Monday 31 October 2011
Sunday 30 October 2011
Cut loss is hard work, really!
by Posteado por passiontrader
Anybody who trades understand the concept of cutting loss, but not everyone can do it. Why is it so difficult to cut loss? It took me almost 3 years to made myself put that into action. It’s real hard work to fight against my own emotions. Being a stock broker for the last 3 years, I came to realized that if you can’t bring yourself to cut loss, you will not be in this game for long. So what are some of the reasons (or excuses) that traders give themselves for not cutting loss?
1. I can’t reconciled myself to do it
Imagine that you have monitor this stock for the past few days, and after you finally decide to buy, the stock price suddenly fall to your cut loss within 5 minutes after buying. How would you feel? Think most people will start screaming at themselves, “How can this happen to me?”, “Why me?” You will start to hate the market for doing this to you. You just can’t bring yourself to cut loss at this instant. Just 5 minutes into the game and I lose money!! How to accept this? Arrgh…. Well, you better be. There’s a well known saying among traders, “Your first loss is your best loss”. If you don’t cut now, you will probably end up incurring more losses.
2. The stock price will rise once I cut loss
Funny right? It seems that the market knows what you are buying and wants to make a fool of you. You don’t sell, it keeps on falling. Once you sell, the price starts to rise almost immediately. How you hate the market at that moment! It’s just like when you are driving and the lane you are in seems to be moving very slowly. You then decide to switch lane, but only to see the car behind you on the previous lane zoom pass and way ahead of you. You start scolding yourself why you ever switch lane in the first place! It happens, and I’ll guaranteed that it will happen again and again, as long as you are in the market (or as long as you are driving!). I don’t have any strategy that can avoid this, but what I can say is that if you do not cut loss because of this reason, you are going to lose more money than you make in the long run. This I can bet my entire fortune on it.
3. The price will rise in the future. I just need to hold it until then
Sure, it probably will, and I’m not going to argue with you about this. The next question I’m going to ask is, “For how long?” 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you leave your money inside the market for that long period, then you are not a trader. If you are not a trader, you shouldn’t be having this problem in the first place! One of the most important thing to have for a trader is cash, and cash flow is the essence of survival. If all your money is “stuck” in the market, then where are you going to find money to trade? You will miss all the profitable trades and that’s what we call opportunity costs.
4. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose money
Then I don’t see why you are worrying about falling stock prices. It shouldn’t affect you. Who cares if the share price continue to fall. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose. Let us be honest with ourselves here. Can you really not care about falling prices? You know in your heart that you lose money if the price continue to fall. it’s just that you do not want to face the problem, and the fact that problems don’t go away if you do not do anything about it. Yes, there maybe times when the price rises again and you make a profit, but do you really make money this way? I don’t think so.
Cutting losses is part and parcel of being a trader. It’s also the most difficult part of being a trader. If any of the above are your excuses for not cutting loss, then please stop them and really do it. If you still can’t bring yourself to cut loss, then don’t be a trader. Find some good companies and invest in them. Like what I said, cutting loss is really hard work. Not many people can do it, but you can if you really work on it.
Anybody who trades understand the concept of cutting loss, but not everyone can do it. Why is it so difficult to cut loss? It took me almost 3 years to made myself put that into action. It’s real hard work to fight against my own emotions. Being a stock broker for the last 3 years, I came to realized that if you can’t bring yourself to cut loss, you will not be in this game for long. So what are some of the reasons (or excuses) that traders give themselves for not cutting loss?
1. I can’t reconciled myself to do it
Imagine that you have monitor this stock for the past few days, and after you finally decide to buy, the stock price suddenly fall to your cut loss within 5 minutes after buying. How would you feel? Think most people will start screaming at themselves, “How can this happen to me?”, “Why me?” You will start to hate the market for doing this to you. You just can’t bring yourself to cut loss at this instant. Just 5 minutes into the game and I lose money!! How to accept this? Arrgh…. Well, you better be. There’s a well known saying among traders, “Your first loss is your best loss”. If you don’t cut now, you will probably end up incurring more losses.
