Lessons From The Penny Stock Crash

06 DECEMBER 2013

Lessons From The Penny Stock Crash
By Ong Qiuying and Choo Hao Xiang

It has been two months since the penny stock crash. Still, the market is reeling from the repercussions. This issue, Shares Investment looks into the potential red flags that could prompt second looks as well as ways to avoid getting oneself into a sticky situation.

From being termed laggards to being the stock market losers of the year. All in less than a year. That was how quick the tide had turned for penny stocks listed on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).

Top Gainers

Source: FactSet Research Systems Inc

The mood was totally different at the start of the year. Trading activity was centered on smaller cap issues. It goes without saying that the other factor behind private investors’ interest was the significant price appreciation.

But as the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. As penny stock trading continued to scale new heights, concerns began to set in. Subsequently, fences were established by trading firms to limit their exposures to the small cap section as early as March. Things then started to fall apart in October.

Two Months Back
On the morning of 4 October, shares of Asiasons Capital, Blumont Group and LionGold Corporation suffered heavy sell-downs. Within an hour of the start of the trading day, SGX placed these three counters, which already lost about 50 percent of their values, on suspension. Prior to this bloody episode, the equities market regulator queried Asiasons and Blumont on two occasions about irregularities in trading activities while LionGold received one query.

While these shares were back on the market the following trading day, they were tagged as designated securities by SGX. That did not help to break the falls. Market value of $3 billion was further wiped out in the next two days when trading resumed.



The massive plunge had a spillover effect on other penny stocks as well. WE Holdings, Innopac Holdings, ISDN Holdings and Mirach Energy, just to name a few, were among those affected.



Potential Red Flags
So are there signals that could help identify if one is getting into a sticky situation or is already in one? The answer to that is yes; there are some warning signs an investor can make use of to detect if something is amiss. While one cannot deny that when things are set in motion, it might be tough to stop, it is handy for investors to get familiar with the early signals, albeit fuzzy at first, which may present themselves.

1. Excessive Price Action
Investors should be wary of stocks that have climbed or plunged multiple folds within short time frames because while it may be a market phenomenon, it could also be individual out-of-norm behaviours that warrant a second look.

It is absolutely normal to be tempted to gravitate towards what others are investing in. However, it is important that investors justify if this herding instinct that is causing rallies or sell-offs are backed by substantiated fundamental evidence.

2. Trading Restrictions
If brokerage firms begins to put trading restrictions on certain stocks, investors should also be vigilant to pick up that there may be unusual trading for such stocks. If the brokerage firms are protecting themselves by limiting their clients’ exposure to the stocks, you should probably think twice as well.

3. Business And Management Changes
Staying up-to-date with your investments is essential as changes in the market environment could trigger or cause a change in the fate of the company’s health.

On an international level, economic downturns in major countries such as the US, China and Europe would have spillover effects onto the sentiment of the stock markets worldwide. Within the industry, developments such as the appearance of strong competitors and shifts in buyers’ habits could disrupt demand and supply dynamics in the sector. All these exert pressure on the company’s performance, hence, it is important that investors are sensitive to the changing market trends and note how it could impact their interests.

Most importantly, on a company level, investors should look out for dramatic changes in company’s strategies, whether they are planning to switch its business, foray into new industries or sell its business entirely. For example, when the company starts cutting prices, selling off core assets or show a deterioration in quality of products or services, it could be a sign that that the company is in trouble.

One should also be concerned if major shareholders begin offloading a substantial portion of their stakeholdings in the market out of the blue. The sudden departure of key executives or board directors could also signal bad news especially when the individual concerned has a reputation for being successful or as a strong, independent director.

4. SGX Queries
SGX makes queries when shares of companies experienced unusual trading activities such as sudden price swings and questions the transparency of the company disclosures. Interested buyers or shareholders of stocks that have been put under query or multiple queries should exercise caution in such situations as there could be market manipulation or an over- or under-reaction to the corporate developments in the company.

New Mechanism
Another move targeted to offer protection is the circuit-breaker mechanism that SGX proposed to bring into its armoury in June. The addition is reportedly said to come online early next year.



While there are no hard and fast rules about circuit breakers, now might very well be an appropriate time for exploration. After sieving through the different types of circuit breakers deployed by exchanges around the world, below are some further considerations that may improve efficiency.

1. Define price bands based on sector
2. Cancellation of trades executed beyond price bands during cooling-off periods
3. Varying cooling periods depending on a set of defined price bands

Selecting The Right Stock
Nonetheless, no matter what new regulations are meted out by the exchange, the onus is not just on the regulatory authorities. Investors themselves have to play their own part in safeguarding their own interests.

For investors, a good rule of thumb is to adopt a selective approach instead of chasing a trend. One should be familiar with the industry or the company that you wish to invest in simply because it will help in better understanding the workings of the company and what drives its growth.

Some factors to consider when selecting a stock to invest:

1. Financial Health
What you should look out for is a consistent growth in revenues and profits over a number of years. This shows that the company has a growing income while an increasing profit suggests that it has expanding margins or strong cost controls.

Investors should be careful when the company’s assets are difficult to value and tough to estimate and also identify if any drastic jumps or falls are one-off or recurring incidents.

The cash flow position is also important as you can find out if the company has the financial flexibility to take advantage of any business opportunities or if it is laden in debt and may require more bank borrowings, which will incur additional interest costs, or equity funding, which will lead to dilution.

Most importantly, look out for a dividend payout as it is a sign of good financial health, especially if the company has been paying an increasing dividend or a stable dividend yield. This also gives investors a cash return on top of the potential capital appreciation of the stock.

2. Valuation
Common valuation metrics can be employed by investors to help gauge if a stock is indeed worth buying. Some of the common ones are the price-to-earnings ratio, price-to-book ratio and discount to book value.

However, investors have to bear in mind that these metrics are not “one-size-fit-all”. Companies that are different in size, industry or at different stages in their market cycle will have different standards. Hence, understanding what is the average for the industry and the company is important and would help the investors sift out value buys.

3. Growth Prospects
Other than numbers, investors should also take a macro perspective on the industry and company outlook. How will the business evolve in the time horizon you wish to invest? Knowing how the company’s growth strategies and expansion plans fit into the global outlook of the industry would also help the investor identify if the company’s growth plans are intact.

Keep in mind that when you buy a stock, you are becoming a part owner of that company and the value of your investment will depend on the health of the business.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 06/12/13

Gabriel Gan: Emerging Markets Take A Tumble; The Tightening Starts Before It Even Begins

30 AUGUST 2013
Emerging Markets Take A Tumble; The Tightening Starts Before It Even Begins
By Gabriel Gan

It sure looked like the end of the world for investors in certain parts of the world as stock markets in emerging economies took a huge beating with some of these indices falling into bear market territory.

What are the emerging markets and who are they?

At the start of the new millennium, a group of countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – became the investors’ darling due to the high-growth nature of their economies. We now know that China has catapulted itself into the world’s number two economy in the world although we cannot ignore the economic might of the rest when combined.


Soon after, Indonesia joined the ranks of BRIC to form BRIIC while South Africa, too, joined in the party to be collectively termed BRIICS. These markets have enjoyed a spectacular bull run but were all hit when the US financial crisis in 2008 blunted the edge of these economies. Their fortunes were revived when Federal Reserve (Fed) chairman Ben Bernanke first introduced quantitative easing in November 2008 followed by another few more rounds of money-printing exercises to jumpstart the US economy.

The commodities super cycle that started with the growth of China took a big hit when the Chinese economy fought inflation in 2009 but demand for energy and resources soon made countries such as Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia and South Africa very rich as they rode on the cycle.

While quantitative easing helped to inflate financial assets in the US, it helped to keep alive prices of commodities although prices of precious metals and resources that are intrinsic to infrastructure development were under pressure from slowing economic growth.

We can safely assume that cheap money printed by the American printers helped to push up stock prices and also artificially fuelled speculative, not real, demand for commodities.

Jakarta Nosedives!
With this in mind, the smart investors have probably thought that cheap money used to jack up commodity prices will invariably cause prices of the same assets to plunge once the printers are decommissioned. Hence, we can probably explain why the Jakarta Composite Index fell from a high of 5,251 points on 21 May (Did Ben Bernanke say something back then?) to 3,967 points on 27 August. The 1,284 points plunge, or some 24.4 percent, firmly qualifies as a bear attack! The index has now fallen into bear market territory and may fall even more depending on how much cheap credit will be taken off the tables of the financial system.

To make matters worse, the weakening rupiah is reminiscent of 1997 when the collapse of the currency resulted in skyrocketing debt and inflation so much so that the rupiah was compared to the “banana note” in Malaya during World War II!

India’s Growth Days Over
Once touted as the next China, India’s heydays seem to be over after economic growth fell by half in merely two years from double-digit growth to a mere 5 percent in 2013. The falling rupee and rising inflation form a huge challenge that the government needs to tackle, and challenges for the currency and economy has translated into losses in the stock market.

A major triple-top formed in February, May and July this year has put the Sensex under a lot of pressure with the index now losing some 2,300 points from its peak of 20,351 points in July. It is desperately holding onto 18,000 points which, if failed, will probably see the index move towards 16,000 points. Should this happen, it can only mean that the rest of the Asian markets would have suffered the same fate caused by a mass exodus of funds from Asia to elsewhere.

Sabai, Sabai, No More!
The Thai economy is definitely not in such a mood after falling into a recession under the stewardship of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. The Thai economy fell 0.3 percent in the second quarter following a 1.7 percent contraction in the first quarter, largely reflective of weak domestic demand and the end of large-scale infrastructure projects that pump-primed the economy.

From a high of 1,649 points in May, the SET is now trading at 1,275 points – a huge 374 points away from the peak – falling into bear market territory.

Blame It On The Printing Machine?
There is a sense of hopelessness in some Asian markets – the “peripheral ones” – after the bloodbath. Why did some markets fall more than the others?

Asian economies that report slowing or negative growth have been punished very harshly while major markets like Hong Kong, China, Japan and Singapore have not been badly hit. It is likely that hot money, which is the result of cheap credit, has decided to take flight believing that Asia will be hit the hardest once cheap credit is no longer available and, worst still, when interest rates finally rise.

Most importantly, hot money will soon be returned to the Fed when stimulus measures are trimmed or ended in the future. This looks like the trend for the foreseeable future, confirming what I have been forecasting despite strengthening economic fundamentals in the US.

