Enlightenment and Philosophy

Many people asked me how I know Mewah was going to rally the next day or so and how do I know? My answer was actually very simple. I experienced losses first, understand why I cut losses, be fearless and emotionless then have the conviction and confidence to punt back into the stock. I don't THINK why I made a loss, but I only blame it for my own actions and continue to move forward. To many people, they can't do it because confidence was lost and morale went down to the drain. However, fear and emotion is not in my dictionary. They are just feelings, it comes and it disappears.

I am not a magician nor a super trader, I am just a normal person like you do. Of course, what I had been through in my life made me a stronger and mentally tougher person. I don't ask anyone for tips, I don't ask God to give me anything, but I ask God for inner theme. I don't ask my teacher Robin for directions or why his method doesn't work on me, but I pay my own money to buy experience and losses to understand the game better. Just when everyone thought that charts are the most powerful tool for detecting BBs, I came up with a new strategy of detecting BBs without charts and to me, this is an artless art. Of course, I don't know how many people believed me, but those who seen it themselves was stunned. How did I discover this method again? Was anyone willing to teach me? Was anyone sharing? I don't think so. I learnt it by losing more money so to gain knowledge. However, I will share on my next seminar IF any. I can charge a fee, but I decide to give it free. I don't have time for everyone and I can't please everyone. My time is limited and I have no time for long explanation. When I shared in my seminar, if you grasp it, then it's great, but if you don't I can't help it either because if everything is simple then no one needs to work anymore. Everything is already free and what should one ask for more? If you think I am not sharing, refrain yourself from my seminar or blog. If you dislike me so much, why still visit my blog everyday and come for my seminars? I am going to make sure IF I am holding a seminar again, I will have more stringent controls during the registration process.

Look at the $10k losses on my Mewah, I was practicing a new skill and in the midst I paid some tuition fee. Who gave me sympathy when I made a loss? Can one go through the same process as me and don't feel a tinch of sadness and pain when they took a huge loss? I doubt so because when most people starts to make huge losses, their senses turned wild and became more eager to make back more money. That's fatal because the "eager" and "want" are the intangible elements which would tantamount to more huge losses. The only way is to learn to let go and start all over again. I am not rich and my account size is not very huge. I grow it from a small account to something I think it's acceptable today. So my point is, always be yourself, express yourself, have faith in yourself, do not go out and look for a successful personality and duplicate it. To me, that's the road to success.

Ronald K - Market Psychologist - The Big Speculator

Alexander Elder Seminar Review Day 1 Morning

• Trading

by Martin Lee

Over the weekend, I was at a seminar given by Dr Alexander Elder, a world renowned trader and international bestselling author.

The first session on Saturday morning was held at Marina Bay Sands and was attended by a crowd of more than 800 people.

The session also included a market outlook segment given by Joshua Tan from Phillip Securities, and a brief introduction to warrants given by Henry Ng from Macquarie.

Dr Elder was given two hours to complete his presentation “To trade or not to trade”, which was supposed to be meant for beginners.

I wouldn’t call myself a beginner but I decided to be there anyway. I figured it was not often that I would be able to catch Dr Elder deliver a seminar. I happened to bump into an old friend from NUS days during the event, who was also far from a beginner. In fact, my friend is currently a full time investor and he’s only in his 30s!

The first question that Dr Elder posed was whether anyone could become a successful trader. He commented that those people who had addiction problems, or were very obsessed over every single cent, or were impulsive should not trade.

Trading by itself is not intellectually difficult. But once money is involved, it becomes emotionally very difficult. Whatever your weakness is, the market will find it and hit at it. If you are fearful, the market will make you afraid and if you are greedy, the market will exploit your greed.

It is better for someone new to trading to do it part-time while still keeping his or her day job. A beginner does not really need live data as he can trade using a longer time-frame. In fact, using live data should only be used by the professionals. Looking at live prices can induce impulsive trades, which is a bane to any traders.

Dr Elder then started showing some charts (he relies on technical analysis more than fundamental analysis) to give us a rough idea of some of his methods and thinking. As the information wasn’t presented in a linear fashion, I had a feeling some people in the audience could have gotten lost here.

