Wilmar Down 2.6%; Norway’s Wealth Fund Exits Segment ~ DJ Market Talk

Wilmar Down 2.6%; Norway’s Wealth Fund Exits Segment ~ DJ Market Talk

0709 GMT [Dow Jones] Wilmar (F34.SG) is down 2.6% at S$3.34, with an
analyst saying the decline follows news Norway's NOK3.82 billion sovereign
wealth fund pulled out the shares of 23 palm oil companies due to concerns
over deforestation. Thomson One data indicates the fund previously held
around 0.25% of Wilmar's shares outstanding, or 16.3 million shares; the
fund's website indicates it no longer holds any Wilmar shares. First
Resources (EB5.SG) is off 3.5% at S$1.79. Thomson One data indicates the
fund held 0.16% of First Resources' outstanding shares, or 2.61 million
shares, while the fund's website indicates it doesn't hold the shares any
longer. 

Learning cycle of a Trader

Learning cycle of a Trader

amarnath

(Sad to say, most of the people, about 90% will drop out after stage 2, coincide with the data 90% of the traders fail )

Step One: Unconscious Incompetence.

This is the first step you take when starting to look into trading. you know that its a good way of making money cos you've heard so many things about it and heard of so many millionaires.Unfortunately, just like when you first desire to drive a car you think it will be easy - after all, how hard can it be?? - price either moves up or down - what's the big secret to that then - lets get cracking!

unfortunately, just as when you first take your place in front of a steering wheel you find very quickly that you haven't got the first clue about what you're trying to do. you take lots of trades and lots of risks. when you enter a trade it turns against you so you reverse and it turns again .. and again, and again.

you try to turn around your losses by doubling up every time you trade - sometimes you'll get away with it but more often than not you will come away scathed and bruised

Well this is stage one - you are totally oblivious to your incompetence at trading.Stage one can last for a week or two of trading but the market is usually swift and you move onto stage two.

Stage Two - Conscious Incompetence

Stage two is where you realise that there is more work involved in this and that you might actually have to work a few things out.

you consciously realise that you are an incompetent trader - you don't have the skills or the insight to turn a regular profit.

During this phase you will buy systems and e-books galore, read websites based everywhere from Russia to the Ukraine. and begin your search for the holy grail.

During this time you will be a system whore - you will flick from method to method day by day and week by week never sticking with one long enough to actually see if it does work. every time you came upon a new indicator you'll be ecstatic that this is the one that will make all the difference.

you will test out automated systems on Autotraders, you'll play with moving averages, Fibonacci lines, support & resistance, Pivots, Fractals, Divergence, DMI, ADX, and a hundred other things all in the vein hope that your 'magic system' starts today.

you'll be a top and bottom picker, trying to find the exact point of reversal with your indicators and you'll find yourself chasing losing trades and even adding to them cos you are so sure you are right.

You'll go into the live chat room and see other traders making pips and you want to know why it's not you - you'll ask a million questions, some of which are so dumb that looking back you feel a bit silly. You'll then reach the point where you think all the ones who are calling pips after pips are liars - they cant be making that amount cos you've studied and you don't make that, you know as much as they do and they must be lying. but they're in there day after day and their account just grows whilst yours falls.

You will be like a teenager - the traders that make money will freely give you advice but you're stubborn and think that you know best - you take no notice and over leverage your account even though everyone says you are mad to - but you know better.

you'll consider following the calls that others make but even then it wont work so you try paying for signals from someone else - they don't work for you either.

This phase can last ages and ages - in fact in reality it can last well over a year - My own period lasted about 18 months.

Eventually you do begin to come out of this phase. You've probably committed more time and money than you ever thought you would, lost 2 or 3 loaded accounts and all but given up maybe 3 or 4 times.

Then comes stage 3

Stage 3 - The Eureka Moment

Towards the end of stage two you begin to realise that it's not the system that is making the difference.

you realise that its actually possible to make money with a simple moving average and nothing else IF you can get your head and money management right

You start to read books on the psychology of trading and identify with the characters portrayed in those books.