Investors are too reliant on cheap credit and money borrowed to fund speculative activities must soon be returned hence the flight from Asia.

At this point in time, investors do not want the economy to recover because it will spell a sooner end to Quantitative Easing III. We have arrived at a conclusion, and that is economic fundamentals are still not able to wean investors off the stimulus addiction.

Beware Of September!
The Hungry Ghost Festival has done it again! We failed to escape from the clutches of past fates when markets fell during the lunar seventh month!

If you think that we have had enough, think twice because we are in for a very volatile ride in September starting from 4 September when the US will announce job creations in the private sector for the month of August followed by the non-farm payroll and unemployment figures on 6 September. This will wreak havoc in the stock market as strong data will more or less confirm that the Fed will start tapering from 17 to 18 September during the FOMC meeting.

Even if the Fed does taper, investors will be trying to second-guess the market by speculating on how much of the US$85 billion will be reduced. Investors are now looking at the Fed to trim to US$70 billion a month. Anything more, the stock market drops and anything less will still lead to investors worrying about when the next tapering will come and when the complete exit will arrive.

Lots of things to worry about so sit tight.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 30/08/13

曾淵滄專欄 21.08.13：大戶角力製造波幅

恒指昨早11時後突然大跌，也不知道是甚麼原因。上網查一查內地股市，上午表現得還不太差，一度出現升勢；午後下跌，相信是反過來受港股大跌所影響。

既然不知道為甚麼下跌，不妨聽一聽市場裏傳來的聲音。有一種分析認為，是多個亞洲新興國家的貨幣幣值及股市正在大幅下跌，有人提到印尼、印度……更有人將之形容為新的亞洲金融風暴，情況有如1997年，然後是大量的黑天鵝論。

印尼、印度股市下跌、貨幣幣值下跌不是發生於昨日，而是發生了好一段日子，為甚麼會突然成為昨日跌市的理由？莫名其妙。


經濟問題未及97
我認為，昨日股市突然下跌，真正的理由是市場淡靜、大戶無所事事，就在期指市場角力，製造一些波幅。若連波幅也沒有，股市就更加一池死水，散戶全離場了。

近年來，多個新興國家的經濟都出問題，而且不局限於亞洲，也包括南美洲、澳洲。最近澳洲國會選舉，經濟衰退成了執政黨與反對黨最主要的辯論課題，辯論過程中，中國的經濟放緩被扯進去，成了澳洲選舉的辯論內容，理由是澳洲經濟衰退的真正原因，就是中國經濟放緩。印尼、印度、南美洲也同樣出產大量的礦產及農業經濟作物，如棉花，中國的需求一下降，全都出了問題。

不過，問題應該沒有1997年那麼嚴重。97時，亞洲多個國家經濟上已問題多多，但是，貨幣幣值依然與美元掛鈎，才引起索羅斯這群大鱷的狙擊。現在，這些新興國都學了經濟，經濟出問題，就任由貨幣貶值，大鱷就沒有狙擊的誘因。

曾淵滄
大學教授

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 蘋果日報 
Publish date: 21/08/13

Gabriel Gan : Attempting To Grasp A Whole New World Without Cheap Money!

 28 JUNE 2013

Attempting To Grasp A Whole New World Without Cheap Money!
By Gabriel Gan

A fortnight ago, we witnessed the worse correction in more than a year after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke breathed words of a gradual withdrawal of stimulus measures. Already so used to life in the stock market with cheap money, investors sold shares, bonds and gold so much so that buyers who had missed the entire rally refused to bargain hunt.

When Bernanke came out to utter comforting words, the stock markets rallied believing that it was a miscommunication that had led to the selloff. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) attempted a rally from below 15,000 to as high as 15,340 before falling again when Ben Bernanke, in his post-FOMC meeting media conference, confirmed that the Fed would reduce the amount of bond-buying this year followed by a total withdrawal of Quantitative Easing (QE) III by mid of 2014 should the US unemployment figure hit 7 percent.


This rattled investors into selling as the DJIA plunged from a high of more than 15,300 before the Fed meeting to as low as 14,551 in a matter of just three trading days. The 800-point swing is still considered mild when compared to other markets, especially China and Hong Kong.

From peak to trough in the month of June alone, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) lost almost 450 points – a whopping 19.4 percent – and would have fallen into the bear market if not for the strong intra-day rebound on 25 June when it recovered from 100 points down to close at 1,959! If we were to take the closing of 2,421 points on 18 February and compare it against the close on 26 June, then the index is precariously close to a bear market. If the index breaks 1,936 points, then the index would have lost 20 percent from the high of 2,421 points.

As for Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index (HSI) reached a high of 23,685 on 4 February and fell all the way to 19,855 on 25 June, representing a monstrous 3,830-point drop or 16.1 percent. From the recent closing high of 23,493 on 20 May, the index fell 3,053 points to close at 20,440 on 27 June. While the HSI has yet to fall into bear market territory, it is also dangerously close to that level despite a rebound that started on 25 June.

Why The Correction?

There are two main factors that contributed to the correction: Firstly, the world is very used to government intervention in the financial markets so much so that we can safely attribute the 4 1/2 year Bull Run to an unprecedented amount of money being printed by the US central bank.

A lot of money has been printed but it does not seem that much has gone to help the economy outside of the financial markets. Money that has been printed has been used to buy up bonds, stocks but precious little has been invested in the real economy. The main aim of the stimulus measures has been to artificially deflate interest rates so that credit is available cheaply to those who need it although those who really need it do not have access to such funds. When so much money is in the financial system, funds are then parked in assets from silver to gold to stocks and bonds. Investors who are tired of the miserable returns on risk-free deposits are forced to seek higher returns via riskier assets. The appetite for risks has helped to fuel a Bull Run despite the economy not doing spectacularly well.

This has changed, and will change very soon after Ben Bernanke’s latest comments. The Fed chief has finally decided to stop serving alcohol and investors who have been in a drunken stupor all these while have finally sobered up and realised that we are facing a whole new world.

This whole new world has been made worse by the fact that China – the fastest-growing economy in the world for the last decade – will no longer be growing at the same pace and may not even grow at the pace anticipated by China’s government.

The sudden credit crunch in China has led to a sharp rise in the interbank borrowing rate, pushing up interest rate amid an environment where the government continues – and will continue – to drain off money supply in the financial system after learning its lesson in the previous stimulus exercise whereby inflation shot to the sky.

The key reason for the stock market’s weak performance was largely due to the fact that investors had earlier expected the new leaders to boost the economy but, instead of meeting expectations, Premier Li Keqiang decided to restructure the economy by relying less on exports, boost domestic consumption and wean the economy off its reliance on readily available credit that proved to be detrimental to the economy in the long run.

Now that US is readying itself for life without stimulus and China adapting to a whole new world of economic restructuring and slower growth, it will take the wind out of the sails of the stock market for quite a while until investors adapt to the paradigm shift. This paradigm shift, while painful in the short-term, is actually a positive for the global economy as a whole because the world cannot be surviving more printed money and ballooning national debts.

When the real economy is ready to stand on its own feet without crutches provided by stimulus measures, it will ultimately benefit the stock market. This is the time when economic growth is real and solid, backed by fundamentals and probably more consistent with reality.

Key Supports And Resistances

If we were to look at the DJIA, it does not seem that the impending end of QE III has done much harm. After falling to a low of 14,551 – the new support level for the DJIA in the near-term – the index is now at 15,024 points. It has met a minor resistance at the 9-day moving average and unless the index can move above 15,300, investors should not bet on the DJIA moving into a new uptrend.

While the US market looks rather strong despite it being the “epicenter of the earthquake”, Asian markets have suffered the most

For China and Hong Kong, they almost fell into bear market territory but are now enjoying a good spell after the People’s Bank of China acted to ease the credit crunch by injecting liquidity into areas where money is needed. It is also helped by certain Fed officials who are quick to downplay Bernanke’s earlier stance that QE III will be reduced by this year and put to a stop by next year. These officials quickly reassured that Bernanke’s statement was meant to say that QE III will end only if the economy was strong enough to stand on its own.

The HSI has staged a V-shaped rebound and continues to rise on 28 June after the DJIA staged a triple-digit rebound. The index may face some resistance at between 21,000-21,200 after rallying for a couple of days and owing to the weak sentiment. Support remains at the recent low of 19,426 points.

The weakest rebound took place in Singapore with the STI rising very little from its recent low and the overall market weak. It is unlikely that the index can go above the recent high of 3,235, as it is already struggling to overcome the resistance zone at between 3,150 to 3,180.

It will take time for the world to get used to slower growth and, most importantly, life without a stimulus measure. We cannot be sure that once the stimulus measures have been withdrawn, the economy can stand on its own but, as already mentioned, it is for the long-term good.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 28/06/13

Are You Investing In The Right Trust?

31 MAY 2013
Are You Investing In The Right Trust?
By Ong Qiuying and Choo Hao Xiang

Are You Investing In The Right Trust?

The hunt for yield has spurred a bull market in Singapore-listed trusts. While trusts have generally been perceived to be stable yield plays, share price performances of business trusts had not able to keep pace with that of its other akin investment vehicle – real estate investment trust. Are investors of such trust in danger of being left behind?

Roughly one decade into the introduction of the first trust, numerous trusts have found their way onto the Singapore Exchange. Looking at the past 12 months, trusts made up a quarter of 23 new listings on the local bourse.


The intriguing fact about these new trust listings is that majority is in the form of a business trust structure. Despite the lacklustre performance of business trusts since listing, investors’ enthusiasm has not faded as seen in the recent public tranche offered by Croesus Retail Trust that was 48.8 times subscribed.

Are All Trusts The Same?
Established for the purpose of acquiring properties, business trusts and real estate investment trusts (REITs) are essentially cash-generating assets. The vehicle, which is created by trust deed, provides investors the chance to own a portion of the trust’s assets, be it infrastructure assets or retail malls, which would otherwise be inaccessible to retail investors.

The reason behind such a setup instead of a company lies in the capital intensive nature of the business and the expertise required to manage the assets. It also allows companies which pump assets into the trust to realise their investments and obtain recurring income such as management fees concurrently.

Another similar feature is the investment return. Apart from capital appreciation, returns from such investments would typically be accompanied by regular distributions. Unlike a company, these distributions are derived from cash flows rather than accounting profits.

Despite the similarities, business trusts are structurally different from REITs, which can be seen in the table below. Because of these differences, REITs and business trusts can have very different levels of risks.




