flow commitments, which could create further liquidity problems.

Insufficient cash flow also led to the company raising funds through the share issue, which was done to cover the deficit but Company A’s business still reflected an overdraft figure of $60 million due to its poor operations. This is in addition to the fact that it chose to pay out dividends of $125 million despite such performance.

Summing this piece up, it is pertinent to remember that high profits do not equate to healthy cash flows. It is often easy to manipulate profit or balance sheet figures by adopting policies which capitalise on the grey areas of accounting standards, but it is not as easy to do that on a cash flow statement. To further enhance the analysis, financial ratios could also be used hand in hand with the cash flow statement to better understand the story told by the numbers

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:24/05/11

S'pore raises 2011 growth forecast

by Rachel Adrienne Kelly
04:47 AM May 20, 2011
Singapore - Less than a month after it warned of dark clouds looming in the external environment, the Government yesterday revised upwards its outlook for the Singapore economy, forecasting growth of 5 to 7 per cent this year, up a full percentage point from its previous forecast of 4 to 6 per cent.

Mr Kwek Mean Luck, Deputy Secretary (Industry) at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), said that, with the manufacturing sector rebounding by 75 per cent on a sequential quarterly basis and the better-than-expected overall first-quarter numbers, 2011 is enjoying a "firm start" and "the economy is on track to deliver higher growth this year compared to what we earlier anticipated".

Analysts said the upward revision was expected after the MTI released stellar growth rates last month of 23.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, on a quarterly and year-on-year basis in its preliminary estimate for the first quarter, beating even the most bullish of private sector forecasts.

The MTI yesterday trimmed the first-quarter growth numbers to 22.5 per cent from the previous quarter and 8.3 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier.

Analysts called yesterday's full-year growth forecast upgrade conservative, saying that it reflected ongoing risks including the Euro zone debt crisis, tensions in the Middle East leading to high oil prices, and further fallout from the March 11 triple whammy of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan.

In the PAP's party political broadcast in the run-up to the May 7 General Election, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had flagged these risks as some of the "dark clouds on the horizon" among others, such as the US budget crisis and security threats in the region.

On the MTI's upgrade, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: "There are no surprises as the strong first-quarter number always carries through to the rest of the year."

The robust growth was spurred by the strength of the biomedical manufacturing cluster and a better-than-expected performance of the service industries.

DBS economist Irvin Seah said strong tourist arrivals in recent months have boosted retail, tourism and the other services segments.

He said: "Spearheaded by the gaming industry, the other services industry is set to take pole position as the fastest-growing segment this year."

Integrated resort operator Genting Singapore, for example, turned to a first-quarter profit of S$305 million in the three months ended March 31 as turnover almost tripled to S$923 million, driven in large part by high-rolling gamblers.

And Mr Seah added that fund flows into Singapore have been strong and will continue to power the financial services industry.

But in a stark reminder that the path ahead may not be all smooth, Japan's Cabinet Office yesterday confirmed that Asia's second largest economy was in recession, with gross domestic product shrinking 0.9 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, and 3.7 per cent in annualised terms.

HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said Singapore's growth is expected to ease in the near term "partly reflecting a base effect after the rapid sequential growth in Q1, but also as the impact of the elevated oil prices and the calamities in Japan are felt more in Q2."

"Still, barring any escalation of the unrest in the Middle East and an associated jump in oil prices, growth is expected to hold up well and come in at or possibly above potential growth," he added.

Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.todayonline.com/

Personal Market View - 五穷六绝七翻身?