Not to be confused by all the charts, one point he made that stood out was that the best trading decisions are usually negative decisions. ie deciding not to do anything. You might look at ten charts and eight of them do not trigger your buy or sell condition. In those instances, you should not do anything. You only act when your chart tells you to.

A lot of amateurs make the mistake of looking a chart, and then trying to decide whether to take a long or short position based on what they see. Often, doing nothing might be the best policy as you really only want to take trades that have a high probability of success.

Dr Elder ended his talk by answering some questions and giving a 1-minute recap of some important points in trading.

1. Keep a trading journal.
2. Know the difference between price and value.
3. Look at the chart of a longer time frame to decide your overall strategy before looking at the shorter time frame chart to make your tactical decisions.
4. Risk no more than 2% of your risk capital on every trade.
5. Stop trading for a while if you have a 6% drawdown on your capital.

We then took the shuttle bus which bought us to DBS auditorium for the afternoon’s session.

Why it is a sell now?

Why it is a sell now?

I am too tired to write as I have 'training' the whole day. But I do want to send this post out ...

Last week, a young new lecturer asked me about investment in stock-markets!! Yup, she and bf thinking of buying a property for investment and asked me about my opinions on going into stock-markets!! So, I simply advised her to WAIT for stock-market to dive down, wait for BAD news around and I gave her 10 good dividend stocks to choose from --- when market diving with darkest cloud around, with fear ... buy 30% on a stock. If it dive lower by 10% or so, buy another 30%. Lastly, buy all you can when it goes down another 10%-20% ... then HOLD.

Ouch ... yeah, you will get scared with such an advice as all people want to hear is ... today can buy as it is VERY bullish?

Then, the cleaner aunty overheard our conversation and also interested to know. I just said ... sorry, I m busy and have to go. Also, advised her NEVER to go into stock markets!!

Today, someone asked me about my blog and thinking of joining my stock-watch. To be fair to her, it is already mid-of-FEB ... I wont be posting any stock much ... it is a SELL SELL ... sell for me. So, I allowed her to 'try' out my page for 2weeks ... and she can continues into Mac if she is interested.

Now ... I was reminded again and again .... that I am 'always' wrong with my view in markets!! My flawed opinions have been challenged for no good reasons. I am merely stating my own views in markets in my own blog. Why should it bother anyone? I am NOT controlling the markets, right? Use some common-sense ...use that now before GREED overtook your emotions.

This weekend will be the third weekend I failed to buy "The Edge" as it was sold out in Mydin. So, I know ... it is becoming VERY laku now ... another reasons to know that it is time to keep away!! When crowds move in, do get out ... you might suffocate to death ... arrghh ... help ... we are in the bull  ....

Pause ... finally, the forums becoming VERY noisy!! It is so noisy that even non-related to stock-market's forums also talking about some stocks to buy!! You may want to go to RHB's, CNX's, i3-investor's or investlah ... or whatever-lah forums. It is becoming very noisy now. Do you know how I trade? Yup ... move opposite direction!! You knew it, I knew it ... to be contrarian ... but easier said than done, right?

I do not want to spoilt anyone's mood. Buy at your own risk, anyway. I am not 'cursing' the market to go lower next week or next month, ok? I am not saying BN going to lose some seats ... as market collapses like 2008 Mac, ok? I am just merely saying ... the signs are there for us to move aside.

Take a break ... as I will take a break from analysing.

Make sure the trades are short and place your cut-losses tight.

Good luck.

TEH

Personal Market View - HSI inverse-capitulation at 2012/02/08 2.11pm ?

HSI inverse-capitulation at 2012/02/08 2.11pm ?

by ckchoy

A shooting star was noticed at 2.11pm today at about HSI 21000. This may mean the continued uptrend started from Jan till now might have finally reached a short term peak.  

Also noticed penny counters suddenly jumped up fast and furious. This may be a good chance for those big players who have been accumulated low to take profit now. If so market may head for a correction.

Suggest to take profit now especially penny counters that have run up too fast. 

