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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: Homework
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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Showing posts with label Homework. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Homework. Show all posts

Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Daniel Loh 11月5日 FM958电台访问:美国股市9月到底部的3大原因!


·        美国股市9月到底部的3大原因

美国昨天闭市在17868点。很高兴的是美国股市这一个月的走势确实按照我们所说的。一个月前和两个星期前,我们都说我们确实看好美国第4季度的股市。

一个月前美国道琼斯指数还在16000点。短短一个月已经涨了1800点。现在离历史高点只差500点了。新加坡海指也从一个月前的2750点涨到了现在3030点。

今天我想提3点为什么我们当时会觉得16000点,9月的时候会是低点。以后大家就可以自己炒作。


(关于我9月和10月说的访谈)
9月10日 FM958电台访问:世界股市有救吗?

10月8日 FM958电台访问:美国股市第4季度会反转吗?
http://www.danielloh.com/2015/10/daniel-loh-108-fm9584.html


第一:
我们还是觉得美国市场还是一个大牛市当中。因为利率还是非常低。只要利率低,熊市就不会来临因为股市跌多了,热钱就会进来。大家不用害怕熊市的来临。也不要相信任何恐慌的说法。

第二:
既然美国还在牛市当中,我发现只要道指跌破200天的移动平均线(200MA),股市在两周内必定见底。如果大家会用图表,可以自己画出200天的均线。这一条线是牛市的生命线。只要跌破这一条线,我发现两周以内大家就一定看到谷底。这一次跌破了,3天就到谷底。两周后,股市刚好就在16000点。因此我们也是因为这一点一个月前跟大家说可以开始看股票了。

第三:
我们也发现,道琼斯指数如果还是一个牛市,最多会跌一个10-15%。这一次跌深了。但是也刚好只跌15%。如果大家拿最高点18351X0.85 = 15600点。这一次道指跌最深时15400点,当天就反弹了。以后大家记得,只要我们还是牛市,只要道指跌15%,通常都是非常好的机会。


·        新加坡海指3000-3250范围

一个月前,海指从2750点跑了上来。现在是3030点了。虽然已经跑了10%,但是我还是觉得还有往上升的空间。我还是看好道指第4季度的表现。美国会有许多的节日,可能还会带动股市。因此我觉得海指还有望上升。

我判断第4季度,海峡指数可能会在3000-3250点徘徊。3000点就是低点,3250点就是高点。如果到了3250点,大家一定要小心。

我鼓励大家稍微留意一下农务大众商品的股票。我觉得2016年这一类的股票有可能表现会不错。


·        谁说中国股市进入熊市??

我们都一直在节目中强调,中国股市现在在牛市的第二个阶段,不要害怕。我们预测上证指数都会一直在3000-4500点跑动。现在是3450点了。我觉得还是相当便宜的。虽然大家看到中国的经济数据一直很不好,但是股市还是上了。


我鼓励大家留意一些中国房地产的公司。只要利率一直下滑,房地产公司一定获利。

Wednesday, 11 February 2015

Lunch break Investment talk on radio Capital 958

China Bull market has turned from fast to slow bull.
Any pull back is a good opportunity to buy. Suggestion of entry: Shanghai Composite Index SSE at 3100. If go down, then second batch buying point at 3000. If go down, then third batch buying point at 2900.

China people have the practice to cash out instead of keeping stocks during big festival like CNY. And recent pull back, weakness in share price and volume shrinking explains it.

Usually China announces important policy change ( interest rate decision et ) after market close with smaller policy change announced on weekday and bigger policy change announced at Friday market close. The recent Reserve rate cut (supposed to be bigger policy change) announced at Wednesday resulting Investors digested it as not so good move with the mean of China no choice has to cut to prevent tightening liquidity happens.


Tuesday, 4 November 2014

Singapore Stock Tip: Recently OSIM spiral spectacularly, but look for support at $1.50!

Recently we have seen the spectacular spiral of OSIM, a stock that has been rising wonderfully these last 2 years from as low as $1.10 in June 2013 to as high as $2.94 in May this year. This spiral is definitely a result of miscalculations by OSIM.


I think one of the main job of Ron Sim, OSIM's CEO is to keep a constant outlook of projection target by analysts and to keep them down so that the actual earnings won't be too far off the analysts' expectations.