五穷六绝七翻身
by ckchoy

五穷六绝七翻身是香港股市在1980年代至1990年代的一个都市传奇，是当时的经济分析员在参考过历年香港股市的升跌而得出的结论。结论指：股市在每逢5月的时候都会开始跌市，到了6月更会大跌，但到了7月，股市却会起死回生。
由于这个“预言”在发表之后数年都继续出现，使当时不少小股民都对这个传说深信不疑。不过，到了1990年代的中后期，开始有人以各种方式来“预防”这现象。这些“预防措施”包括在踏入3月之前，把手上的高价股票卖出，并于6月之时大手购入各种低价的优质股票，结果使这个升跌周期不断提早出现。(摘自百度百科)

返查数据，STI海峡时报指数在1月份从3190至3179，跌了11点
2月：3010，-169
3月：3105，+95
4月：3179，+74
5月至今3136，-43
既然1、2月跌，3、4月升，我们是否可以顺着次序预测5、6月跌？7、8月升？
我注意到1、2月份的交易量还好，有达到15至20亿以上的水平。但从3月开始，交易量就不断缩小。至今只维持在10亿上下，少得可怜。所以只要市场稳定，交易量逐步上升，市场就会随时重回活力。

Personal Market View - Low Vol Clips Market, Dump Big, Speculate Small, Invest Defensive

Low Vol Clips Market, Dump Big, Speculate Selective Small, Invest Defensive
by ckchoy

Tracing back my data, I still can see STI average volume in Jan 2011 is about 2 bil. But from Feb onwards the volume has been dropping and till now it maintains at low as 1 to 1.5 bil for about 3 months plus.  Volume in the market is important as without it, any upside is hardly held and unsustainable.

Switch to defensive
If you trade blue chips, you will have the feeling it goes lower and lower, the rebounds are short but the drops are fast and more sustained.
There are some signs that funds are getting into the defensive like defensive stocks and preference shares. If you are a preference shares investors, you will notice the prices are appreciating. Hence this is another sign investors are getting defensive.

Trade short term
But market will not die, there are still speculations around especially short term traders, day traders and brokers still need to make a living by trading, hence you can see once a while, selective small caps will be in played. The action is hardly broad based due to low liquidity.
Until we see volume comes back, may be it is wise to dump big caps and speculate selective(those may have news speculation) small caps. Goto defensive
Short term (1 - 3 weeks) - switch to defensive, speculate selective small caps. But no hurry to cut blue chips, can sell on strength for any rebounds.
Mid term ( 1 - 3 mths) - accumulate blue chips slowly, but must have the mindset to hold for few months.  When volume started to pick up, the sentiment for blue chips will be back.

STI 12-mth forward PE levels reduced nearly triple digits post 1Q results (DSBV)

We had highlighted in the past that STI tends to trade at levels between 12.4x (-1SD) and 14.6x (Ave) 12-mth forward PE levels. With the mid-year approaching, we use the blended FY11 and FY12 reading as our reference. This places a cap on the STI at 3343 over the next 2 months. The rise in STI is also expected to be gradual at a pace of about 100pts per quarter or 33pts per month. Meanwhile, the - 1SD level of 2843 should provide a floor for the STI in the event of an external shock that leads to a rise in risk aversion. Bottom line- Expect more bumpy rides with only modest net gains for the STI in the month(s) ahead.



More risks than catalysts post 1Q results
We maintain our view that equities lack catalysts to trend higher post 1Q results season as stocks enter the typically quiet months from May-July.

Firstly, the scorecard for the 1Q results season itself offered little or no upside triggers. Post 1Q reporting season, FY11F earnings have been cut by 4% and FY12F earnings tweaked down by 3%. Earnings growth for our DBSV basket of stocks is now 5.6% for FY11F and 13.4% for FY12F. STI 12- mth forward PE levels are reduced triple digits. Attention may turn to macro risks:

1. Supply disruption due to the Japan earthquake. We do not expect supply chain disruption for the high tech industry to surface in 1Q because inventory should last till May-June. However, there could be earnings downside in 2Q and beyond should this disruption persist in Japan, in turn affecting component supplies to the rest of the world. The automotive industry is also affected by this same issue.

2. US bond yields can start to rise when the second phase of US quantitative easing (QE2) ends in June. Rising bond yields will make equities look relatively more expensive, resulting in an outflow of funds from equities. The yield for the US 10-yr treasuries is currently at about 3.22%. Asian equities can easily stomach the current bond yield level but the pressure on equities will increase if the yield rises closer to 4%.