2. The stock price will rise once I cut loss
Funny right? It seems that the market knows what you are buying and wants to make a fool of you. You don’t sell, it keeps on falling. Once you sell, the price starts to rise almost immediately. How you hate the market at that moment! It’s just like when you are driving and the lane you are in seems to be moving very slowly. You then decide to switch lane, but only to see the car behind you on the previous lane zoom pass and way ahead of you. You start scolding yourself why you ever switch lane in the first place! It happens, and I’ll guaranteed that it will happen again and again, as long as you are in the market (or as long as you are driving!). I don’t have any strategy that can avoid this, but what I can say is that if you do not cut loss because of this reason, you are going to lose more money than you make in the long run. This I can bet my entire fortune on it.
3. The price will rise in the future. I just need to hold it until then
Sure, it probably will, and I’m not going to argue with you about this. The next question I’m going to ask is, “For how long?” 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you leave your money inside the market for that long period, then you are not a trader. If you are not a trader, you shouldn’t be having this problem in the first place! One of the most important thing to have for a trader is cash, and cash flow is the essence of survival. If all your money is “stuck” in the market, then where are you going to find money to trade? You will miss all the profitable trades and that’s what we call opportunity costs.
4. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose money
Then I don’t see why you are worrying about falling stock prices. It shouldn’t affect you. Who cares if the share price continue to fall. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose. Let us be honest with ourselves here. Can you really not care about falling prices? You know in your heart that you lose money if the price continue to fall. it’s just that you do not want to face the problem, and the fact that problems don’t go away if you do not do anything about it. Yes, there maybe times when the price rises again and you make a profit, but do you really make money this way? I don’t think so.
Cutting losses is part and parcel of being a trader. It’s also the most difficult part of being a trader. If any of the above are your excuses for not cutting loss, then please stop them and really do it. If you still can’t bring yourself to cut loss, then don’t be a trader. Find some good companies and invest in them. Like what I said, cutting loss is really hard work. Not many people can do it, but you can if you really work on it.
Monday 24 October 2011
Sunday 16 October 2011
投資致勝首要條件 Stay in the game
蘋果教主喬布斯，離職養病，惜終不敵病魔，終年五十有六。七十年代起家，先創辦蘋果電腦（AAPL），中途被逐蒙難，轉搞彼思動畫（PIXAR），一樣有聲有色。喜獲迪士尼（DIS）收購，續變身迪士尼大股東。另一檔生意NeXT，又被蘋果收購，最終回巢效力。重掌帥印後，將公司起死回生，比之前更加成功。蘋果最強的i字頭系列，都在這「中興」年代推出，產品廣受歡迎。據估計，喬布斯起碼顛覆了全球六大產業：個人電腦、手機、音樂、動畫、電子書、平板電腦。奮鬥三十餘年，已有力翻天覆地，如若再幹十年，會是何等景象？可惜，歷史沒有如果，傳奇不幸作結。
壽命限制事業成就
