目前股市是牛市？還是熊市？
市場上至少有三種說法，第一種說法是牛市已死，熊市剛剛開始；第二種說法是牛市未死，目前的調整只是牛市中的大調整；第三種說法是過去兩年多的升市根本就不是牛市，牛市從未出現過，過去兩年的升市只是熊市的反彈。
我認為牛市、熊市之爭根本是無聊的行為。
何謂牛市？何謂熊市？如何下定義？
牛市熊市根本沒有甚麼科學化的定義。
牛熊定義眾多
牛市熊市之稱根本是華爾街一種流行語罷了，有好幾個不同的定義。
有人對牛市的定義是當股市由低位往上升，能衝破上一次歷史高位，即為牛市。若以此為定義，牛市的來臨是不可能預先知道，只能在股市（一般以主要的指數為準）升破歷史新高才能確定。若以此為定義，過去二十年，日本就一直是處於熊市，長達二十多年的熊市。
也有人較技術性地為牛熊市下定義，即主要指數跌破二百五十天移動平均線稱為熊市，升上二百五十天移動平均線稱為牛市。因此，也有人將二百五十天移動平均線視為牛熊分界線。不過，這個定義不可靠，因為指數可以在今日跌破二百五十天移動平均數，也可以在明日升上二百五十天移動平均數。於是，又有人說，要等到五十天移動平均數跌破二百五十天移動平均數才是牛市結束，熊市開始的確認；反之，五十天移動平均數升上二百五十天移動平均數就確認新牛市的開始。
再看看一百多年前，華爾街如何對牛市熊市下定義：一百多年前，牛市熊市之稱到底從何而來已無法考據。不過，創辦《華爾街日報》及創造道瓊斯指數的道氏則在他的《華爾街日報》中提過牛市熊市這個名詞多次。後來，有人將道氏的評論整理成一套所謂的道氏理論，道氏理論成了今日想學股市技術分析的人必定要學的理論。
可是，道氏理論並不是道氏親筆寫成的一套完整理論，正如今日我們可以在書店裏見到數十種，甚至更多的有關今日股神畢菲特的投資理論，這些所謂的畢菲特理論全是他人的作品。當年，道氏在他的文章中提到牛市熊市這個名稱多次，他形容牛市是股市出現長達一年至數年的連續反覆上升，熊市則相反。不過，道氏也說牛市分三期，熊市僅二期，這是不是說牛市期間比熊市長？
賺錢就是好市
既然牛市、熊市有這麼多種不同的定義，辯論目前是牛市還是熊市並沒有多大的意義，還是套句鄧小平的黑貓白貓論更有意思，即不論是牛市熊市，能賺到錢就是好市。今日股市衍生工具繁多，不論是升市跌市，都有人能賺到很多錢，也有人會虧光。記着，股市是一個很熱的廚房，只有耐得了熱的人才適合進入。目前全球股市極不穩定，沽空撈底的風險一樣大，祝大家好運！
輯錄自 416期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn
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