Ron Sim can't possibly not know the sales projections is slowing down for the quarter or even for the year ahead. He allows the market to continuously expect OSIM to outperform what the analysts expects. He just did not manage the expectations of the market or the analysts.

In fact, recently one of the analysts, Macquarie Research analyst Sam Chan downgraded the stock to "underperform" in June with a target price of S$2.30. He said, "OSIM had been an impressive turnaround story and earnings growth was driven by increasing margins, but that story was over."

He pointed to four factors: There are near-term headwinds in China; it is too early to be bullish on TWG; sales growth excluding TWG is slowing; and management has a poor record of meeting their guidance targets. His latest price target was S$1.90.

Poor record of meeting their guidance targets! If Ron has done his job and keep a close look at the market expectations, this should not happen! One thing Ron Sim could have done is to give a projection last quarter that this quarter might not be up to what the market expects. He could have jolly employ a financial person to advise him on it. Given the inventory and the sales projections, Ron would have got the figures beforehand and give a warning first to calm down the expectations.

I am sure if he has done that, this fall would not be this bad! Apple's CEO Tim Cooks learnt the hard way since he took over from Steve Jobs. MANAGING MARKET EXPECTATIONS! I hope Old Ron will learn from this episode too!

One and a half years of climb is gone in just 2 months. This is the cruelty of stocks!


But having said that, I do believe that this price may be oversold. I am looking at the support of $1.50 to hold. 

Given its efforts to expand in the TWG business and Ron's entrepreneurial ability and massage chair monopoly, I am sure this stock will be coming back with a vengeance when the panic subsides!

Price now: $1.75
Strong Support: $1.50
Target to buy: $1.50 - $1.55
Stop loss: $1.39



Rgds
Daniel Loh

Hong Kong Stock Tip: Galaxy Entertainment 银河娱乐 is a good buy!


A couple of weeks ago, I attended Shares Investment annual investment conference as a guest speaker. It was then that I heard about the fall of one of Hong Kong hottest stock, Galaxy Entertainment (00027). Louis Wong, Phillips Securities (HK) Ltd Director told me when I sit beside him that this stock has fallen by half, from this year high of HK$84.50 to Oct low of  HK$42.95.

The reason is that the betting revenue this year in general has been falling due to the clamp down by the China Government on the government officials. With less VIP rollers, betting revenue dropped. In fact the whole casino industry is affected! Genting Singapore as a result also dropped to $1.01 recently.

Despite this, I do think that this drop is oversold! Galaxy Entertainment will finish revamping the Old Grand Waldo casino by mid 2015. This will surely add to the revenue of Galaxy.

Below is the article:
http://www.ggrasia.com/galaxy-ents-revamped-grand-waldo-to-open-early-2015/

I am sure with the opening of the new casino in 2015, there will no doubt be a lot of expectations before the launch.

I think that this stock is oversold, and given its drop, may be poised for a rise in the long term. Although this stock has risen a bit to HK$53, I do think this stock has potential to increase more! 

Could have updated this stock earlier when it is still HK$40 plus, but was busy. Nevertheless, I am looking into its 2015 casino launch.

Do remember that this stock is not a speculative short term play, but a long term investment!

Stock now: HK$53.90
Mid term target: HK$67
Long term target: HK$77

Stop loss: HK$44.70



US Stock Tip: Facebook is definitely cheap at US$75!

I have been looking forward to facebook gap down on earnings day recently. To me, everytime it gaps down is a tremendous chance to buy it up at cheap!

Facebook is a case of too good to be true story! It is one of the fastest growing company in the world! For these few quarters, it keeps on beating analysts forecasted EPS by near to 100% on each of the earnings.

This possibly cant go on forever! Good stocks with high expectations don't run forever. There will be times whereby occassional earnings will not perform up to expectations. It is normal. But noramlly it will bounce back up either the following quarter or the next!

That is the behaviour of a good RETIREMENT STOCK!

And I do feel Facebook is one of them! A must-own once in a lifetime stock! Please do not sell and keep on accumulating for 10 years!

Our article in 2013

US stock tip: This may be one stock for your retirement - Facebook!

http://www.danielloh.com/2013/07/this-may-be-one-stock-for-your.html

Although this company has gone up one time from US$35 since we recommend until now US$75, we still believe that this stock may be the next Google or Baidu.