But if HSI breach up 21000 again, the uptrend will continue.

Mid term market still in uptrend, can consider keep buying on dips on asset related counters like properties and commodities.

HSI futures firework

HSI futures firework

Robin Ho - The Greatest Speculator of All-Time

Ever wanted to know what it takes to be a successful trader?  How to profit from Chart Patterns and what techniques to apply to short term trading?  PhillipCapital’s top tier remisier and one of Phillip CFD’s top traders, Robin Ho, answered these questions and more during his seminar on 22nd October 2011.  Drawing on his many years of experience as a trader, Ho shared with the audience how the current market situation is meant more for mid to short term trading rather than long term investments.  To add, the increased volatility may be due to the proliferation of auto or algorithmic trading.

Reiterating his view stated during his previous seminar in March, Ho said that traditional indicators such as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) are not as useful as simple trend lines which are able to show traders how the particular stock or index is doing.  In addition, successful traders often rely on price action (i.e. volume and price) to determine trends, which are especially important in trading because everything moves in cycles.  Thus, another attribute that traders must have is flexibility – being able to change one’s trading strategy in tandem with the market.  This is where Ho uses Contracts for Difference (CFD) as it allows him to long and short the market with relatively low execution costs.

Many members of the audience asked for advice on intra-day and short term trading, to which Ho replied that intra-day trading is definitely not something for novice traders.  He even admitted that despite his experience, he finds it tricky to intra day trade.  Nevertheless, according to Ho, a successful trader (be it in the short or long term) needs the following characteristics:

• Good understanding of the market(s) one is trading in
• Have a sound and proven trading strategy or strategies
• Charting tools

Having a good understanding of the market means recognising trends as well as ‘danger zones’ when they occur.  It is important to ask yourself the following questions when observing any charts, “Where am I in the big picture? Am I riding up, down or sideways in this trend?”  If one is trading on the short term, they should look at charts with shorter time frames while those trading on the long term should look at charts with longer time frames.  For example, Ho uses a 1-minute chart and a 30-minute chart whenever he does intra-day trades.  Moreover, using multiple charts with multiple time frames increases the accuracy of one’s interpretation of the trend.  Nevertheless, there is no magic formula to earn profits all the time whilst trading and it is key to have proper money management.

Based on Ho’s observation, the Asian markets will be greatly affected by the goings on in Europe.  As such, even if one does not trade in the European market, it is imperative to look at the DAX (Deutscher Aktien IndeX) as it closely affects the movement of the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong and is a leading indicator.  To add, one has to be cautious because a recession in Europe is expected and as such, the market has already priced that into the European stocks.  Thus, when European stocks hit a low, it is best to be patient and watch these stocks as European banks may rise again from that point.

From the economic data, the European crisis is in fact more serious than the US as the US is dealing with a bank crisis while Europe is experiencing sovereign debt crises.  The irony is that the best performing index so far is the Dow Jones.  Ho also mentioned that the Euro crisis was an issue that the world was aware about a year ago but nothing much was done to prevent it from disintegrating to the situation it is today.  Due to the similarities, Ho warned the audience to be wary about the shadow-lending business in China as he foresees this becoming an issue with China companies in the near future.

Ronald K - Market Psychologist - The Big Speculator

CLSA Fengshui Index 2012

Actual

市场意识 17/01/2012

中国上证出其不意猛涨，香港恒生在忙于追随，本地措手不及，忽然间轻舟已闯过万重关。

市场意识 13/01/2012

上上上，涨呀！涨呀！涨呀！不知不觉第二关阻力已被敲打

Personal Market View - Market sense 11/01/2012

by ckchoy

静悄悄的，不知不觉的，多支股突破短期阻力! 我常盯住的恒生指数HSI 也不知不觉的慢慢爬回来19100点，hmm 似乎已站稳在这水平。

如果这算是有力的突破而你是乐观者，这意味着市场还再预期着什么动力的来临，这也代表市场还会再继续上升。

如你是悲观的看待，或等一股快而强有力的急升，开始在高位抛空(opposite of capitulation)。