二○○八年十月，滿街的股評人都在說Cash is King，最近，Cash is King的聲音又再響起，四處可聽到。
實際上，許多人對Cash is King的真正意義一知半解，以為死抱着現金不放就是Cash is King，這是錯誤的。我認為，真正懂得運用Cash is King概念的投資者，是當股市跌至面目全非、股價超值低賤時，自己手上有相當多的現金可以買股，這才是Cash is King概念的最佳應用者，Cash is King絕對不是在股價低賤時將手上的超值股、優質股以極低賤的價格拋售，然後持有大量現金不敢做任何事。這種人，往往因為在股價低賤時沽售所有的股票，就算沽售後股價再跌，他們也絕對沒有膽量再入市買，他們只會高唱Cash is King，並慶幸自己能在股價較高一點的水平賣掉。
絕非股價低殘沽貨
除非銀行的利率優厚，持有現金可以收利息，否則，像目前這種利率水平，Cash is King只會讓自己的現金被通貨膨脹吃掉。在這種情況之下，Cash哪裏是King？這種人往往會高唱Cash is King好一段時間，往往得等到股市再次出現狂熱時，他們才會解除恐懼感，並從恐懼感轉變為貪婪，覺得錢存在銀行沒有利息，不如趁股市狂熱入市賺快錢。
股市裏最多的就是這種人，一次又一次的低賣高買，一次教訓、兩次教訓都學不到，理由就是他們只會在恐懼時想起Cash is King。
真正成功的Cash is King概念執行者，他們在股市跌至他們認為是超值的時候就入市，而且是大舉而入，為甚麼他們在股價低賤時有大量的現金呢？理由就是股市在狂熱時，他們不狂熱，絕不高追，並開始不斷地累積資金，持有現金不動，不會為股市的亢奮而亢奮，他們持有大量的現金耐心的等，等到滿街的股評人都在唱Cash is King時，他們的確手上有大量的現金來成為King。
入股比亞迪 仍是贏家
看看股神巴菲特，最近他有能力一擲五十億美元買美國銀行股票，這就是Cash is King，這說明他在之前的確持有非常大量的現金，等待他認為股價超值時出擊，二○○八年九月開始，他也是如此做。今日，不少人譏笑巴菲特買比亞迪，但是，這些人不知道，巴菲特是在甚麼時候入股比亞迪，當時入股價有多高，與今日的股價比較，巴菲特仍然是贏家。巴菲特從來沒有成功的撈底，也就是說他入市後股價往往再下跌，但這不重要，他看的是長遠的前景，只要購買時股價是超值的價格，耐心地持有，一定會柳暗花明又一村。
輯錄自 418期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date:30/08/11
Tuesday 30 August 2011
Sunday 28 August 2011
難為牛熊定分界
目前股市是牛市？還是熊市？
市場上至少有三種說法，第一種說法是牛市已死，熊市剛剛開始；第二種說法是牛市未死，目前的調整只是牛市中的大調整；第三種說法是過去兩年多的升市根本就不是牛市，牛市從未出現過，過去兩年的升市只是熊市的反彈。
我認為牛市、熊市之爭根本是無聊的行為。
何謂牛市？何謂熊市？如何下定義？
牛市熊市根本沒有甚麼科學化的定義。
牛熊定義眾多
牛市熊市之稱根本是華爾街一種流行語罷了，有好幾個不同的定義。
有人對牛市的定義是當股市由低位往上升，能衝破上一次歷史高位，即為牛市。若以此為定義，牛市的來臨是不可能預先知道，只能在股市（一般以主要的指數為準）升破歷史新高才能確定。若以此為定義，過去二十年，日本就一直是處於熊市，長達二十多年的熊市。
也有人較技術性地為牛熊市下定義，即主要指數跌破二百五十天移動平均線稱為熊市，升上二百五十天移動平均線稱為牛市。因此，也有人將二百五十天移動平均線視為牛熊分界線。不過，這個定義不可靠，因為指數可以在今日跌破二百五十天移動平均數，也可以在明日升上二百五十天移動平均數。於是，又有人說，要等到五十天移動平均數跌破二百五十天移動平均數才是牛市結束，熊市開始的確認；反之，五十天移動平均數升上二百五十天移動平均數就確認新牛市的開始。
再看看一百多年前，華爾街如何對牛市熊市下定義：一百多年前，牛市熊市之稱到底從何而來已無法考據。不過，創辦《華爾街日報》及創造道瓊斯指數的道氏則在他的《華爾街日報》中提過牛市熊市這個名詞多次。後來，有人將道氏的評論整理成一套所謂的道氏理論，道氏理論成了今日想學股市技術分析的人必定要學的理論。
