Why I was wrong, by Dick Bove

Why I was wrong, by Dick Bove

Posted by Kate Mackenzie on Nov 28 12:56.

Rochedale’s Dick Bove has pondered why he’s been wrong on the banks — spurred on, he writes, by a Bloomberg survey (which we couldn’t find) showing analysts’ predictions on financial stocks have been dismal over most of the past two years.
The conclusion:

Why Was I Wrong in 2011 and Will This Continue Through 2012?
The answer to the question as to why I was wrong in 2011, and some other analysts may have been as shown in the Bloomberg survey, is clear. I failed to understand that the fears in the market concerning banking were so great that the fundamental improvements in the economy, the industry, and companies like Bank of America and Citigroup would simply be ignored.
The next question that arises concerns whether the fears in the marketplace are reasonable and whether it is true that the banking industry can suffer very negative consequences that do not impact the overall economy. The key issues are these:
Economy: While the economists and others are projecting upward movement in the United States economy, the market is not. It is reflecting fear that the European and Chinese economies will falter and bring the U.S. down with it. While one cannot argue that this will not happen it is important to note that while gross exports are 13.4% of real GDP net exports are 3.0%. Domestically, final sales continue to grow and there is some indication that inventories are too low to support this growth.
Housing: The housing crisis began in 2005, six years ago. Since that time the population has grown by an estimated 15 million people; housing affordability has soared; and housing construction has fallen below what in normal times would be replacement requirements. The crisis in this industry is certainly not over but it is close to ending.
Financial System: the biggest threat to the financial system is not coming from the economy. There are excess funds in the overall economy and in banks. The biggest threat is coming from the Federal Reserve which may be applying draconian standards to the banks crippling their ability to perform. Hopefully, the people in the Federal Reserve will come to their senses driven by a need to assist the economy.
Europe: There is a belief that the European debt crisis will result in a massive financial problem for United States banks. To date there is no evidence of this. In fact, it is clear that the American banks are benefitting meaningfully from this crisis as funds, loans, and customers leave Europe for the U.S. It also seems likely that the European Central Bank will ultimately resolve the debt crisis by accepting the cost of bailing out the profligate nations.
U.S. Financial Stress: There seems to be no likelihood that the U.S. government will resolve its debt problems. The main reason for this is that there seems to be no reason to do so. Money continues to flow into the dollar and the U.S. Treasury from lenders.
Rumors: Investors have fled the market as shown by the decline in mutual fund holdings. Therefore, by default the markets are driven solely by rumors and computer-driven, day-trading programs. In this environment, banks do not fare well since all of the rumors associated with these companies are negative and are likely to remain so.

Despite the stubborn inability of the market to follow Boveian fundamentals, he is maintaining a belief in the upside:

Presumably, at some point, fear will either be realized or dissipate. My assumption is it will dissipate. At this point, the industry’s fundamentals will drive bank stocks much higher. This was my view at the beginning of 2011 and it is my view at present.

市场含着泪收市

by ckchoy

市场含着泪收市
市场最后一天交易已结束，总结了2011。虽说最后一天起落参半，但都在近低位收市，尤其STI，不但见红，还在最低点收市。是历来晨差的年尾效应（橱窗粉饰），惨不忍睹。

一月份效应? Capricorn Effect?
爱的反面是恨，既然无力推高就干脆有多低压多低，至少明年可以轻松的来个开门红，一炮冲天!

Reading this won't make you great!

Business Times - 17 Nov 2007

Reading this won't make you great!

Mark Sellers, founder of a Chicago-based hedge fund, argues that the best investors are born with particular psychological traits that others can never learn

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

WHAT makes someone a great investor? It's something you have to be born with, said Mark Sellers, founder and managing member of Sellers Capital LLC, a long/short equity hedge fund based in Chicago.

Apparently, it's not about your IQ, the education you've had, the books you've read, or the experience you've accumulated. 'If it's experience, then all the great money managers would have their best years in their 60s and 70s and 80s, and we know that's not true,' he said in a speech to a class of Harvard MBA students.

Intelligence and learning are obviously necessary too, and are sources of competitive advantage for an investor, but there are structural assets some possess that cannot be copied or learnt by others. 'They have to do with psychology and psychology is hard wired into your brain. It's part of you. You can't do much to change it even if you read a lot of books on the subject,' said Mr Sellers.

He said that there are seven traits great investors share that are true sources of advantage because they cannot be learned. You are either born with them or you aren't.

The seven traits are:

One, the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking, and the ability to sell at a time when other investors are euphoric. 'Everyone thinks they can do this, but then when October 19, 1987, comes around and the market is crashing all around you, almost no one has the stomach to buy,' Mr Sellers said.

'When the year 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell, because if you do, you may fall behind your peers.

'The vast majority of the people who manage money have MBAs and high IQs and have read a lot of books. By late 1999, all these people knew with great certainty that stocks were overvalued, and yet they couldn't bring themselves to take money off the table because of the 'institutional imperative', as Buffett calls it.'

Two, the great investor has to be obsessive about playing the game and wanting to win. 'These people don't just enjoy investing; they live it. They wake up in the morning and the first thing they think about, while they're still half asleep, is a stock they have been researching, or one of the stocks they are thinking about selling, or what the greatest risk to their portfolio is and how they're going to neutralise that risk.

'They often have a hard time with personal relationships because, though they may truly enjoy other people, they don't always give them much time. Their head is always in the clouds, dreaming about stocks. Unfortunately, you can't learn to be obsessive about something. You either are, or you aren't. And if you aren't, you can't be the next Bruce Berkowitz.'

(Berkowitz was a managing director of Smith Barney and set up his fund Fairholme Capital Management in 1999. Since inception, Fairholme Fund has returned 18.7 per cent annually on average.)

The third trait of a great investor is the willingness to learn from past mistakes. 'The thing that is so hard for people and what sets some investors apart is an intense desire to learn from their own mistakes so they can avoid repeating them. Most people would much rather just move on and ignore the dumb things they've done in the past.

'I believe the term for this is 'repression'. But if you ignore mistakes without fully analysing them, you will undoubtedly make a similar mistake later in your career. And in fact, even if you do analyse them it's tough to avoid repeating the same mistakes.'

A fourth trait is an inherent sense of risk based on common sense. 'Most people know the story of Long Term Capital Management, where a team of 60 or 70 PhDs with sophisticated risk models failed to realise what, in retrospect, seemed obvious: they were dramatically overleveraged. They never stepped back and said to themselves, 'Hey, even though the computer says this is OK, does it really make sense in real life?'

'The ability to do this is not as prevalent among human beings as you might think. I believe the greatest risk control is common sense, but people fall into the habit of sleeping well at night because the computer says they should. They ignore common sense, a mistake I see repeated over and over in the investment world.'

Five, great investors have confidence in their own convictions and stick with them, even when facing criticism. 'Buffett never get into the dotcom mania, though he was being criticised publicly for ignoring technology stocks. He stuck to his guns when everyone else was abandoning the value investing ship and Barron's was publishing a picture of him on the cover with the headline 'What's Wrong, Warren?'. Of course, it worked out brilliantly for him and made Barron's look like a perfect contrary indicator.'

Mr Sellers said that he is amazed at how little conviction most investors have in the stocks they buy. 'Instead of putting 20 per cent of their portfolio into a stock, as the Kelly Formula might say to do, they'll put 2 per cent into it. Mathematically, using the Kelly Formula, it can be shown that a 2 per cent position is the equivalent of betting on a stock which has only a 51 per cent chance of going up, and a 49 per cent chance of going down. Why would you waste your time even making that bet?'

The Kelly Formula arose from the work of John Kelly at AT&T's Bell Labs in 1956. His original formulas dealt with the signal noise of long-distance telephone transmission. It was then adapted to calculate the optimal amount to bet on something in order to maximise the growth of one's money over the long term.

Six, it is important to have both sides of your brain working, not just the left side - the side that's good at maths and organisation. 'In business school, I met a lot of people who were incredibly smart. But those who were majoring in finance couldn't write worth a damn and had a hard time coming up with inventive ways to look at a problem,' said Mr Sellers.

'I was a little shocked at this. I later learned that some really smart people have only one side of their brains working, and that is enough to do very well in the world but not enough to be an entrepreneurial investor who thinks differently from the masses.

'On the other hand, if the right side of your brain is dominant, you probably loathe math and therefore you don't often find these people in the world of finance to begin with.'

So finance people tend to be very left-brain oriented - and Mr Sellers said that that is a problem. A great investor needs to have both sides turned on, he said. 'As an investor, you need to perform calculations and have a logical investment thesis. This is your left brain working. But you also need to be able to do things such as judging a management team from subtle cues they give off.

'You need to be able to step back and take a big picture view of certain situations rather than analysing them to death. You need to have a sense of humour and humility and common sense. And most important, I believe you need to be a good writer.'

He cited Warren Buffett as one of the best writers ever in the business world. 'It's not a coincidence that he's also one of the best investors of all time. If you can't write clearly, it is my opinion that you don't think very clearly,' Mr Sellers said.

And finally the most important, and rarest, trait of all: the ability to live through volatility without changing your investment thought process.

This, said Mr Sellers, is almost impossible for most people to do; when the chips are down they have a terrible time not selling their stocks at a loss. They have a really hard time getting themselves to average down or to put any money into stocks at all when the market is going down.

'People don't like short-term pain even if it would result in better long-term results, he said. Very few investors can handle the volatility required for high portfolio returns. They equate short-term volatility with risk.

'This is irrational; risk means that if you are wrong about a bet you make, you lose money. A swing up or down over a relatively short time period is not a loss and therefore not risk, unless you are prone to panicking at the bottom and locking in the loss.

'But most people just can't see it that way; their brains won't let them. Their panic instinct steps in and shuts down the normal brain function.'

Everyone Is About To Make The Same Mistake They Made In March 2009

Everyone Is About To Make The Same Mistake They Made In March 2009

Earlier we speculated that the European crisis might in fact be over.
The point of the post wasn't to argue that Europe had been solved; rather the point was that crises can and do end without the fundamental problems being solved. So if you're waiting around for a "solution" then you'll inevitably end up missing the turn.
The US crisis of '08-'09 demonstrates this pretty nicely.
Back in the thick of the crisis, what was everyone screaming about?
Well, there was the housing collapse obviously. This was probably the essential economic event, as it set off the wave of defaults and foreclosures hit the financial system like a bomb. Closely associated with the housing collapse was the acknowledgment that consumers had drowned themselves in debt during the boom, and that it would likely take years and years to get back to normal.
And the truth is that these issues have not gone away.
Take a look at revolving consumer credit (credit cards, basically).
While the rate of decline has improved a little bit, consumers remain in non-stop deleveraging mode.

Or consider housing.
According to the government's house price index, 2009 was not the bottom there. That index has hit its lowest level yet earlier this year, fully two years after the stock market bottomed.

While we're at it, here's a big, scary looking at household debt (outstanding) vs. GDP.

The bottom line, which you should hopefully grasp, is that there are some big, honking economic overhangs -- trends that have arguably built up for decades -- that haven't gone away or even improved over the last couple of years. We're going to be wrestling with these for awhile.
But the crisis has gone away, because despite these big issues, the market isn't worried that the whole thing is a sandcastle that's about to blow away. So even as housing market and credit trends have gotten worse, the market has had a really nice 2 or 2.5 year-run.
For what it's worth, it's this contradiction of a crisis being over against the backdrop of ongoing fundamental problems that's caused so many experts to miss the incredible comeback in the market.
So what does this mean for the Eurozone crisis? Well, it's the same: You don't actually need to fix all the fundamental problems for the crisis to end; you just need to be fairly certain that the whole thing isn't headed for total collapse.
Let's back up...
There's no doubt that the Eurozone is deeply flawed. We talk about the problems all the time here, but there are really two huge issues.

• The competitiveness issue: It's very difficult for less productive, peripheral economies to compete. Greece, Italy, et. al. don't have the luxury of competitive currency devaluation like they used to, and so they run ongoing trade deficits with their core neighbors (Germany, chiefly) and it's not obvious how that gets fixed. So-called "internal devaluation" via austerity hasn't really worked at all, and has produced considerable political and social discomfort (which has further exacerbated economic weakness).
• The lack of sovereign currencies issue: A big problem for Italy and others is not their high debt loads, but that they lack their own currency to print. This is crucial as it explains why the UK is a safe haven and France is not. It explains why Sweden is a safe-haven but Finland is not. It explains why Japan has a monster debt-to-GDP but borrows at rates that are the envy of the world.