And this gap down on earnings is perhaps another chance to BUY CHEAP!



Price Now: US$75
Mid term Target: US$85
Long term Target: 10 years

Thursday, 30 October 2014

GET READY for a beautiful November and December Holiday Run!

GET READY for a beautiful November and December Holiday Run!


This article gives us enough reasons to buy into the stock market now! Apple I-phone, Xbox One...

Merry Christmas, Ho ho ho!

Tuesday, 29 July 2014

How much is Chip Eng Seng undervalued by Mr Market?


http://www.puntersgallery.com/showthread.php?t=207&highlight=chip
Chip Seng Seng is very undervalued. The Alexandra Central project alone is likely to increase its NAV by at least 60 cents.

Management bought back millions of shares at 0.74 to 0.76 cents. Current Market price is 0.805. Hence, Market Cap works out to be $516mil. 

Did anyone estimate the obscene profit CES will reflect in its book in the coming few quarters?

I did some rough calculation using just one of its projects, Alexandra Central. It seems that just one major project can already create enough NAV to cover its current market cap.

a. 450 hotel rooms x $1mil per key = $450 mil (Valuation)
b. Commercial retail space = 90,000sqf x $5233 (source: property guru)PSF x 80% (efficiency ratio) = $377mil (REVENUE)
c. Total cost of investment = $320mil (land, construction, etc)
(land cost = $189mil. The construction contract was awarded to Keong Hong for $101mil). [$350mil might have been "overstated" at company's website]

Shareholder value from this single project alone ~ $507mil , which is close to its current market cap (yet to be recognized in its books), based on very conservative assumptions!

And this is just one project and there are many others (Nine residence/Junction 9, progressively recognized, etc). Its construction business will earn about EPS 5 cents per annum.

The current NTA of around 80 cents seem to be grossly understated. Given that company was buying furiously at 75.5 cents on average, it could not be just for a meager 10-20% gain (IMHO). In fact, company is sending a very clear and strong signal to its loyal shareholders. 

The total intrinsic value by end of FY2015 would probably in the region of $1.60~$1.80 (very conservative, excluding TM and other pipe projects such as the Malacca retail/hotel, Fulcrum, Doncaster project in Melbourne)



Sunday, 1 June 2014

How MAS Lose Money, How To Save It

by 

It is not easy to lose so much money for such a long time, hence we should compile a list of why MAS keep losing money. Why beat around the bush? Either you want to save it or you don't ... 



a) Negative operating cash flow for three years – which means it is not generating enough cash to meet its day-to-day operating costs – and has had negative free cash flow, operating cash flow minus capital expenditure, for six years - MAS punya union leaders, please note that when your company is bleeding cash every year, things MUST change. When I say CHANGE, I mean everybody, not the unions asking for management to CHANGE saja!!! When I say CHANGE, everybody must be open to change, are the unions open to change? Or do you barricade yourselves with demands and untouchable issues??!!

b) Downsize - No other choice but to downsize. I do not think this is a situation where you can GROW yourself out of the problem, because when you are negativecashflow, you are already doing a lot of things wrong. Staying the same is a NO-NO, so is getting more bailout funds to be bigger. You have to get to a size where you can compete well, then grow from that successful blueprint.

c) Renegotiate all Unfair contracts with suppliers - MAS can probably solve one third of its problem here. Can I use the word cronyism contracts, maybe I should not, so let's just say unfair contracts. Many of these supplier contracts are not fair no matter how you cut it. I mean, RM25 for one nasi lemak, or RM3.50 for a stick ofsatay ... pretty hard to justify. I would like to put that contract up for open tender and see how much you save. Presently Brahim has a RM6.25 billion contract over 25 years @ RM250m a year. This was signed back in 2003, must haul up the management and directors for signing this contract. How to justify 25 year contract? Can we rescind, I think there are ample grounds that the contract may be signed on excessively unfair terms for one party, and that some people in management did not act in the best interest of MAS. Go to courts or go back into the room to renegotiate. Food is just one item, you can assume almost ALL supplier contracts need to be renegotiated, MAS is not supposed to be a charitable foundation for slicing off the fat to reward certain people. Go for fuel distribution contracts, maintenance and supply parts contracts.