Finally comes the eureka moment.

The eureka moment causes a new connection to be made in your brain.

you suddenly realise that neither you, nor anyone else can accurately predict what the market will do in the next ten seconds, never mind the next 20 mins.

You start to work just one system that you mould to your own way of trading, you're starting to get happy and you define your risk threshold.

You start to take every trade that your 'edge' shows has a good probability of winning with.

when the trade turns bad you don't get angry or even because you know in your head that as you couldn't possibly predict it it isn't your fault - as soon as you realise that the trade is bad you close it . The next trade will have higher odds of success cos you know your simple system works.

You have realised in an instant that the trading game is about one thing - consistency of your 'edge' and your discipline to take all the trades no matter what.

You learn about proper money management and leverage - risk of account etc etc - and this time it actually soaks in and you think back to those who advised the same thing a year ago with a smile

you weren't ready then, but you are now.

The eureka moment came the moment that you truly accepted that you cannot predict the market.

Then comes stage four

Stage 4 - Conscious Competence

Ok, now you are making trades whenever your system tells you to.

you take losses just as easily as you take wins

you now let your winners run to their conclusion fully accepting the risk and knowing that your system makes more money than it loses and when you're on a loser you close it swiftly with little pain to your account

You are now at a point where you break even most of the time - day in day out, you will have weeks where you make 100 pips and weeks where you lose 100 pips - generally you are breaking even and not losing money.

you are now conscious of the fact that you are making calls that are generally good and you are getting respect from other traders as you chat the day away.

You still have to work at it and think about your trades but as this continues you begin to make more money than you lose consistently.

you'll start the day on a 20 pip win, take a 35 pip loss and have no feelings that you've given those pips back because you know that it will come back again.

you will now begin to make consistent pips week in and week out 25 pips one week, 50 the next and so on.

this lasts about 6 months

then comes Stage Five

Stage Five - Unconscious Competence

Now were cooking - just like driving a car, every day you get in your seat and trade - you do everything now on an unconscious level.

you are running on autopilot. You start to pick the really big trades and getting 100 pips in a day is becoming quite normal to you.

This is trading utopia - you have mastered your emotions and you are now a trader with a rapidly growing account.

you're a star in the trading chat room and people listen to what you say. you recognise yourself in their questions from about two years ago.

you pass on your advice but you know most of it is futile cos they're teenagers - some of them will get to where you are - some will do it fast and others will be slower - literally dozens and dozens will never get past stage two but a few will.

Trading is no longer exciting - in fact it's probably boring you to bits - like everything in life when you get good at it or do it for your job - it gets boring - you're doing your job and that's that.

You can now say with your head held high "I'm a trader"

life of a trader - tradebandit

life of a trader - tradebandit

Ok guys, straight up when it comes to trading. It's difficult. Who ever says otherwise is already a millionaire or just trying to lure you into some "follow me and I'll make you rich" scheme.

The only truth that I can tell you from my own experience is that if you want to become successful then don't think that only by signing up to some online trading room or having some software, or just blindly following someone's calls will automatically make you consistent. Sure you may have a winning streak, but hey guess what, sooner or later you will have an even bigger losing streak unless you develop your own proper structure and discipline. Sure all these things (trade-room, mentors..) do help and greatly speed up your learning curve, absolutely, and it can give you an edge, but any edge is useless unless you understand how to use it correctly.

Trading is a reflection of who you are, and the only person who can make you into a successful trader is YOU and you alone. Sure you can have mentors, and someone to lead you and show you the right path, and be a part of a really profitable online trade room, but in the end unless you can trade successfully on your own without someone else's signals all the time, you will sooner or later fail. I can say this now because I had to learn the hard way until I became successful. Trial and error, over and over and over again, making same mistakes, losing more and more money, until one day it finally all just clicked. That day had to come on its own, and it had to come from within. I had it all, professional mentors, I was, and still am a part of a very very profitable online trade room where the moderators are really amazing traders, great people and helpful mentors.

