五穷六绝七翻身
by ckchoy
五穷六绝七翻身是香港股市在1980年代至1990年代的一个都市传奇，是当时的经济分析员在参考过历年香港股市的升跌而得出的结论。结论指：股市在每逢5月的时候都会开始跌市，到了6月更会大跌，但到了7月，股市却会起死回生。
由于这个“预言”在发表之后数年都继续出现，使当时不少小股民都对这个传说深信不疑。不过，到了1990年代的中后期，开始有人以各种方式来“预防”这现象。这些“预防措施”包括在踏入3月之前，把手上的高价股票卖出，并于6月之时大手购入各种低价的优质股票，结果使这个升跌周期不断提早出现。(摘自百度百科)
返查数据，STI海峡时报指数在1月份从3190至3179，跌了11点
2月：3010，-169
3月：3105，+95
4月：3179，+74
5月至今3136，-43
既然1、2月跌，3、4月升，我们是否可以顺着次序预测5、6月跌？7、8月升？
我注意到1、2月份的交易量还好，有达到15至20亿以上的水平。但从3月开始，交易量就不断缩小。至今只维持在10亿上下，少得可怜。所以只要市场稳定，交易量逐步上升，市场就会随时重回活力。
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn
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Tuesday, 17 May 2011
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