d) Staffing - Like it or not 20,000 staff is too many for MAS to shoulder when AirAsia can operate profitably on just one-third. The union, please, do something that is best for everyone, sit down and come up with a viable, fair VSS program. Maybe we target 40% cuts via VSS, and no new hires, and mandatory retirement and attrition for 3 years. As staffing is the number two cost after fuel, you have to cut there. Staff must also agree that all units/departments must have KPIs to maintain, e.g. ontime arrival and departure, lost luggage, time to retrieve luggage, wait lines for check in, etc... things that really matter to the end customer.



e) Outsourcing - This is one area which MAS must do really well. I do not think they do this well at all. If they wanted to operate on-line sales, they would go and create a new department, etc... there are blocks of operations that can be managed via outsourcing without reduction in quality and branding. MAS on line site still looks terrible and hard to navigate. Compare that to AirAsia's site, try and count the number of clicks to get to a decision, the ease to navigate search functions, how much info detail you "unecessarily require" potential clients to key in, etc... there are metrics to ensure that the outsourced components can be met by outside parties. Other outsource contracts: cleaning, etc...

f) Brand positioning - MAS has no other edge but to fight against AirAsia and LionAir on pricing. So you are offering to behave like a budget carrier while your cost structure is full service ... anyone from primary school can tell you that it will not work. Because, maybe some will opt for MAS instead of AirAsia if price is almost thesame but that is for that ONE flight. At the end of the day travellers will opt for whichever has the better time schedule to suit themselves as long as cost is not that big a difference. Hence unless MAS has a flight at the same time as all AirAsia flights, it will never work out. The last 3 years have shown that that strategy will only result in AirAsia's profits rising and MAS fortunes continuing to dwindle (because competitive pricing is not the solution, and is only a minor part of the entire problem on MAS shoulders).

Unfortunately, I do not see a way out for MAS here. The only viable solution is to merge with AirAsiaX. MAS is on the same turf as the best managed low cost carrier IN THE WHOLE FUCKING WORLD (AirAsia). We are not talking of Malaysia vsSingapore type of comparison, we are talking of Malaysia vs (Singapore/HK, Norway, Germany, USA) kind of comparison. Unfortunately, it is not entirely MAS fault, even if you get Cathay Pacific to operate from KL as a base, Cathay Pacific will also die, but not as horribly as MAS as they do not have crony capitalism as a cornerstone in their business model, but Cathay Pacific will also die in KL if forced to compete on the same turf as AirAsia - THATS BECAUSE KL/Malaysia is not a hub for businesstravellers, it is the best hub for budget travellers, thanks to the fact that we have over 2mn foreign workers alone and probably another 2mn illegals.

MAS also needs to get into their head that the bulk of the travellers within their network are flying for less than 4 hour type destinations, which makes business travel not that necessary. Plus you do not have the critical mass for longer haul flights, a big problem that AirAsiaX also has at the moment.



g) Khazanah Baby - All that I have written, Khazanah knows it already. Khazanah, which owns 69% of MAS, backed the recent rights issue. In 2012, Khazanah had tried to cut its stake in the airline, but the powerful Malaysian Airline System Employee Union (MASEU), which represents the airline's 20,000 workforce, rejected a share swap deal with AirAsia. Khazanah has no choice but to put MAS into bankruptcy, only then will the unions come to their senses and only then can MAS renegotiate all the contracts (cause if they do not, they get nothing in the long line of claims against the company, not to mention the years it will take). 

As of end-December, MAS had total debt of 11.7 billion ringgit. Its next major debt repayments are due in mid-2022, when US$455.2 million worth of bonds mature. Bankruptcy need not be a bad thing, Japan Airlines' emergence from bankruptcy to become Asia's most profitable airline in 2012, but the carrier's union really need to play ball during the major restructuring.

h) One World - MAS joined the One World Alliance thinking that could act as a feeder and distributor to higher load factors for them. Unfortunately, we do not have that many global travellers that need reconnecting all the time. The loyalty programs that real travellers in this region RELY on are within their credit cards, they redeem flights, biz class tickets all within their credit cards.

Mr. Government,

You cannot expect MAS to do wonders when you "allow" MAS to shoulder so many burdens, unrelated costs, cronyism ... on a flawed business model, on a management that have their hands tied all the time .... AND EXPECT MAS TO COME OUT SMELLING LIKE ROSES!!! You can do that back in the 80s and 90s when competition was not that hot. Now, every single flight sector, biz class, first class, loyalty prgrams, etc...get enormous competition from all corners. You cannot protect MAS anymore. 