How are these big issues possibly going to get solved? It's really hard to wrap your head around that. Nothing we've seen so far from any government meeting has been even close to satisfying.
Any "fix" that you could come up with inevitably runs into the politics problem -- the fact that you have 17 sovereign Eurozone countries and none of them want to spend a dime of taxpayer money helping out their peers, especially the peers who live in nice climates on the beach.
Remember this Venn diagram?

Image: Pawelmorski

But as we established with the American crisis of 2008-2009, you don't actually need to solve the underlying problems to end a crisis. All you need is for the markets to think that it's not all about to collapse. The solution can then be worked out over years
So what would it take to end the crisis in Europe? Basically just the assurance that there isn't going to be an imminent banking collapse and that the various governments will be able to continue financing their deficits for awhile. And through two years of crisis meetings, and ECB tinkering, it's possible that we're limping towards some point of stability.
At the last ECB meeting, Mario Draghi announced an unprecedented spate of measures designed to pump liquidity into the system. It may turn out that banks can basically pledge very piece of junk on their balance sheets, including individual loans, as collateral for fresh, badly needed cash. In short, the ECB is doing a lot to stave off a banking collapse. And it may turn out that by plying the banks with so much liquidity, governments are then able to finance their deficits -- a form of arbitrage that FT Alphaville dubs "the Sarko trade", since it was Sarkozy's suggestion that banks use cheap capital to sop up sovereign debt.
There are a lot of problems with this solution: One is that banks themselves have said they don't intend to use cheap liquidity for the purchase of buying sovereign debt, and also the potential size of this trade might not really be big enough.
But this could start to fix the plumbing. And that's key.
Ultimately, the problem in Italy (and Spain and everywhere else) is not that debts and deficits are so big. That's really not the issue.
The problem is that the plumbing is broken...
See in normal times, government deficits should be self-financing in that the government spends, the private sector gets that money, that money then eventually gets deposit into a bank, which then uses those deposits to buy government debt (presumably because it's risk-free) and the process is repeated and everything works out fine. But clearly in Europe that all broke down. Greece convinced everyone that government debt is not risk free, and money flowed from peripheral banks to German banks (and Swiss banks) depriving the government of natural debt buyers. This is why, for example, Richard Koo has proposed the radical solution of governments only being able to sell debt to their own citizens -- basically so that the plumbing remains intact and money doesn't "leak" out.
If you start to fix the plumbing, you could get to where governments can start financing their deficits at sustainable rates again. Even if deficit targets are missed it can be okay provided that spending gets plumbed back into government bonds.
This isn't a "solution" but it is how the crisis could end.
People are in a state of panic right now. This is nicely illustrated by this recent chart from Nomura, which examines cross-border equity flows: When people start freaking out they dump foreign equity assets. Right now, these flows are at a level that's only been surpassed twice in over 25 years: The crash of '87 and the collapse of Lehman.

Image: Nomura

Bottom line: It's possible that the crisis/panic we're seeing now could subside long before the core problems in Europe get fixed, a process that at best will take years.

US House Republicans oppose Senate payroll tax bill

18 Dec 2011 - 15:06

(Adds quotes, background on payroll tax cut)
WASHINGTON, Dec 18 (Reuters) - U.S. House Speaker John Boehner threw into doubt the fate of a popular tax break for workers on Sunday, saying he and his fellow House Republicans oppose the two-month extension backed by the Senate and want something longer passed before the holiday break.
Boehner said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program he wants a one-year extension of the reduced rate for U.S. payroll tax paid by workers to fund Social Security.
"It's pretty clear that I and our members oppose the Senate bill. It's only for two months," Boehner said, adding this was "kicking the can down the road."
The Senate passed a two-month extension on Saturday but Boehner said he wanted to work out differences with the Senate before the end of the year, when the tax cut expires.
The biggest sticking point for a year-long extension is how to cover the $120 billion in lost revenue. Republicans are demanding spending cuts to cover the cost and Democrats want to pay for it by closing some tax breaks for the wealthy.
Boehner said Congress should stay in Washington and pass the longer extension before going home for the holiday break.
Beyond a one-year extension, Boehner said House Republicans are demanding reforms to the federal unemployment insurance program to cut the number of weeks for benefits - measures largely opposed by Democrats.
The package also includes a provision to avert a pay cut for doctors treating the elderly on the Medicare healthcare program.
"How can you do tax policy for two months?" Boehner said. "We really do believe it's time for the Senate to work with the House to complete our business for the year. We've got two weeks to get this done. Let's do it the right way."
President Barack Obama, a Democrat, says the lower 4.2 percent payroll tax rate will help boost economic growth. Without congressional action, the rate on the tax workers pay into the Social Security retirement fund will snap back to 6.2 percent.
White House economic adviser Gene Sperling was more optimistic about the prospects for the Senate-passed shorter extension.
"I really think it is very unlikely that the House would disrupt this compromise ... six days before Christmas," Sperling said on CNN's "State of the Union" program on Sunday.

Forget The Shanghai Composite, The Baltic Dry Index Tells The Real Story Of China's Economy

Tom McClellan, McClellan Market Report | Dec. 17, 2011, 4:02 AM
Tom McClellan is the editor of both The McClellan Market Report and The Daily Edition.

There is a growing chorus of analyst voices calling for an economic collapse in China.  This is based in part on how poorly Chinese stocks have done this year, and it sets up all sorts of worries about what an economic slowdown in China might do to prices of commodities, and to other world financial markets.

I have a different view, and it is based on the comparison we see in this week's chart.  The Baltic Dry Index (Source: bloomberg.com BDIY:IND) is an index of dry shipping lease rates.  In other words, it reflects how much it costs to rent a freighter for hauling non-liquid stuff.  The Baltic Exchange also tracks lease rates on oil tankers, and on specialized ships like Panamax ships designed to transit the Panama Canal, and Capesize ships that are too big to fit through the Suez Canal and which thus must go around Cape Horn.  The Baltic Dry Index includes pricing for Handymax, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk containers.
Economists and analysts like to watch the Baltic Dry Index because its pricing reflects demand for shipping stuff across the ocean.  Because the supply of such ships is fairly inelastic, changes in demand will flow through very quickly into lease rate pricing.  It takes a while to build new freighters in response to high lease rates, and that is part of the explanation for why BDIY crashed in late 2008.  A lot of shipyards had ramped up production earlier that year, and then those new freighters flooded a collapsing freight market during the 2008 financial meltdown.  This is a classic case of what's know as the Avocado Effect, or the Hog Cycle.

It is not surprising to see a correlation between Chinese stock prices and some indicator of world economic activity.  China is a mercantilist country which seeks to export a large amount of what it produces.  So when there is a change in world demand for "stuff", that is going to affect the country producing the stuff.  And because stock price movements can often precede changes in GDP, the big drop in Chinese stock prices during 2011 has people understandably concerned.
But the Baltic Dry Index is not confirming that drop.  BDIY bottomed in January 2011 and has been trending higher, in direct disagreement with the Shanghai B Stock Index.  When the two disagree, I have found that it is worth listening to what BDIY is saying.
BDIY did not confirm the higher highs in the Shanghai B Index in late 2010 and early 2011.  Now, as Chinese stocks are unwinding that big top, BDIY is saying that things are actually not as bad as the stock price decline seems to imply.

Personal Market View - HSI capitulation at 2011/12/15 10.39am ?

HSI capitulation at 2011/12/15 10.39am ?
by ckchoy

HSI today morning opening gapped down with downtrend started to gain momentum and suddenly accerelated down fast and reach a bottom at 10.39am around 17886.
If the capitulation is real, expect HSI has hit immediate bottom and started to rebound from here.
The reward of catching a real capitulation is huge. Suggest to long from here but must set a stop loss if HSI breach down 17886 again.

Personal Finance Part 26 – Wealth Cannot Last More Than 3 Generations

The above title represents a very intriguing concept which has been known to the Chinese for millennium, and there is even a Chinese Idiom which states so “Fu Bu Guo San Dai”. Interestingly, while reading “Millionaire Teacher” written by Andrew Hallam (a new book written on investing and personal finance, written by middle-class millionaire teacher Andrew Hallam), I also discovered that he had written about the exact same phrase, though he did not elaborate too much about it. Basically, this teaches us that wealth earned by the first generation can seldom, if ever, last past three generations. The reason for this is so obvious in its simplicity that it is surprising that most adults fail to grasp it – money which is not “earned” tends to be squandered. How does this fit into personal finance? A lot can be learnt about how people behave under various circumstances, and I will illustrate my point using this phrase as a backup; to also show evidence of how parents should teach their own children about money. Granted, it is not easy to “break the cycle” and prove an age-old adage wrong, but there’s no harm in trying to inculcate the right values in the younger generation from an early age.

The First Generation – Wealth Building

The first generation would represent, in most cases, the generation which possessed the highest degree of entrepreneurial spirit, and who believed in hard work, sweat and effort. Most of these people came from a faraway land (e.g. China, India) and arrived in Singapore with hardly a penny to their name, and worked as coolies or labourers doing menial tasks. The hard life made many of them strive to break free of their “bondage” and many of them undertook risks to start businesses in order to achieve freedom from their manual labour. Of course, many of them failed and disappeared into oblivion, but those who survived thrived and grew their businesses and eventually became very rich as a result. However, their frugal habits which were cultivated from their days as hard labourers stayed with them, and because they understood the value of their hard work, sweat and tears, there was also an appreciation of the wealth they had painstakingly accumulated.

Another class of successful first-generation wealth-builders are those who subsisted on a fixed salary (i.e. salaried employees), but who were prudent in spending, saved and invested throughout their lives to accumulate a substantial nest egg. Although these people did not run businesses or make breakthrough products like the iPhone, they nevertheless also understood the value of a dollar earned because they put in considerable effort in their day job, and now have the financial means to enjoy their olden years without having to slog like a dog. The same theme can be picked up here as well – hard work, effort and appreciation of a dollar earned will go towards building long-lasting wealth. These are the people who worked hard to get where they are, who appreciate every last dollar they own; and will never let anything or anyone ruin their plans for a comfortable retirement.

Just for the record, these people usually consist of those who came from the 1900’s to the 1940’s, who had seen Singapore’s rise as an entrepot trade centre to an economic powerhouse, and who had grown along with the country as well. They were our forefathers (grandparents and great-grandparents) who slogged hard and lived in an environment where there was little financial security, unlike what the young are enjoying today.

The Second Generation – Wealth Maintenance

Along came the second generation, which consists mainly of people born in the 50’s and 60’s (the baby boomers). These were the direct descendants of the entrepreneurs and businessmen, and grew up during the years after the World Wars, and who also experienced Singapore’s transformation into an economic miracle. These are the folk who grew up witnessing how their parents slogged to become who are they are now (successful people), and they may also have chipped into help their parents out in the business. However, not being the founders themselves, they would not have the same kind of emotional attachment to grow the business as their parents did. This is not to say that they do not have the competence to manage and grow the business, but they may never attain the same level of passion for the business as their parents did. In fact, there have also been known cases of children who refused to carry on their parents’ trade, and who chose a different career path; thus the business empire had to be taken on by “outsiders”, who would not have the same kind of loyalty to the business as blood kin. Other more stark examples may include a skilled Char Kway Teow hawker whose son is much more educated and does not wish to carry on this “menial” job, but instead prefers to pick up a pen to do accounting or law (I have heard of such cases by speaking personally to older hawkers in Singapore – this is why there is less and less great Hawker Food!).

So assuming in cases where the parents had built up a huge business empire and created massive amounts of wealth, the baby boomers simply had to maintain it and ensure it did not flow down the toilet bowl. This was somewhat easy as they had a direct hand in managing the business (in some cases), while in other cases where they did not, they had witnessed first-hand what their fathers and mothers had been through, and thus understood the importance of ensuring the wealth was retained, and not squandered. This is the so-called second generation effect – they help to maintain the wealth which was built up by the first generation. So far so good. Now let’s come to the third generation – Generation X and Y.

The Third Generation – Wealth Depletion

The third generation, affectionately known as Generation X and Y (born in 1970s to 1980s; and 1990’s to 2000’s) are the most blessed generation. They were born when Singapore was stable (after having broken away from Malaysia) and was on solid economic footing, with a strong Government (PAP) and sturdy policies. There was political stability, economic security and financial stability as well. Most of us (yes, myself included) grew up in an environment where we did not have to struggle and go hungry, where education was widely available, and where material pleasures were readily available (with a new invention called the Credit Card, no doubt). Therefore, this generation has also been given the label “Strawberry Generation” – looks good on the outside, but cannot last when encountering adversity. Because of the inherent stability in our lives and the lack of a push factor to strive hard and achieve, the spirit of entrepreneurship has all but died out and many of us are relegated to salaried jobs earning a fixed income which keeps us happy and contented.

