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Market Sense 市场意识: Daniel Loh 11月5日 FM958电台访问:美国股市9月到底部的3大原因!
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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Wednesday, 11 November 2015

Daniel Loh 11月5日 FM958电台访问:美国股市9月到底部的3大原因!


·        美国股市9月到底部的3大原因

美国昨天闭市在17868点。很高兴的是美国股市这一个月的走势确实按照我们所说的。一个月前和两个星期前,我们都说我们确实看好美国第4季度的股市。

一个月前美国道琼斯指数还在16000点。短短一个月已经涨了1800点。现在离历史高点只差500点了。新加坡海指也从一个月前的2750点涨到了现在3030点。

今天我想提3点为什么我们当时会觉得16000点,9月的时候会是低点。以后大家就可以自己炒作。


(关于我9月和10月说的访谈)
9月10日 FM958电台访问:世界股市有救吗?

10月8日 FM958电台访问:美国股市第4季度会反转吗?
http://www.danielloh.com/2015/10/daniel-loh-108-fm9584.html


第一:
我们还是觉得美国市场还是一个大牛市当中。因为利率还是非常低。只要利率低,熊市就不会来临因为股市跌多了,热钱就会进来。大家不用害怕熊市的来临。也不要相信任何恐慌的说法。

第二:
既然美国还在牛市当中,我发现只要道指跌破200天的移动平均线(200MA),股市在两周内必定见底。如果大家会用图表,可以自己画出200天的均线。这一条线是牛市的生命线。只要跌破这一条线,我发现两周以内大家就一定看到谷底。这一次跌破了,3天就到谷底。两周后,股市刚好就在16000点。因此我们也是因为这一点一个月前跟大家说可以开始看股票了。

第三:
我们也发现,道琼斯指数如果还是一个牛市,最多会跌一个10-15%。这一次跌深了。但是也刚好只跌15%。如果大家拿最高点18351X0.85 = 15600点。这一次道指跌最深时15400点,当天就反弹了。以后大家记得,只要我们还是牛市,只要道指跌15%,通常都是非常好的机会。


·        新加坡海指3000-3250范围

一个月前,海指从2750点跑了上来。现在是3030点了。虽然已经跑了10%,但是我还是觉得还有往上升的空间。我还是看好道指第4季度的表现。美国会有许多的节日,可能还会带动股市。因此我觉得海指还有望上升。

我判断第4季度,海峡指数可能会在3000-3250点徘徊。3000点就是低点,3250点就是高点。如果到了3250点,大家一定要小心。

我鼓励大家稍微留意一下农务大众商品的股票。我觉得2016年这一类的股票有可能表现会不错。


·        谁说中国股市进入熊市??

我们都一直在节目中强调,中国股市现在在牛市的第二个阶段,不要害怕。我们预测上证指数都会一直在3000-4500点跑动。现在是3450点了。我觉得还是相当便宜的。虽然大家看到中国的经济数据一直很不好,但是股市还是上了。


我鼓励大家留意一些中国房地产的公司。只要利率一直下滑,房地产公司一定获利。

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