可是，道氏理論並不是道氏親筆寫成的一套完整理論，正如今日我們可以在書店裏見到數十種，甚至更多的有關今日股神畢菲特的投資理論，這些所謂的畢菲特理論全是他人的作品。當年，道氏在他的文章中提到牛市熊市這個名稱多次，他形容牛市是股市出現長達一年至數年的連續反覆上升，熊市則相反。不過，道氏也說牛市分三期，熊市僅二期，這是不是說牛市期間比熊市長？
賺錢就是好市
既然牛市、熊市有這麼多種不同的定義，辯論目前是牛市還是熊市並沒有多大的意義，還是套句鄧小平的黑貓白貓論更有意思，即不論是牛市熊市，能賺到錢就是好市。今日股市衍生工具繁多，不論是升市跌市，都有人能賺到很多錢，也有人會虧光。記着，股市是一個很熱的廚房，只有耐得了熱的人才適合進入。目前全球股市極不穩定，沽空撈底的風險一樣大，祝大家好運！
輯錄自 416期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】
市場上至少有三種說法，第一種說法是牛市已死，熊市剛剛開始；第二種說法是牛市未死，目前的調整只是牛市中的大調整；第三種說法是過去兩年多的升市根本就不是牛市，牛市從未出現過，過去兩年的升市只是熊市的反彈。
我認為牛市、熊市之爭根本是無聊的行為。
何謂牛市？何謂熊市？如何下定義？
牛市熊市根本沒有甚麼科學化的定義。
牛熊定義眾多
牛市熊市之稱根本是華爾街一種流行語罷了，有好幾個不同的定義。
有人對牛市的定義是當股市由低位往上升，能衝破上一次歷史高位，即為牛市。若以此為定義，牛市的來臨是不可能預先知道，只能在股市（一般以主要的指數為準）升破歷史新高才能確定。若以此為定義，過去二十年，日本就一直是處於熊市，長達二十多年的熊市。
也有人較技術性地為牛熊市下定義，即主要指數跌破二百五十天移動平均線稱為熊市，升上二百五十天移動平均線稱為牛市。因此，也有人將二百五十天移動平均線視為牛熊分界線。不過，這個定義不可靠，因為指數可以在今日跌破二百五十天移動平均數，也可以在明日升上二百五十天移動平均數。於是，又有人說，要等到五十天移動平均數跌破二百五十天移動平均數才是牛市結束，熊市開始的確認；反之，五十天移動平均數升上二百五十天移動平均數就確認新牛市的開始。
再看看一百多年前，華爾街如何對牛市熊市下定義：一百多年前，牛市熊市之稱到底從何而來已無法考據。不過，創辦《華爾街日報》及創造道瓊斯指數的道氏則在他的《華爾街日報》中提過牛市熊市這個名詞多次。後來，有人將道氏的評論整理成一套所謂的道氏理論，道氏理論成了今日想學股市技術分析的人必定要學的理論。
可是，道氏理論並不是道氏親筆寫成的一套完整理論，正如今日我們可以在書店裏見到數十種，甚至更多的有關今日股神畢菲特的投資理論，這些所謂的畢菲特理論全是他人的作品。當年，道氏在他的文章中提到牛市熊市這個名稱多次，他形容牛市是股市出現長達一年至數年的連續反覆上升，熊市則相反。不過，道氏也說牛市分三期，熊市僅二期，這是不是說牛市期間比熊市長？
賺錢就是好市
既然牛市、熊市有這麼多種不同的定義，辯論目前是牛市還是熊市並沒有多大的意義，還是套句鄧小平的黑貓白貓論更有意思，即不論是牛市熊市，能賺到錢就是好市。今日股市衍生工具繁多，不論是升市跌市，都有人能賺到很多錢，也有人會虧光。記着，股市是一個很熱的廚房，只有耐得了熱的人才適合進入。目前全球股市極不穩定，沽空撈底的風險一樣大，祝大家好運！
輯錄自 416期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】
Friday 19 August 2011
励志电影Facing the Giants（永不放弃）
这个短片摘自经典励志电影《Facing the Giants》中文名叫《面对巨人》或《永不放弃》，是一部值得珍藏的励志佳作。
短片告诉我们
1、一滴水要是容入了大海，很难找到自我，人也是一样，茫茫人海中，如果你只是一个平平凡凡的人，别人很难注意你，甚至是嘲笑你。如果你凭自己坚强的意志力，挑战自我，超越了极限，别人自然会关注你，而且是从内心的佩服你，就像布洛克一样，这样你就成功了。
2、天生我材必有用，一个人能力的大小不完全是由成功的大小来决定的，取决于的是你发挥能力，挖掘潜力过程中坚持不懈，永不放弃的精神，当然前提是你要自信，要去发现你的潜能，要尽全力地去完成就像布洛克一样。
3、要想别人依赖你，必须自己相信自己，竭力以赴，最后到达终点。
4、路慢慢其修远兮，吾将上下而求索，终点有多远，我们不管，我们只要竭尽全力，加油，别放弃，继续，就这样，很好……如果你做到了，终点也就不远了！
5、没有最好，只有更好
Thursday 18 August 2011
名家观点:美债危机为何殃及亚洲?