It is this generation which is responsible for poor financial habits and for squandering away the wealth built up and maintained by the preceding two generations. Most of Generation X and Y were relatively insulated from the day to day operations of the business, and add to that the fact that parents (the baby boomers) were also over-indulgent in wanting to ensure their children lived a comfortable life; so much so that they provided too much of a comfortable life for this generation. Without the need to strive hard, this generation thus lacked the necessary appreciation of money and how hard it is to earn it, and proceeded to spend lavishly and wantonly. An easy supply of money coming from two previous generations also fuels this habit and exacerbates the careless (and callous) attitude in which this generation frivolously fritters away the wealth built up over 50-60 years.

While it might be a bit of an exaggeration in terms of my description of how the current generation behaves (for of course, there are also shining examples of youths who grasped the concept of delayed gratification and appreciate the value of hard-earned dollars), there have been ample examples in the newspapers over the years (yes, I can find examples stretching from 2003 till now) which serve to demonstrate, anecdotally, how the current generation has a higher tendency than the previous two to spend excessively and without due consideration.

I have read reports of fathers who spend lavishly on their children, buying them anything from branded goods to cars to the latest gadgets. With such constant pampering, it is no fault of the child that they grow up to be completely spoilt adults who are used to getting their own way, whether or not they have the financial means for it. A life hooked on materialism and on borrowed money (credit cards and loans), while living paycheck to paycheck, seems to be what errant parents have set up for their kids.

Lessons Learnt

I guess one can already tell what the moral of this post is – how to inculcate the proper financial habits and value system within a generation who is unused to struggle and hard work. For all of us aspiring parents or those who are already parents of young toddlers, make sure they understand the value of money. There are actually many websites which give advice on how to educate children about money, and to ensure they treasure it and appreciate it from a young age. Now that we are already moving into the fourth generation (Generation Z they are called), it is extremely important to educate them well financially so that the wealth depletion and drainage stops before it gets worse.

Of course, those parents who are already financial wrecks themselves are hardly in a good position to impart prudent values to their children, but perhaps this post also serves as a wake-up call for those who may be exhibiting poor financial discipline. If your lifestyle is ostentatious and you have poor money habits, it is perhaps a good time to sit down and review your finances and to ask yourself if you need some proper financial education. Call it self-discovery and soul-searching, if you will.

For parents who may have teenage children, do yourself a favour and stop the pampering. The key is to be like Warren Buffett – he believes in giving his children just enough so that they can do anything they want, yet not an excessive amount such that they do not need to do anything at all (i.e. sit on your butt all day, watch television and spend money). And we are talking about one of the richest men on the planet! If parents consistently help their kids to pay off their student loans, purchase cars for them, buy branded items and gadgets for them whenever they request, then there is simply no incentive for the young adult to work hard for these items and to manage their financial life. So the only way to “teach” is to let them pay for everything on their own – this not only builds discipline and perseverance, but also teaches the value of delayed gratification, striving hard and saving for what you desire and plays down the materialistic instinct residing in us. Over the long-term, this will definitely do more good than harm.

Go for win

Why Do Traders Lose? by Jeff Coglianese

by Jeff Coglianese, Senior Broker & CTA
November 14, 2005
Why Do Traders Lose?

Much time and attention in these articles is dedicated to winning trades in the futures markets. Today will we will identify some of the reasons why traders lose and hopefully learn how to avoid a few of these common pitfalls. Losing is a major part of commodity trading. How you handle losses can be the difference between being a successful trader and becoming a former trader.

I have personally, at one time or another, made most of these mistakes in my own trading. Identifying common mistakes is the easy part. Overcoming human nature is a career long struggle in trading. No trader is perfect. Traders who can best avoid the pitfalls have the best chance of being successful over time.
The futures industry is full of trading adages that for the most part are sage advice. The following are some of the most common adages in the business:
"Let your profits run and cut your losses short"
"The first loss is always the smallest"
"Plan your trade and trade your plan"
"Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered"
"The trend is your friend"

The above adages have been around as long the markets have been in existence. Their wisdom and validity has stood the test of time. We will discuss three of my own trading dictums that are listed as follows:
"Do you want to be right, or do you want to make money?"
"The hardest part of trading is between your ears"
"Would'a, should'a and could'a are the three best traders I know."

We will draw some parallels between trading and baseball. In the 2005 baseball season, Derrick Lee led all of major league baseball in batting average at .335. That equates to failing to get a hit 2 out of 3 times he steps up to the plate. Most players in the major leagues would be thrilled to bat .300. That would mean that 7 out of 10 times the batted, they failed to get a hit.

You may be starting to wonder what baseball has to do with trading futures. A baseball player knows that he will not get a hit every at bat. He also knows that if he goes 0-4 in a game, that he should not completely change his swing. The adage, plan your trade and trade your plan, draws a nice parallel to our baseball analogy. One of the most difficult parts of trading for most new traders is dealing with the losing. A few losing trades in a row and a trader is ready to try a different strategy.

The markets vary in their type frequently. Some of the time, markets trade in fairly well-defined ranges. At other times, markets experience well-defined trends. A person trading a trend following system will likely lose money when the market is choppy and directionless. On the other hand, a counter trend trader who sells resistance and buys support would tend to thrive in a choppy market. Neither of these strategies can be said to be better than the other, they just work better in different types of market conditions. It is difficult to see the big picture while you are in a trade, especially if you have had a string of losers. Many times, traders will switch strategies just as market conditions are about to change. These traders end up trading the wrong strategy in the wrong market and then switch strategies and do the same thing again only to find they are once again trading the wrong strategy in the wrong market.

Many times in trading, the best course of action is stick with your trading method. Going back to baseball, if Alex Rodriguez goes into a slump, he does not try a new swing or stance. What he will do is watch video of himself hitting at a time before the slump. He will find out what he is doing now that is different from what he did when he was successful. This will help him to return to his original method of success.

Human nature is a big part of the reason many traders lose. We are taught from the time we start grade school that we should be correct all the time. The way to get "A's" in school is to get 90% correct on your exams. It is hard to get away from wanting to be correct or right and that can be costly in trading. Successful traders learn that they want to make money over time, not be right all the time.

Many trend following traders lose on upwards of 70% of their trades. They believe that the 30% winning trades will make enough for their trading activities to be profitable. The average new trader would never stand for a system that lost 7 out of 10 trades. They want to be right 90% of the time and get an "A". Many new traders are attracted to programs and systems that advertise high winning percentages. Which is better, a system or method that wins 90% of time with $100 average winners and $1,000 average losers, or a system that wins 20% of the time with $1,000 winners and $100 losers. In this example, the 20% winning system is the better method.

The problem with low percentage winning systems is that after three or four losing trades in a row, the trader starts to doubt the validity of the system. Maybe the market has changed? Maybe the system is no longer valid? These are just a few of the thoughts that go through the mind of a trader who has had a several losers in a row. If an uninterested party were to view the big picture up to the most recent losing streak, they would easily identify that the method worked over time and not think about changing course. Successful traders learn to ignore these thoughts and focus on the fact that losing trades are part of their overall system.

Many novice and unsuccessful traders play the Would'a, Should'a, Could'a game. A trader sees a trade set up and does not act. He tells himself that he would have made money if he acted on the signal. The same trader is in a position that is making money and takes profit. The market continues in the same direction and our trader tells himself that he should have stayed with the position and made more money. A trader looks at the markets after the close of trading and tells himself that had he looked earlier he could have made had a winning trade. The words would, should and could are all past tense verbs. Trading the past is very easy because we know the outcome.

Trading is about making money, not being correct in market analysis or being a great prognosticator. Traders must be consistent in their approach and strive to completely remove emotion from trading decisions. This is often best achieved by having and sticking to a plan for every trade. We trade in the future markets, not in the past markets. We will never trade as well in real-time as we could by looking back. Trading in the past is an exercise in futility that will only harm your psyche going forward. You should view every trade you make as the best trade you could make at the time with the information available.

Why Do More Than 90% of Traders Lose? by Jaaks

by Jaaks

Traders lose primarily because the primitive part of the brain is wired to avoid loss and the primitive brain makes all the decisions. Once we incur a loss trading, we try to recoup the loss. This usually means riding the loss down to greater losses until the pain gets too great. Then we bail at a huge loss, with a lot of emotional pain. This loss is burned in our memory and subconsciously when we start trying to get the money we lost back. Let's be clear. This is occurring subconsciously. You are not aware it is happening. That is why you repeat the same behaviors, and lose over and over again even though your higher brain know it is wrong. By the way, the higher brain will think all sort of excuses to justify the primitive brains actions. None of which are true.

How do you counter this strong, unconscious force? First you need a plan. The first part of the the plan is cash management. You need goals based on the type of trading you are doing. You need strict loss stops above all, how much money you are willing to lose for the type of trading your are doing and if you hit it, you are DONE! The same go for profits. Once you reach you profit goal, never, never lose it. You can keep riding the the profit train in the market let you but if it reverses and returns to your min profit level, you are OUT! Once you have experience in the market, you can alter the latter part by taking partial profits and increasing your position size for really obscene profits but never, never violate your daily loss rule. Never. Keep a log and study it. You will find the best ratio of win to lost based on your trading style.

Why is the stop amount so important other than the obvious? Because starting out, you are likely going have more losing trades than winners. But you can still make money: Say you set a stop at $100 and it cost $2.00per buy and sell and the slippage is $.01/share and you profit goal is 4 times your loss amt. This means you could lose 3 times for every win. A 75% loss rate in trades. After 3 losses, you will have lost $312 + the slippage. That amount is based on the number of shares. Let's say it is 300 shares. so the slippage is $3. So your total loss is $315. The next trade in profitable, so you gain $396. You have profit of $81. If you do this every day, your profit is $405/wk. Couldn't live on this amount in America, but by increasing the amount, you can get to the point you could. But the best way is getting a win / loss ratio greater than one. Then you really make money. The only way to do this is accumulating trading time. If you could get to 3 wins for every loss, then your gain per day is 873 or $4365/wk. You could live on that! Note: this would be a very good winning ratio and depends on the stocks you trade and the type of trader you are.

The fist part of your plan is cash management. The next is a plan of when to buy, when to sell, when to take profit, when to increase your position size. Is there one better than another? Yes, depending on the type of trader you are and the market. Also different plans are needed in different market phases. But every plan fails if you don't relentlessly stick to it. Never vary, never vary, never vary. You can alter your plan when you are not trading, but while you are trading, sick to it. Is there a fool proof trading method? No. If there was, that method would soon get all the profit in the market and everyone would use it, resulting in it's failure as the rules would now have changed. Anyway, if you had a system, would you let anyone know about it? Not likely! At best, you could come up with something that work for the market conditions at that moment but would fail when the conditions change. "The market is always the same, the market is always changing." There are plenty of adaptive black box systems that supposedly are using fuzzy logic and neural programming. From what I know, their ratio is 35% winners, 65% losers. And they make money hand over fist because they have strict rules and they never vary from them.

The Real Reason Why 90% of Traders Lose, Nadeem Walayat's Trading Lesson's

The Real Reason Why 90% of Traders Lose, Nadeem Walayat's Trading Lesson's

Why It's So Easy to Lose Money in the Markets

Well, let's look at a few reasons:
1) The stocks and indices most familiar to traders have provided the worst returns.
2) The time frame most comfortable for short-term traders (daytrading) has provided the worst returns.
3) The growth of stock index and ETFs has created automated arbitrage strategies that have greatly diminished market trending.
4) Markets tend to confound human nature by refusing to do in the next time period what they have done in the previous one.
5) Because of the above, following normal human sentiment makes people lose money in the markets, almost as if the game is rigged.
6) Because markets change their trending and volatility over time, we'll always tend to be most confident just as things are turning--and overconfidence is deadly.
7) There's no minor league for trading: once you place your order, you're up against the pros, who have a lot of tools at their disposal.
I've learned many things from traders, but this perhaps is most important: The most successful traders and trading organizations I've had the pleasure of getting to know are constantly adapting to changing market conditions. They don't rely on a single trading model; they are always modeling. They do not scalp the midday hours the same as they approach the early morning. They know the difference between a market with active institutional participation and one dominated by locals--and trade accordingly.
People are comfortable with the known, and that keeps them static. It is so easy to lose money in the markets, because markets are dynamic.

