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Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招-第54招- 盘中抢反弹,如何抢对宝
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Saturday, 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招-第54招- 盘中抢反弹,如何抢对宝

投资人问:
我每天一大早必定要到营业厅看盘,三年来如一日,且风雨无阻,每个客户经理都认识我,他们对我好客气!言归正传,我之所以保持全勤,是因为喜欢抢个短线玩玩,特别是每当遇上大盘急跌,我会立刻买进盘面上跌得最凶的个股希望大赚一票。但几十次的经验显示,往往是赚了指数却赔了股价,我选的个股并没有随指数反弹而上涨,令我伤透了心!是否可请您传授在盘中抢反弹的秘诀?我不能再买错个股了!

我一向不建议投资朋友过于频繁地短线进出,但在股市中,像你一样的人不少,的确有必要多提供大家一些实战经验。

以往每遇到突发利空,指数在盘中出现戏剧性的急挫,个股也纷纷中箭落马,一定有不少人会动脑筋想趁乱抢个反弹。但是,该挑什么样的个股才最有胜算呢?

多年来的细心观察,我心中最理想的具备反弹实力的个股买进排名依序是:
(1)原本已涨停锁死,却又因此打开来了的个股
(2)相对抗跌的强势股
(3)跌深但已出现单日“W底”或“倒头肩”型走势的个股

总有不少投资人特别喜欢去挑那些跌得最凶的几只,原因莫非是希望一举赚到最大的上下价差。这么做好吗?

基本上,跌得最凶的那些个股必须符合上述第(3)项的原则,这样才能避免因捡便宜却捡到的是别人急着丢出来的烫手山芋。

以“倒头肩”型走势为例,个股当日交易若出现这种走法,表示股价虽一度超跌,但买盘已介入且卖方已经缩手,此时抢个反弹之风险不大。

抢个一日反弹相当刺激,但是要有技术。首先,提醒大家要避开“第二波”跌得比“第一波”还深的个股。平常有机会在营业厅观盘的人,应耐心观察最具关键性的“第三波”发展,倘若这个“第三波”又是每况愈下式的跌得更深,那么根据统计,该股在当日由绿翻红的几率会低于10%。

相反的,若第三波的下跌能提前终止于第二波的低点之上,而股价已呈现“倒头肩”型的走势,则个股不但转危为安,且还有机相反的,若第三波的下跌能提前终止于第二波的低点之上,而股价已呈现“倒头肩”型的走势,则个股不但转危为安,且还有机会展开当日的强劲反弹行情。

举例说明:某只个股的开盘价是80元,但就在开盘后它一路下跌到77元,然后迅速回弹到79元,不幸却因在79元附近遇上突袭卖压,硬是又被打了下来;而这次更惨,居然跌到了新低点的75元,此后虽又是一波反弹,却仍是撞到了79元的铁板之后出现了第三波下跌。但需注意,这第三波的下跌如果只是来到77元就又缩脚了,机会终于来了,因为“倒头肩”的图形已经出现!77元将是一个较佳的当日买点!


很多人虽喜欢在盘中买来卖去的做短线交易,但却毫无耐心且从不去细心观察股价走势。



想预测大盘当日的走势?指数在盘中的图形变化也常提供了许多线索。

总之,在盘中抢反弹原本就属于高难度的行为,千万别以为买进跌得最凶的个股就有大赚的机会,要知道,有些个股之所以会跌得这么惨是另有原因的。



运用“倒头肩”或者是右脚比左脚高的“W底”等等代表底部完成的图形来先行过滤,才能增加获胜几率。
盘中股价经过两次拉回,但是出现了右脚比左脚高的W底图型,也非常可贵,同样是买进的好选择。


1985年2月至8月间,我抽样20只华尔街各行业具代表性的蓝筹股,依据它们在盘中的股价变化所获得的统计结果显示,当日行情中,个股出现右脚比左脚高的“W底”反弹形态时,若依上图①及②买点买进,能赚到当日差价的几率分别是:在①位置大约65%;在②位置大约77%。

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