To put the case in point, the gearing of a business trust can go beyond 100 percent. For both business trust and REIT that provide similar returns, a REIT with a gearing limit of 35 percent would be of a lower risk. Nonetheless, a high gearing level is not necessarily bad as the trust could expand much faster with more readily available funds. However, a business trust may also surprise their unitholders with changes to their payout in times of difficulties as it does not have a minimum payout policy like the REITs. Hence, it ultimately boils down to the risk tolerance of the investor and the individual’s investment goals.

So, REIT Or Business Trust?
This is perhaps the biggest question hanging over our heads. With yield plays the hot favourite in this low interest rate and high liquidity environment, much of the attention have been on REITs instead of the lesser known business trusts. It is not difficult to wonder why, given the REITs’ outstanding performance and business trusts’ lacklustre showing thus far. From the start of this year till 23 May, REITs recorded an average of 11.8 percent gains in share price while business trusts averaged 4.3 percent and stapled securities at 2.2 percent.

However, as newly-listed business trust Croesus Retail Trust cruised to post double-digit gains on its debut, one has got to wonder if the tide has turned for business trusts that were once surrounded by skepticism.

Performance Table On Business Trusts And REITs

Source: Compiled from information on the Singapore Exchange

*Yield for the period from company’s listing to its financial year end
Average computation excludes newly listed trusts in 2012 and 2013

Notably, there are also instances where business trusts outperform the REITs. To be specific, we take a closer look into Perennial China Retail Trust (PCRT) and CapitaRetail China Trust (CRCT), which are both operating in the China retail market. PCRT has recorded price gains of 6.2 percent as at 23 May and a dividend yield of 6.4 percent while CRCT’s shares have fallen by 3 percent over the same period with dividend yield of close to 6 percent. In this comparison, the outperformance by PCRT may be attributed to investors factoring in the potential growth PCRT have as it undertakes development properties while existing development properties turn income-producing.

That said, one noteworthy point is that the performance of a trust is largely dependent on its underlying business, quality of assets and operating business environment. Making references from the performance table, we can see the varying share price performances within business trusts that are grouped under real estate related and non-real estate related. The business trusts that are real estate related beat those that are non-real estate related hands down with a capital gain of 6.9 percent compared to 2.5 percent for the latter.

If you take a closer look at the trusts listed under the non-real estate related segment, you would also realise that they can be broadly classified as defensive or cyclical assets. And that is where a pattern emerges. Defensive stocks that are backed by infrastructure or healthcare assets are faring well while the same cannot be said about cyclical stocks. With the exception of Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, shipping trusts sank into negative territories, albeit the impact were mitigated by decent yields.

In addition to this distinctive classification, investors should recognise that the capital structure as well as business strategy employed play a huge part in determining whether expansion is an aim for the trust in the interim.

With that in mind, it pays to understand what each trust offer in terms of growth and yield. While the wider range of assets a business trust can hold may leave investors spoilt for choice, the need to take a selective approach still stands.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 31/05/13

颜子伟:更多危险信号出现：市场是否只会微跌或重大调整将会出现？

更多危险信号出现：市场是否只会微跌或重大调整将会出现？
文： 颜子伟 （译：麦美莹） 2013年05月31日 展望
所有一切皆因日经225指数而起，对吗？

对于那些被套住的投资者来说，自5月23日以来，日经225指数的暴跌成为了市场热话。自从日本经济掉入失落的十年后，许多投资者可能对日本股市已经避之则吉，但人们近日对它的关注比海啸摧毁核电站的消息来得更甚。

日本新一轮的牛市始于去年11月，它从11月16日的8,619点低位一直升高至5月23日的15,942点高位，在短短的6个半月里，升幅足足达到84.5%！


当自民党去年底重新执政前，市场预期自民党会取得胜利已经把日元推至新低及把股市推至2012年新高。但直至首相安倍晋三前所未有地向经济大量注资，同时让日元走低来刺激其出口后，好戏才正式上演。

无论如何，虽然央行请了一位支持刺激措施的行长，但他也像伯南克最初执掌联储局的时候一样，步步维艰。日本央行行长黑田东彦似乎在维持刺激政策及保持低利率的同时，与投资市场有点脱节，令日本政府债券的价格走低及获益率上升。

投资者开始质问刺激措施是否确实能够刺激日本经济，但不会令借贷成本升高。这样庞大的刺激措施存在着很大的疑问，因此，如果一旦计划未能奏效，效果不堪设想。

5月23日的暴跌虽然惊人，但它只占了从11月至今的8,000多点升幅的一小部份。可是，从图表来看，1,143点的跌幅是一个重要的逆转信号，因为日经225指数从走高变为狂跌。从15,942点高位跌至5月30日的13,555点低位，跌幅高达15%， 因此它不大可能在短时间内收复失地。

我们从每日图表中看到超卖情况，而每周图表显示的跌势更强。如果13,000 点失守，那么日经指数的升势就会终结。危险信号在5月30日增强，因为日经指数再蒙受737点跌幅，以13,589点收盘，并拖累亚洲其他股市收低。

只是微跌?
日经指数在5月23日狂跌时，大部份股市也相继下挫，但很快便回弹，尽管日经指数在接下来的几天继续下跌。当日经指数在5月30日下跌737点或5.5%时，恒生指数只下跌了70点，而上海综合指数仅跌了7点。欧洲及美国市场一点也没有受到日经指数的5.5%跌幅影响 ，因为它们在走高。

新加坡海峡时报指数则曾经一度跌超过60点至3,303点，但全日只下跌了31点，以3,336点收盘。更重要是海指在3,320点的关键支持位并没有失守，而在接近收盘时，海指从接近3,300点的心理支持位回弹。海指的跌幅不大全赖银行股的支持。大华银行(UOB)曾一度下跌0.77元至20.51元，但它之后回弹，收盘时只下跌了0.08元，报21.20元。同样地，星展集团(DBS)的股价曾一度下跌0.35元至16.77元，但收盘时只下跌了0.15元，报16.97元。

如果我们从整个抛售局面来看，我们可以说日本是始作俑者，因此目前的调整可以被视为轻微跌幅，但也可以被视为期待已久的急需调整。

警告信号!
从最近的经济数据来看，中国经济可能会即将出现另一次的放缓。制造业不景气；价格下滑；而中国政府不打算作出任何干预，不像前几年那样推出庞大的刺激措施。

新领导层表示不会采取大刀阔斧措施来刺激经济无疑令投资者感到失望，但它强调会把重点放在重组经济上，并会放弃上一届领导曾坚守的7.5%增长目标，而是把新目标定在7%。他们也会以国内消费作为新增长动力来替代出口。

中国的转变意味着传统的领域像房地产业(中国的房屋价格依然高企)将会继续受到监控，而一直备受压力的商品领域不大可能获得解救。从来宝集团(Noble Group)、奥兰国际(Olam International)、印多福农业(Indofood Agri Resources)及其他与商品相关股只的表现来看，便可见一斑。

随着中国经济在没有刺激措施推动下很可能放缓，而欧洲依然陷于衰退中，后者拒绝放弃紧缩措施(但已经有人提出有关要求)， 环球的唯一增长动力依然是来自美国，因为在推出第三轮刺激措施后，劳工及房屋市场已经好转。基本上，这意味着美国投资者已经十分依赖刺激措施，甚至如果一旦缺少了政府的援助金，生活将成问题，而美国经济的复苏之路也会就此完结！

这刚好就是令投资者恐慌，决定抛售股票的原因，事实上，刺激措施令金融系统充斥资金，导致借贷成本大幅减低。股市全面上升及经济复苏主要是因为热钱充斥市场，因此如果没有热钱流入，形势将会急转直下。

当联储局在上一次会议开始讨论刺激措施时，他们实际上是讨论增加或减少回购债券的数目(他们在之前的会议中从未有这样讨论过)，意味着联储局所用的言辞改变了一点。当然，站在联储局的立场(尤其是伯南克)，他们为了要掩盖减少回购债券的可能性，而把增加的字眼也包含在内，但只是想想可能会缩减刺激措施，其实已经令投资者恐慌不已。

现在讨论全面取消刺激措施当然言之过早，因为目前的失业率仍很高。但当失业率下跌至7%，这个可能性会增加，而如果失业率跌至7%之下，这差不多肯定成事。

精明的投资者开始抛售10年期国库券一点也不令人感到意外。尽管联储局大量买入，这个投资工具的获益率升至一年来高位。这意味着投资者预期利率将会上升！我们不可以忽略这个趋势，就好像我们不可以忽略美元一直在走高，这与大量印钞及低利率会令美元贬值的日子有点背道而驰。

互相抵触的信号?
目前，我们差不多可以肯定近期的升势是因为大量热钱从市场流出流入所致，这说明了为何日经指数会大起大落。

我们可以埋怨日本出现的调整导致其他所有市场都出现反射作用。但只要热钱继续流入而中国及美国的经济继续稳守，市场不大可能出现崩溃，但这个情况只适用于未来3至4个月。

在第三季之后，有关美国刺激措施及利率的情况将会较为明朗。目前，我们需要留意债券获益率及美元的走势。甚至美国抵押利率从上个星期起提高，也会在长期上带来不利影响。


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 31/05/13

新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)

新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)

文： IPO先生 （译：麦美莹） 

2013年05月22日

  新股

亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust, 以下简称APTT)终于首次公开售股，招股价为0.97元（是0.92元至1.00元献售价的中位数）。你可以点击此处查看招股书。公开售股的截止日期是5月27日正午，并在5月29日下午2时开始交易。

售股详情如下：配售股为8亿6,600万个单位； 公开售股为7,000万个单位。市值(基于招股价)大约为14亿元。

一份新闻报告提到，这只股大约被3倍超额认购，由于这只股的规模很大，有这样的成绩相当不错。APTT总共发行9亿3,616万4,086个单位(每单位为0.97元)，而如果它实行超额配售的期权，总共发行的单位为10亿零800万4,086个单位。这是在亚洲上市的首个付费电视业务信托。坦白说，新加坡的业务信托制度应记一功，否则APTT也不能够在此上市，因为其他地方的规定是需要以盈利派作股息而不容许以现金流派作股息。因此，重资产(asset heavy)公司可以通过商业信托(还记得和记港口控股信托吗？)形式释放它们的资产。

APTT计划把其可分配现金流全部(100%)派作股息，而其业务是拥有、经营及维持在台湾、香港、日本及新加坡的管理完善及有钱赚的付费电视及宽频业务。因此，技术上而言，APTT有可能收购新加坡星和(Starhub)的付费电视及宽频服务(我不是说这将会发生)。