2012全球房地產投資下降

Created 11/14/2011 - 14:15

《The Great Wall of Money》報告指出，2012年投向環球房地產市場的投資金額預期為3160億美元，較2010年底估算的投資金額下跌4%。這是自2009年年底以來，環球房地產市場的投資金額首次沒有出現預期的增長。原因是基金較難籌集新資金，轉而調動現有資金以作投資用途。

歐洲沒機會
美洲小漲

《The Great Wall of Money》報告追蹤環球新資金直接購買房地產的情況，並介紹目前市場的新機遇。各地區中，新籌集資金上升的只有美洲，較上一次統計時增加3%至1140億美元；反觀亞太區的新籌得資金則較上次統計時跌12%至910億美元，歐洲亦跌3%至1110億美元。

撰寫報告的Nigel Almond說，由於環球經濟前景再添陰霾，更多基金利用現有資金作投資，各地市場新籌集的資金也減少。亞太區物業價格較理想，吸引更多基金，令區內在2010年至2011年上半年間的物業交易量大增。

歐洲、中東及非洲地區方面，過去兩年間新籌集的資金量大致穩定，但物業成交數字不多，反映專注投資於歐洲的基金較難在區內找到合適的投資機會。

美洲的新籌集資金量繼續上升，但物業交易只有輕微增長。

商舖投資是全球風

大部份投資者均選擇多於一個類型的物業為投資目標，這類投資佔整體房地產投資金額達到80%；專注單一物業類型的基金最青睞的物業類型是商舖，投資於商舖的基金佔總數35%，其次是工業類物業。

報告發現，投資於單一國家的基金首次占各類基金的大多數為52%，而2009年這類基金佔整體的比率只是30%。這項轉變反映了在環球經濟風險增加時，投資者傾向投資於他們熟悉的場，投資於單一國家的基金中，最多基金選擇美國為投資地區，佔總數的51%，其次是英國，佔10%。

新基金將會減少

報告分析顯示，未來亞太、歐洲及美洲三大地區房地產投資金額中，非本土資金的比重都會增加，表示明年有機會出現更多跨地區的物業投資買賣。

亞太區的非本土資金在上述的18個月內佔比為11%，但明年預期佔比將增至66%，約佔整體房地產投資金額的三分之二。然而在近期環球波動的市況下，明年亞太資金跨地區投資活動不會太活躍。

DTZ戴德梁行全球研究部主管Hans Vrensen表示，雖然房地產比其它資產有更高的投資價值，但環球市場的不明朗，將在未來一段日子影響新資金的籌集。

如果環球經濟持續沒有起色，戴德梁行預期隨著企業推遲上市計劃，第三方基金亦較難吸引新的投資時，投向全球房地產市場的資金就會減少。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:14/11/11

HSI: the upside prevails

Straits Times Index: bullish bias above 2740

Smart money nibbles at Asian equities

Emerging market funds prove attractive as share prices plummet

By Goh Eng Yeow
14 November 2011

It would take an investor with a strong stomach to put up with the roller-coaster which hit global stock markets last week.

But while worries about Greece and Italy were occupying the newspaper headlines, the smart money was quietly nibbling at Asian equities as their share prices plummeted along with those in the rest of the world.

Data from Citi Investment Research shows that funds investing in emerging markets equities attracted about US$2.1billion (S$2.7 billion) in fresh money last week.

Although this was lower than the US$3.5 billion received in the previous week, the inflow suggested that investors were picking up stocks again, as they overcame the jitters that had kept them sidelined since early August.

The Citi data also showed that, within Asia, funds investing in Hong Kong and China equities stayed as the key winners for a second week, receiving the bulk of the new money, followed by Taiwan.

This is not surprising, considering that China was one of the few bright spots for investors, with a drop in inflation suggesting that the world’s No. 2 economy might have successfully engineered a soft landing.

For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.41 per cent, propelled by a strong showing on Friday.

Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index, however, fell 2.03 per cent, as investors dumped blue-chips such as Noble Group, Wilmar International and Genting Singapore, following their third-quarter results.

Still, the steady trickle of investors back into the market has revived hopes that the much-awaited traditional Santa rally is around the corner.

But in order to get the bulls galloping again, conditions in Europe will have to stabilise.

Last week, global stock markets suffered a seizure as Italian borrowing costs headed past 7 per cent into bailout territory, before enjoying a spectacular rebound on Friday, as yields fell back to 6.5 per cent.

To some investors, the rout suffered by Italian bonds resembled an old-fashioned bank run where panicky depositors rush to take out their money for fear that the bank will fail.

But in this case, the run was on something far bigger - the world’s seventh largest economy to be precise, and that could well have horrendous consequences beyond jittery depositors.

True, Italy may be one of the world’s most heavily indebted countries, owing about €2 trillion (S$3.5 trillion). But that does not mean it is in imminent danger of going bankrupt.

In fact, much of its debt is owned by its citizens, who have an estimated total wealth of €10 trillion and are unlikely to want their country to go into default.

For a bank run to subside, the besieged lender turns to a lender of last resort - usually the country’s central bank - to supply ample cash to meet depositors’ demands and restore faith that their money is in safe hands.

For Italy, the lender of last resort is the European Central Bank and it was the massive purchase of Italian bonds by the ECB that helped to push Italian bond yields down and stabilise the market.

But there is one problem. Market strategists noted that the ECB’s current ad hoc approach makes any relief temporary.

‘The ECB should be committing to unlimited purchases of Italian bonds in order to ward off speculators. Unfortunately, it remains reluctant to do this,’ said Mr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital Investors’ head of investment strategy.

This reluctance may be what is holding back the bulls from breaking into a trot to get the Santa rally going.     

四十年不敗「平民股神」股災教戰

繼八月份三天大跌九百點的股災後，九月二十二日、二十三日兩天，台股又跌四百九十點，今年詭譎的股市中，投資人如何明哲保身，甚至反敗為勝？

▲蘇松泙逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資 術」，積小勝為大勝（攝影者．許世穎）
「買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了！」四十年來沒有一年賠過錢、有「平民股神」之稱的蘇松泙，接受本刊專訪時特別強調。用這個標準來看，該不該停損？要不要攤平？風險要如何規避？他提供了他多年操作股票的心法，你可以檢視一下，你跟股神的心法有什麼不一樣。

「要不要賣？」「還會不會再跌？」「要不要攤平？」「快要被斷頭了？」一連串的疑問，充斥在市場中。九月二十二日及二十三日，短短兩天，加權股價指數大跌四百九十點，跌幅六．五％，台股市值一週就蒸發掉一兆四千億元，以全台八百八十萬開戶數估算，等於每戶都損失了十六萬元。

九月二十六日，週一，國安基金護盤，只演了半場好戲，尾盤再度急殺，大跌一百六十九．一點。投資人心冷了、心碎了，該怎麼辦？有什麼方法可以從這次股災中減少損失？又要如何逆境求生？

持股水位該設多少？
股神心法1：在空頭市場，持股別超過三成
我在任何時候，持股至少都三百萬，從兩千點漲到一萬點，一萬點再跌下來，一定會有三百萬。因為我是職業投資人，一定天天都有股票，就像一個種稻子的農夫一樣，不管大雨、颱風，我都要去看看我稻田裡的秧苗。

（今年是）四十年來，最差的一年。譬如我追強勢股，不管怎麼追，都沒辦法獲到大利。而且，漲都很慢漲，一跌很快就跌下來了。第二，除權除息股幾乎每一檔都跌價。這以我的觀念，就是在這地方賺不到錢了。所以我就把股票減碼，我在九千點的時候，股票大概剩下三百萬。這是我的基本持股，在我來講，也等於是零持股（蘇松泙個人資產上億元，持股水位約三％）。

三百萬也是天天去證券（行），換股換來換去，用那三百萬去換，換到股票不會跌了，我就慢慢加碼，加兩百加三百，一直加。一般加最多，也不容易加到三千萬以上。

以我認為，如果你有一百萬，（在空頭市場）就不要（投入）超過三十萬。

可以逢低攤平了嗎？
股神心法2：可減量換股，但絕對不能攤平
我最不建議任何人做攤平的動作。你可以換股操作，但一定不要攤平。你銀行股一千元跌到十二元你怎麼攤（一九九○年三商銀、國壽從高點崩盤）？禾伸堂從九百九十九元跌到幾元也不知道，你怎麼攤？

你可以減量。譬如你有四張股票，如果你想攤平兩張，我建議你把它賣兩張掉就好。就是你有想攤平的心理出來時，就把它變成賣出動作。
那如果你不想攤平，那就代表你想長期投資，你就長期投資。反正它不會讓你跌了晚上睡不著覺，漲了睡不著覺。這種就等看看就好。

套牢一堆如何操作？
股神心法3：不要不甘心，用分批出場停損
一般投資人是這樣，你叫他殺股票，好像叫他從一○一（大樓）跳下來一樣，有時我自己也會這樣，「唉呀，為什麼把這個股票賣了？」不管是漲還是跌，（投資人）要學習用平常心去看待買賣股票這個動作。

假設我現在有十張股票，現在一百元，假設當初一百二十五元買的。它跌到九十八元，我就先砍兩張，萬一它漲回來一百零二元，我一樣可以砍兩張，它又跌到九十六，你也可以再砍兩張。它又跌到九十，我只剩下四張，就不一定要砍啊，然後它再跌到八十，算了，我就都砍了，反正回去很難了。這樣就可慢慢把股票砍掉，離開它（原先）的高價區。

假設我現在五張股票，每一張都賠錢，最簡單，看到跌停鎖死的，不管，就把它全部砍掉。假設我有四張跌的，一張漲的，我就把一張跌的賣掉，同時把漲的也賣掉。我把小賠的股票賣掉，同時把小賺的股票也賣掉，這樣我獲利和虧損歸零（即賺賠都沖銷掉了）。

部位高較能賺錢嗎？
股神心法4：金額投越少，獲利反而能更大
我大概二十年前，那時幾乎隨時股票最低持股都是一千萬，但發現，做大，獲利不一定那麼大耶。後來把持股改下來，改到三百萬。發現，擺越少，獲利越大。

我們不用把錢都丟進去，但是可以有更靈活的操作。因為，現在假設我有五百萬，五百萬都買一張股票，任何人跟你說你要停損，我請教你，現在跌一○％時，你就考慮要不要停損嗎？那第二天一跌又跌到一三％，糟了，你就（會）想說等到股票回來，（反彈）到跌一○％（的價位），我就停損；當然沒有（出現），它就一路掉啦！那你怎麼捨得把它全部賣掉？你就會在那邊遲疑。一遲疑，後來忍不住（還是）把它賣了，賠了二○％，這樣永遠都是輸家。

大盤指數該怎麼看？
股神心法5：不必看指數，只要看選股方向
我會看國外美股、日股指數，但台股指數我從來不看。因為台股漲一百點、跌一百點也好，對我來講，都不影響什麼，我只有嚴格控制我的持股。我可以賺錢，就放大我股票的部位；我不能賺錢，我就縮小。

譬如股票現在九千點，人家都賺錢，我就賠錢啊，那九千點跟我沒有關係，我就把股票縮小。譬如現在跌到七千點，大家賠錢，我發現我不會賠錢，那就可以把股票（部位）放大。這也是我跟一般人不一樣的地方。我用我至少能夠獲利，來決定這個大盤指數對我來講是多頭還是空頭。

如何做股票沒壓力？
股神心法6：有賺才加碼，務必留下保命錢
做股票，先拿十萬元出來試試功力，有賺到一萬四，還可以再拿十萬元，等於二十萬（即使隔天跌停，損失一萬四千元，還是沒有賠到錢）。

一定是從小錢去賺，賺到再加碼。股票最好是用你自有的資金去賺錢，賺不到就算賠光光，也不會影響你的生活費。你如果壓力大，一定是賠錢的機會大於賺錢的機會。這跟房地產不一樣，你買下去，跌掉反正自己住的，住過十年、二十年，你就不會賠錢啦。

也不要用全部的錢去操作，留十分之二也好。跌到八千點、五千點，你還有錢，可以慢慢在那邊買進賣出。

不融資買股很難賺？
股神心法7：融資賠更慘，進場前先想風險
像我這樣，我從來也沒有覺得股票很好操作。有人說，「蘇先生，你怎麼買這麼少？我看你股票做很好，怎麼買這麼少？」，我說，「天下有這麼笨的人嗎？我如果知道明天這張股票會漲停板，我就都壓下去嘛！」對不對？但是我可以知道一次，我不可能知道十次啊，我壓對一次，壓錯九次怎麼辦？