3. Finally, attention could return to the Europe’s debt woes and the weak economic outlook there. A survey by Bloomberg revealed that 85% of international investors now think that Greece will default on paying off its debt with majorities predicting the same fate for Portugal and Ireland. Portugal’s economy has slipped back into recession after 1Q11 GDP declined 0.7% q-oq on government spending cuts and higher taxes. According to Bloomberg, Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the euro region countries that needed €256bil (USD366bil) in emergency aid to avoid default may all see their debt loads exceed the size of their economies this year.

Yield stocks to outpace inflation
We think interest in yield plays can be rekindled because with Singapore’s 2011 CPI forecast of 4.2%, inflation remains a major concern and yield stocks offer a hedge against the uncertainty of rising inflation. The incentive to park some funds into yield plays increases given the modest growth rate for Singapore equities. Earnings growth for our DBSV basket of stocks is at a single digit 5.6% for FY11F and 13.4% for FY12F. We highlighted 8 stocks that offer at least 5% yield for FY11F last week: MobileOne, Mapletree Logistics Trust, CDL Hospitality Trust, Venture Corporation, Frasers Centrepoint Trust, Parkway Reit, ST Engineering, SIA Engineering. With a special dividend of 80cts and final dividend of 40cts (total $1.20), investors can also take a short-term view on SIA shares.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:16/05/11

Fundamentalists vs technicians

Business Times - 09 May 2011

Fundamentalists vs technicians

MINDY TAN elaborates on these two camps which represent very diverse investment strategies

IF you ever take a walk down Wall Street and encounter a heated argument with terms like 'tea leaf reading'or 'voodoo' being thrown around, take heart. The witch hunt has not left Salem, it is merely the vocal arguments of the fundamentalists and the technicians.

There are, broadly speaking, two camps on Wall Street: the fundamental analysts (fundamentalists) who boast investors like Warren Buffett and Jim Rogers, and technical analysts (technicians) like traders Mike Swanson and Martin Schwartz.

These two camps represent very diverse investment strategies that is only in recent years starting to receive (barely lukewarm) acceptance in either camp.

Fundamental analysis

The biggest part of fundamental analysis involves delving into the financial statements. This involves looking at revenue, expenses, assets, liabilities, and all other financial aspects of a company. Fundamentalists look at this information to gain insight into a company's future performance.

Analysts also look at less tangible factors - the quality of the company's board members and key executives, its brand-name recognition, proprietary technology etc.

The field of fundamental analysis is based on two main assumptions:

Share prices do not fully reflect a stock's real/intrinsic value.

In the long run, the stock market will reflect the fundamentals.

Is that all there is to it?

Xi Dong, assistant professor of finance, Insead, says: 'A fundamentally 'good' firm does not mean it is a good stock to invest in if the market already knows the firm is good. Research shows that good firms measured by fundamental variables do not necessarily outperform bad firms... The most difficult part for successful fundamental analysis is to find the hidden fundamental value of the stock that is temporarily not recognised by the rest of the market. This is very hard to achieve, especially repeatedly.'

Technical analysis

Technical analysis is the study of financial market action. The technician looks at price charts and technical indicators derived from price changes.

The field of technical analysis is based on three assumptions:

Technicians believe that the company's fundamentals, broader economic factors and market psychology are all priced into the stock, removing the need to consider these factors separately.

After a trend has been established, future price movement is unlikely to waver from the trend.

The concept that history tends to repeat itself is particularly prevalent in their analysis of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market psychology (ie market participants tend to react in the same way to similar market stimuli over time).

Prof Dong adds: 'There are a few stylised effects discovered by technical analysis that either robustly exist in history or may exist because of some rational/behavioural reasons. (For example), size is a phenomenon that small market cap firms outperform large market cap firms. Such effects are very strong and statistically robust. Some of them exist for a rational or a behavioural reason. For example, the reason for small cap outperforming large cap may come from the fact that investors overall are less willing to invest in small stocks possibly because they are riskier in terms of their future prospects. This preference causes a big firm to be valued higher than a small firm today (thus lowering holding-period return in the future) even when these two types of firms are expected to generate the same value in the future.'

