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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳:懂得善用信息才能钓到大鱼
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this are personal views. No liability is accepted for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on the information provided herein.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Tuesday, 4 December 2012

胡立阳:懂得善用信息才能钓到大鱼


[导读]回顾过去二、三十年来,在世界各地演讲会中,我曾回答了投资朋友们所提出之各式各样的问题。现决定在此专栏中择其精华,与网友们分享当时我的小小研究心得,也希望能继续得到大家的支持与鼓励。

问:我的理财顾问建议我每天都要看些专业媒体报导,这样才能知道该买些什么。但我试过一段时间之后就放弃了,因为跟着利多跑,总是接到最后一棒,很容易变成帮别人抬轿子的轿夫吧?
胡: 问的真好!现在,就让我来跟你分享一个投资小秘密吧。过去,在网络还不发达的那个年代,我们公司曾有一位客户,每天都捧着四、五份财经专业报纸仔细研读, 并且还会认真去做笔记,厚厚一本的日记本,里面记下了密密麻麻的重点新闻。当时的我还只是个华尔街的新兵,对他的研究精神虽然感到佩服,但内心不免感到存 疑,他是太闲了吗?任何新闻只要上报,不已经是人尽皆知,还有钱可以赚吗?特别是,当时行情低迷,连我也认为,看再多的信息也没有用啊!
但事后证明,他的长期投资成绩单,总是令人惊艳。因为他经常能早人一步,买在股价的最低档。
他悄悄地跟我说,绝大多数的人,看股市讯息的目的,都是希望第二天就能买进一支飙股然后立刻赚大钱。但他发现,真正能让人赚大钱的消息,往往不会立即发酵,反而是当时大家都没注意,或是早已被忘却且放弃了一段时间之后的那种。

他 举例说,某家公司宣布由第四季开始扩厂效益终于要实现了,会开始转亏为盈。但由于现在才是第二季,没有太多人会认真看待这则新闻,也许股价在下面几天也是 毫无反应,但他就会等到在第四季来临的前一个月左右,天天开始全神贯注的观察股价是否已出现任何动静,就像是个经验丰富的钓鱼老手似的,懂得在对的时间与 对的地点钓鱼,只要鱼汛一出现,他就会是那第一个钓到大鱼的人。因此,他特别强调,在广泛收集财经讯息的同时,是一定要作笔记的,但千万注意,不能只将今 天看到的某个讯息就放在当天的日记栏中而已,还要将它记录在未来利多实现日的往前一个月,到时就可提前密切观察股价的变化,然后守株待兔。

现 在,我们再以2008年下半年油价开始崩跌为例,许多航空公司当时便纷纷预估半年之后,获利会因油价成本降低而大幅增加。股价当时并无太大反映,而是一直 到了2009年第二季,也就是半年之后,全球的许多航空股才真正的出现了一波极为亮丽的走势。你如果事先做了笔记,就会是第一个坐在轿子上的人了,不是 吗?

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