如果你不用融資都賺不到錢，用融資更容易賠錢。就像你買一張股票都不賺錢，買一百張，一千張，更易賠錢。所以我做四十年股票，只有融資一次。融資會讓你獲得大利，也會讓你失敗。把風險放在前面，這樣就立於不敗之地了。你不敗，就可以利用時間，利用空間。

賠到睡不著怎麼辦？
股神心法8：晚上睡不好，代表你已透支了
（現在）就是跌到三千點，我還可以睡得著呢。不管你買多少股票，你晚上要睡得著。假設明天崩盤呢？我每一次出手，都當作明天股票會崩盤，明天崩盤你睡得著嗎？

買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了，你那時候買的股票已經太多了。

人人都會有想多買一點、或受到周遭氣氛鼓動貪心與衝動的人性弱點，為了嚴守投資紀律，蘇松泙會想出一些小方法來協助自己嚴格執行。

譬如在市場熱絡時，他會跟營業員說，假設他下了兩張以上的買單，那營業員必須在下單前，再跟蘇松泙確認一次，是否真的要買兩張。經過這樣的來回詢問，時間一延長，就有助降低買股票的衝動。

賠錢是散戶永遠不變的宿命嗎？蘇松泙就是不相信，而有了不蝕本投資術的操盤心法，今年的行情，他的觀察，過去，股價指數在九千點左右，成交量常常都在兩千億以上，今年，有時候一千億都不到，顯示沒有多少人賺到錢，一定要保守。

【延伸閱讀】6招不蝕本投資術
•嚴控持股水位。只用一部分資金進場操作，最多不超過3成
•股票漲時先賣7％。讓獲利先入袋，因為不知道股票會漲到哪一天
•不要只壓一檔。否則會患得患失，不甘認賠、不捨停利
•絕不使用融資。若買1張股票會賠，買10張更容易賠
•絕不攤平。只要被套牢，絕不加碼買進，只分批賣出
•順勢操作。但順的是自己手上股票的勢，而不是受氣氛鼓動，去順大盤人氣的勢

資料來源：《平民股神教你不蝕本投資術》

小檔案＿蘇松泙
出生：1951年
投資經歷：逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資術」，積小勝為大勝
成績單：
1.以3萬元本金投入股市，從負債200萬到目前身家上億元
2.以年結算，40年來從未虧損，金融海嘯當年仍獲利2百萬元

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 商業周刊 第1245期
Publish date: 03/10/11

Cycle of emotions

Cut loss is hard work, really!

by Posteado por passiontrader

Anybody who trades understand the concept of cutting loss, but not everyone can do it. Why is it so difficult to cut loss? It took me almost 3 years to made myself put that into action. It’s real hard work to fight against my own emotions. Being a stock broker for the last 3 years, I came to realized that if you can’t bring yourself to cut loss, you will not be in this game for long. So what are some of the reasons (or excuses) that traders give themselves for not cutting loss?
1. I can’t reconciled myself to do it
Imagine that you have monitor this stock for the past few days, and after you finally decide to buy, the stock price suddenly fall to your cut loss within 5 minutes after buying. How would you feel? Think most people will start screaming at themselves, “How can this happen to me?”, “Why me?” You will start to hate the market for doing this to you. You just can’t bring yourself to cut loss at this instant. Just 5 minutes into the game and I lose money!! How to accept this? Arrgh…. Well, you better be. There’s a well known saying among traders, “Your first loss is your best loss”. If you don’t cut now, you will probably end up incurring more losses.
2. The stock price will rise once I cut loss
Funny right? It seems that the market knows what you are buying and wants to make a fool of you. You don’t sell, it keeps on falling. Once you sell, the price starts to rise almost immediately. How you hate the market at that moment! It’s just like when you are driving and the lane you are in seems to be moving very slowly. You then decide to switch lane, but only to see the car behind you on the previous lane zoom pass and way ahead of you. You start scolding yourself why you ever switch lane in the first place! It happens, and I’ll guaranteed that it will happen again and again, as long as you are in the market (or as long as you are driving!). I don’t have any strategy that can avoid this, but what I can say is that if you do not cut loss because of this reason, you are going to lose more money than you make in the long run. This I can bet my entire fortune on it.
3. The price will rise in the future. I just need to hold it until then
Sure, it probably will, and I’m not going to argue with you about this. The next question I’m going to ask is, “For how long?” 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you leave your money inside the market for that long period, then you are not a trader. If you are not a trader, you shouldn’t be having this problem in the first place! One of the most important thing to have for a trader is cash, and cash flow is the essence of survival. If all your money is “stuck” in the market, then where are you going to find money to trade? You will miss all the profitable trades and that’s what we call opportunity costs.
4. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose money
Then I don’t see why you are worrying about falling stock prices. It shouldn’t affect you. Who cares if the share price continue to fall. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose. Let us be honest with ourselves here. Can you really not care about falling prices? You know in your heart that you lose money if the price continue to fall. it’s just that you do not want to face the problem, and the fact that problems don’t go away if you do not do anything about it. Yes, there maybe times when the price rises again and you make a profit, but do you really make money this way? I don’t think so.
Cutting losses is part and parcel of being a trader. It’s also the most difficult part of being a trader. If any of the above are your excuses for not cutting loss, then please stop them and really do it. If you still can’t bring yourself to cut loss, then don’t be a trader. Find some good companies and invest in them. Like what I said, cutting loss is really hard work. Not many people can do it, but you can if you really work on it.

The Real Reason The Stock Market Has Had Such A Huge Rally

The Real Reason The Stock Market Has Had Such A Huge Rally

投資致勝首要條件 Stay in the game

蘋果教主喬布斯，離職養病，惜終不敵病魔，終年五十有六。七十年代起家，先創辦蘋果電腦（AAPL），中途被逐蒙難，轉搞彼思動畫（PIXAR），一樣有聲有色。喜獲迪士尼（DIS）收購，續變身迪士尼大股東。另一檔生意NeXT，又被蘋果收購，最終回巢效力。重掌帥印後，將公司起死回生，比之前更加成功。蘋果最強的i字頭系列，都在這「中興」年代推出，產品廣受歡迎。據估計，喬布斯起碼顛覆了全球六大產業：個人電腦、手機、音樂、動畫、電子書、平板電腦。奮鬥三十餘年，已有力翻天覆地，如若再幹十年，會是何等景象？可惜，歷史沒有如果，傳奇不幸作結。

壽命限制事業成就
人的壽命，往往限制事業上的成就。當然，能投入工作的年份，才有意義。所以具有健康的身心，更形重要。對投資者而言，只要一息尚存，仍有建功立業機會，故此要有所成，首要身壯力健，二要保存財政實力，將留在市場的時間，延至最長。股神巴菲特，之所以能夠封神，一項重要因素，就是夠長壽。其首次登上世界首富寶座，是二○○八年，當時已屆七十八歲高齡。如股神像喬氏一般，不敵天數大限，只活到五十餘歲，即八十年代中，則其時連名震天下的傑作：可口可樂（KO），都尚未買入，總結成績，自然大打折扣。炒神索羅斯，更要到四十歲，才與羅傑斯開檔，首次管理基金。到擊潰英鎊一役，行年六十有二，就嚟有生果金攞。

留於市場時間，愈長愈着數，有幾個原因：首先是複利的威力。愛因斯坦謂：「複利乃宇宙間最強力量，是世界第八大奇迹。」年賺一成半，五年翻一番，純粹中學數，完全沒難度。又，股神曰：「時間為好公司之友，壞公司之敵。」當持有的股份，長年累月賺取利潤、派發股息，多年後回望，會在不覺間漸有所成。

投資技巧經驗累積
其次是知識、經驗，會隨時間累積。投資就如學英文，一開始從頭學起，字母、詞匯、句式、文法，最後才是作文。最初字母都未背完，出去同人鬥寫，自然瓜多過菜。多數人沒度過最初階段，但存活夠久，經歷漸長，開始識寫一段仔，雖然高手仍然眾多，但由於開始拋離入門新手，死亡率會逐漸下降，技巧亦漸進。在投資上，到了某一階段，譬如經過前兩年的海嘯，又或是近一年的波動，仍能力保不失，或許證明已找到生存之道。

而投資要有大成，也講點際遇，像股神亦要碰上八七股災，可口可樂回落，才有機會買入。下一次機會，何時降臨，無人能知，唯一可以肯定，待在市場愈久，碰上的機會愈多。同時，因為遇到機會的時間未明，時常保留一定的購買力，也相當重要。

金錢遊戲，人之所需，難以告終。喬布斯嘗勉勵後進謂：Stay hungry. Stay foolish.誠哉斯言。投資投機，欲更進一步，則宜加上：Stay in the game.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 / 輯錄自 424期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】
Publish date:11/10/11

市场意识 14/10/2011

市场大力反弹，指数回升10-20%之间。HSI恒指今天回退似有惊弓之鸟的感觉。STI海指照起，意大利指数重夺16000，德国 Dax 正在追赶回6000 关口。前途一片光明，就算有人不看好，会再探底，资金会在等候买入。底部已成过去。是是非非，机会有多少人能把握。

Value Scouting To Financial Freedom

07 October 2011
Value Scouting To Financial Freedom
By Shares Investment

Volatility characterises the global financial markets these days. Erratic swings are becoming norms and appalling for most. Risks abound, so are opportunities. In our newly introduced “Coffee Break Q&A”, we are pleased to have Cayden Chang Kheng Mong, the Director and Founder of Mind Kinesis Management International LLP (MK), sharing his perspective on current market situation and giving a glimpse into the copyrighted Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) that has accompanied his walk to financial freedom. Below is the extract of our Q&A with Cayden who also co-authored “Do You Have What It Takes To Be BOSS?”.

SI: What is your view on the current market and what should investors do? How do you view the market going forward?
MK: I am predominantly negative about the current market but it is a great opportunity for value investors who want to buy good companies at discounted price provided they know what to buy and when to buy. Share price fluctuates like the weather, but the short-term fluctuation has nothing to do with the performance of the company, so why should we be predicting where’s the market going? Stay away from prediction, focus on fundamentals.

SI: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is one of the programmes offered by Mind Kinesis. What exactly is it all about? Who is it for? How does it work?
MK: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is a training programme that guides anyone, with absolutely no prior investing experience needed, to invest in undervalued companies with good underlying fundamentals.

Our Value Investing Programme is the first in Singapore to be recommended by Mary Buffett, the internationally acclaimed speaker and best-selling author of “Buffettology” (USA Today, Business Week and New York Times), “The Tao of Warren Buffett” (Business Week and The Wall Street Journal), “Warren Buffett’s Management Secrets” and “Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements”.

In a nutshell, V.I.P. provides a set of proven methodologies that are modeled after those used by the world’s richest stock investor, Warren Buffett, to help investors to know where to find good businesses; when to buy the good businesses by identifying the company’s intrinsic value or target price; and when to sell the good businesses. Ultimately, it is to help in the generation of passive income namely capital appreciation and dividends.

Our approach to value investing has an additional icing on the cake. We leverage on the power of Options which we believe enhances the return-on-investment (ROI).

The traditional buying and selling of options to gain returns are pure speculative. Under the V.I.P., we only sell Options with no intention of buying back. Such selling greatly reduces risks as we are not holding on to any options. The selling of these Options, meanwhile, generates a regular and passive income. Specifically, this comes under our Value Investing Options Strategy™ (VIOs™) which only requires an average of 15 minutes a month, and it does not require monitoring of charts nor using any software. To reinforce learning experience, we hold free monthly gatherings for our graduates where we generate cash “Live” during the US market trading hours. To know more, you could visit www.investment-in-stocks.com and www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy for regular Free Investment Workshops.

SI: What is the historical track record and key performance indicators (KPIs) used in assessing the effectiveness of V.I.P.?
MK: For value investing, we have a good track record of about ten years with a team of very qualified Master Trainers. Our team now consists of three investors, including myself, who became financially free via value investing. They are Sean Seah (Creator & Master Trainer of Value Investing Options Strategy) and Liu Feng (Master Trainer of Value Investing). Both have a track record of making an average annualised return of more than 25% investing in stocks in the US and Singapore. We benchmark the effectiveness of V.I.P. using two KPIs namely ROI of 20% or more for every of our graduates as well as the use of not more than an average of 15 minutes per month.

