在支配金钱上,我是个非常谨慎的人。举个例说,我只会等到百货公司在打折的时候去大肆采购。因此,同样的东西我总是买得比别人便宜。办公室同事都对我这种自制功夫羡慕不已,并且建议我进军股票市场,替大家“复仇”,因为他们从来没有捡到过任何便宜。终于,我进场了!想知道此后一年我在股市中的“辉煌”战果吗?
在永远把持不追高,而且只在股价拉回之后才去捡便宜的原则下,10次中我就“中奖”了8次,而且这8次都是全程参与了股价的“一路跳楼大甩卖”!简直太不像话了!同事一致推派我为代表来请教您这个问题,责任重大啊!
我见过不少投资人,他们不但谨慎而且极具自制力,懂得不追高的道理——无论个股怎么狂飙,他们都毫不动心,因为生怕会接到最后一棒!但是,尽管如此,到最后他们仍是大输家,这究竟是为什么?
以实例说明:当个股由50元一路飙升到100元的过程中,王小姐虽然好几度都忍不住想在100元附近买进,但都由于个性谨慎,不愿追高而打消了念头。这种投资态度及策略其实极为正确,因为只要运气欠佳,谁都可能买到最高点!当然,眼睁睁地看到自己注意已久但一直没买的个股天天涨停板,那种滋味就好比在炎热的夏天,只能望着别人吃冰淇淋,而且是从头看到尾。这简直是种酷刑!所幸王小姐的自制力极佳,她坚持不追高的决心丝毫没有动摇!
一个月后,股价终于开始拉回,由最高峰盘旋了两个星期的100元跌回到了90元,而且停了好几天。在“受尽煎熬”苦苦等候了这么久以后,王小姐除了庆幸自己的正确判断,没有在最高点的100元买进以外,她更兴高采烈地下单以每股90元的“低价”一口气买了10手。
但不幸的事发生了,股价又开始天天下滑,一转眼便由90元跌到了80元。当然她又以捡便宜的心态再加买了5手!问题是,股价却是越买越低,十几天后,竟然跌回到起涨点的50元。股价这般走法已经将王小姐气得对买股票完全失去了信心!她觉得自己发挥了高度的耐心才终于等到了回档,但仍落到目前严重套牢的下场,真是灰心透了!
其实,在股市中,有太多人都犯了同样的错误,认为个股在回档的时候便可以开始大捡便宜了。依我的观察,在“大起大落”阶段的股市中,我们宁愿“追涨”而不去“追跌”!因为,当一只飙股一旦不再风光而开始走软,往往是即将暴跌的前兆。“怎么上就怎么下”是这类个股的最佳写照!
通常在一只个股开始回档整理的初期,反而是最危险的时刻,千万不要认为是捡到了便宜!特别是有大户穿梭其中,炒过了头的个股,它的整理期会相对加长,在没有经过一段股价“直直落”而成交量“急急缩”的漫长打底过程,最好敬而远之。
在华尔街服务期间,我便遇见过一只曾经风光了一年的超级热门股突然当头碰上了利空,股价竟然由198元跌跌停停地摔到了一年以后的5块钱。你们知道有多少人一路都在“捡便宜”吗?“捡便宜”反成了“捡破烂”,真是有苦说不出!
整体而言,股价的拉回分“短暂休息”与“长期整理”两种,如果不懂得如何分辨,那我劝你赶紧参考第23招的“春江水暖‘量’先知”,在值得注意的攻击量尚未放出之前,千万别又因手痒去捡便宜了!
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn
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Saturday, 25 June 2011
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