Market Sense

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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: Personal Market View - 五穷六绝七翻身?
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this are personal views. No liability is accepted for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on the information provided herein.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Tuesday 17 May 2011

Personal Market View - 五穷六绝七翻身?

五穷六绝七翻身
by ckchoy

五穷六绝七翻身是香港股市在1980年代至1990年代的一个都市传奇,是当时的经济分析员在参考过历年香港股市的升跌而得出的结论。结论指:股市在每逢5月的时候都会开始跌市,到了6月更会大跌,但到了7月,股市却会起死回生。
由于这个“预言”在发表之后数年都继续出现,使当时不少小股民都对这个传说深信不疑。不过,到了1990年代的中后期,开始有人以各种方式来“预防”这现象。这些“预防措施”包括在踏入3月之前,把手上的高价股票卖出,并于6月之时大手购入各种低价的优质股票,结果使这个升跌周期不断提早出现。(摘自百度百科)

返查数据,STI海峡时报指数在1月份从3190至3179,跌了11点
2月:3010,-169
3月:3105,+95
4月:3179,+74
5月至今3136,-43
既然1、2月跌,3、4月升,我们是否可以顺着次序预测5、6月跌?7、8月升?
我注意到1、2月份的交易量还好,有达到15至20亿以上的水平。但从3月开始,交易量就不断缩小。至今只维持在10亿上下,少得可怜。所以只要市场稳定,交易量逐步上升,市场就会随时重回活力。

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