SI: You mentioned about being “financially free”, what does it mean? And how could investors benefit from the V.I.P. amid current market volatility?
MK: A person is financially free when his/her passive income exceeds his/her total expenses. Even for value investors, we love volatility. The greater the volatilities, the better so that we could pick up good companies at undervalued prices. For example, on 8 August 2011, most of the share prices dropped because of the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating on the US to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. This creates buying opportunity. If we buy at a discount of let’s say 20% from our target price, it means that we are increasing our profit margin by 20%. Options premium also increases with volatility which translates into a higher profit when selling Options. I love one of Warren Buffett’s saying – “Mr Market is there to serve you and not to instruct you”.

SI: With so much packed into the V.I.P., what is the cost and duration like? Would there be any recourse if the V.I.P. proved to be of limited or no applicable use to investors who have gone for the program?
MK: What is the cost? We will not tell you until we have shared with you how valuable our training can be. It’s like the stock market – never look at the stock price until you know how much the company is worth. The duration is 4 full days with a life-time of revision and a life-time of monthly ‘Live’ investment sessions and gatherings. We also have an online support group, where we answer any queries that our graduates might have. As for the recourse, it has never happened in the past, and we will ensure that it will never happen in the future because it is our duties to ensure that all of our trainees go through a vigorous process of training and mentoring. On this note, if the trainee wishes to revise what they have learnt previously, we are more than happy that he/she comes back for the training.

SI: Last but not least, what is the developmental roadmap for V.I.P.?
MK: Our goal remains to help every of our graduates becoming financially free by using only 15 minutes a month, and we are always looking to improvising our programmes. Currently, we are registering the trademarks of our proprietary Value Investing Funnel (VIA Funnel)™ as well as Value Investing Options Strategy (VIOs)™. To top it off, we will be hosting a mega event next year. Do keep a look out at www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:07/10/11

Personal Market View - Stock Screen for short term

Stock Screen for short term
by ckchoy

recent strong and good speculation stock ( long ) - Noble. Can bet below 1.30
second good - NOL ( Phillip upgraded )
Capitaland show sign of weakness compared to previous days and weeks before.
Cosco stagnant.

Probability is your best friend

2011,Sep,28
Posteado por passiontrader

If someone tells you that the probability of getting money from buying lottery is much lower than picking money on the streets, will you stop buying them? I guess probably not. People buy lottery even though they know that the chances of striking rich is very low. Why? They are not buying lottery. They are buying hope, and hope can be a very expensive thing in the stock market.

Hope is everywhere in the stock market. People buy stocks and hope that they will make money. If the stocks fall after they buy, they refuse to cut loss because they are buying the hope that the price will rise in the future. That make them lose even more. For successful traders, they are playing with probability, not hope. They trade on high probability trades.
What are high probability trades? These are trades, usually through technical analysis, which will produce high probability of winning. Professional traders follow their own trading rules, which has been thoroughly tested to produce high probability trades. You may think, “Wouldn’t I be able to make money if I follow their system?” Of course you can, provided you follow their trading plans without emotion. There are a lot of courses out there that shows you how their systems can make money. Just need to follow their buy and sell signals. The only problem. Can you really put that into action? If you have 3 consecutive losses on your trades, do you still have the confidence to follow the trading plan?
High probability trades does not mean you will not lose money. It just means that you have a high probability of winning. You need to have a strict risk management policy and a trust in your own system. Finding high probability trading system is easy. The difficult part is believing in it and executing it.

My current market position by financiallyfreenow

September 28, 2011 by financiallyfreenow

The market has been volatile for since 1st August 2011 mainly due to the economic problems in Europe and US. STI has hit the 52-week low on Monday, 26th September after closing at 2654 points. The problems in Europe would take time to solve and the volatility may continue for some time.
It’s the first time since I started investing in June 2009 that I’m seeing so much fear and uncertainty in the market. What is my position currently? I have sold off some overvalued stocks like Super (sold in June) and sold off silver (in August) and cut loss on Hock Lian Seng (in Sept). I have also reduced my positions in First REIT and Starhill Global REIT. I’m holding onto certain positions like Kingsmen, Vicom and STI ETF as I believe they are still undervalued. The P/E ratio of the STI market is around 8 and I’ll holding on to it even though STI is on a downtrend.
I don’t want to liquidate all my positions and buy-back later with the use of technical analysis. There are two reasons for this.
Firstly, I do not want to time the market. One cannot predict accurately the macroeconomic issues and the effect it would have on the stock market as there are too many complex variables involved. The Asian markets have dropped more than the DOW even though the liquidity problem is not in Asia.  The debt problem will take time solve but I’m more comfortable holding onto my positions as the dividends I receive in the meantime will cushion my paper losses. After the problem is over, the stocks will surely recover as they are fundamentally strong companies. I’m “loading up on my bullets” (saving up cash) to buy my companies at a cheaper price should prices plunge. I’ll average down if I have losses of 15% or more and will buy in batches instead of all at one go.
Secondly, even though the overall market may fall, some stocks will not fall as much or may even rise (it’s rare). These stocks are usually the defensive counters. So, it’s futile to sell and buy back later as I may be hurting my returns.
As an investor, it is paramount to keep up with the economic news and know where the world is heading towards. However, you should not let any negative news affect your investment decisions and make you emotional. Keep out the noise and focus on business fundamentals.  By focusing on the fundamentals of the company you are holding on to and by knowing the intrinsic value of the business, you will do much better by not selling off your stocks prematurely and hurting your returns. Keep a long-term view of your stocks and remember that “what goes down, must come up” (provided the companies are fundamentally strong).  In the long run, earnings drive the value of a company and reversion to the mean will occur. The fear that is gripping the markets now will turn to confidence after some time and markets will rise again. Also, always keep some cash and don’t be fully invested, ever. Save up a certain percentage of your salary every month. This kitty will come in handy when valuations drop after a temporary negative news of the economy or your company.

Personal Market View - HSI 14/9/2011 - Small Capitulation

HSI 14/9/2011 - Small Capitulation

by ckchoy

Afternoon HSI reopen gapped down slightly but later the downtrend accerelated fast and hit 18630 (-400).  About 300 pts above 18320.  18320 is a magic number where it is -25% from this year high of 24419, which it may represent HSI entering into bear market.
While trading on the index, I was sensing market's panic was peaked. Although volume not that high, it could be a small capitulation may have happen. HSI made a U-turn from here, market may have hit at least a short term bottom. Can buy.
Cut loss if HSI hit below 18320.

曹仁超:大难不死有后福(20100901)

过去三十个月本港楼价上升80%，但当8月9日九肚山地皮以底价成交，是否本港楼价下调讯号！？大和证券分析员指出香港第二季GDP较第一季回落0.5％，是否意味香港经济进入收缩期？2008年9月雷曼事件引发11月中国政府宣布4万亿元人民币刺激经济方案，目前是否开始收缩？上月恒生指数出现死亡交叉（50天线跌破250天线），在2008年5月那次经验，是未来六个月股市大泻；但2010年6 月那次经验，是未来半年股市上升。这次又如何？

美国去年11月再推QE2，但恒生指数却由去年11月的24989点回落到今年8月最低18868点，并未产生财富效应！在炒股不睇市环境下，一般小投资者亏损占多数，能做到止蚀不止赚则更难。

美国完成迷失十年

美国进入「日式衰退」，主要是私人企业自2007年起开始去杠杆化，2009年3月依赖政府增加借贷刺激经济复苏，情况有如1994年的日本。今年8月 QE2完结后，私人企业仍没有增加借贷，情况亦有如1997年的日本。克鲁明博士认为财赤不重要，只要政府继续推QE3，美国经济仍可繁荣下去。可是日本过去十七年的经济表现，恐怕这次克鲁明博士是看错了。

今天美国问题一如1990年起的日本或1997年后的香港，是来自分配不平衡，财富过分集中在社会20%人口手中（更甚者集中在1%人口手中），QE及QE2只令财富更加集中，又怎能解决当前问题？或者听听来自日本野村证券首席经济学家 Richard Koo意见，了解一下什么是「资产负债表衰退」。2000年起的美国一如1990年起的日本，所不同者是1994年前日圆继续升值，令日经平均数一沉不起。美元自2000年起贬值令道指在2007年创新高。日本至今已迷失二十年，并继续迷失下去；美国亦完成迷失十年及继续迷失下去。

7月份内地CPI上升6.5%再创近期新高，其中食物类价格上升14.8%（猪肉上升56.7%）；反之居住价格只上升5.9%。会否加息？以外国经验，食物及燃料价格对利率并不敏感，猪肉价循环周期一般需6至9个月（即肉价上升到供应量上升需时6至9个月）。估计猪肉价在8月份见顶，9月起回落。内地CPI 中，食物所占比例重达三分一，是内地CPI升幅较香港高的原因。下半年起原料价开始回落，估计内地仍需加息一次及收紧银根两次，明年CPI升幅应回落到 4%左右。

买A股有买贵冇买错

内地2007年起进入高通胀期（刺激主要来自工资上升），情况一如八十年代、九十年代的香港。由加薪速度加快引发良性通胀，一般可维持十五年。换言之，今时今日投资内地股票，只会买贵，不会买错。理由是中国人储蓄率高达35％，美国人只有2％。中国有没有问题？有，但不是大问题。

人民币已升至十七年来高位（过去十四个月兑美元升值7％），内地贫富差距带来社会不稳定。太多人买不起楼、负担不起医疗费或子女教育费，其不满情绪已接近爆炸点。人民币升值不但无法压抑消费物价上升，反令制造业经营困难，引发大量工人失业。

人民币升值亦压抑不了内地楼价上升，中国政府应进一步大力压抑内地房地产价格，平息民愤，以免走上日本或香港之路。近三十年各国政府政策皆向有钱阶级倾斜，以为创富较分配财富更重要。今天英国贫富差距问题已引发暴动，香港政府宜尽速解决此问题，不然香港社会将步英国后尘，咁就大件事。

8月份美国国债被downgrade，后果不是债券跌价而是股市，美国联储局正在重复十多年前日本银行之路，保证未来两年维持低利率，结果只令长期债券（例如十年期以上）利率一步回落，但股市却反复下跌，理由是避险心态。

2002年10月到2007年10月那次透过减息、减税、美元贬值去令美股上升了五年。这次QE及QE2只支持美股上升两年，只是最近一个月全球股市失去8万亿美元市值，相信高消费零售股亦渐受压力。

利率倒挂 九死一生

美国第二季GDP只上升1.6%。过去每次美国GDP增长率低于2%，明年出现衰退机会高达70%。十年期债券利率同三个月期利率差收窄又是另一令人担心讯号，失业率无法回落是第三个令人担心的讯号。经济学家（不是投资机构）认为明年美国经济出现衰退机会超过50%。2000年起的衰退，2007年10月股市大幅回落后，引发2008年衰退亦一样，我们皆出现九十天期利率高出长期（利率倒挂，十次有九次事后出现衰退），但这次却没有出现。

至于美股指数回落40%后出现衰退已多次不准（例如1987年），因此明年是否出现衰退（连续两季GDP负增长）？仍是五五波。许多人把凯恩斯理论与费雪效应混为一谈，其实两者差异很大。凯恩斯认为需求不足引发衰退，因此政府应制造需求去刺激经济，并透过印刷货币支付所制造出来的需求，因此令CPI上升。费雪效应并不鼓励政府制造需求，只须由联储局不断向市场购入债券去压低利率，透过低利率去刺激GDP增长。

观察日本自1994年实施货币宽松政策的结果，初期的确刺激日股上升，但到了1997年却变成流动性陷阱，日股又再回落。和日本不同的是，日本的货币宽松政策并没有刺激金价上升及全球原材料价上升，但美元持续弱势令资金流向金市及商品市场，刺激金价及原材料价上升。因为美元是计算金价、原材料货币单位，最后结果是否一如日本只产生流动性陷阱，抑或摧毁美国银行业的借贷能力，或是陷入滞胀期？无人可预知。

高频交易如「快闪党」

8月1日至12日，美股成交额较2011年1月到7月平均成交额高出80％，可见高频交易在跌市中所扮演的角色。两星期内美股失去2.2万亿美元市值，情况同2010年5月初相似。去年5月面对QE完成，大量高频交易令美股在一星期内失去8620亿美元市值（美国证券及期货交易所报告）。高频交易类似社会上的「快闪党」，可以在极短时间内造成很大破坏，然后又消失。美国司法部门已联同美国证监部追查高频交易及研究是否须要立法监管。在高频交易下股市已变得非常Ugly。

税制改革可能引发资金回流支持美元汇价，摩根大通估计美国519间跨国大企业海外资金高达1.375万亿美元，例如苹果有760亿美元、微软420亿美元、思科288亿美元，谷歌已动用百多亿美元收购摩托罗拉，其他大企业又如何？小心随时出现美元回流美国潮，9月起是否Time to Bargain Hunt？恐惧是投资上最大的敌人。