人的壽命，往往限制事業上的成就。當然，能投入工作的年份，才有意義。所以具有健康的身心，更形重要。對投資者而言，只要一息尚存，仍有建功立業機會，故此要有所成，首要身壯力健，二要保存財政實力，將留在市場的時間，延至最長。股神巴菲特，之所以能夠封神，一項重要因素，就是夠長壽。其首次登上世界首富寶座，是二○○八年，當時已屆七十八歲高齡。如股神像喬氏一般，不敵天數大限，只活到五十餘歲，即八十年代中，則其時連名震天下的傑作：可口可樂（KO），都尚未買入，總結成績，自然大打折扣。炒神索羅斯，更要到四十歲，才與羅傑斯開檔，首次管理基金。到擊潰英鎊一役，行年六十有二，就嚟有生果金攞。
留於市場時間，愈長愈着數，有幾個原因：首先是複利的威力。愛因斯坦謂：「複利乃宇宙間最強力量，是世界第八大奇迹。」年賺一成半，五年翻一番，純粹中學數，完全沒難度。又，股神曰：「時間為好公司之友，壞公司之敵。」當持有的股份，長年累月賺取利潤、派發股息，多年後回望，會在不覺間漸有所成。
投資技巧經驗累積
其次是知識、經驗，會隨時間累積。投資就如學英文，一開始從頭學起，字母、詞匯、句式、文法，最後才是作文。最初字母都未背完，出去同人鬥寫，自然瓜多過菜。多數人沒度過最初階段，但存活夠久，經歷漸長，開始識寫一段仔，雖然高手仍然眾多，但由於開始拋離入門新手，死亡率會逐漸下降，技巧亦漸進。在投資上，到了某一階段，譬如經過前兩年的海嘯，又或是近一年的波動，仍能力保不失，或許證明已找到生存之道。
而投資要有大成，也講點際遇，像股神亦要碰上八七股災，可口可樂回落，才有機會買入。下一次機會，何時降臨，無人能知，唯一可以肯定，待在市場愈久，碰上的機會愈多。同時，因為遇到機會的時間未明，時常保留一定的購買力，也相當重要。
金錢遊戲，人之所需，難以告終。喬布斯嘗勉勵後進謂：Stay hungry. Stay foolish.誠哉斯言。投資投機，欲更進一步，則宜加上：Stay in the game.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 / 輯錄自 424期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】
Publish date:11/10/11
壽命限制事業成就
人的壽命，往往限制事業上的成就。當然，能投入工作的年份，才有意義。所以具有健康的身心，更形重要。對投資者而言，只要一息尚存，仍有建功立業機會，故此要有所成，首要身壯力健，二要保存財政實力，將留在市場的時間，延至最長。股神巴菲特，之所以能夠封神，一項重要因素，就是夠長壽。其首次登上世界首富寶座，是二○○八年，當時已屆七十八歲高齡。如股神像喬氏一般，不敵天數大限，只活到五十餘歲，即八十年代中，則其時連名震天下的傑作：可口可樂（KO），都尚未買入，總結成績，自然大打折扣。炒神索羅斯，更要到四十歲，才與羅傑斯開檔，首次管理基金。到擊潰英鎊一役，行年六十有二，就嚟有生果金攞。
留於市場時間，愈長愈着數，有幾個原因：首先是複利的威力。愛因斯坦謂：「複利乃宇宙間最強力量，是世界第八大奇迹。」年賺一成半，五年翻一番，純粹中學數，完全沒難度。又，股神曰：「時間為好公司之友，壞公司之敵。」當持有的股份，長年累月賺取利潤、派發股息，多年後回望，會在不覺間漸有所成。
投資技巧經驗累積
其次是知識、經驗，會隨時間累積。投資就如學英文，一開始從頭學起，字母、詞匯、句式、文法，最後才是作文。最初字母都未背完，出去同人鬥寫，自然瓜多過菜。多數人沒度過最初階段，但存活夠久，經歷漸長，開始識寫一段仔，雖然高手仍然眾多，但由於開始拋離入門新手，死亡率會逐漸下降，技巧亦漸進。在投資上，到了某一階段，譬如經過前兩年的海嘯，又或是近一年的波動，仍能力保不失，或許證明已找到生存之道。
而投資要有大成，也講點際遇，像股神亦要碰上八七股災，可口可樂回落，才有機會買入。下一次機會，何時降臨，無人能知，唯一可以肯定，待在市場愈久，碰上的機會愈多。同時，因為遇到機會的時間未明，時常保留一定的購買力，也相當重要。
金錢遊戲，人之所需，難以告終。喬布斯嘗勉勵後進謂：Stay hungry. Stay foolish.誠哉斯言。投資投機，欲更進一步，則宜加上：Stay in the game.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 / 輯錄自 424期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】
Publish date:11/10/11
Friday 14 October 2011
市场意识 14/10/2011
市场大力反弹，指数回升10-20%之间。HSI恒指今天回退似有惊弓之鸟的感觉。STI海指照起，意大利指数重夺16000，德国 Dax 正在追赶回6000 关口。前途一片光明，就算有人不看好，会再探底，资金会在等候买入。底部已成过去。是是非非，机会有多少人能把握。
Wednesday 12 October 2011
Value Scouting To Financial Freedom
07 October 2011
Value Scouting To Financial Freedom
By Shares Investment
Volatility characterises the global financial markets these days. Erratic swings are becoming norms and appalling for most. Risks abound, so are opportunities. In our newly introduced “Coffee Break Q&A”, we are pleased to have Cayden Chang Kheng Mong, the Director and Founder of Mind Kinesis Management International LLP (MK), sharing his perspective on current market situation and giving a glimpse into the copyrighted Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) that has accompanied his walk to financial freedom. Below is the extract of our Q&A with Cayden who also co-authored “Do You Have What It Takes To Be BOSS?”.
SI: What is your view on the current market and what should investors do? How do you view the market going forward?
MK: I am predominantly negative about the current market but it is a great opportunity for value investors who want to buy good companies at discounted price provided they know what to buy and when to buy. Share price fluctuates like the weather, but the short-term fluctuation has nothing to do with the performance of the company, so why should we be predicting where’s the market going? Stay away from prediction, focus on fundamentals.