台湾宽频通讯集团

台湾宽频通讯集团(Taiwan Broadband Communications Group，以下简称“TBC”)是APTT即将收购的种子资产。TBC是台湾第三大电缆电视商家，截至2012年12月拥有15%的市场份额。TBC提供3种服务，包括：基本电缆电视；高级数码电缆电视；宽频服务。

特许经营区域及订户

截至2012年12月31日，TBC 拥有75万1,000名基本电缆电视用户；11万零324名高级用户及17万5,000名宽频用户。公司并没有提供“三合一服务”，即把手机、宽频及电缆电视捆绑在一起(就好像星和提供的配套服务)，但宽频与电缆电视“二合一服务”是有的。鉴于基础设施是属于“沉没成本(sunk cost)”，因此，公司的边际收益(marginal revenue)将会随着用户数目的增加而提高。好消息是公司的用户数目不断增加，但不大好的消息是每用户平均收入(ARPU)一直下跌。请参考以下的图表。

信托的企业架构

这个信托的内部组织并不简单，而我个人不大喜欢复杂的架构，但可能这是为了税项的问题。

资产负债表

IPO 投资者所付出的代价主要是支付22亿元的无形资产(intangible asset)。从招股书得悉，所谓的无形资产就是用来经营电缆电视的牌照，后者可以一个小数目每9年更新一次，而先决条件是公司没有违反牌照内的条件。这项资产不含摊销费用，因为它的有效期“直到永远”。IPO投资者必须对你所买的无形资产倍加留意，因为它是你取得回报的“承诺”。

财务表现

公司的财务表现并不乐观，因为它每年都一直在亏本。无论如何，公司每年都在派发股息，2012年所派发的款项达到8,900万元。如果我们把折旧及利息开支排除在外，它很可能是一家产生现金流的公司。以下是它的预估损益表。

每股盈利预估为0.0186元，意味着本益比达到可观的50倍。公司也对FY13及FY14作出预估，让投资者可以放心。

FY14 预估比较高，因为少了接近7,200万元的额外成本(extraordinary cost)，请看以下的现金流预估(cash flow projection)。

以下图表显示分派给单位持有者的对账。

企业价值/息税折旧及摊销前盈利(EV/EBITDA)

利用2012年预估资产负债表及损益表来计算，我依然不明白为何这家公司的本益比达到13倍这么高，我不大肯定是否算错了。看起来，这家公司是蛮贵的，因考虑到它主要是包含无形资产及很多银行债务。当利率一旦升高时，派息将会大受影响。

基石投资者
基石投资者占了公司大约32%股权，其中包括了传统基金 (保诚及利安资金) 及对冲基金 (Neuberger Berman、OZ Master Fund (与STX OSV 或 Vard相同)) 及量子基金(Soros Family)。我不确定是否我错过了一些只有这些基金才看到的优点。

派息收益率

APTT 的FY13及FY14预估派息率分别为7.5% 及 8.5% 。公司将会一年派息两次，第一次派息期是从上市当天至2013年6月30日 ，而在到期后的100天内，投资者将获派息。

我的看法
IPO投资者其实是从麦格理基建(Macquarie International infrastructure Fund，以下简称MIIF)的股东手中买入这些单位。MIIF目前是在新交所上市的公司并逐步把业务结束，董事局已决定把其所有余下资产出售及把基金退回给股东。

我并没有追踪MIIF，所以我不觉得它与保荐商麦格理(Macquarie)相关有什么值得“骄傲”，就是因为他们，MIIF的股东才落得如此下场。MIIF自从上市后表现一直落后。我并没有买MIIF的股票。MIIF的股东在问，他们应该拿现金或者是APPT的单位，而我反问他们，你们还愿意继续与这个保荐商打交道吗或者是想趁这个机会脱手？如果我是MIIF的股东，我会选择套现。

APTT上市后，MIIF还会持有不少其单位，而这个交易是让其离场的好机会。

发行大量单位
APTT 发行的单位(公众及配股)十分庞大，有兴趣的投资者相信也可以买得到。其所献售的7,000万股也是近期发售量较多的新股之一。如果你申请了供公众认购的部分，你成功的机会很大。我认为它可能会把新加坡的IPO窗口关上，因为所有资金或许会被它吸干。

我看到的优点
电缆电视及宽频的业务模式可为公司带来稳定的经常性收入，而在今时今日的社会里，看电视及上网已十分普及。

派息率增加，预期派息率将从FY13的7.5%上升至8.5%。

我的顾虑
台湾电视业的竞争很大，而价格战也很混乱，这将对派息带来影响。但我对台湾在这方面的管制不大清楚。

负债高的公司(67%)很容易受到加息的影响。目前的低息环境不会永远维持不变。

IPO投资者所买入的是无形资产(电缆电视牌照)，而所支付的本益比也相当高。

在上市后，保荐商只持有APTT的3%股权，但它会继续收取管理费及业绩费。我不肯定利率是否会按照比例作出调校。

发行量实在有点过多，相信每个人都会拿到他的份儿，但这意味着其上涨空间可能有限。

我认为对基层设施资产来说，FY13的7.5%派息率有点过低。投资于基础设施基金的私人投资者会要求较高的回报。上市之后，MIIF将会继续持有相当多的股权(如果所有MIIF股东选择现金，它将会持有5亿2,586万6,849个单位)，这将会对股价带来压力，因为MIIF需要脱售这些股票才可以从新交所除牌(我认为他们不会受锁定期限制，因为选择单位的投资者不会受锁定期限制)。

总结
我不知怎样为这家公司评级，就让投资者自行决定(像基石投资者)，相信他们知道怎样评估。我会给予“不大稳健评级”，但很不幸，我的经纪可能已经帮我买了一点。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:22/05/13

颜子伟: 海峡时报指数很棒；但股市表现不怎样

海峡时报指数很棒；但股市表现不怎样
文： 颜子伟 （译：杨佳文） 2013年05月03日 展望
市场人士早前曾预测亚洲各大指数将陷入一片愁云惨雾之中，但一些主要指数如恒生指数和海峡时报指数的表现都不错，唯独具指标性的上证综合指数大幅下跌。

另一边厢，道琼斯工商指数在14,400点的水平回弹之后，继续迈向15,000点的心理关口。在此之前，道指进入了长达近两周的调整期，且一度出现可能进一步下跌的迹象，但投资者似乎仍相当乐观，因此道指目前应该能守在14,400点之上。

市场在这两周出现了什么变化吗？指数为何会上升？


热钱炒热市场

从基本面来看，市场其实并没有多大变化。

虽然股市出人意料地上涨，但各国的经济数据却不容乐观。事实上，欧洲的经济数据显示接下来的情况可能会更糟，因为欧洲的失业率上升至新高，就连德国的消费和商业信心也下跌了。

中国在去年取得7.8%的经济增长，而其总理李克强表示，中国必须进行经济转型，其经济增长将因此减缓。中国经济之前一直取得双位数增长，若今年的增幅低于2012年，市场人士可能会更加悲观。这可能是上证指数在五一黄金周之前大跌的原因。

在假日期间，中国宣布其制造业在4月份连续第二个月放缓，这将使人们更加确信中国经济的复苏势头可能已结束。

美国的情况也类似。无论经济是否有增长，美国投资者都一股脑地令道指冲高。基于美国联邦储备局每个月都会购买总值850亿美元的债券，谁会管究竟美国经济有没有增长，或者其印钞策略有没有创造足够的就业机会来保持增长呢？美国只需要一直开动印钞机就行了。

毫无疑问，股市目前的涨势是热钱促成的。由于大量资金以史无前例的规模涌入金融体系，美国和日本股市都大幅上涨，无论股市调整的幅度多小，都会吸引更多投资者买入。

蓝筹股大涨，其他股票表现欠佳

海指于4月25日突然上涨至3,320点以上，创下近来的高位，令人感到意外，因为新加坡不久前发布的经济数据欠佳。这轮涨势是由香港股市上涨所带动，原因是中国的黄金周对香港投资者而言似乎是一项好消息，因为他们终于能暂时喘息，免受持续疲弱的上海股市拖累。

当上海股市开市时，香港和新加坡股市将受到考验。到时我们就会知道，新、港股市是因为上海股市休市而暂时上涨，还是因为会有更多利好因素出现。

海指自2008年11月以来首次突破了3,400点，收复了其在金融危机期间的失地，目前距离其3,906点的历史高位还有约500点。

在这轮涨势中，上涨最多的都是大型蓝筹股，如星展集团(DBS Group Holdings)、大华银行(United Overseas Bank)和新电信(SingTel)，其中云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore PLC)的股价在它发布第一季业绩之前一度上涨至1.64元。海指的升幅大部分来自星展集团，其股价在5月2日上涨了将近1元，这种情况在银行股中相当罕见，原因可能是有传言指星展即将获准收购印尼金融银行(Bank Danamon)。

尽管海指劲升，股市整体的表现仍疲弱，海皇轮船(Neptune Orient Lines)、丰益国际(Wilmar International)、金光农业资源(Golden Agri-Resources)、印多福农业(Indofood Agri Resources)、来宝集团(Noble Group)和奥兰国际(Olam International)的表现与海指相比仍差了一大截。

自WE控股(WE Holdings)和安杰德(Ntegrator International)的股价在两个月前大幅下跌后，小型股个个兵败如山倒。澳西奴集团(Aussino Group)之前计划收购缅甸的油站业者，但遭新加坡交易所阻止，理由是其缅甸合作伙伴的信誉不佳。澳西奴的股价隔夜下跌了将近一半，其他小型股如万得国际(Matex International)和斯恩威(CNA Group)也大跌。

由此看来，基金经理目前只是因之前减少了所持有的新加坡股票而买入蓝筹股。也有可能是一些大户趁着上海股市休市趁机推高蓝筹股，从而在短期内大赚一笔。

在5月沽售离场？

道指在5月份的首个交易日就下跌了138点。当然，这不是“五月沽售离场(sell in May and go away)”的说法带来的影响，因为美国近来发布的经济数据都不太好。基于美国将于5月3日发布重要的就业报告，投资者可能都会选择在股市上涨后套取一些利润，以免就业数据有任何闪失。