Today, trading is a profitable career for me, and I'm making a very descent living from trading, but it took a lot of hard work, patience, ambition, and time to get to this stage. So my point is: if you find the right edge and the right mentors and the right place to be, in order to become independent and successful, you must understand that it is a learning process and requires a lot of energy and hard work on your part to get there. It is absolutely possible, but it is not easy until you learn some things on your own skin.

Personal Market View - Penny Counters Run In 2013

by ckchoy

What a topic?! I've never thought that I will write something that is perceived as 'high risk' or 'dangerous' to personal wealth.  But, I realize that even though I try to avoid or stop mentioning it, beginners and newbies will find out and curious.  Hence instead of trying to hide it, why don't openly discuss it, so that more people especially newbies can get more exposure to learn the pros and cons and ultimately, make more than lose more.
It is like parents/school used to try to stop children from sex curiosity; now school realize they can't stop it and instead give early sex awareness/education. It is like instead of stopping citizen from gambling, we built two IRs and at the same time promote problem gambling awareness to public.......ok stop the long stories and nonsense and let's start.

I learnt the excitement of penny counters punting that was back in 1999. It was the year when Sg Penny Stocks Bubble happened. Almost all the penny counters (from A-Z) valuation ran up way to high, about 10 times their actual value, or P/E more than hundred, few hundreds or even thousands, and worse, with no fundamental like asset value to back them up. Example, a counter which doing business in book selling valued at about 10 cents was speculated/manipulated/played up to $1. Sesdaq (now renamed to Catalist) which measured the performance of counters small in size compared to Main Board, surged from about 30 to 200 within 2 - 3 months, a very short period.  The market volume was extremely high and almost all the people in the street joined the fun. Yes, it burst eventually.  Till now, this penny stocks bubble scenario has never happened since then. I think it is because human learn from mistakes, human learn from lessons and human become smarter.

Let's jump back from 1999 to recent 2 to 3 years, ( because I started my career as a remisier since 2 years plus ago, hence I have better market homework memory from 2011 till now )in 2011 and 2012 market volume (including all, ie blue chips, big caps, small caps penny) was relative low, average about 1 billion per day.  Yes, because of volume is not sustainable, hence penny stocks run was also not sustainable. In my memory, the best penny run period only last about 2 weeks then pause/stop/pull back or even followed by a deeper correction before continued its on and off pop up play.

Started about in mid of Nov 2012, penny stocks have been in focus again, prices are catching up ( to their P/E and asset values ) and most importantly volume has been building up and sustain. Market volume (including all, ie blue chips, big caps, small caps penny) is at average 4.8 billions per day (with record high at 12.2Bil a day), the volume is mostly generated by penny counters. This volume is relatively much higher compared to last 2 years, and also the longest run in my this 2 years experience, till now is about 3 months.  Looking forward, there are more reasons for the penny counters run to continue and will not die down so soon:
1) fresh and sideline cash is waiting to pour in anytime ( fear of being left out )
2) although the run-up has begun and into 3 months, but it looks like the trend is still in the beginning as many penny counters are still in cheap valuation be it using P/E or asset value as guideline (do your own homework).

Discussion:
A conservative/low risk taker sees penny stocks play as a high risk game. But do not forget the analogy, high risk usually will couple with high return. There are real examples which my colleagues or even your friends can make few hundreds thousands in short time let's say within month or months which is good enough to pay 10 years living cost. Ask yourself how many cases blue chips investors can become rich in short time?

A brave, high risk taker sees penny stocks play as a high return tool. But also must be mindful, win big in short time may also can easily lose big in short time.

So what should we do now? Buy/sell/avoid/chase/play/follow?
Instead of paying too much attention on whether which are high risk or low risk investment/games, understand what you are doing is more important. Because if you know what you are doing, you will know how to handle it, and in turn it will mean a low risk game to you.

Which penny counters to play, and how to play are not the topics here. If you are interested, soon you will learn how to play. Once you know how to play, it is whether you can execute it right. And once you have the theory and the practical, this is not the end, you still have to proof it you can do it consistently and finally be persistent  to your way.