SI: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is one of the programmes offered by Mind Kinesis. What exactly is it all about? Who is it for? How does it work?
MK: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is a training programme that guides anyone, with absolutely no prior investing experience needed, to invest in undervalued companies with good underlying fundamentals.
Our Value Investing Programme is the first in Singapore to be recommended by Mary Buffett, the internationally acclaimed speaker and best-selling author of “Buffettology” (USA Today, Business Week and New York Times), “The Tao of Warren Buffett” (Business Week and The Wall Street Journal), “Warren Buffett’s Management Secrets” and “Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements”.
In a nutshell, V.I.P. provides a set of proven methodologies that are modeled after those used by the world’s richest stock investor, Warren Buffett, to help investors to know where to find good businesses; when to buy the good businesses by identifying the company’s intrinsic value or target price; and when to sell the good businesses. Ultimately, it is to help in the generation of passive income namely capital appreciation and dividends.
Our approach to value investing has an additional icing on the cake. We leverage on the power of Options which we believe enhances the return-on-investment (ROI).
The traditional buying and selling of options to gain returns are pure speculative. Under the V.I.P., we only sell Options with no intention of buying back. Such selling greatly reduces risks as we are not holding on to any options. The selling of these Options, meanwhile, generates a regular and passive income. Specifically, this comes under our Value Investing Options Strategy™ (VIOs™) which only requires an average of 15 minutes a month, and it does not require monitoring of charts nor using any software. To reinforce learning experience, we hold free monthly gatherings for our graduates where we generate cash “Live” during the US market trading hours. To know more, you could visit www.investment-in-stocks.com and www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy for regular Free Investment Workshops.
SI: What is the historical track record and key performance indicators (KPIs) used in assessing the effectiveness of V.I.P.?
MK: For value investing, we have a good track record of about ten years with a team of very qualified Master Trainers. Our team now consists of three investors, including myself, who became financially free via value investing. They are Sean Seah (Creator & Master Trainer of Value Investing Options Strategy) and Liu Feng (Master Trainer of Value Investing). Both have a track record of making an average annualised return of more than 25% investing in stocks in the US and Singapore. We benchmark the effectiveness of V.I.P. using two KPIs namely ROI of 20% or more for every of our graduates as well as the use of not more than an average of 15 minutes per month.