历史学家会说，5月对看跌的投资者有利，因为股市下跌的可能性较大。所谓“一鸟在手不如二鸟在林”，看涨的投资者又何必为了赚多一点点钱而承担风险呢？

在下跌了138点后，道指可能会形成一个小双顶形态，其位于颈线的支持位为14,400点。假设道指在跌至14,400点后无法穿越14,800点，那我们应可判断短期头部(short-term top)已出现的可能性将增加。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 03/05/13

颜子伟:市场似乎岌岌可危：从图表分析未来走势

市场似乎岌岌可危：从图表分析未来走势
文： 颜子伟 （译：麦美莹） 2013年04月19日 展望
全球各大股市及金融工具表现不一：有些在涨升；有些在下跌；有些停滞不前。新加坡是属于第三类！

我们的股市究竟出了什么问题？投资者都往哪里跑了？

海峡时报指数
新加坡的经济增长将会放缓及企业将会面对劳工短缺，这是基金经理及投资者最不喜欢看到的重要新闻。试想想，一个面对经济增长放缓的国家与一个充满刺激措施的国家，投资者会选择哪个市场？


事实上，本地股市自从去年尾起，并没有什么进展，尽管海峡时报指数走高至目前的水平，差不多与全球其他股市同步。从11月至2月，海指一直飙升，但之后便没有什么动静，尤其是在小型股的强劲升势之后。因为市场狂炒小型股而令升势终止的典型例子是有的。因此，事后孔明，海指的升势就是很可能因为这个原因而终结。

自二月起，蓝筹股一直在窄幅内徘徊，这里起一点，那边跌一点。但值得注意的是，海指在差不多三个月内一直在3,250点至3,320点交易，尽管美国股市一直飙升，并屡创历史新高。在二月初的时候，我建议投资者按兵不动，同时等待海指突破3,320点，但当海指尝试四次闯关都失败后，我便变得谨慎，并在对上两期的文章中显得不大乐观。就好像一个不断尝试挑战一个特定高度的跳高选手，但经过几次的失败后，这名选手将会精疲力竭，失去斗志。同样地，我们看到本地股市也出现类似的现象，尤其是一些产业股，像凯德集团(CapitaLand)及城市发展(City Developments)，但银行股的实力缓和了产业股的跌势。

自从政府宣布新一轮的冷却楼市措施后，楼价在二月及三月稍微下跌。当冷却措施公布后，上述股只的股价应声下跌，但之后马上回升，就好像没有事情发生过一样，然后忽然间一直往下跌。这是否因为大型投资者在玩弄典型的“拉高出货(pump and dump)”手段？即他们希望把手上所持有的这两只股的股份脱手，因此他们首先把这两只股的股价推高，然后让这只股逐渐往下掉来慢慢出货。

城市发展目前的价位是在10.95元，它的支持位是在10.68元。从11.27元高位突然下滑至4月17日的10.95元收盘价不是一个好现象，意味着其价位很有可能会下跌至支持水平。那么，这只股是否可以守住10.68元的支持水平就得视乎大市的表现及/或政府是否会为进一步抑制产业市场而推出更多的新管制措施。

凯德集团比城市发展更危险，它目前位于3.45元，离开3.40元支持水平只差0.05元。 目前的价位比1月份政府宣布抑制房产措施时的价位还要低。接下来的两个支持位是在3.26元及3.11元。

虽然海指并没有好像恒生指数或上海综合指数那样走下坡，但在四次尝试冲破3,320点都失败后，似乎它正在形成一个圆顶。如果海指一旦跌至3,250点或以下，市场将会出现更多抛售，而接下来的支持区将会是在3,110至3,150点。

我们目前必须把重点放在企业业绩上，因为它可以令一只股升或跌，尤其是指数成份股。还记得报业控股(SPH)仅仅在几天内，当它在公布了令人失望的盈利后，从4.68元跌至4.23元。再加上许多成份股将会在不久后除息，海指看来十分不稳定。

道琼斯工商指数
继日本之后，美国市场的表现最佳，道指看似十分健康，除了零星的就业数据可能会打击市场外，好像就没有太多的坏消息。投资者是否终于醒觉刺激措施对实质经济的帮助不大？

单单从技术角度来看，当道指在4月11日升至14,887点高位时，似乎它已经到达近期顶峰。道指正在走低，并且十分不稳定，因为它可以在一天内下跌266点，然后翌日回升176点，接下来又再以三位数回落。这是市场上一个异常的方向变动现象，可能是升或跌，但目前的情况有可能是出现调整，只不过它不会马上出现，因为市场还有很多买家认为股市仍很便宜，而最重要是，市场没有坏消息传来，除非美国大型企业公布令人震惊的业绩。

道指可能很快出现调整并不令人感到意外，但它也有可能出现一两个星期的牛熊对决，最后由熊市取胜。大家应该留意在14,400点的重要支持位，因为一旦这个重要水平失守，道指可能会跌至14,000点或甚至13,800点低位。

恒生及上海综合指数
自从2月初起，两个指数一直在下跌，现在可以肯定它们是处于短及中期跌势中。它们两都尝试努力回弹，但每次回弹的高位都比上一次的回弹高位来得低，换句话说，它正在“拾级而下”。

恒指可能会在21,098 点找到支持，后者是之前在11月的低位；上证综指可能在碰触2,150点后会回升。技术性回弹将会出现，但投资者必须留意下一个回弹是否有能力突破趋势线，因为后者一直在抑制之前几次的回弹。中期而言，两个指数看来依然还有下跌的空间，然后才会回弹。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date: 19/04/13

Analysis Gold slide flashes warning signs for global economy

Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters  
Friday, 19 April 2013 14:27

NEW YORK (April 19) : The plunge in the gold price in the past week may have raised a big red flag over the global economy.

Some top investors say the gold sell-off, and the broader declines in oil and metals prices, reflect the failure of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to create robust demand even as they inject massive amounts of money into the world financial system.


The slide, which took gold to its biggest one-day loss ever in dollar terms on Monday, unnerved investors who saw billions of dollars in gains wiped out in a few days, and it may portend declines in other asset prices ahead. That may have begun this week with several days of big stock price drops.

Some see the move in gold as a possible flashpoint for a broader economic and markets shock comparable to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and even the financial crisis a decade later. Both events were preceded by sharp drops in gold.

The gold and commodities weakness is "signaling concerns about global growth," said Mohamed El-Erian, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. "Commodities have been sending the signal on growth for a while, and now even louder."

And after the stampede out of gold earlier this week, investors on Thursday dumped their holdings of U.S. inflation bonds after a lousy auction. This kind of debt is seen as a way to protect against any rise in the inflation rate that might materialize in a more buoyant economy.

The post-crisis run-up in gold prices resulted in part from speculation triggered by the massive amounts of cash created by aggressive monetary policy. It had been thought that the massive creation of credit would support a "re-inflation" of the world economy but the recent pullback in gold, oil and copper the latter two assets linked closely with global industrial growth suggests that this may just not be happening.

The recent rush into the safety of U.S. Treasuries - which has pushed yields close to four-month lows is another sign that the global economy is far from humming. Treasuries are often seen as a shelter when the economy is weak or unstable.

The PIMCO Total Return Fund, which holds $289 billion in assets and overseen by Bill Gross, increased its exposure to Treasuries and Treasury-related securities to 33 percent in March from 28 percent the previous month. Gross said on Twitter on Wednesday that "gold has started a levered market 'sell-off.' Buy Treasuries."

Some are even talking about the possibility the United States could head back into recession, though this is a minority view.

"It's not noise. There are fundamental consequences," said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies and a portfolio manager of the TCW Comprehensive Asset Allocation Strategy fund.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday dialed back its forecast on global economic growth in 2013 to 3.3 percent from its earlier projection of 3.5 percent. That is little changed from the 3.2 percent in 2012.

Concerns about slowing growth are also resonating within the Federal Reserve. Several Fed officials expressed worry about disinflation, including the more centrist James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, who said on Wednesday that "if inflation continues to go down, I would be willing to increase the pace of stimulus.

"The stars are lining up" for a significant dip in U.S. growth in the second half of the year, possibly even a double-dip recession by 2014, Sri-Kumar said.

It all raises questions about the effectiveness of the huge cash stimulus pumped into the world economy by the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and other major central banks.

With governments strapped for cash, the central banks have taken on a lot of the burden of getting the world economy back on a growth path after the devastation inflicted by the financial crisis. If the impact of those measures, such as the Fed buying massive amounts of government and mortgage debt, starts to show diminishing returns it could be a huge concern for investors in any riskier assets.

GOLD LOSING SHINE

The downdraft in gold prices coincided with mounting evidence of a slowing of the rate of price increases. On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices have increased by 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, the lowest rate of increase since July 2012.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch recently warned that gold - which was trading at $1,392 an ounce late on Thursday could all to $1,200 before stabilizing, citing "fears of disinflation combined with news of potential central bank gold selling."

The sell-off in gold, together with weak economic data, knocked investors' long-term inflation expectations to their lowest levels since late last summer.

The yield gap between 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and regular 10-year Treasury notes used to gauge investors' outlook on inflation 2.27 percentage points on Thursday, the lowest since early September prior to the Fed's announcement of its third round of large-scale bond purchases, known as QE3.

This 10-year inflation "break-even" rate, which the Fed monitors, was as high as 2.61 points in late January.

Meanwhile, three-month copper futures are down 12 percent this year, falling below $7,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange for the first time since October 2011. Copper's importance as a use in industrial and housing applications from autos to water pipes has made it a key barometer of demand.

Some, however, believe the dramatic wind-down of the severe inflation of assets in the previous decade remains incomplete making the declines in gold and other metals less disconcerting.

"Because the global economy is on the downside of a global credit bubble, it seems unreasonable to expect abnormal inflation," said Richard Bernstein, a long-time strategist who heads his own namesake investment advisory firm in New York.

In addition, gold has arguably been in line for a correction. Its price had risen for 12 straight years, and had gained 52 percent in the last three years, the kind of gains seen notably in TECHNOLOGY [] stocks in the late 1990s.  

"Even at these levels, gold is still not attractive. The odds favor the bull market being over," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Global Investments, which in early March told clients to stop allocating a position to gold.

As the outlook on inflation has diminished, investors have cut back on their gold exposure.

U.S. funds that invest in precious metals suffered a record one-week outflow of $2.7 billion in the week ended April 17, according to Lipper, a unit of Thomson Reuters, of which $2.2 billion came from the SPDRs Gold Shares ETF. The GLD is one of the largest exchange-traded funds with $50.8 billion in assets, but it has seen its assets dwindle by one-third since October 2012, Lipper said.