Never the twain shall meet?

Commonly referred to as the oil and water of investment strategies, there are some striking differences between the two forms of analysis.

Charts vs financial statements. At its most basic level, technicians approach securities from the charts since they hold the view that a company's fundamentals are accounted for in the stock's price.

A fundamentalist on the other hand starts with financial statements, to determine a company's intrinsic value.

Time horizon. Fundamental analysis takes a long-term approach to analysing the market, often looking at data over a number of years. It can take a long time for a company's value to be reflected in the market, so when a fundamentalist estimates intrinsic value, a gain is not realised until the stock's market price rises to its 'correct value'.

Technicians, on the other hand, work with relatively shorter time frames. A day-trader for instance, would break down charts in spans of minutes, while a swing-trader would probably utilise time frames of days and months. Remember, the overall goal of technical analysis is finding patterns, and these avail themselves regardless of time frames.

Trading vs investing. In general, technical analysis is used for a trade, whereas fundamental analysis is used to make an investment. In trading, the appreciation of capital is the objective; if dividends are paid out, this is an added advantage. In contrast, investing looks more towards income over time. Income producers - eg dividends - are thus the prime motivation.

Advice from Buffett

Eleven years ago, Warren Buffett issued a parable to investors, filled with advice that still rings true today.

'Nothing sedates rationality like large doses of effortless money. After a heady experience of that kind, normally sensible people drift into behaviour akin to that of Cinderella at the ball. They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There's a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands.'

Now that you understand some of the fundamentals of equities trading, don't be afraid to get your feet wet. Just remember the three golden rules:

Only invest money you can spare
Manage greed and expectations effectively
Always do your research

Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:09/05/11

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2011

 Actual

Personal Market View - HSI 5/5/2011

After consecutive 6 days down, today HSI gapped down in the morning but managed to rebound in the afternoon. But upon near closing, funds look to cashing out. This may mean market has not stabilized yet.
This can be explained due to low volume. The play up in the early sessions is short lived and the desire to hold position is moderate low. Going to be a 7 days consecutive down for HSI
val: HK$67,461.45 Mil

Personal Market View - Small Cap Play

Small Cap Play
For those like to trade small cap counters - Strategies to play small cap.
momentum play - wait for it to break out with high volume, and enter decisively without bothering whether the price has been running up a lot, need to plan your stop limit before enter.
conservative play - for those cannot react fast and don't like to cut loss, prefer to wait for it to drop to its support line.

my watch list - entry price valid till next quarter results announcement ( around June to Aug 2011 )
BakerTech - good fundamental, cash rich, declared 3c dividend, today at top vol, prefer to wait for it to pull back if wanna punt, conservative play - wait below 0.4 as a good entry price
Dyna-mac - fundamental looks good, have been actively traded, in top vol almost everyday, speculative stock, recent low hit 0.58, conservative play wait below 0.6 as a good entry price.
UMS - fundamental looks good, current 0.57 is a good price, conservative play wait below 0.555 as a good entry price
XinRen - good fundamental, speculative stock, IPO price at 0.52. conservative play wait 0.42 - 0.44 as a good entry price
Sunvic - fundamental looks good, low P/E about 4
Gallant - speculative, recent high at 0.5. Can shoot up high and fast. Can punt but be careful. conservative play wait 0.4 - 0.42 as a good entry price

Personal Market View - Contrarian view on 'Sell in May'

Contrarian view on 'Sell in May'

Yesterday, 3/5 marked the first trading day in May and it looked to be a bad opening. Could it be a hint that 'Sell in May and go away' effect has started to take its effect?
We can search the statistic data for the stock market performance in May, but I'm not going to analyse this data here.  However, using last year, 2010 as a reference, the month of May was a down month.  If we looked back before May, ie Jan to Apr 2010, market performance was good, so it could be explained that correction happened in May to June 2010 was just an excuse for profit taking after a good market run-up. Looking at 2011, the market in Jan was slightly down, Feb - deeper down correction, Mar and Apr were about flat to slightly up. So if May is going to be a down month, it could be a good opportunity to buy on dip - to anticipate a recovery in June. If the market starts to stable early, we may see market starts to reverse up in mid of May.