名家观点:美债危机为何殃及亚洲？
财经 评论 2011-08-17 17:08
8月初，亚洲各地股市一路狂泻，这让亚洲投资者产生了一种似曾相识的感觉。
亚洲股市动荡的原因，在于最近发生的一系列事件（欧洲主权债务危机、美国旷日持久的预算谈判、以及随后美国信贷评级遭到调降等）导致投资者忧心忡忡。仅8月的第一周，亚洲股市的市值便跌去十分之一。
要美戒债瘾
在此之前，亚洲市场和投资者就曾遭受过并非源自亚洲的全球金融危机的严重冲击。这次的情形与那次极其相似。由此看来，当前这场危机可能再次削弱亚洲投资者的信心。
在标准普尔取消美国的最高信贷评级后，中国第一时间通过官方通讯社新华社发表声明，要求美国勒紧裤腰带、戒掉“债瘾”。
中国是美国国债最大的外国持有者。据报道，在中国的外汇储备中，美国国债占到1.3兆美元。其它国家的反应就没那么尖锐了；韩国政府就在召集高级官员举行紧急会议之后，重申了对美国国债的信心。
美国的外债约半数为亚洲国家持有。除了各国央行和主权财富基金，其它机构也在十分密切地关注着事态的发展，尽管它们的资产构成或投资准则不太可能因美国信用等级被调降而改变。
一段时间以来，亚洲主权财富基金不断下调发达经济体政府债务在自己投资组合中所占的比重。
基金管理公司担心，随着各机构开始顾及市场环境以及有所加剧的不确定性和波动性，它们外包资产管理的计划可能会被推迟。
散户最紧张
散户投资者是最紧张的，这一点可以通过散户十分活跃的台湾、韩国、中国内地和香港股市应声下跌判断出来。
在台湾，随着投资者纷纷退出股市，担保维持率出现下降，投资者都在等待政府稳定基金进入股市的信号。
韩国的情况也一样。尽管与其它地区股市相比，亚洲股市7月份的表现总体上要好一些，但由于投资者突然意识到美国很可能出现双底衰退，再加上美国主权债务引发的担忧，投资者的信心有所削弱。
自去年以来，中国散户投资者的信心就一直在谷底波动。在中国，异常火爆的房地产市场向来是许多投资者的主要投资重心，零售银行也不太热衷于动用存款来支持投资。据《上海日报》报道，去年中国基金资产总额缩水了9%以上。
今年新成立的基金一直在艰难地进行筹资，因为在中国，作为共同基金主要发行渠道的零售银行，并不太重视销售基金，而是更在意维持贷存比。这就使本已拥挤不堪的发行渠道竞争更加激烈，从而限制了新基金发行的范围和规模。
今年，基金持续遭遇资金外流，现金水平一直维持在10%左右。同时，中国A股市场的成交量也有所下降。投资者信心的恢复是共同基金需求恢复的前兆。
要提升投资者信心，必须有明确的证据证明：当前中国收紧银根和利率的政策周期已经见顶，通胀也已企稳，同时关于股市吸引力超过房地产市场的预期不断升温，这一系列条件都需要较长时间才会实现。
房产购兴减
从去年到最近这次市场动荡之前，香港共同基金的销售情况要更好一些。
近来股市出现的抛售很可能会在短期内影响投资者信心，各基金管理公司已作好应对大量赎回的准备。香港基金净销售额的中长期发展趋势显示出些许乐观态势。
对于香港投资者而言，房地产的吸引力已经见顶，新楼盘开盘之时引来的购买兴趣正不断减少。
与此同时，接近于零的银行存款利率，又限制了那些可能不愿再冒险持有外币的投资者的投资选择，持有外币一直是香港投资者热门选择之一。
如果中长期利率真的出现上升，我们可以预见到，能分享上涨行情收益同时兼顾资本保值的结构性产品会变得更受欢迎。
随着亚洲各地的投资者开始评估美国信贷降级的较长期影响，各机构很可能会把更多的注意力放在资产币种多样化上。
最近，台湾金融监督管理委员会提议，台湾的保险公司可以将至多10%的海外资产投资于在香港上市、以人民币计价的股票、债券、股票型基金和交易型指数基金（ETF）。
或许，这一迹象进一步表明，投资者的关注重心正逐渐远离美元和美国。
康礼贤 RCM Asia Pacific总执行长-英国《金融时报》
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:17/08/11
财经 评论 2011-08-17 17:08
8月初，亚洲各地股市一路狂泻，这让亚洲投资者产生了一种似曾相识的感觉。
亚洲股市动荡的原因，在于最近发生的一系列事件（欧洲主权债务危机、美国旷日持久的预算谈判、以及随后美国信贷评级遭到调降等）导致投资者忧心忡忡。仅8月的第一周，亚洲股市的市值便跌去十分之一。
要美戒债瘾
在此之前，亚洲市场和投资者就曾遭受过并非源自亚洲的全球金融危机的严重冲击。这次的情形与那次极其相似。由此看来，当前这场危机可能再次削弱亚洲投资者的信心。
在标准普尔取消美国的最高信贷评级后，中国第一时间通过官方通讯社新华社发表声明，要求美国勒紧裤腰带、戒掉“债瘾”。
中国是美国国债最大的外国持有者。据报道，在中国的外汇储备中，美国国债占到1.3兆美元。其它国家的反应就没那么尖锐了；韩国政府就在召集高级官员举行紧急会议之后，重申了对美国国债的信心。
美国的外债约半数为亚洲国家持有。除了各国央行和主权财富基金，其它机构也在十分密切地关注着事态的发展，尽管它们的资产构成或投资准则不太可能因美国信用等级被调降而改变。
一段时间以来，亚洲主权财富基金不断下调发达经济体政府债务在自己投资组合中所占的比重。
基金管理公司担心，随着各机构开始顾及市场环境以及有所加剧的不确定性和波动性，它们外包资产管理的计划可能会被推迟。
散户最紧张
散户投资者是最紧张的，这一点可以通过散户十分活跃的台湾、韩国、中国内地和香港股市应声下跌判断出来。
在台湾，随着投资者纷纷退出股市，担保维持率出现下降，投资者都在等待政府稳定基金进入股市的信号。
韩国的情况也一样。尽管与其它地区股市相比，亚洲股市7月份的表现总体上要好一些，但由于投资者突然意识到美国很可能出现双底衰退，再加上美国主权债务引发的担忧，投资者的信心有所削弱。
自去年以来，中国散户投资者的信心就一直在谷底波动。在中国，异常火爆的房地产市场向来是许多投资者的主要投资重心，零售银行也不太热衷于动用存款来支持投资。据《上海日报》报道，去年中国基金资产总额缩水了9%以上。
今年新成立的基金一直在艰难地进行筹资，因为在中国，作为共同基金主要发行渠道的零售银行，并不太重视销售基金，而是更在意维持贷存比。这就使本已拥挤不堪的发行渠道竞争更加激烈，从而限制了新基金发行的范围和规模。
今年，基金持续遭遇资金外流，现金水平一直维持在10%左右。同时，中国A股市场的成交量也有所下降。投资者信心的恢复是共同基金需求恢复的前兆。
要提升投资者信心，必须有明确的证据证明：当前中国收紧银根和利率的政策周期已经见顶，通胀也已企稳，同时关于股市吸引力超过房地产市场的预期不断升温，这一系列条件都需要较长时间才会实现。
房产购兴减
从去年到最近这次市场动荡之前，香港共同基金的销售情况要更好一些。
近来股市出现的抛售很可能会在短期内影响投资者信心，各基金管理公司已作好应对大量赎回的准备。香港基金净销售额的中长期发展趋势显示出些许乐观态势。
对于香港投资者而言，房地产的吸引力已经见顶，新楼盘开盘之时引来的购买兴趣正不断减少。
与此同时，接近于零的银行存款利率，又限制了那些可能不愿再冒险持有外币的投资者的投资选择，持有外币一直是香港投资者热门选择之一。
如果中长期利率真的出现上升，我们可以预见到，能分享上涨行情收益同时兼顾资本保值的结构性产品会变得更受欢迎。
随着亚洲各地的投资者开始评估美国信贷降级的较长期影响，各机构很可能会把更多的注意力放在资产币种多样化上。
最近，台湾金融监督管理委员会提议，台湾的保险公司可以将至多10%的海外资产投资于在香港上市、以人民币计价的股票、债券、股票型基金和交易型指数基金（ETF）。
或许，这一迹象进一步表明，投资者的关注重心正逐渐远离美元和美国。
康礼贤 RCM Asia Pacific总执行长-英国《金融时报》
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:17/08/11
Tuesday 16 August 2011
Stocks: is it really time to buy?
Business Times - 16 Aug 2011