The stampede out of gold has tapered off, and it has pulled back more than 5 percent from a two-year low of $1,321 an ounce hit earlier this week, leading to some hopes the declines are the result of a much-needed correction in the metal.

Still, investors are very wary of another plunge. "If we see this kind of liquidation again, the equity marketwill follow. Then we'll have a real problem," said Frank Cholly, Jr., senior commodities broker at R.J. O'Brien and Associates in Chicago.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.theedgemalaysia.com/
Publish date:19/04/13

Gabriel Gan: Technical Indicators Look Precarious For Asian Markets Even As Dow Hits New Highs

05 APRIL 2013
Technical Indicators Look Precarious For Asian Markets Even As Dow Hits New Highs
By Gabriel Gan

It is yet another solid fortnight for the US market as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) touched new highs while the S&P 500, too, touched fresh closing highs at levels not seen since October 2007. During the fortnight, the DJIA surged ahead to reach 14,684 points on brighter prospects of the US economy only to be disappointed on 3 April when the services sector showed that the growth in the US economy was not as strong as expected while the private sector added less jobs than expected in the month of March.

The triple-digit drop in the DJIA, while not the first time in recent weeks, resembled the correction on 20 February when the index fell 200-odd points to 13,784 points only to recover almost immediately to move higher.


The S&P 500 also took a while to reclaim highs not seen since October 2007 but still lagged the DJIA which breached multi-year highs quite some time ago. On the very same day the S&P 500 returned to 2007 highs, an ominous correction took place and the correction in this broader-market index immediately after touching multi-year highs is more worrisome.

With the US stock market already at historical highs, it is susceptible to downside as shown by the correction on 3 April when the US services sector and private sector employment showed weaknesses. This serves as a minor wake up call to investors who by now are very used to thinking that the US stock market will never fall simply because the Fed (Federal Reserve) is still pumping an endless amount of liquidity into the financial system.

If we paused to think for a while, it is definitely a good thing for the stock market to continue rising so that everyone can make money but corporate profits in the fourth quarter warned us that things are not looking too good and, unless the first quarter surprises us on the upside, how far can the US stock market go on without a meaningful correction?

Asian Markets Moving Its Own Way

With the exception of Japan, which had just announced the first policy decision under new Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda where he announced the buying of US$74 billion worth of bonds a month, the rest of the Asian markets paint a less-than-rosy picture.
While Japan has joined the ranks of the US in seeking solace in the printing machines, China, Hong Kong and Singapore are actually fighting a battle against runaway property prices. For many years, investors are so used to stimulus measures so much so that stock markets do not move unless there are stimulus cocktails available to intoxicate investors into buying more and more equities.

Investors are now worried that China, which depends on the property- and property-related sector for almost one-fifth of its GDP (gross domestic product), may take extra steps to curb property prices after a series a policies failed to cool prices. Similarly in Hong Kong and Singapore, the savvy investors are already out of the market after watching a series of curbs introduced to cool the property market but it is getting worrisome if government policies have so far failed to work. Will more drastic measures be introduced? Will the bubble become too big that a downturn in the global economy be the final needle that burst the bubble?

As mentioned in last issue’s article, Asian markets need to climb higher before the US market loses steam. During the fortnight, however, China and Hong Kong failed to do so and ended up even lower while Singapore managed to climb above 3,320 to as high as 3,324 points on 3 April before pulling back the following day.

Hang Seng Index

The Hang Seng Index (HSI), after trading as high as 23,944 points in early February, has lost almost 1,600 points over two months. During the process, there were a series and ups and downs but each high failed to cross 23,944 points while each low became lower and lower after experiencing technical rebounds. The index is now firmly on a downtrend on both the daily and weekly charts with no signs of an imminent recovery anytime soon. This trend may continue till the index reaches 21,000 points after Li Ka Shing warned against speculating in the property market after Hong Kong banks announced a hike in interest rate.

Could this be the prelude to a rate hike in mortgage loan? While interest rates are not expected to spike up, there is every reason to believe that the cycle has started after years of being too low. This trend will be also confirmed if China starts to hike rates on fears of inflation and/or the US economy grows enough to warrant an exit from the stimulus measures. Similarly in Singapore, the increase in the SIBOR (Singapore interbank offer rate) has not increased for many years until recently when mortgage rates, too, rose a tad higher.

Shanghai Composite Index

A sudden buying spree ended with a whimper just before the official takeover by the new political leaders in March 2013. From November last year to February this year, the (Shanghai Stock Exchange) SSE rose from as low as 1,950 points to 2,450 points, chalking up an impressive gain of 500 points. Could it be a matter of too fast, too furious or is it a matter of facing up to disappointments on the policy front?

Like it or not, the Chinese stock market is still at an infancy stage whereby investors are still not as sophisticated as other markets. The Chinese stock market is still plagued by the herd mentality whereby everybody rushes into one group or a theme stock upon some comments by government officials. More often than not, investors are prone to speculating what the government officials would think or do without basing it on facts. This has led to a huge disappointment when the new leaders who took over in March failed to announce policies that are pro-economy or pro-stock market.

The unwinding process started in February after the SSE hit a high and the index has lost more than 200 points. Just like the HSI where a series of lower-low has been created, the SSE may head towards 2,150 points over the next one or two months after more policy curbs were introduced to cool the property market.

Straits Times Index

The Straits Times Index (STI) has been rather resilient in the face of corrections in the Shanghai and Hong Kong bourses and much of the strength can be found in the support provided by the DJIA. Should the US market start to show more weakness, we can be sure that the STI will break the psychological support of 3,300 points and head towards the primary support zone between 3,250 and 3,280.

While the index managed to cross 3,320 points, the conviction to power ahead was lacking and the entire market looked tired with buyers wary of a correction in the US market. A look at the mid-cap stocks such as Noble Group, NOL (Neptune Orient Lines), Olam International, COSCO Corporation or even some heavyweights such as CapitaLand and SembMarine do not instill much confidence.

No, it is not the end of the world if a correction comes along because an easing is long overdue. Investors will now be on the lookout for first quarter profits for signs of getting back into the market. Beware, as the profits may not be what investors will like!

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 05/04/13

Mega-IPO Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Makes A Splash

08 MARCH 2013
Mega-IPO Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Makes A Splash
By Jade Lee

A big household name indeed attracts a great deal of attention. For the past few weeks, many investors were attracted to the $1.7 billion listing of Temasek-linked Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MGCCT). And not surprising to the market, the public tranche of initial public offering (IPO) was over-subscribed by nine times, signalling market watchers’ affinity towards China-focused real estate investment trust (REIT), despite the cancellation of the Dynasty REIT listing in October last year.

Commitments from institutional investors were just as impressive. The mega-listing managed to secure a total of 953.5 million units, or 55 percent of the 1.7 billion shares from 11 corner stone investors, who agreed not to sell the shares until the end of its lock-up period. Having stellar names such as AIA Group, CBRE Group, Henderson Global Investors and Morgan Stanley as cornerstones, investor sentiments would certainly be boosted.


So, What Can Investors Expect?

MGCCT’s current portfolio is worth some $4.3 billion and only comprises of two retail and office developments in the prime areas in Hong Kong and China (Festival Walk in Kowloon area and Gateway Plaza in Beijing). Touted as the best-in-class commercial properties in the regions, both buildings have an occupancy rate of over 98 percent and WALE (weighted average lease expiry) by gross rental income of 2.4 years. The manager has also projected rental reversions of 14.4 percent and 14.9 percent for Festival Walk and 65.4 percent and 38.9 percent for Gateway Plaza for leases expiring in FY14 and FY15 respectively.

In the short to medium term, the manager of the REIT said it may purchase another five assets which are located in Xi’an, Shanghai and Foshan. These assets, which have the potential to be worth up to $3 billion, are said to match MGCCT’s investment mandate and are expected to be ready after one to five years.

Interesting enough, MGCCT’s eccentric management fee structure could be an attraction that is not to be missed by investors. Going against the norm of maintaining assets’ growth rather than unitholders’ interest in the Singapore REIT sector, MGCCT’s base fees are pegged to distribution income and distribution per unit (DPU) growth rather than assets under management and net property income. With the REIT manager now enticed to grow distribution income and DPU, this could essentially align manager’s interest with investors’.

Furthermore, MGCCT’s comparative yield to other listed China-based landlords could be another pull factor for investors that are gorging on high-yield stocks. With projected yields of 5.6 percent in FY14 and 6.1 percent for FY15, this has compared well with other REITs such as CapitaRetail China Trust (FY12: 5.5 percent) and Fortune REIT (FY12: 4.8 percent). While there is a fair share of anxiety out there about MGCCT’s high gearing ratio of 43 percent, a comforting note given by MGCCT is that the interest used to pay on the loan is actually acting as a tax shield, which ultimately benefits the trust by about $6 million a year. The trust further added that the gearing will not go beyond 45 percent.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 08/03/13

颜子伟: 海峡时报指数仍在3,300点挣扎；不用灰心！

海峡时报指数仍在3,300点挣扎；不用灰心！
文： 颜子伟 （译：麦美莹） 2013年02月22日 展望
迎难而上，遇强愈强!

