2011年07月11日 07:43
来源： 金融界网站
金融界网站讯 据港媒报道，内地CPI 在6 月上升了6.4%，创下08 年以来新高；不过，《信报》首席顾问曹仁超在本报举办论坛上指出，CPI 在今年第三季已见顶，预期CPI 将由7月起逐步回落。他指出，内地将在7 月至8 月再一次上调存款准备率，人民币亦会加息多一次，届时内地银根收紧期才会完结。
至于全球下半年的投资环境，曹仁超指出，全球农业产品会再次进入丰收期，令农产品价格下跌，或会影响农产品股的表现。至于油价，曹仁超认为，油价和矿产价格上升的趋势将结束，并进入平稳期。对于美国经济，曹仁超表示，不相信美国将出现双底衰退，指出美国联储局主席贝南奇已利用货币政策消除美国双底衰退情况。
谈到选股，除味千中国（538）和六福集团（行情,资讯,评论）（590）等内需概念股外，曹仁超下半年看好高科技股，因为国家的「十二．五」规划支持高科技行业发展；另一方面，由于内地大幅度加薪，曹仁超看淡劳工密集的工业股。至于资源股，曹仁超认为会个别发展，内地银行股则进入收紧期。
赵善真：无必要保留联汇
now 财经台资深评论员赵善真表示，看好高科技股，但他提醒地缘政治的紧张关系，将影响中国的经济政策。至于香港的经济环境，赵善真认为，贫富悬殊、经济底子薄弱、财团大举北移等因素，已开始削弱香港的优势。
另外，赵善真认为没有需要保留联系汇率， 「还要联系汇率做什么？」他又指「不解决联系汇率解决不了通胀」；即使取消联系汇率，本港的楼价亦不会有太大改变。
他表示，本港楼市有三至四成是内地客，但由于人民币升值，在内地客眼中，香港楼价便宜，而且正在下跌。他又指，供求决定资产价格，但香港楼市现时的供应量少，08、09 年只有八千至九千个单位落成，加上息口低，令香港的楼价不断攀升。
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 金融界
Publish date:11/07/11
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