Like Russell Peters would say, "Be a man", come out and make the hard decisions, anyway the real election isn't till a few more years, you can lose the 20,000 voters (and 50,000 indirect voters) but you will gain some credibility. ... and learn from it, ensure all GLCs operate competitively and not laboured under unrelated costs and leakages by cronyism capitalism.

Remember, if you do not make the hard decisions WHILE you can, eventually somebody else will make it for you, and it will look a lot less pretty then (I know that is hard to picture).

Should MAS Went into Bankruptcy? (May 2014)


This is really a multi-billion ringgit question. Since MH370 flew to the great Indian ocean, the share price of MAS also went that deep down under. It has fallen to as low as RM0.15 on 19th May 2014, the lowest level in at least 10 years. It was the most actively traded penny stocks in Bursa Malaysia for past few days.


What should be the best solution for MAS ?

The plunge that day was due to reports saying that Prime Minister is exploring the possibility of letting MAS to file for bankruptcy. Would it be a wise move? Let's us look at a few more alternative ways to rescue MAS financially.

  1. MAS to raise capital via private debts, be it issuing new shares or bonds.
    Easy to issue, but who is going to subscribe for it? In order to make it attractive enough, the bond paper must be backed by government and offering above than average yield. Higher yield means higher financing cost for MAS.

  2. MAS to sold off its assets.
    After various rounds of turnaround plans, what assets still left other than those airplanes? Some more, were those assets have such significant value attached to it... still?

  3. Borrow money from financial institutions.
    Here, I really have to pity those banks whom already borrowed money to MAS. If not because of this "government-linked company" status, I believe they won't borrow at all without a favorable interest charged.

  4. MAS sold down its equity stakes, or being privatized.
    As a national carrier, partnering with another foreign carrier? You must be joking... Unless, it was being privatized and government ceased as shareholder. But, once government letting go his hands, would anyone interested to take over MAS?

  5. Government continue pumping in money.
    Well, this is in fact the most common way seen in Malaysia. Being a GLC, MAS has this privilege since it was being incorporated. But, rakyat already started to voice their concern on how government spend money, especially on those consistent loss-making companies. It was like continue throwing money into Indian ocean once again.



Moreover, the business of MAS already dropped 60% since the missing of MH370. Coupled with a total net debt of around RM7 billion, how long can MAS survive? If government wants to preserved the national icon status, they must ready to pump in another few billion ringgit without money-back guaranteed.

In our opinion, filing for bankruptcy is indeed a wiser move for all parties (other than banks), sorry to say that. This is the only fastest way to clear all the current bad debts and start all over again for MAS. If Japanese airline JAL can done it successfully few years back and making profit now, why not MAS ?

Tuesday, 7 January 2014

Capitaland: Big Move Down Soon?

Capitaland is currently trading within a down trend channel (3 months) and within a Descending Triangle (6 months consolidation). Current chart is bearish as Capitaland is trading below all 3 SMA & sloping down. Watch the triangle support closely as breaking out from this level (about $2.93) will send Capitaland to the price target of $2.60. Immediate resistance at $3.00 (psychological resistance & triangle resistance).
2014Jan6-Capitaland-800x600
Original post by Marubozu @ My Stocks Investing Journey.
CURRENT P/E RATIO (TTM)12.9825
ESTIMATED P/E(12/2013)18.9744
RELATIVE P/E VS. FSSTI0.9738
EARNINGS PER SHARE (SGD) (TTM)0.2280
EST. EPS (SGD) (12/2013)0.1560
EST. PEG RATIO0.6938
MARKET CAP (M SGD)12,586.06
SHARES OUTSTANDING (M)4,252.05
30 DAY AVERAGE VOLUME6,954,534
PRICE/BOOK (MRQ)0.7923
PRICE/SALE (TTM)3.1460
DIVIDEND INDICATED GROSS YIELD2.36%
CASH DIVIDEND (SGD)0.0700
DIVIDEND EX-DATE05/03/2013
5 YEAR DIVIDEND GROWTH-10.84%
NEXT EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT02/21/2014