by ckchoy
Let's recap data from May till now, 17/6/2011, STI down 20 pts from 3179 to 3159 in May, and down 54 pts from May till now. For details refer to the indices data.
So what's next from here?
Let's look at some myths, baseless and no fundamental guessing
1) CLSA Fengsui prediction chart -
after a bumpy performance in May and June, July and August will be great.
2) 五穷六绝七翻身 - stocks to begin dropping in May and selling accerelating and to hit bottom in June, after that sunshine and rebound from July.
How about forecast with better reason?
1) Mid year window dressing in June end. Quarter/mid year/year end window dressings may not always happen but if prior months the general trend is down, then most likely window dressing will happen. Previous reference - March had a sharp sell off amid Japan crisis and 31/3/2011 had a great window dressing rally.
How about better forecast with fundamental reason?
1) mid year earning announcement is around the corner in July - August. There are companies to expect to report good earnings hence this will drive up the share prices. How about companies with not so good or even bad earnings? Like what we can see in current prices action performance now, all have already dropped substantially. To certain extend, many negative news and factors have been factored in the stock prices, hence further downside is limited.
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