Many people fail is not because of lack of knowledge nor lack of practical, they lack of persistent.

颜子伟: 海峡时报指数仍在3,300点挣扎；不用灰心！

海峡时报指数仍在3,300点挣扎；不用灰心！
文： 颜子伟 （译：麦美莹） 2013年02月22日 展望
迎难而上，遇强愈强!

这句话可能是很多投资者的心声，但去年尾当股市开始其升势前，部分投资者感到意兴阑珊。可是，如果投资者有这样的念头是可以体谅的，因为恐惧及劳累令他们心有余而力不足。

自从2008年美国发生金融危机及两年前欧洲债务危机浮现后，投资者在心力及财力上已越来越感到疲惫，因此连投资于股市的心情也欠奉。 谁可以怪责这些投资者？因为在过去6年，股市接二连三地受到危机的打击。谁可以有把握的说欧洲经济不会表现差劲？因为除了欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)去年答应无限量购买主权债券后令信心恢复以外(但至今还未有任何行动)，似乎大部分问题还是未有获得解决。


信心是股票市场的一个重要元素，因为它对市场情绪带来直接影响，而情绪就是在过去三个月来一直推动环球股市走高的催化剂。

提升情绪的主要动力分为两个部分：量化宽松政策及缺乏坏消息。无可疑问，来自量化宽松第三期(QE III)的热钱，一直在推动股市走高； 而由于市场没有坏消息出现(与2011及2012年的情况截然不同)，让投资者有信心重回市场，虽然当升势在去年11月中开始时，很多人还没有察觉到。

当股市继续走高时，不知所措的投资者继续等待无从捉摸的调整出现，但后者似乎不见踪影，而在过去整整三个月里，有意义的调整并没有出现过！

错失机会的投资者
如果投资者错失了这次升势，并正在等待另一个进场机会，那么目前的盘整/调整是让我们进场的好机会。
我们通常听到最多的抱怨是股市经过三个月的升势后，股价有点“过高”，但大家不可以忘记，股市今天的价格反映了投资者对经济未来六个月的展望，如果我们老是以“11月的价格”来相比，投资者如果想再进场就比较困难。

那些不愿意以“市价”进场的投资者就好像那些认为食物价格比三个月前高而拒绝进食的人。不过，我们当然可以选择不作投资，但我们总不可能饿着肚子。可是，历史教训我们，当每个人都进场时，大部分投资者都会一窝蜂进场，即当价格飙升，而每个人都在赚钱的时候。这跟产业市场是不是很相似？我们都不愿意在楼价便宜时买楼，但当楼价高企时，买楼的人却大排长龙，就是因为怕输的心理？

投资者将会很快再次进场，因为在多个原因下，股价今年很可能会升得更高。而买家只会在海峡时报指数升至4,000点才会蜂拥而至?? !! 噢，这只是开个玩笑！

调整不会维持过久的原因
正如之前提到，有意义的调整已经很久没有出现。对于那些还未有进场及那些最近把手头上的股票卖出的投资者来说，当然希望调整的幅度比较大。

健康的调整对股市的长期走势是好事，但我们有理由相信，约10%或更大的调整幅度可能不会出现。

除非基本环境出现变化，即刺激这次升势的理由消失了，否则，任何调整应被视为一个进场的好时机。首先，这次的升势是受到热钱流入股市所推动，而除非美国及日本突然把印钞机的插头拔出，否则，金融系统还有很多流动资金来等待弱势时出击。热钱、存放在低收益资产的资金及闲置着的资金正等待进场，并会为股价带来支持。

QE III 注入了大约450亿美元于金融系统中，而这些资金需要找到一个落脚点。除了投资于低收益资产像政府债券(回报很低)外，部分资金将会流向股市，以寻求较高回报，况且目前的风险胃口已经增加。环球经济重新带来的信心也将会逼使资金买入美国债券，因此，股市将会成为其中的一个受惠者，因为人的贪念会支配这些资金寻求风险较高的资产。