There are many counters worth looking at now. Blue chips are the first batch to consider buying. But you have to buy with the mindset buying because of the value; not expecting to buy and hope for short term rebound.

Stocks that I'm looking at are like property, eg Capitaland, OUE etc. Other counters like F&N, Cosco.  (Surprisingly, today penny counters show their resilient strength and buck the downtrend, eg Dyna-mac, Gallant etc).
Except F&N ( which I think this counter is very resilient and only pull back slightly ), the rest are at bargain prices now.

If you wish to use TA to guide you for an entry price, you may be disappointed now as most of the charts show bearish trend and will ask you not to enter now. So, use FA to guide your entry decision.  Accumulate slowly. I'm waiting for OUE to go XD (12 May) before consider buying.  Capitaland will go XD on 9 May.

For a safer play, we may use volume analysis to guide us to see when market is going to rebound in a more sustainable pace.  STI has been trending in low volume about 1 to 1.5 bil. Wait for it to break 1.5 bil.  But I would guess when STI volume breaks above 1.5 bil, stock prices may have move up to certain level and you will miss the near bottom prices. So, if you wish to invest, just buy when your desired bargain prices hit you and ignore all the noises from TA and news. If you wish to trade the market, all those tools like TA, volume and noises are important and you have to follow the market trend.
So which style suit you? Give and take.

Personal Market View - Low Volume Continue Haunts Traders/brokers

Low Volume Continue Haunts Traders/brokers
by ckchoy

It has been a while (at least a month) where markets have been trading in low vol be it in Asia markets or US markets.
For Straits Times Index, the average volume has been in the range of 1 to 1.5 billion which is not a healthy range. For a healthy market, its volume should sustain above 2 billion. And for a happy market, its volume usually can sustain above 2.5 billion.
What does low vol mean? How does it affect the markets? What should we do? And what are the
strategies that we can apply to make use of this situation?
Usually during a low volume sentiment, market will be stuck in range bound. So don't be too greedy and don't be too reluctant to sell when seeing your stock is rising. Similarly, don't be too panic when seeing your stock is dropping.

Traders do not like low volume, because it usually brings down the chances for them to make money through speculation( short term investment ). This can be explained because low volume means that less follow-up price action to further push up and push down the prices be it a break-out play, MACD cut above, RSI or so on. This results TA's accuracy is reduced significantly.

However, statistic shows usually low vol market provides chances for true investors to enter the market. Especially prices become cheaper and cheaper. Some may argue don't catch the falling knife, I agree, this is especially important for short term traders to follow this rule. For true investors, they may view this is as a bottom fish opportunities (rather than viewed as catching the falling knife). However, there is no sure thing in the market. I will adopt buy-cut-buy strategy(refer to Buy-cut-buy vs buy-and-hold strategy
) to protect my capital and ensure a higher winning probability.

IndoAgri - reversal to downtrend after hitting 2.97 high on 4/1/2011.
There were 3 small rebounds on 31/1(2.48 to 2.66), 23/2(2.2 to 2.41) and 14/3(2.14 to 2.36). After the rebound, it resumed its downtrend. It can be noticed that the 3 rebounds are in the lower low and lower high trend -> which is a bearish trend for a trader's point of view.
However, it does not mean we should avoid the stock. For true investors who like to bottom fish, this may be a choice. However, I will adopt buy-cut-buy strategy(refer to Buy-cut-buy vs buy-and-hold strategy
).

Capitaland - reversal to downtrend after hitting 4.22 high on 7/10/2010. It marked a bottom at 3.08 on 17/3/2011 and from there it started to rebound. 3.08 could be the bottom for Capitaland. For those who wish to enter after a stock hit bottom, Capitaland could be a choice.

Of course there are many other stocks in my list. For details you can give me a call or drop me a mail and I will try to answer your questions within my knowledge and day-to-day market monitoring experience.