这句话可能是很多投资者的心声，但去年尾当股市开始其升势前，部分投资者感到意兴阑珊。可是，如果投资者有这样的念头是可以体谅的，因为恐惧及劳累令他们心有余而力不足。

自从2008年美国发生金融危机及两年前欧洲债务危机浮现后，投资者在心力及财力上已越来越感到疲惫，因此连投资于股市的心情也欠奉。 谁可以怪责这些投资者？因为在过去6年，股市接二连三地受到危机的打击。谁可以有把握的说欧洲经济不会表现差劲？因为除了欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)去年答应无限量购买主权债券后令信心恢复以外(但至今还未有任何行动)，似乎大部分问题还是未有获得解决。


信心是股票市场的一个重要元素，因为它对市场情绪带来直接影响，而情绪就是在过去三个月来一直推动环球股市走高的催化剂。

提升情绪的主要动力分为两个部分：量化宽松政策及缺乏坏消息。无可疑问，来自量化宽松第三期(QE III)的热钱，一直在推动股市走高； 而由于市场没有坏消息出现(与2011及2012年的情况截然不同)，让投资者有信心重回市场，虽然当升势在去年11月中开始时，很多人还没有察觉到。

当股市继续走高时，不知所措的投资者继续等待无从捉摸的调整出现，但后者似乎不见踪影，而在过去整整三个月里，有意义的调整并没有出现过！

错失机会的投资者
如果投资者错失了这次升势，并正在等待另一个进场机会，那么目前的盘整/调整是让我们进场的好机会。
我们通常听到最多的抱怨是股市经过三个月的升势后，股价有点“过高”，但大家不可以忘记，股市今天的价格反映了投资者对经济未来六个月的展望，如果我们老是以“11月的价格”来相比，投资者如果想再进场就比较困难。

那些不愿意以“市价”进场的投资者就好像那些认为食物价格比三个月前高而拒绝进食的人。不过，我们当然可以选择不作投资，但我们总不可能饿着肚子。可是，历史教训我们，当每个人都进场时，大部分投资者都会一窝蜂进场，即当价格飙升，而每个人都在赚钱的时候。这跟产业市场是不是很相似？我们都不愿意在楼价便宜时买楼，但当楼价高企时，买楼的人却大排长龙，就是因为怕输的心理？

投资者将会很快再次进场，因为在多个原因下，股价今年很可能会升得更高。而买家只会在海峡时报指数升至4,000点才会蜂拥而至?? !! 噢，这只是开个玩笑！

调整不会维持过久的原因
正如之前提到，有意义的调整已经很久没有出现。对于那些还未有进场及那些最近把手头上的股票卖出的投资者来说，当然希望调整的幅度比较大。

健康的调整对股市的长期走势是好事，但我们有理由相信，约10%或更大的调整幅度可能不会出现。

除非基本环境出现变化，即刺激这次升势的理由消失了，否则，任何调整应被视为一个进场的好时机。首先，这次的升势是受到热钱流入股市所推动，而除非美国及日本突然把印钞机的插头拔出，否则，金融系统还有很多流动资金来等待弱势时出击。热钱、存放在低收益资产的资金及闲置着的资金正等待进场，并会为股价带来支持。

QE III 注入了大约450亿美元于金融系统中，而这些资金需要找到一个落脚点。除了投资于低收益资产像政府债券(回报很低)外，部分资金将会流向股市，以寻求较高回报，况且目前的风险胃口已经增加。环球经济重新带来的信心也将会逼使资金买入美国债券，因此，股市将会成为其中的一个受惠者，因为人的贪念会支配这些资金寻求风险较高的资产。

除了因为政府大量印刷钞票而流入的资金，以及高风险资产受追捧成为大势所趋外，另一个将会继续推动股市走高的重要因素是，闲置着的资金正等待着进场。

这些资金是属于那些错过了这次升势的投资者，他们是最焦急的一群，而焦急的意思是他们将会为利而变得贪婪并害怕再次错失机会。这些投资者只是在等待调整或乐观催化剂的出现，好让他们再次进场。

看不到会令这个小型牛市结束的理由
没错，美国股市进入了调整模式，而亚洲股市开始跟随，因为害怕美国联储局会提前结束刺激措施。可是，美国经济还未有完全恢复过来，让联储局可以这样做。因此，联储局很可能会采取这个步骤的“谣传”只不过是牛市想找借口稍作喘息。

有消息指出，中国政府要求地方当局限制产业买卖，令上海综合指数下跌3%。这则新闻可能会令人真的有点担忧，但地方政府一直以来都阳奉阴违，理由是减少卖地会直接影响他们的收入，而这正是为何中央政府花了这么长的时间还未能抑制楼价。

除非新的危机出现，或者是各国政府的政策出现基本变化，否则目前的调整可被视为一个技术性的调整，并不会改变今年的上升趋势。

上证综合指数预期会在2,230至2,250点找到支持，而海峡时报指数、道琼斯工商指数及恒生指数则分别将会在3,160至3,230点、13,450至13,600点及22,000至22,400点找到支持。


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 22/02/13

颜子伟:海峡时报指数靠近3,300点；跟风股受追捧

海峡时报指数靠近3,300点；跟风股受追捧
文： 颜子伟 （译：麦美莹） 2013年02月01日 展望
没错！海峡时报指数似乎终于打破了农历新年所带来的厄运，因为在2012年(刚好是龙年)之前，股市连续六年都在农历新年遇上厄运。

是不是龙真的可以降魔伏妖？本地股市是否终于可以摆脱前几年一直在农历新年前后缠绕着投资者的厄运？

还有一个星期我们便过农历新年，但投资者目前还在享受牛市所带来的好运，这当然是好消息。在坏消息欠奉的情况下，环球股市终于可以持续其升势，甚至当美国经济在2012年第四季下跌0.1%的消息公布后，市场也不为所动。毕竟，美国联邦储备局主席伯南克向投资者再次保证，第四季的数字只是稍微下跌，并重申其一直以来希望获取适度经济增长的立场。最重要是，他没有更改他的政策声明，意味着在可见的未来，联储局将继续每个月买入850亿美元的债券。


虽然一些负面消息及超买因素令1月最后几天出现获利回吐，但牛市需要一些健康的调整才可以够力再往前冲，因此投资者不需要担忧。

升势够全面吗?
如果我们仔细看看本地股市，似乎交投量最大的是小型股，尤其是那些低于0.20元的小股，而最低上落价位(tick)为0.001元。

为什么会出现这个现象？

这些小股的共同特点是大部份的基本面并不诱人，有些是在蒙亏，而且在这之前并不活跃。

交易员喜欢买卖这些股票，因为只要股价每移动1个最低价位(tick)，他们便有利可图，因为这些交易员需要缴付的佣金为0.05%或者更低；散户投资者在互联网平台交易所需付的佣金为0.25%。

拿K1创业(K1 Venture)作为例子。这只股在1月31日的0.152元低位上升了0.017元。如果投资者以1万 5,200元买入10万股，他便可以赚取1,700元(未有计入交易相关收费)，但大宗买入的交易员(通常买入50万、100万及200万股)每当股价升高一个最低价位(tick),他便可以赚取500元至2000元不等。

这个买卖小股的趋势已经维持了差不多两个月，而期间每天都有不同股只轮流受到追捧。这些股受投资者青睐是因为与蓝筹股相比，所需的费用不大，而回报可能是很巨大。

但问题是，小股的升势是否可以准确量度大市的走势？

就让我们来看看蓝筹股的走势。我们只需要观察海指的表现，因为这个指数差不多代表了所有的重量级股。海指从11月中至12月尾的升势凌厉，但1月份的升势明显放缓，主要是因为政府推出新一轮抑制楼价的措施。部份产业股及银行股遭殃，但一些发展商如凯德集团(CapitaLand)却之后回弹至比宣布措施前更高的价位。

另一方面，产业股像城市发展(City Developments)的走势便比不上凯德集团，因为后者的产业部门比较多元化及所覆盖的地域更广。

商品股方面，像来宝集团(Noble Group)、金光农业资源(Golden-Agri Resources)及奥兰国际(Olam International)从各方面来看都是滞后股，而丰益国际(Wilmar International)的表现则较佳，可以追上海指的表现。银行股的表现也落后，星展集团(DBS)在1月滑落后回弹至接近12月的高位，而大华银行(UOB)的表现则比星展集团差很多。喜欢银行股的投资者请注意，星展集团可能很快便升高至15元以上；但如果你希望取得更高回报，不妨看好大华银行可能会迎头赶上。我所作的假设是如果这两家银行在2月6日(星展集团)及2月27日(大华银行)公布业绩时，不会带来惊人的坏消息。

运输业方面，新加坡地铁(SMRT)的表现很明显是最差，而新航(Singapore Airlines)大致上可以跟上海指的升幅。康福德高企业(ComfortDelgro)的表现最佳，从11月中的1.57元上升至1月最后一个交易日的1.93元，22%的升幅是业内最高，也高出海指很多。

我们身处牛市吗?
没有，还没有。如果我们以2012年11月作为起点，全面牛市还没有出现，因为海指还没有取得20%的升幅 (通常股市对牛市所下的定义)。

可是，海指图表显示，牛市从去年6月/7月已经开始出现，当时海指是在2,700点，换句话说，海指已经上升总共580点，超过20%。虽然我们不可以确定所有的图表是以此作为起点，但我们确实是处于牛市中，因为海指已经上升20%，而所有技术性指标也指向牛市。

美国市场目前的牛市已经步入第5年，但想到自2007年以来出现过的种种危机，身处牛市的感觉有点令人不可思议。可是，我们不可以忘记，牛市通常是当熊市见底回升的时候开始，而最后阶段的庞大升势通常是与利好消息、强劲增长及市场的高涨情绪同时间发生。我们已来到这个阶段吗？没有。还没有，因为市场还有很多隐忧，而很多投资者不大相信目前的牛市是一个真正的大牛市。

虽然我们不敢肯定这个小牛市仍可以维持多久，但投资者应该采取信任的态度，并开始在市场出现轻微调整时进场，来重拾一点信心。如果投资者不敢踏出第一步，最好的方法是选择一只基础良好的滞后股，在观察它上升的同时，也严守一个设定的止损点。只要做出正确的决定，之后便会顺理成章，而信心自然便会恢复。

仍然是那句，买者自负!
尽管上述提到的是一个比较乐观的画面，投资者仍需要谨慎行事，因为海指已经超过两个月处于升势中，期间并没有出现过有意义的全面调整。交易员过度沉迷于买卖基本面较差的小股令进场的风险增加。在牛市中，差不多任何股只都在升，因此投资者最好是选择那些滞后的海指成份股。本文内也提到不少这些滞后股。

我在此谨祝各位读者蛇年行好运，万事如意，大吉大利！


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 01/02/13

2013 Market Outlook And Stock Picks: Experts’ Favourites

04 JANUARY 2013
2013 Market Outlook And Stock Picks: Experts’ Favourites
By Editorial Team

In this special two-part feature to kick-start 2013, we have invited market experts to share their views on the market outlook for the Asian markets and our local bourse. Beyond that, the Shares Investment team and the experts will also be identifying potential performers in the stock market this year.

After a tumultuous year in 2012 that had seen the stock markets exhibit wild swings on the woes of the European debt crisis, slowing growth in US and China, major indexes have, nonetheless, been seen moving to higher grounds in recent rallies.

However, the global economy is hardly in a better shape as gross domestic product projections around the globe have remained low and many blue-chip companies have not registered significantly higher earnings. With the global economy expected to remain fragile, how will 2013 pan out for the Asian stock markets?

Sharing his views with Shares Investment in an exclusive interview, Professor Chan Yan Chong commented, “Volatility is likely to remain in the stock markets for 2013 as the global economy has yet to recover and the rising stock market performance has been due to the excess money in the market following the numerous stimulus measures churned out in 2012.”