除了因为政府大量印刷钞票而流入的资金，以及高风险资产受追捧成为大势所趋外，另一个将会继续推动股市走高的重要因素是，闲置着的资金正等待着进场。

这些资金是属于那些错过了这次升势的投资者，他们是最焦急的一群，而焦急的意思是他们将会为利而变得贪婪并害怕再次错失机会。这些投资者只是在等待调整或乐观催化剂的出现，好让他们再次进场。

看不到会令这个小型牛市结束的理由
没错，美国股市进入了调整模式，而亚洲股市开始跟随，因为害怕美国联储局会提前结束刺激措施。可是，美国经济还未有完全恢复过来，让联储局可以这样做。因此，联储局很可能会采取这个步骤的“谣传”只不过是牛市想找借口稍作喘息。

有消息指出，中国政府要求地方当局限制产业买卖，令上海综合指数下跌3%。这则新闻可能会令人真的有点担忧，但地方政府一直以来都阳奉阴违，理由是减少卖地会直接影响他们的收入，而这正是为何中央政府花了这么长的时间还未能抑制楼价。

除非新的危机出现，或者是各国政府的政策出现基本变化，否则目前的调整可被视为一个技术性的调整，并不会改变今年的上升趋势。

上证综合指数预期会在2,230至2,250点找到支持，而海峡时报指数、道琼斯工商指数及恒生指数则分别将会在3,160至3,230点、13,450至13,600点及22,000至22,400点找到支持。


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 22/02/13

Moody's Rating Action: Noble's outlook revised to stable from negative

 Global Credit Research - 01 Mar 2013


Hong Kong, March 01, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service has today affirmed the Baa3 issuer rating for Noble Group Limited (Noble). At the same time, the outlook on the rating has been changed from negative to stable.

RATINGS RATIONALE

"The change in outlook follows the announcement of Noble's 2012 financial results, which showed continued deleveraging efforts and the maintenance of a strong liquidity profile," says Laura Acres, a Moody's Senior Vice President.

Noble's 2012 operating results were broadly in line with expectations. The company achieved record 2012 revenues of US$94.0 billion, substantially driven by the energy segment, supported by strong contributions from existing assets and off-take agreements.

Reported EBITDA held steady at $1.15 billion, while adjusted EBITDA declined by 3.0% given the reduced adjustment for time charter rent expense.

Reported debt fell by 8.1% to US$5.6 billion -- the lowest level since Q2 2010 - as Noble continued to focus on improving working capital efficiency. Balance sheet cash excluding restricted cash with futures brokers declined to US$604 million, however, post balance sheet date Noble received some $354 million in cash as part of the final settlement in the merger between Gloucester Coal and Yancoal Australia.

"Adjusted net debt/EBITDA for 2012 was 3.8x. Given the cash inflows in respect of Gloucester Coal in January 2013, pro forma adjusted net debt/EBITDA stands at 3.6x. Retained cash flow (RCF)/adjusted net debt improved to 12.9% in 2012 from 9.7% in 2011, while the pro forma figure was 13.7%," says Acres, also Moody's Lead Analyst for Noble.

We expect that financial metrics will show further improvement in H1 2013 given: the inflow of US$354 million in January 2013 from the Gloucester Coal merger, proceeds of which have been applied to reducing net debt; repayment of US$500 million of 8.5% bonds in May 2013, which have been refinanced with a mixture of cash and lower cost debt; further asset recycling initiatives; and management focus on reducing operating and finance costs by US$100 million. The move away from an asset-medium strategy toward asset-light should also help to improve leverage metrics.

Further comfort can be drawn from Noble's sound liquidity profile, with free cash—excluding restricted cash with futures brokers--of around US$1 billion (pro forma for the Gloucester Coal proceeds received in January 2013) and undrawn committed credit facilities of around US$5.3 billion as of end 2012. This is sufficient to cover all of its total reported debt outstanding of US$5.6 billion.

