How To Invest In 2013?
by ckchoy
It has been 8 months passed since my last write-up on Personal Market View in 2012 May, where my last updates were mostly trying to spot market bottoms and tops using HSI as reference.
Why spotting bottoms and tops? Because big turning points will occur here, where it offers investors the best entry/exit points with the best reward/risk ratio. We can almost say 'close one eye' also can easily pick any counters to make substantial gain. Eg bottom call on 15 Dec 2011, top call on 8 Feb 2012 and bottom call on 18 May 2012. Now, bottom -> top -> bottom, so when will be a top coming soon?
When Fed Ben declared QE3 with open-ended monthly purchases of bonds in Sep 2012, there is little chance for us to fight against the FED. Hence instead of guessing the next top why don't we plan how to invest our money? Market is flooded with excessive liquidity, causing high inflation, hence keeping cash or putting money in bank should be the last choice.
Below are some suggestions how to invest you money:
The order of 1 to 6 means from conservative to aggressive
Note: 1=lowest risk, lowest possible gain, least homework needed.
6=highest risk, highest possible gain and intensive homework needed
'Least homework needed' means
- only need to do basic homework on a counter eg business nature, dividend yield.
- usually, short term news, market sentiment may only affect the stock price temporary and the counters will come back on track eventually, high chance in short time.
'Intensive homework needed' means
- not only you need to do basic and detailed homework on the counters, you also need to follow any news related to the counter, insiders/syndicate movement using TA, daily news to influence market sentiment, major markets movement that will move the world eg US market, China market.
- Playing and holding them may cause you sleepless night because if you don't monitor this group of counters closely, very high chance, any news or major sentiment shift will cause substantial drop in the stock price and take a very long time to recover or never recover at all.
1. Defensive/Dividend play (Conservative, only target on dividend and little capital gain)
a) Matured counters with good dividend yield record, eg Singtel, SPH, ST Eng, SIA
b) ETF eg STI ETF, China ETF - ETF, which comes with dividend is good enough to match with unit trust as most unit trust track indices or buying only into blue chips.
2. Conservative play on blue chips backed with assets (Conservative, target on dividend with some capital gain)
Besides their earnings, the values of the counters are highly dependent on their NAV(Net Asset Value)
Property counters eg Capitaland.
Commodity counters eg Golden Agri, Noble, Wilmar
3. Growth play on blue chips (Conservative, target on dividend with gradual capital gain)
Good track record on consistency earnings
eg Keppel Corp, Sembcorp, Sembcorp Marine, F&N
4. Riding on momentum on cyclical second liners (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-100% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between $1 to $2/3.
eg NOL, Cosco, Ezra, YangZiJiang
5. Aggressive play on penny counters (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-200% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between 10 cents to $1.
eg Ausgroup, Yoma, Interra Res and many more
6. Multi-bagger bet on super penny counters (Aggressive, almost no dividend and aiming for few folds capital gain)
These counters usually are below 10 cents.
MDR, Contel, Hankore and many more
There is no right/wrong on which counters to choose. Assess yourselves what/which best suits you.
by ckchoy
It has been 8 months passed since my last write-up on Personal Market View in 2012 May, where my last updates were mostly trying to spot market bottoms and tops using HSI as reference.
Why spotting bottoms and tops? Because big turning points will occur here, where it offers investors the best entry/exit points with the best reward/risk ratio. We can almost say 'close one eye' also can easily pick any counters to make substantial gain. Eg bottom call on 15 Dec 2011, top call on 8 Feb 2012 and bottom call on 18 May 2012. Now, bottom -> top -> bottom, so when will be a top coming soon?
When Fed Ben declared QE3 with open-ended monthly purchases of bonds in Sep 2012, there is little chance for us to fight against the FED. Hence instead of guessing the next top why don't we plan how to invest our money? Market is flooded with excessive liquidity, causing high inflation, hence keeping cash or putting money in bank should be the last choice.
Below are some suggestions how to invest you money:
The order of 1 to 6 means from conservative to aggressive
Note: 1=lowest risk, lowest possible gain, least homework needed.
6=highest risk, highest possible gain and intensive homework needed
'Least homework needed' means
- only need to do basic homework on a counter eg business nature, dividend yield.
- usually, short term news, market sentiment may only affect the stock price temporary and the counters will come back on track eventually, high chance in short time.
'Intensive homework needed' means
- not only you need to do basic and detailed homework on the counters, you also need to follow any news related to the counter, insiders/syndicate movement using TA, daily news to influence market sentiment, major markets movement that will move the world eg US market, China market.
- Playing and holding them may cause you sleepless night because if you don't monitor this group of counters closely, very high chance, any news or major sentiment shift will cause substantial drop in the stock price and take a very long time to recover or never recover at all.
1. Defensive/Dividend play (Conservative, only target on dividend and little capital gain)
a) Matured counters with good dividend yield record, eg Singtel, SPH, ST Eng, SIA
b) ETF eg STI ETF, China ETF - ETF, which comes with dividend is good enough to match with unit trust as most unit trust track indices or buying only into blue chips.
2. Conservative play on blue chips backed with assets (Conservative, target on dividend with some capital gain)
Besides their earnings, the values of the counters are highly dependent on their NAV(Net Asset Value)
Property counters eg Capitaland.
Commodity counters eg Golden Agri, Noble, Wilmar
3. Growth play on blue chips (Conservative, target on dividend with gradual capital gain)
Good track record on consistency earnings
eg Keppel Corp, Sembcorp, Sembcorp Marine, F&N
4. Riding on momentum on cyclical second liners (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-100% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between $1 to $2/3.
eg NOL, Cosco, Ezra, YangZiJiang
5. Aggressive play on penny counters (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-200% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between 10 cents to $1.
eg Ausgroup, Yoma, Interra Res and many more
6. Multi-bagger bet on super penny counters (Aggressive, almost no dividend and aiming for few folds capital gain)
These counters usually are below 10 cents.
MDR, Contel, Hankore and many more
There is no right/wrong on which counters to choose. Assess yourselves what/which best suits you.
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