“The policy easing trend is likely to continue with more central banks putting forth easing measures to excite the economy, especially Japan and China,” Professor Chan added. Highlighting Japan as the world’s third largest economy, he remarked that newly elected leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party are likely to introduce more monetary easing in the market in order to combat the ailing economy it faces and the Japanese yen has weakened on such expectations.

“Unlike Japan which faces a contracting growth, China’s tight monetary policies have been due to the high inflationary pressures in the country. However, with its economic indicators showing declining results and rising production costs, China could also be introducing easing measures when its new leaders take over in March 2013.”

Professor Chan, however, cautioned that while markets could continue in an upward trajectory in anticipation of China’s new policies, it may experience a correction if the policies are not realised and if the market moves up too quickly, a new bubble might form.

Turning to our local market, Professor Chan noted that the Straits Times Index (STI), although predominantly tracking the US market movements, is becoming more and more influenced by the Asian markets which have been shifting focus to the developments of the China market. Also, he added that with the US stock market approaching 2007-highs, investors may find the valuations too high and the hot money could in turn, flow into the Asian region and drive up indexes here.

With the markets expected to trend upwards this year as highlighted by Professor Chan, how should investors ride on this wave without getting trapped in the volatility that will be here to stay? Read on to find out what three other market experts, Gabriel Gan, Willie Tan Yi Li and Collin Seow, have to say about our local market outlook and their favourite picks this year as they share their insights with us.

Shares Investment: What is your view on the performance of the STI for 2013?

Gan: 3,200 should not be a problem for the STI in the near-term provided that the index does not fall over the cliff, which is unlikely to happen. The daily, weekly and monthly charts signify more upside for STI although a correction should not be ruled out in the mid-term. Thereafter, STI is likely to reach 3,400 by mid-2013.

Tan: In the past two years, the stock market has come under continuous attacks from financial crises. However, that is about to change. Economic growth this year should outstrip that of 2012. Current reasonably low stock prices will also aid the recovery of investors’ confidence. In my opinion, the STI may test the 3,300 resistance level. Should the resistance level be broken, the index will head towards the 3,600 level. Meanwhile, the 3,030 level will act as a support.

Seow: The important resistance levels that I will be looking at in 2013 for the STI would be 3,200 and 3,280. For the support levels, I think 2,720 and 2,930 are important. I’m expecting an upside biasness if the STI can break the 3,200 level. I’m largely maintaining a buy at support and sell at resistance stance.

SI: What do you think the investment theme will be this year?

Gan: It will be to abandon defensive in search of superior returns. High beta stocks are likely to enjoy favour and cyclical stocks should do well.

Tan: The oil and gas industry looks promising for 2013. While oil prices are on a downtrend, the decline is just temporary. Being an irreplaceable commodity, oil will not exhibit huge price swings. As the global economy tries to get on its feet, demand for oil will rise. In addition, oil-related stocks are still reasonably priced.

Seow: I remain neutral on any sectors. I mean, you can be looking at the technology sector, oil and gas sector or even transportation, but I would prefer to focus on China related stocks or potential reverse takeover targets for 2013 instead. I would say I’m looking at 2013 with a very stock approach rather than a general sector approach.

SI: What are your top three picks and why do you think they stand out against their peers in the same industry?

Gan – STX OSV Holdings, OSIM International,
Neptune Orient Lines

STX OSV Holdings has my near-term preference due to the takeover offer by Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri SpA at only $1.22 apiece. This price will form a solid support and weaknesses should be able to stop here. Meanwhile, the firm managed to experience a solid growth in 2012 despite the fact that others were suffering. In addition, the selling of stakes by its parent, STX Europe, was for the purpose of raising cash. For 2013, the demand for specialised offshore vessels should continue to do well particularly if Europe and oil prices recover.

Tan – DBS Group Holdings, Sembcorp Marine, Noble Group
Noble Group makes up one of my 2013 picks. Noble, unlike Olam, is engaged in a wider range of commodity trading which involves metals and energy-related products. The prospects of such products remain bright. Furthermore, the leadership change may seek fresh impetus for growth.

Looking at Noble’s price chart, there is a strong support level whereby four rebounds have occurred since November 2011. This level is noteworthy as prices have not fallen below this level. However, the momentum of its rising share price, is seemingly retained by its moving averages which have act as a resistance. It will take some time. Should Noble’s share price break the resistance, I believe the pace of the price rally would accelerate. Resistance levels are at $1.21, $1.285 and $1.37. The support levels are $1.12 and $1.02 with the latter being the crucial support level. Based on my forecast, the stock price could reach $1.535.

Seow – China Aviation Oil, Yanlord Land Group, Ho Bee Investment
After rallying to $2.89 in 2009, Yanlord Land Group began to slide to as low as $0.69 in October 2011. In 2012 however, Yanlord is no longer on the same downtrend move.

The rebound seen in June 2012 for Yanlord’s stock price confirms this view. My target price based on Fibonacci retracement and moving average is $2.00 for this year. Also on their fundamental front, Yanlord have acquired sites in Zhuhai for developing prime residential property. The acquisition capitalises on government initiatives to inject over Rmb300 billion to develop Zhuhai into a western hub for the Pearl River Delta.

Coupling this with improved gross profit, fair value gain on investment property, net gain on disposal of available-for-sale investment, foreign exchange gain and lower finance cost, the stock may continue in its upward trajectory.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date: 04/01/13

Markets – Likely To Take A Breather

13 AUGUST 2012
Markets – Likely To Take A Breather
By Ernest Lim

For the past two weeks, Asian markets have surged with Hang Seng and Nikkei posting a 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent gain respectively. Optimism on potential central bank action from US and Europe and the possibility of more easing from China (especially with the much weaker than expected trade data, industrial production, retail sales released last week) kept the rally alive.

Table 1: STI’s past 2 week price performance vis-à-vis other indices

Source: Bloomberg, Ernest’s compilations

Looking forward to this week, Tuesday would be a day of focus. On Tuesday, important economic data such as China’s foreign direct investment, French and German Prelim GDP, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Europe Flash GDP, Europe industrial production and US core retail sales data would be on tap. Investors would also watch out for the US CPI, manufacturing, housing and consumer sentiment data scheduled for release between Wednesday to Friday (please refer to “Summary of Economic Calendar for the Week ahead (SIN time)” below for some of the important economic events to take note).

For the week, STI retreated from an intraday high of 3,086 and found support at the previously mentioned resistance turned support level 2 of around 3,044. It closed 3 points higher, or 0.1 percent to 3,054. As the results season comes to an end in the next couple of weeks, markets are likely to take a breather. In addition, it is noteworthy that European stocks have rallied for 10 consecutive weeks, or 15 percent since 4 June. US stocks have rallied for five consecutive weeks. Furthermore, the earliest where we can get a sniff of whether we may get QE III is at the Jackson Hole Symposium which stretches from 31 Aug to 2 Sep. Thus, between now to 31 Aug, odds are higher that markets may take a breather. As markets take a breather, there may be selected rotation to the second liners. Notwithstanding the lack of catalysts from now to 31 Aug, it is unlikely that markets may face a significant sell off of more than 10 percent before the Jackson Hole Symposium on 31 Aug.

As mentioned 3 weeks ago in my weekly newsflash 23 Jul to 27 Jul, readers can consider to adopt a nimble trading strategy (at least for a portion of your portfolio) to buy on weakness and sell on strength. OSIM International (which I have emailed to my clients on 26 Jul early afternoon before its results) is a case in point where it weakens from $1.23 on 20 Jul to $1.185 on 26 Jul. Thereafter it gaps up on 27 Jul after its result release on 26 Jul evening. OSIM went to an intraday high of $1.34 on 7 and 8 Aug before it closed at $1.33 on 10 Aug.

Ezion Holdings is another company which I mentioned in my previous week weekly newsflash 6 Aug to 10 Aug where such trading strategy may be employed. It was around $0.975 on 3 Aug and went to an intraday low of $0.960 on 7 Aug, the eve of its results announcement. It closed at $1.040 on 10 Aug, more than a five year high. Nevertheless, Ezion is a highly volatile stock which may not be suitable to some readers. Readers who are interested to know more about Ezion can email me at crclk@yahoo.com.sg for the analyst reports.

All the best for your investment and trading!

Please note that the above is my personal opinion and may not cater to your specific risk profile etc. The question of when to buy / sell and what to buy / sell differs greatly from individual to individual. Furthermore, it is extremely important to bear in mind that the market outlook is never static. It can change suddenly if there are sudden big events unfolding from the market – some events can happen as quickly as a few hours.

STI supports and resistances are:

Current: 3,054

Support 1: 3,044

Support 2: 3,027 – 3,033

Support 3: 3,016

Support 4: 2,996-2,997

Support 5: 2,962 – 2,966

Resistance 1: 3,063

Resistance 2: 3,078 – 3,086

Resistance 3: 3,105

Resistance 4: 3,120

Resistance 5: 3,137

*Supports and resistances are not static levels. They may be subject to change daily.

*Summary of Economic Calendar for the Week ahead (SIN time)

13 Aug, Mon: (JPY) Prelim GDP;

14 Aug, Tues: (JPY) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; (CNY) **Foreign Direct Investment; (EUR) French & German Prelim GDP / French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls / German ZEW Economic Sentiment / Europe Flash GDP / Europe Industrial Production; (GBP) CPI; (USD) Core Retail Sales / PPI / Business Inventories;

15 Aug, Wed: (GBP) MPC Meeting Minutes / Unemployment Rate; (USD) Core CPI / Crude Oil Inventories / Empire State Manufacturing Index / Industrial Production / NAHB Housing Market Index;

16 Aug, Thurs: (EUR) Core CPI; (GBP) Retail Sales; (USD) Unemployment Claims / Building Permits / Housing Starts / Philly Fed Manufacturing Index;

17 Aug, Fri: (EUR) Trade Balance; (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment / CB Leading Index;

*All economic data especially China data (if any) are subject to changes without notice. The above list is not exhaustive. I have merely listed the economic data which I feel has more impact to the market.

**China Foreign Direct Investment is tentatively scheduled on 14 Aug.

***The above is part of the weekly newsflash which I send out to my clients weekly on a weekend.

Information sources: Various sources such as Bloomberg, Dow Jones, forex calendar, Reuters, SGX, Yahoo Finance, and Business Times etc.

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Publish date: 13/08/12