The stable outlook reflects Noble's weak, albeit improving, financial profile and its ongoing efforts and initiatives to improve its financial profile through a combination of underlying growth, asset recycling initiatives and cost reduction measures.

Given the company's modest credit metrics, an upgrade in the near term is unlikely. However, upward rating pressure could materialize if Noble can improve its financial profile by further enhancing its RCF and containing its debt levels, for example through asset monetization, such that RCF/adjusted net debt is in excess of 25% and adjusted net debt/EBITDA falls below 2.5x.

On the other hand, downward rating pressure could emerge if: 1) liquidity weakens, 2) the company undertakes aggressive debt-funded expansion, and, 3) its financial profile deteriorates over an extended period. Credit metrics that Moody's would consider include adjusted net debt/EBITDA remaining above 3.5x-4x and RCF/adjusted net debt failing to trend towards 20%.

The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Commodity Merchandising and Processing Companies Industry Methodology published in December 2011. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

Noble is the largest global physical commodities supply chain manager in Asia. Its diversified activities across the supply chain include the sourcing, storage, processing, transportation, and distribution of over 20 commodity products. Noble's key reporting segments are agriculture; energy; and metals, minerals and ores. Noble is also partially back-integrated into some commodities through its ownership of assets and infrastructure across the supply chain.

Headquartered in Hong Kong, Noble has offices at 140 locations globally. The company is publicly traded on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Founder and Chairman, Richard Elman, holds about 22% of Noble. It is also around 15%-owned by China Investment Corporation (CIC), the Chinese sovereign wealth fund, and about 1% owned by Korea Investment Corporation (KIC), the Korean sovereign wealth fund.



REGULATORY DISCLOSURES

For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.

For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.

Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody's legal entity that has issued the rating.

Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating.

DIY STI ETF

How much will it cost?

About $300K at last Friday market closing price.

Investment thinking model

US Energy sector is going down; Fear rises

Yesterday morning, we mentioned that Energy sector is going down. Yesterday it proves. We are inch perfect in our predictions. Our market sentiment indicator shows that Energy stocks are turning bearish fast. Look at how the Energy sector ETF, XLE is doing yesterday night. It is bringing the index down. Big Long Red Candle down. It will be the leading and first sector to go down this time.

Consider finding some energy stocks to short to hedge against your bullish position. And I encourage you to profit take some if you have bullish positions at hand.

With the VIX volatility up 30% 2 times in the last 4 sessions, I really think this is a sign that the market has become uncertain and panic seeping in, and be prepared the market might be going down soon. Btw, VIX is the study of how volatile the S&P 500 is, and it is normally inversely correlated with stock market.

But I also did mention, the real downwards momentum have not start yet. Remember, March , may be the critical month to watch!

Rgds
Daniel

A couple of sectors turning bearish in US

A couple of sectors has turned bearish in US market. Look at our market sentiment indicator.
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/02/market-sentiment-indicator-for-25-feb.html

Healthcare sector and Energy sector have both turned bearish last Friday on 22 Feb 2013. This serves as a caution for us to cut down on our long position exposure and reiterates our view that the market may be in for a consolidation in March or early April. If S&P 500 stocks or Technological sector or Energy sector turns down too, that will really signal the end of this bullish run.

Market moves in cycles. If you want to make BIG money, pray that the market drops soon! Buying at this high point now can only serve as a SMALL Ang Bao.

Our Trading Advice:
1) For those of us who still have a lot of long positions and you are a short term trader, our advice is to profit take some of it.
2) For those who invest in long term (2-3years), get really your money to buy some when your stock falls.
3) For those who have Patience and Cash and not inside market yet, you will have your chance 3 months later.
4) For those who still wants to go in, select individual stocks carefully.
5) For those who wants to insure your portfolio, start to locate some stocks good for shorting or some defensive stocks good for hedging.

Friday's 100 points move in Dow Jones to me may be just an illusion. This market just needs a catalyst for a downside move. Perhaps this Friday's ISM or next Friday's Non Farm Payroll is a curtain raiser.

Rgds
Daniel