2008年8月开始黄金同股市De-couple（金升、股跌），近期甚至向其他商品De-coupling（商品价回落、黄金一样升），黄金变成一枝独秀。上述情况极之危险，黄金不再用作对抗通胀，而是代表投资者对货币不信任，最后如果不是金价回落便是货币制度崩溃。

社会学家曾做一个实验：将十个中学生在纽约不同地区放下，要求在天黑前大家聚在一起！

根据数学理论：在一个超过1000万人口的大城市，来自十处不同地区的人是不可能在一天内聚在一起的。但结果刚相反，很快他们便聚在一起，理由是中学生皆喜欢纽约时代广场，他们不约而同地去了时代广场。

金融市场情况亦一样，人人认为黄金是避难所，上述想法令金价一度升至1913美元一盎斯。当道指／黄金比率出现1:6（一股道指六盎斯黄金），黄金是否仍有投资价值，或只有投机价值？2007年10月金价只是740美元，当时道指／黄金比率接近1:18，更加不要说2000年时道指黄金比率接近1:40…… 任何投资项目一旦疯狂起来，非理性可解释，例如1980年1月曾见过两者比率是1:1。

欧、美经济在2000年起进入「慢动作式崩溃期」。一如1990年起的日本，政府的干预只能带来短暂反弹。问题是欧、美加起来GDP达30万亿美元（欧洲16.3万亿美元、美国10.1万亿美元；两者相加较日本大8倍），他们的慢动作崩溃不似日本可以不影响其他国家，因欧、美加起来GDP是中国GDP的6倍。中国可独善其身多久？

2009 年3月至今美国政府增加了2.3万亿美元负债去推行QE及QE2，亦只能将失业率推低至9%或以下。推出QE3的效果又如何？美国政府债券失去AAA评级后，法国AAA评级亦岌岌可危，如法国亦失守，欧洲只剩下德国仍然拥有AAA地位。8月9日恒指跌至18868点获支持，证明基本因素较技术分析更重要，资金流向较市场情绪更重要，趋势分析较价值投资法更重要。

以Fibonacci计算，牛市二期可调整前升幅38.2％、50%或 61.8％。恒指从2008年10月的10676点上升到去年11月24989点，共上升14313点，调整前升幅38.2%，可见19522点，已失守；如调整前升幅50%，可见17833点；如调整前升幅61.8％，可见16144点。最后在哪一点才是真正支持点？事后才知晓。

1933 年希特拉被德国总统兴登保（Paul Von Hindenburg）委任为总理，1月30日希特拉出任总理后要求总统解散国会再选，总统答应在3月5日举行大选。纳粹党在大选中获44％选票上台，在 3月23日通过授权法案（Enabling Act），让希特拉拥有独裁者权力。4月1日他发动抵制犹太人生意行动，并在1935年1月通过Nuremberg Laws on Citizenship and Race：取消犹太人市民资格，当年只有十万犹太人离开德国。1938年11月发生「水晶之夜」（Crystal Night）事件，大量犹太人经营的商店橱窗被打烂。由1933年希特拉上台到1939年1月亦只有一半犹太人离开德国，仍有超过一半人选择留下……人总是心存希望。

价值投资法只是测量工具而非Timing仪器，例如P／E8倍到12倍是抵买；P／E12倍到16倍是合理；P／E16倍到 22倍是偏高；P／E22倍以上是不合理。8月份恒指P／E 12倍代表股市开始进入「抵买区」。资金流向例如美国政府推出QE及QE2，短期可推动美股上升。当香港面对资金流入（例如港元升至7.7兑一美元）股市便上升，面对资金流出（例如港元跌至7.8兑一美元）股市便回落。

VIX跌至28点宜沽货

其他因素例如基金只持有3%现金时，投资者便应沽出股票；基金增持现金到6%以上，投资者便应买入股票。因为基金经理亦是人，他们常常睇错市。至于市场情绪方面，美国的 VIX指数十分有用，如在28点时便应沽出，见50点便可买入。利用基本分析，找出那些纯利能保持每年上升25%到35%的企业股票才买，纯利不前或回落的企业股票便沽出。上述工具有助分析大市，但无助寻顶或寻低。

1987年10月股灾、1998年8月17日俄罗斯政府债务危机、2008年9月18日雷曼事件等，事后皆证明「大难不死、必有后福」。2011年8月欧债危机后又如何？

2008 年底内地工业企业单位共190.3万间，从业员1.17383亿人，相信已是高潮，2009年起进入贵精不贵多时代。大型工业企业、高技术水平工人渐成主流，中小型工业企业面对淘汰压力。上述情况过去在西方曾经出现，2008年开始亦在内地出现，汰弱留强是资本主义制度一部分，虽然十分残酷但无法避免。

2008 年中国第一、二、三产业所占GDP比重是10.7%、47.4%、41.8%。按世界银行数据进入中产收入国家的比重是6%、34%及60%，中国正朝向改变。2008年中国就业人口比重，在第一、二、三产业各占40%、27%及33%，国际劳工组织中等收入国家数据应是27%、26%及47%。上述数字证明中国第三产业发展不足，理由是国家对国民经济仍有很大控制力，形成第三产业发展速度很慢。

2008年中国城市化达45.7%，仍然偏低（OECD水平是80%），太多人口停留在农村及经济增长仍是粗放型，以高消耗、高污染、低效益状况去追求GDP高增长，尤其是国家支持的重化工业大量消耗能源和基础性资源。中国工业企业占全国能源总消费量70%以上，尤其是钢铁、有色金属、化工、建材等，已占去工业企业能源总消费70%以上。

落后产业结构不但导致中国高染污，同时令全球资源价格高企。2008年中国消耗能源21.16亿吨油当量，仅次于美国，占全球总消耗量17.3%，但GDP 只占全球6.4%，代表中国单位GDP所消耗能源是美国4.3倍、日本8.1倍，只要中国有效地利用能源及基础性资源，不但迅速解决中国严重污染问题，同时可令全球资源价格大幅回落。上述情况既是商机又是危机。

机会是创造出来的。例如2003年的自由行为香港创造另一次投资大好机会；2009年3月美国的QE及2008年11月中国的4万亿元人民币刺激经济方案，亦为投资者创造另一次机会。智者往往能及时把握机会而壮大；愚者则因错失机会而抱怨。经过2009年10月至今，不少二线股股价大幅调整后，对智者而言下半年是另一次择肥而食的大好机会，对愚者而言则是另一个抱怨日子。

下半年科技股寻宝？

例如去年中国政府宣布保障房建设，对内地建筑股及建材股是机会，对内房股是压力；又如2009年开始的美元贬值潮，对智者而言可透过投资资源股及能源股而获利，愚者却在抱怨联汇制度下令香港物价大升而受损。既然我们改变不了大气候，为何不利用小气候去获利？在过去，通胀率一旦上升，利率亦会上升，以便把通胀压制，例如1980年至2000年，但2001年「九一一事件」后美国虽然面对通胀上升，但利率却跟不上，造成过去十年资源价、楼价大升的负利率时代。

2011 年下半年如美国CPI升幅下降，是否出现另一大趋势？1980年美国货币政策出现改变，结束过去经济的盛衰循环周期，取而代之是一个又一个泡沫，理由是资金充斥市场，总要找寻出路，投资策略变成如何捕捉一个又一个泡沫。2011年下半年，长达12年的原材料价上升期是否又已完成，是否需要找寻另一个在形成中的泡沫作为资金出路？

中国发展内需经济的消息，已刺激本港消费股股价狂升到P／E30倍或以上。今年「十二五」规划，政府已表态支持高科技行业，但高科技股至今仍然受投资者忽略，下半年是否应在高科技股身上寻宝？

■多谢上海德润投资公司董事长陈钢捐助农家女8万元人民币。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 曹仁超博客
Publish date:27/08/11

曹仁超:A股牛市二期明年7月前结束

八月 27th, 2011 by 曹仁超
日前，香港投资评论家曹仁超接受采访时认为，股市的黎明即将来临，相信2012年全球资金回流中国股市机会很大。

改信趋势投资法

问：上证指数近期创下2437点的年内新低，市场整体市盈率水平也处于历史低位，在国内经济基本面没有发生大变化的情况下，这种连续下跌是否完全由于对欧美经济的恐慌造成的？

答：上证指数2009年8月开始进入漫长的牛市二期，短则两年，长则三年。由2009年8月起计算，有理由相信A股牛市二期在今年9月至明年7月前结束，即明年下半年极有可能进入牛市三期，完成一个四年半左右的上升周期。欧美经济一如日本进入没完没了的回落期，对中国出口业务一定有影响，这也是过去两年内地工业股大幅回落的原因。

问：听说您近期开始买入工业股，是出于何种考虑，现在是市场的底部吗？A股市场工业股目前估值非常便宜，从价值投资的角度是否可以买入？

答：欧美经济进入回落期，由此内地工业股自2009年起进入汰弱留强阶段。经过两年回落后估计在今年四季度见底，明年通过发展内销市场，企业净利润将恢复增长。投资者要学习在黑暗中前进，因为黎明快来临。价值投资法有一定的参考价值，但自1980年起本人已改信趋势投资法，即盛衰循环周期，而不相信好公司业绩年年好。

问：目前GDP增速下滑渐成现实，货币政策也没有放松迹象，在双重夹击下，三季度A股指数能走出反转行情吗？

答：任何国家或地区经过30年高速成长后，GDP增速下滑是必然现象，中国也不可能例外。未来中国GDP增长率应由过去30年平均每年9%下滑到未来5年平均7%，5年后进一步下滑到年平均5%，2009年8月起A股下调理由便是反映这点。2009年时很少有人相信中国GDP增长率将下滑，股市仍是高P/E期。今年大部分投资者已相信GDP下滑无法避免，“消息已入市”日后不会再影响A股走势。货币政策只有短期影响，长期而言股市升降取决于经济状况。老实说GDP年增长率7%并不算差，相信2012年全球资金回流中国股市机会十分大。

升值或阻牛市步伐

问：近期有观点认为，中国未来十年都不会出现大牛市，主要是因为拟上市股票供给的无限性和货币供给的政府控制之间的矛盾，您对此如何看？

答：美国过去100年股市都是牛熊交替。香港过去50年也是如此，为何中国可以例外？只有在不成熟的市场，股价才由供求决定，成熟市场股价由公司业绩决定。香港在1986年联交所未成立之前，上市公司总市值只有几万亿港元，今天已是几十万亿港元。股票在过去日子供应量上升10倍，但恒生指数由2000点一度升至2007年的32000点，今天仍在20000点左右，上升10倍。中国2007年前是不成熟市场，2009年起渐为成熟市场，唯一令中国不出现大牛市的理由是人民币大幅升值。例如，1985年至1994年，日元由250兑1美元升至76日元兑1美元，升值3倍。如人民币在未来日子大幅升值到2元兑1美元，中国将没有大牛市。其他因素对牛市影响十分有限。

问：国际金价业已突破1900美元一盎司，在QE3传闻不断的情况下，已经超买的黄金还能继续投资吗？

答：至今为止个人仍不相信有QE3。今天金价只反映人们对美元、欧元甚至日元及瑞士法朗的不信任，是非理性行为。不要抛空黄金，但适量减持有必要。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 曹仁超博客
Publish date:27/08/11

市场底部本月或下月就会出现 - 曹仁超

具有“香港股神”之称的曹仁超昨日在深圳举行的“华润信托2011年投资论坛”上指出，经济转型为资本市场带来了新的契机，看好内地地产、金融、消费、医疗、保险、信息、旅游等领域未来的发展空间。

“吸取了1980年代日本的历史教训，中国内地2009年起已开始阻止楼市泡沫恶化及银行信贷过度膨胀，应可避免经济出现硬着陆，但软着陆或难以避免。”曹仁超认为，随着信贷收缩、经济增长率逐渐放缓，内地经济将进入一段较长时期的平稳发展期；而从长期来看，内地已面对经济转型期或称后工业社会，由2007年开始，应有15年到20年的高增长。

在曹仁超看来，内地经济自2007年开始已从“百花齐放”期步入“汰弱留强”期。中小企业的市场占有率不断被大企业侵蚀；出口、制造业所占GDP比重下降，服务业、房地产、金融、虚拟经济等所占GDP比重上升，行业性盛衰交替出现。