Hock Lock Siew
Stocks: is it really time to buy?
By R SIVANITHY
STOCK markets may have rebounded in the past two sessions from the heavy beating sustained over the past few weeks but there is still plenty to worry investors. In Europe, for example, the authorities in some countries have resorted to banning short-selling - a move which smacks of panic and one which could well make matters worse (more on this later). In the US, pressure has mounted on the Federal Reserve to embark on more money printing or quantitative easing (a QE3), even though the previous two rounds have not had a lasting effect.
Here, heavy losses amid margin calls and forced selling have dragged the Straits Times Index to a 10 per cent loss for the year so far - something of a disaster among observers grown accustomed to annual double-digit gains.
The first thing to note in all of this is that although the Straits Times Index (STI) appears to have crashed in the wake of debt crises in Europe and the US, at above 2,800 it is still just under 100 per cent above its post-Lehman Brothers low. The picture is similar elsewhere: the S&P 500 at last Friday's close of 1,178 is only 6 per cent down for the year while still 75 per cent up in just over two years; and over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng at yesterday's close of just above 20,000 is still almost 80 per cent above its March 2009 level.
In other words, the 'collapses' of the past few weeks have to be put in their proper perspective; the losses are nowhere as catastrophic as many media reports have made them out to be. Optimists might interpret this as stocks receiving good support because of a rosy economic outlook but, by the same token, it could well be that there is still room for more downside.
For one thing, Europe's debt problems are far from over. The ban on short-selling may appear to help by providing temporary relief but the evidence suggests that such bans will eventually cause more problems. In his paper, Spillover Effects of Counter-cyclical Market Regulation: Evidence from the 2008 Ban on Short Sales, for instance, finance professor Abraham Lioui of EDHEC Business School found that European banning of shorting during the plunges of 2008 did not help ease pressure.
'The ban on short-selling increased the daily volatilities of the markets; the impact of the ban was greater than the impact of the ongoing financial crisis,' said Prof Lioui. (In a separate paper on US efforts to curb short-selling in 2008, EDHEC reached a similar conclusion.)
Another worry is the US, where the economy is much weaker than it was at the outset of recession in December 2007 - jobs, income levels, output and industrial production are worse today than they were back then (the unemployment rate when Lehman went bust was 5 per cent; today, it's 9.1 per cent).
According to The New York Times last week: 'Growth has been so weak that almost no ground has been recouped, even though a recovery technically started in June 2009 . . . making things worse, policymakers used most of the economic tools at their disposal to combat the last recession and have few options available.'
Negative 'feedback loop'
In such a fluid and uncertain environment, it is possible for worry to feed upon worry. Few may have noticed this, but crude oil prices are almost 30 per cent down since April - a clear sign that the market is anticipating an economic slowdown.