SI: You mentioned about being “financially free”, what does it mean? And how could investors benefit from the V.I.P. amid current market volatility?
MK: A person is financially free when his/her passive income exceeds his/her total expenses. Even for value investors, we love volatility. The greater the volatilities, the better so that we could pick up good companies at undervalued prices. For example, on 8 August 2011, most of the share prices dropped because of the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating on the US to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. This creates buying opportunity. If we buy at a discount of let’s say 20% from our target price, it means that we are increasing our profit margin by 20%. Options premium also increases with volatility which translates into a higher profit when selling Options. I love one of Warren Buffett’s saying – “Mr Market is there to serve you and not to instruct you”.
SI: With so much packed into the V.I.P., what is the cost and duration like? Would there be any recourse if the V.I.P. proved to be of limited or no applicable use to investors who have gone for the program?
MK: What is the cost? We will not tell you until we have shared with you how valuable our training can be. It’s like the stock market – never look at the stock price until you know how much the company is worth. The duration is 4 full days with a life-time of revision and a life-time of monthly ‘Live’ investment sessions and gatherings. We also have an online support group, where we answer any queries that our graduates might have. As for the recourse, it has never happened in the past, and we will ensure that it will never happen in the future because it is our duties to ensure that all of our trainees go through a vigorous process of training and mentoring. On this note, if the trainee wishes to revise what they have learnt previously, we are more than happy that he/she comes back for the training.
SI: Last but not least, what is the developmental roadmap for V.I.P.?
MK: Our goal remains to help every of our graduates becoming financially free by using only 15 minutes a month, and we are always looking to improvising our programmes. Currently, we are registering the trademarks of our proprietary Value Investing Funnel (VIA Funnel)™ as well as Value Investing Options Strategy (VIOs)™. To top it off, we will be hosting a mega event next year. Do keep a look out at www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:07/10/11
Value Scouting To Financial Freedom
By Shares Investment
Volatility characterises the global financial markets these days. Erratic swings are becoming norms and appalling for most. Risks abound, so are opportunities. In our newly introduced “Coffee Break Q&A”, we are pleased to have Cayden Chang Kheng Mong, the Director and Founder of Mind Kinesis Management International LLP (MK), sharing his perspective on current market situation and giving a glimpse into the copyrighted Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) that has accompanied his walk to financial freedom. Below is the extract of our Q&A with Cayden who also co-authored “Do You Have What It Takes To Be BOSS?”.
SI: What is your view on the current market and what should investors do? How do you view the market going forward?
MK: I am predominantly negative about the current market but it is a great opportunity for value investors who want to buy good companies at discounted price provided they know what to buy and when to buy. Share price fluctuates like the weather, but the short-term fluctuation has nothing to do with the performance of the company, so why should we be predicting where’s the market going? Stay away from prediction, focus on fundamentals.
SI: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is one of the programmes offered by Mind Kinesis. What exactly is it all about? Who is it for? How does it work?
MK: Value Investing Programme (V.I.P.) is a training programme that guides anyone, with absolutely no prior investing experience needed, to invest in undervalued companies with good underlying fundamentals.
Our Value Investing Programme is the first in Singapore to be recommended by Mary Buffett, the internationally acclaimed speaker and best-selling author of “Buffettology” (USA Today, Business Week and New York Times), “The Tao of Warren Buffett” (Business Week and The Wall Street Journal), “Warren Buffett’s Management Secrets” and “Warren Buffett and the Interpretation of Financial Statements”.
In a nutshell, V.I.P. provides a set of proven methodologies that are modeled after those used by the world’s richest stock investor, Warren Buffett, to help investors to know where to find good businesses; when to buy the good businesses by identifying the company’s intrinsic value or target price; and when to sell the good businesses. Ultimately, it is to help in the generation of passive income namely capital appreciation and dividends.