“有些行业在GDP中的比重将不断提升，而有些行业则会萎缩，可谓是危机与商机并存。”曹仁超指出，地产、金融、消费、医疗、保险、信息、旅游等理论上仍有很大发展空间，这些领域将成为经济增长重点。

但是，这并不意味着制造业等传统领域就完全没有投资机会，曹仁超认为，内地制造业自2007年起已出现十分激烈的淘汰赛，不少工业股股价跌幅高达80%或以上，约30%或以上的中小型工厂已被淘汰出局。工业股经整合后相信在今年第四季开始应有上升空间。

此外，曹仁超还认为，消费股在过去几年升幅十分大，部分估值已到了极不合理水平，如有意外，股价出现大幅滑落机会很大。

而对于内地目前的楼市，他则持谨慎态度，“今年内地一线城市楼价已停止上升，只依赖二线城市楼价上升去支撑，这代表内地城市房地产的投资吸引力已开始下降，投资者宜小心。”

http://www.caorenchao.com/1249.html

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 曹仁超博客
Publish date:25/08/11

失败与成功只差两行

by ckchoy

失败与成功的投资者所经历的都有所相同，只是成功者多做了两行。

失败的投资者： 
星期一大举进攻
星期二以守为攻
星期三破釜沉舟
星期四背水一战
星期五两袖清风 

成功的投资者：                             
星期一大举进攻
星期二以守为攻
星期三破釜沉舟
星期四背水一战
星期五两袖清风
星期六面壁思过
星期天卷土重来

做個成功Cash is King執行者

二○○八年十月，滿街的股評人都在說Cash is King，最近，Cash is King的聲音又再響起，四處可聽到。

實際上，許多人對Cash is King的真正意義一知半解，以為死抱着現金不放就是Cash is King，這是錯誤的。我認為，真正懂得運用Cash is King概念的投資者，是當股市跌至面目全非、股價超值低賤時，自己手上有相當多的現金可以買股，這才是Cash is King概念的最佳應用者，Cash is King絕對不是在股價低賤時將手上的超值股、優質股以極低賤的價格拋售，然後持有大量現金不敢做任何事。這種人，往往因為在股價低賤時沽售所有的股票，就算沽售後股價再跌，他們也絕對沒有膽量再入市買，他們只會高唱Cash is King，並慶幸自己能在股價較高一點的水平賣掉。

絕非股價低殘沽貨
除非銀行的利率優厚，持有現金可以收利息，否則，像目前這種利率水平，Cash is King只會讓自己的現金被通貨膨脹吃掉。在這種情況之下，Cash哪裏是King？這種人往往會高唱Cash is King好一段時間，往往得等到股市再次出現狂熱時，他們才會解除恐懼感，並從恐懼感轉變為貪婪，覺得錢存在銀行沒有利息，不如趁股市狂熱入市賺快錢。

股市裏最多的就是這種人，一次又一次的低賣高買，一次教訓、兩次教訓都學不到，理由就是他們只會在恐懼時想起Cash is King。

真正成功的Cash is King概念執行者，他們在股市跌至他們認為是超值的時候就入市，而且是大舉而入，為甚麼他們在股價低賤時有大量的現金呢？理由就是股市在狂熱時，他們不狂熱，絕不高追，並開始不斷地累積資金，持有現金不動，不會為股市的亢奮而亢奮，他們持有大量的現金耐心的等，等到滿街的股評人都在唱Cash is King時，他們的確手上有大量的現金來成為King。

入股比亞迪 仍是贏家
看看股神巴菲特，最近他有能力一擲五十億美元買美國銀行股票，這就是Cash is King，這說明他在之前的確持有非常大量的現金，等待他認為股價超值時出擊，二○○八年九月開始，他也是如此做。今日，不少人譏笑巴菲特買比亞迪，但是，這些人不知道，巴菲特是在甚麼時候入股比亞迪，當時入股價有多高，與今日的股價比較，巴菲特仍然是贏家。巴菲特從來沒有成功的撈底，也就是說他入市後股價往往再下跌，但這不重要，他看的是長遠的前景，只要購買時股價是超值的價格，耐心地持有，一定會柳暗花明又一村。

輯錄自 418期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date:30/08/11

難為牛熊定分界

目前股市是牛市？還是熊市？
市場上至少有三種說法，第一種說法是牛市已死，熊市剛剛開始；第二種說法是牛市未死，目前的調整只是牛市中的大調整；第三種說法是過去兩年多的升市根本就不是牛市，牛市從未出現過，過去兩年的升市只是熊市的反彈。
我認為牛市、熊市之爭根本是無聊的行為。

何謂牛市？何謂熊市？如何下定義？

牛市熊市根本沒有甚麼科學化的定義。

牛熊定義眾多

牛市熊市之稱根本是華爾街一種流行語罷了，有好幾個不同的定義。

有人對牛市的定義是當股市由低位往上升，能衝破上一次歷史高位，即為牛市。若以此為定義，牛市的來臨是不可能預先知道，只能在股市（一般以主要的指數為準）升破歷史新高才能確定。若以此為定義，過去二十年，日本就一直是處於熊市，長達二十多年的熊市。

也有人較技術性地為牛熊市下定義，即主要指數跌破二百五十天移動平均線稱為熊市，升上二百五十天移動平均線稱為牛市。因此，也有人將二百五十天移動平均線視為牛熊分界線。不過，這個定義不可靠，因為指數可以在今日跌破二百五十天移動平均數，也可以在明日升上二百五十天移動平均數。於是，又有人說，要等到五十天移動平均數跌破二百五十天移動平均數才是牛市結束，熊市開始的確認；反之，五十天移動平均數升上二百五十天移動平均數就確認新牛市的開始。

再看看一百多年前，華爾街如何對牛市熊市下定義：一百多年前，牛市熊市之稱到底從何而來已無法考據。不過，創辦《華爾街日報》及創造道瓊斯指數的道氏則在他的《華爾街日報》中提過牛市熊市這個名詞多次。後來，有人將道氏的評論整理成一套所謂的道氏理論，道氏理論成了今日想學股市技術分析的人必定要學的理論。

可是，道氏理論並不是道氏親筆寫成的一套完整理論，正如今日我們可以在書店裏見到數十種，甚至更多的有關今日股神畢菲特的投資理論，這些所謂的畢菲特理論全是他人的作品。當年，道氏在他的文章中提到牛市熊市這個名稱多次，他形容牛市是股市出現長達一年至數年的連續反覆上升，熊市則相反。不過，道氏也說牛市分三期，熊市僅二期，這是不是說牛市期間比熊市長？

賺錢就是好市
既然牛市、熊市有這麼多種不同的定義，辯論目前是牛市還是熊市並沒有多大的意義，還是套句鄧小平的黑貓白貓論更有意思，即不論是牛市熊市，能賺到錢就是好市。今日股市衍生工具繁多，不論是升市跌市，都有人能賺到很多錢，也有人會虧光。記着，股市是一個很熱的廚房，只有耐得了熱的人才適合進入。目前全球股市極不穩定，沽空撈底的風險一樣大，祝大家好運！

輯錄自 416期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】

励志电影Facing the Giants（永不放弃）

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wdtAz3TBwZA

励志电影Facing the Giants（永不放弃)

这个短片摘自经典励志电影《Facing the Giants》中文名叫《面对巨人》或《永不放弃》，是一部值得珍藏的励志佳作。
短片告诉我们
1、一滴水要是容入了大海，很难找到自我，人也是一样，茫茫人海中，如果你只是一个平平凡凡的人，别人很难注意你，甚至是嘲笑你。如果你凭自己坚强的意志力，挑战自我，超越了极限，别人自然会关注你，而且是从内心的佩服你，就像布洛克一样，这样你就成功了。
2、天生我材必有用，一个人能力的大小不完全是由成功的大小来决定的，取决于的是你发挥能力，挖掘潜力过程中坚持不懈，永不放弃的精神，当然前提是你要自信，要去发现你的潜能，要尽全力地去完成就像布洛克一样。
3、要想别人依赖你，必须自己相信自己，竭力以赴，最后到达终点。
4、路慢慢其修远兮，吾将上下而求索，终点有多远，我们不管，我们只要竭尽全力，加油，别放弃，继续，就这样，很好……如果你做到了，终点也就不远了！
5、没有最好，只有更好

名家观点:美债危机为何殃及亚洲?

 

名家观点:美债危机为何殃及亚洲？
财经 评论 2011-08-17 17:08
8月初，亚洲各地股市一路狂泻，这让亚洲投资者产生了一种似曾相识的感觉。

亚洲股市动荡的原因，在于最近发生的一系列事件（欧洲主权债务危机、美国旷日持久的预算谈判、以及随后美国信贷评级遭到调降等）导致投资者忧心忡忡。仅8月的第一周，亚洲股市的市值便跌去十分之一。

要美戒债瘾

在此之前，亚洲市场和投资者就曾遭受过并非源自亚洲的全球金融危机的严重冲击。这次的情形与那次极其相似。由此看来，当前这场危机可能再次削弱亚洲投资者的信心。

在标准普尔取消美国的最高信贷评级后，中国第一时间通过官方通讯社新华社发表声明，要求美国勒紧裤腰带、戒掉“债瘾”。

中国是美国国债最大的外国持有者。据报道，在中国的外汇储备中，美国国债占到1.3兆美元。其它国家的反应就没那么尖锐了；韩国政府就在召集高级官员举行紧急会议之后，重申了对美国国债的信心。

美国的外债约半数为亚洲国家持有。除了各国央行和主权财富基金，其它机构也在十分密切地关注着事态的发展，尽管它们的资产构成或投资准则不太可能因美国信用等级被调降而改变。

一段时间以来，亚洲主权财富基金不断下调发达经济体政府债务在自己投资组合中所占的比重。

基金管理公司担心，随着各机构开始顾及市场环境以及有所加剧的不确定性和波动性，它们外包资产管理的计划可能会被推迟。

散户最紧张

散户投资者是最紧张的，这一点可以通过散户十分活跃的台湾、韩国、中国内地和香港股市应声下跌判断出来。

在台湾，随着投资者纷纷退出股市，担保维持率出现下降，投资者都在等待政府稳定基金进入股市的信号。

韩国的情况也一样。尽管与其它地区股市相比，亚洲股市7月份的表现总体上要好一些，但由于投资者突然意识到美国很可能出现双底衰退，再加上美国主权债务引发的担忧，投资者的信心有所削弱。

自去年以来，中国散户投资者的信心就一直在谷底波动。在中国，异常火爆的房地产市场向来是许多投资者的主要投资重心，零售银行也不太热衷于动用存款来支持投资。据《上海日报》报道，去年中国基金资产总额缩水了9%以上。

今年新成立的基金一直在艰难地进行筹资，因为在中国，作为共同基金主要发行渠道的零售银行，并不太重视销售基金，而是更在意维持贷存比。这就使本已拥挤不堪的发行渠道竞争更加激烈，从而限制了新基金发行的范围和规模。

今年，基金持续遭遇资金外流，现金水平一直维持在10%左右。同时，中国A股市场的成交量也有所下降。投资者信心的恢复是共同基金需求恢复的前兆。

要提升投资者信心，必须有明确的证据证明：当前中国收紧银根和利率的政策周期已经见顶，通胀也已企稳，同时关于股市吸引力超过房地产市场的预期不断升温，这一系列条件都需要较长时间才会实现。

房产购兴减

从去年到最近这次市场动荡之前，香港共同基金的销售情况要更好一些。

近来股市出现的抛售很可能会在短期内影响投资者信心，各基金管理公司已作好应对大量赎回的准备。香港基金净销售额的中长期发展趋势显示出些许乐观态势。

对于香港投资者而言，房地产的吸引力已经见顶，新楼盘开盘之时引来的购买兴趣正不断减少。

与此同时，接近于零的银行存款利率，又限制了那些可能不愿再冒险持有外币的投资者的投资选择，持有外币一直是香港投资者热门选择之一。

如果中长期利率真的出现上升，我们可以预见到，能分享上涨行情收益同时兼顾资本保值的结构性产品会变得更受欢迎。

随着亚洲各地的投资者开始评估美国信贷降级的较长期影响，各机构很可能会把更多的注意力放在资产币种多样化上。

最近，台湾金融监督管理委员会提议，台湾的保险公司可以将至多10%的海外资产投资于在香港上市、以人民币计价的股票、债券、股票型基金和交易型指数基金（ETF）。

或许，这一迹象进一步表明，投资者的关注重心正逐渐远离美元和美国。

康礼贤 RCM Asia Pacific总执行长-英国《金融时报》

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:17/08/11