US house prices, in the meantime, are still weak and consumer spending is slumping, adding to the negative 'feedback loop' where people hold off spending because they think the economy is weak and the economy weakens because people hold off spending.
Traders should, therefore, be wary of reports that claim the worst to be over or those that urge buying because stocks are 'cheap'.
The prudent thing to do is approach such reports with caution while bearing in mind that preservation of capital is paramount. Stocks may look attractive because they have dropped sharply, but there could still be plenty of downside ahead.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:16/08/11
Hock Lock Siew
Stocks: is it really time to buy?
By R SIVANITHY
STOCK markets may have rebounded in the past two sessions from the heavy beating sustained over the past few weeks but there is still plenty to worry investors. In Europe, for example, the authorities in some countries have resorted to banning short-selling - a move which smacks of panic and one which could well make matters worse (more on this later). In the US, pressure has mounted on the Federal Reserve to embark on more money printing or quantitative easing (a QE3), even though the previous two rounds have not had a lasting effect.
Here, heavy losses amid margin calls and forced selling have dragged the Straits Times Index to a 10 per cent loss for the year so far - something of a disaster among observers grown accustomed to annual double-digit gains.
The first thing to note in all of this is that although the Straits Times Index (STI) appears to have crashed in the wake of debt crises in Europe and the US, at above 2,800 it is still just under 100 per cent above its post-Lehman Brothers low. The picture is similar elsewhere: the S&P 500 at last Friday's close of 1,178 is only 6 per cent down for the year while still 75 per cent up in just over two years; and over in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng at yesterday's close of just above 20,000 is still almost 80 per cent above its March 2009 level.
In other words, the 'collapses' of the past few weeks have to be put in their proper perspective; the losses are nowhere as catastrophic as many media reports have made them out to be. Optimists might interpret this as stocks receiving good support because of a rosy economic outlook but, by the same token, it could well be that there is still room for more downside.
For one thing, Europe's debt problems are far from over. The ban on short-selling may appear to help by providing temporary relief but the evidence suggests that such bans will eventually cause more problems. In his paper, Spillover Effects of Counter-cyclical Market Regulation: Evidence from the 2008 Ban on Short Sales, for instance, finance professor Abraham Lioui of EDHEC Business School found that European banning of shorting during the plunges of 2008 did not help ease pressure.
'The ban on short-selling increased the daily volatilities of the markets; the impact of the ban was greater than the impact of the ongoing financial crisis,' said Prof Lioui. (In a separate paper on US efforts to curb short-selling in 2008, EDHEC reached a similar conclusion.)
Another worry is the US, where the economy is much weaker than it was at the outset of recession in December 2007 - jobs, income levels, output and industrial production are worse today than they were back then (the unemployment rate when Lehman went bust was 5 per cent; today, it's 9.1 per cent).
According to The New York Times last week: 'Growth has been so weak that almost no ground has been recouped, even though a recovery technically started in June 2009 . . . making things worse, policymakers used most of the economic tools at their disposal to combat the last recession and have few options available.'
Negative 'feedback loop'
In such a fluid and uncertain environment, it is possible for worry to feed upon worry. Few may have noticed this, but crude oil prices are almost 30 per cent down since April - a clear sign that the market is anticipating an economic slowdown.
US house prices, in the meantime, are still weak and consumer spending is slumping, adding to the negative 'feedback loop' where people hold off spending because they think the economy is weak and the economy weakens because people hold off spending.
Traders should, therefore, be wary of reports that claim the worst to be over or those that urge buying because stocks are 'cheap'.
The prudent thing to do is approach such reports with caution while bearing in mind that preservation of capital is paramount. Stocks may look attractive because they have dropped sharply, but there could still be plenty of downside ahead.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:16/08/11
Why 2011 won't be a rerun of 2008: Citi
Business Times - 16 Aug 2011
Why 2011 won't be a rerun of 2008: Citi
By KELLY TAY
WHILE Citigroup has acknowledged that 2011 may bear similarities to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, it says it is not expecting a repeat of 2008.
Said Citi in an equity strategy report: 'The global financial crisis was sparked by an acute credit crisis while the ongoing developments are linked to risks of a prolonged period with anaemic growth among developed markets. This time, expectations are lower with the STI (Straits Times Index) already at lower valuations as the rout started.'
Still, with a high chance of a technical recession in the third quarter, Citi has lowered its 2011 Singapore GDP growth forecast from 7 per cent to 5.7 per cent. This follows quickly on the back of a cut in its forecast for US GDP from 2.3 per cent to 1.7 per cent.
'A weaker US will likely weigh on Singapore's manufacturers as well as trade-related services. Sentiment-sensitive sectors could also be hit by reduced confidence from the drastic volatility in global equity markets,' said the report.
Citi's bottom-up STI target is 3,440 - about 20 per cent higher than current levels of around 2,800. Following the global selloff for equities sparked by the downgrade of US sovereign credit, Citi also said that the STI - which has fallen 9.6 per cent in August - was among the worst hit in the region, together with Korea and Taiwan.
'With the expectation of still positive global GDP growth and tight corporate cost controls, the pullback in stock prices may have been too severe,' said the report.
Citi said in the current volatile environment, its preference is for large-cap stocks with low growth expectations into 2012, so as to minimise the risk of earnings disappointments. This is opposed to a fully defensive suite of dividend-centric names, given Citi's expectation of positive GDP growth in 2012.