Our approach to value investing has an additional icing on the cake. We leverage on the power of Options which we believe enhances the return-on-investment (ROI).
The traditional buying and selling of options to gain returns are pure speculative. Under the V.I.P., we only sell Options with no intention of buying back. Such selling greatly reduces risks as we are not holding on to any options. The selling of these Options, meanwhile, generates a regular and passive income. Specifically, this comes under our Value Investing Options Strategy™ (VIOs™) which only requires an average of 15 minutes a month, and it does not require monitoring of charts nor using any software. To reinforce learning experience, we hold free monthly gatherings for our graduates where we generate cash “Live” during the US market trading hours. To know more, you could visit www.investment-in-stocks.com and www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy for regular Free Investment Workshops.
SI: What is the historical track record and key performance indicators (KPIs) used in assessing the effectiveness of V.I.P.?
MK: For value investing, we have a good track record of about ten years with a team of very qualified Master Trainers. Our team now consists of three investors, including myself, who became financially free via value investing. They are Sean Seah (Creator & Master Trainer of Value Investing Options Strategy) and Liu Feng (Master Trainer of Value Investing). Both have a track record of making an average annualised return of more than 25% investing in stocks in the US and Singapore. We benchmark the effectiveness of V.I.P. using two KPIs namely ROI of 20% or more for every of our graduates as well as the use of not more than an average of 15 minutes per month.
SI: You mentioned about being “financially free”, what does it mean? And how could investors benefit from the V.I.P. amid current market volatility?
MK: A person is financially free when his/her passive income exceeds his/her total expenses. Even for value investors, we love volatility. The greater the volatilities, the better so that we could pick up good companies at undervalued prices. For example, on 8 August 2011, most of the share prices dropped because of the Standard & Poor’s downgrade of the long-term sovereign credit rating on the US to ‘AA+’ from ‘AAA’. This creates buying opportunity. If we buy at a discount of let’s say 20% from our target price, it means that we are increasing our profit margin by 20%. Options premium also increases with volatility which translates into a higher profit when selling Options. I love one of Warren Buffett’s saying – “Mr Market is there to serve you and not to instruct you”.
SI: With so much packed into the V.I.P., what is the cost and duration like? Would there be any recourse if the V.I.P. proved to be of limited or no applicable use to investors who have gone for the program?
MK: What is the cost? We will not tell you until we have shared with you how valuable our training can be. It’s like the stock market – never look at the stock price until you know how much the company is worth. The duration is 4 full days with a life-time of revision and a life-time of monthly ‘Live’ investment sessions and gatherings. We also have an online support group, where we answer any queries that our graduates might have. As for the recourse, it has never happened in the past, and we will ensure that it will never happen in the future because it is our duties to ensure that all of our trainees go through a vigorous process of training and mentoring. On this note, if the trainee wishes to revise what they have learnt previously, we are more than happy that he/she comes back for the training.
SI: Last but not least, what is the developmental roadmap for V.I.P.?
MK: Our goal remains to help every of our graduates becoming financially free by using only 15 minutes a month, and we are always looking to improvising our programmes. Currently, we are registering the trademarks of our proprietary Value Investing Funnel (VIA Funnel)™ as well as Value Investing Options Strategy (VIOs)™. To top it off, we will be hosting a mega event next year. Do keep a look out at www.facebook.com/valueinvestingacademy.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date:07/10/11
Thursday 6 October 2011
Personal Market View - Stock Screen for short term
Stock Screen for short term
by ckchoy
recent strong and good speculation stock ( long ) - Noble. Can bet below 1.30
second good - NOL ( Phillip upgraded )
Capitaland show sign of weakness compared to previous days and weeks before.
Cosco stagnant.
by ckchoy
recent strong and good speculation stock ( long ) - Noble. Can bet below 1.30
second good - NOL ( Phillip upgraded )
Capitaland show sign of weakness compared to previous days and weeks before.
Cosco stagnant.
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