Its key stock picks include Ascendas Reit and SingTel for their attractive dividend yields, and Wilmar on the sustained turnaround of its oilseeds unit. Among banks, DBS is its top choice, thanks to attractive valuations and a dividend yield nearly double that of Singapore government bond yields.
Genting Singapore has been added in replacement of Keppel, since the latter's possibility of slower orderbook growth in 2012 could present risk. The report highlighted that Genting's valuations are attractive at a 20-plus per cent discount to Macau-centric names, due to Resorts World Sentosa losing some market share to Marina Bay Sands. It also noted that gross gaming revenue in Singapore is still likely to grow 10 per cent in 2012, from an estimated US$5.4 billion in 2011.
Citi also continues to prefer Singapore Reits over developers, given the current uncertain economic environment. 'Despite attractive valuations, continued policy risk implies that it remains difficult to suggest picks within the real estate developer space,' it said.
Instead, Citi's preference is for Reits that are operationally more defensive, including retail Reits such as Mapletree Commercial Trust and Fraser Centrepoint Trust, where passing rental rates are below market ones.
The report noted ongoing risks including weaker consumer spending due to dampened sentiment, a prolonged soft patch in electronics exports, as well as margin erosion from a strong Sing dollar.
Despite a 15 per cent fall in headline commodity prices since the recent peak in April, Citi said that it 'remains concerned on risks from inflation', with expectations that this year's consumer price index will average 4-5 per cent year on year, even as a record strong Sing dollar helps to dampen imported inflation.
In a separate Pan Asia equity strategy report, Citi said investors will see total returns of 9.6 per cent per annum, if the Singapore equity market returns to its average price-to-book value ratio in the next three years. If this happens in five years, the annualised total returns would stand at 6.8 per cent.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:16/08/11
Why 2011 won't be a rerun of 2008: Citi
By KELLY TAY
WHILE Citigroup has acknowledged that 2011 may bear similarities to the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, it says it is not expecting a repeat of 2008.
Said Citi in an equity strategy report: 'The global financial crisis was sparked by an acute credit crisis while the ongoing developments are linked to risks of a prolonged period with anaemic growth among developed markets. This time, expectations are lower with the STI (Straits Times Index) already at lower valuations as the rout started.'
Still, with a high chance of a technical recession in the third quarter, Citi has lowered its 2011 Singapore GDP growth forecast from 7 per cent to 5.7 per cent. This follows quickly on the back of a cut in its forecast for US GDP from 2.3 per cent to 1.7 per cent.
'A weaker US will likely weigh on Singapore's manufacturers as well as trade-related services. Sentiment-sensitive sectors could also be hit by reduced confidence from the drastic volatility in global equity markets,' said the report.
Citi's bottom-up STI target is 3,440 - about 20 per cent higher than current levels of around 2,800. Following the global selloff for equities sparked by the downgrade of US sovereign credit, Citi also said that the STI - which has fallen 9.6 per cent in August - was among the worst hit in the region, together with Korea and Taiwan.
'With the expectation of still positive global GDP growth and tight corporate cost controls, the pullback in stock prices may have been too severe,' said the report.
Citi said in the current volatile environment, its preference is for large-cap stocks with low growth expectations into 2012, so as to minimise the risk of earnings disappointments. This is opposed to a fully defensive suite of dividend-centric names, given Citi's expectation of positive GDP growth in 2012.
Its key stock picks include Ascendas Reit and SingTel for their attractive dividend yields, and Wilmar on the sustained turnaround of its oilseeds unit. Among banks, DBS is its top choice, thanks to attractive valuations and a dividend yield nearly double that of Singapore government bond yields.
Genting Singapore has been added in replacement of Keppel, since the latter's possibility of slower orderbook growth in 2012 could present risk. The report highlighted that Genting's valuations are attractive at a 20-plus per cent discount to Macau-centric names, due to Resorts World Sentosa losing some market share to Marina Bay Sands. It also noted that gross gaming revenue in Singapore is still likely to grow 10 per cent in 2012, from an estimated US$5.4 billion in 2011.
Citi also continues to prefer Singapore Reits over developers, given the current uncertain economic environment. 'Despite attractive valuations, continued policy risk implies that it remains difficult to suggest picks within the real estate developer space,' it said.
Instead, Citi's preference is for Reits that are operationally more defensive, including retail Reits such as Mapletree Commercial Trust and Fraser Centrepoint Trust, where passing rental rates are below market ones.
The report noted ongoing risks including weaker consumer spending due to dampened sentiment, a prolonged soft patch in electronics exports, as well as margin erosion from a strong Sing dollar.
Despite a 15 per cent fall in headline commodity prices since the recent peak in April, Citi said that it 'remains concerned on risks from inflation', with expectations that this year's consumer price index will average 4-5 per cent year on year, even as a record strong Sing dollar helps to dampen imported inflation.
In a separate Pan Asia equity strategy report, Citi said investors will see total returns of 9.6 per cent per annum, if the Singapore equity market returns to its average price-to-book value ratio in the next three years. If this happens in five years, the annualised total returns would stand at 6.8 per cent.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:16/08/11
未必双底衰退
未必双底衰退
Created 08/15/2011 - 13:16
欧债危机、美国经济数据不佳、股市大跌等负面消息排山倒海而来，外围刮起凄风苦雨，究竟何时晴何时雨？
在一片不确定声中，即使极精准的晴雨表，也测不出未来的气象动态。
全球是否即将迎来双底衰退？还在舔舐伤口的我们，是否又会回到2008年雷曼兄弟时代？
熊市降临，资金该归何处？
8月5日，评级机构标普将美国国债评级，从AAA调低至AA+，这项消息如对金融市场投下一颗炸弹，引起市场大动荡，全球股市集体跳水，引发抛售恐慌。
促成全球股市恐慌的最主要因素，就是“二次衰退”的阴影，在一片哀鸿之中，2年半前的恐慌似乎再次笼罩。
2008年全球股灾犹在眼前，如今各国股市再遭股灾，有人怪罪标普下调评级的做法，有人斥骂美国应承受后果，也有人说，此次股灾的源头，其实是欧洲。
大家互相指责，指数也一再下跌，可以肯定的是，此轮股灾正说明了信心出现大动摇，大家互相牵引、互相拖累，投资者对未来不乐观，美国及欧洲悬而未决的问题，已经让投资者失去耐心。混乱之中，不时听到颤抖地声音在发问：“美国，是否即将面对双底衰退？”
根据8月6日刊出的《经济学人》封面文章，标示着美国人（甚至全世界）都担忧的标题：《经济可能再次衰退》。
全球或重陷衰退
文章指出，由于美国债务危机以及新公布的经济数据，美国的经济增长前景非常不乐观，有可能会陷入长期停滞，世界经济也可能受到波及而重新陷入衰退。
“本来就不如预期的经济复苏已经陷入停滞，而这样发展下去很有可能再次陷入衰退。
脆弱的经济本就经不起任何冲击，可美国还在这个时候实行紧缩政策，让情况变得更糟，经济二次衰退的可能性超过了50%。”
美国增长预期下调
高盛最近也再次下调对美国经济增长的预期，称经济衰退“明显有可能”。
高盛经济学家们提出确定步入经济衰退的标准：3个月失业率平均增长0.35%以上，今后半年内就会转为衰退。
大摩亚洲主席罗奇也肯定地表示，全球经济出现二次探底的概率在40%。最近的这一轮全球市场和经济动荡，也在一定程度上印证了他的预判。
虽然美国上周初请失业金人数降至四个月低点，为近来饱受降评风暴和股价挫跌打击的经济提供一线希望，但现实证明，“阶段性疲软”只是美好的愿望。
“欧洲债务危机的闹剧，已蔓延至意大利和西班牙。此时，全球经济的再平衡较以往任何时候都更为迫切，如果没有找出正确的方向，金融市场只会变得更加烦躁不安。”
新兴市场受惠？
虽然《华尔街日报》引述海外分析员称，美国国债评级的下调，最终可能会增强亚洲资产相对于西方资产的吸引力，并促成避险情绪，但此次情况或许有变。
资深基金经理张子敏认为，短期来说，外国基金经理会采取“现金为王”策略，不会马上就转向投资新兴市场。
另外，以2008年雷曼兄弟事件为例，新兴市场深受拖累，并在等待较长的时间后，才看到资金转向。
亚洲经济料软着陆
也有经济学家表示，新兴市场对美国的依赖虽然降低，但全球经济一旦衰退，这些国家的出口活动也将无可避免地减少。
若中国对能源的需求随之降低，将连累其他靠原产品推动经济的周边国家，这个负面循环，绝对不可忽略。
放缓情况延长
在负面阴影笼罩的情况下，本地经济学家也因此将国内生产总值的预测，从原本的5.5%，下调至4.8%。
联昌国际投资研究经济学家李兴裕说：“我们已预料世界经济会在今年次季放缓，惟放缓的讯号以及金融市场冲击扩散后，提高了市场对放缓情况延长的恐惧。”
他认为放缓情况会延续1至2个季度，特别是经济缺乏复苏动力的先进经济体。
“主要亚洲经济体的综合先行指标，也出现稍微流失增长动力的迹象，而且会软着陆。
不过，我们预见这些经济体的实际国内生产总值，会维持正面的增长走势，因2011年第三和第四季，以及2012年，仍存有足以带动经济增长的支撑因素，例如日本地震导致供应链断裂的冲击消退，以及油价走低可以舒缓通胀的压力并提高开销。”
综指目标预测大砍
有鉴于经济衰退的风险正逐渐提升，市场分析员对富时隆综指原先的年底预测转向悲观，甚至大幅削减综指目标。
丰隆投资银行分析员认为，鉴于投资者的避险心态和潜在的全球经济衰退，富时隆综指的1670点年底收关目标，看来已经渐行渐远，且要小心投资者风险胃口缩小的现象。
侨丰投资研究研究主管吴保云表示，美国政府可能需进一步采取缩紧政策来应对庞大债务问题，这可能冲击市场信心，从而提高经济提早出现危机的风险。
破坏技术环境
“这足以造成市场因不安而采取抛售举措，进一步破坏技术环境。
在市场信心仍未有复苏希望之际，我们相信市场很难在近期内重拾近期的高表现。”
因此，吴保云将综指目标，从1710点下修至1466点。
捷运工程唯一利好
丰隆投资研究也在报告指出，由于发达市场的经济不佳，失业人数也高，因此，工业领域将在未来几个月持续走弱；经济转型执行方案的执行速度慢，都会拖累国家的经济表现。
“现在，唯一看到的利好，就是经济转型执行方案下的捷运计划。”
在不利因素笼罩的情况下，丰隆将今年的经济增长预测，从原本的5.5%，下调至4.8%。
另外，虽然大马6月份工业生产指数（IPI）意外上扬，较去年微增1%，成功从上个月的负增长扭转劣势，不过，大马经济前景并未因此转向乐观。
华侨银行经济学家甘地查哈亚说：“我们未看到强劲力量推动指数。经济仍然有望以5.7%增长，不过，下行风险大，全球经济未来几个月的表现，对经济增长非常关键。”
外围继续挟持马股
肯南嘉投资研究主管陈建尧则说：“虽然我们还未调整综指1640点的年底目标，经济增长预测也维持在5.7%，但市场已明显出现进一步大幅滑落的风险，而这些皆提高全球经济和股市严重下跌的风险。”
所以，他表示将密切留意市场接下来的进展，也已准备好随时调整或下修市场和经济预测。
丰隆投资银行分析员也表示，未来的世界经济走向处于非常不稳定状态之际，全球股市溃败之势看来还会延续，加上国内即将进入悠长假期（8月底的开斋节和国庆日），马股市预期将继续被先进国金融市场的波动所“挟持”。
该行分析员表示：“即使目前的国内财报季节被看好将交出增长表现，惟出口导向为主的行业可能会令人失望，而未能带来显著的正面惊喜，但值得庆幸的是，有关行业在股市中所占份额不大。”
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:15/08/11
Created 08/15/2011 - 13:16
欧债危机、美国经济数据不佳、股市大跌等负面消息排山倒海而来，外围刮起凄风苦雨，究竟何时晴何时雨？
在一片不确定声中，即使极精准的晴雨表，也测不出未来的气象动态。
全球是否即将迎来双底衰退？还在舔舐伤口的我们，是否又会回到2008年雷曼兄弟时代？
熊市降临，资金该归何处？
8月5日，评级机构标普将美国国债评级，从AAA调低至AA+，这项消息如对金融市场投下一颗炸弹，引起市场大动荡，全球股市集体跳水，引发抛售恐慌。
促成全球股市恐慌的最主要因素，就是“二次衰退”的阴影，在一片哀鸿之中，2年半前的恐慌似乎再次笼罩。
2008年全球股灾犹在眼前，如今各国股市再遭股灾，有人怪罪标普下调评级的做法，有人斥骂美国应承受后果，也有人说，此次股灾的源头，其实是欧洲。
大家互相指责，指数也一再下跌，可以肯定的是，此轮股灾正说明了信心出现大动摇，大家互相牵引、互相拖累，投资者对未来不乐观，美国及欧洲悬而未决的问题，已经让投资者失去耐心。混乱之中，不时听到颤抖地声音在发问：“美国，是否即将面对双底衰退？”
根据8月6日刊出的《经济学人》封面文章，标示着美国人（甚至全世界）都担忧的标题：《经济可能再次衰退》。
全球或重陷衰退
文章指出，由于美国债务危机以及新公布的经济数据，美国的经济增长前景非常不乐观，有可能会陷入长期停滞，世界经济也可能受到波及而重新陷入衰退。
“本来就不如预期的经济复苏已经陷入停滞，而这样发展下去很有可能再次陷入衰退。
脆弱的经济本就经不起任何冲击，可美国还在这个时候实行紧缩政策，让情况变得更糟，经济二次衰退的可能性超过了50%。”
美国增长预期下调
高盛最近也再次下调对美国经济增长的预期，称经济衰退“明显有可能”。
高盛经济学家们提出确定步入经济衰退的标准：3个月失业率平均增长0.35%以上，今后半年内就会转为衰退。
大摩亚洲主席罗奇也肯定地表示，全球经济出现二次探底的概率在40%。最近的这一轮全球市场和经济动荡，也在一定程度上印证了他的预判。
虽然美国上周初请失业金人数降至四个月低点，为近来饱受降评风暴和股价挫跌打击的经济提供一线希望，但现实证明，“阶段性疲软”只是美好的愿望。
“欧洲债务危机的闹剧，已蔓延至意大利和西班牙。此时，全球经济的再平衡较以往任何时候都更为迫切，如果没有找出正确的方向，金融市场只会变得更加烦躁不安。”
新兴市场受惠？
虽然《华尔街日报》引述海外分析员称，美国国债评级的下调，最终可能会增强亚洲资产相对于西方资产的吸引力，并促成避险情绪，但此次情况或许有变。
资深基金经理张子敏认为，短期来说，外国基金经理会采取“现金为王”策略，不会马上就转向投资新兴市场。
另外，以2008年雷曼兄弟事件为例，新兴市场深受拖累，并在等待较长的时间后，才看到资金转向。
亚洲经济料软着陆
也有经济学家表示，新兴市场对美国的依赖虽然降低，但全球经济一旦衰退，这些国家的出口活动也将无可避免地减少。
若中国对能源的需求随之降低，将连累其他靠原产品推动经济的周边国家，这个负面循环，绝对不可忽略。
放缓情况延长
在负面阴影笼罩的情况下，本地经济学家也因此将国内生产总值的预测，从原本的5.5%，下调至4.8%。
联昌国际投资研究经济学家李兴裕说：“我们已预料世界经济会在今年次季放缓，惟放缓的讯号以及金融市场冲击扩散后，提高了市场对放缓情况延长的恐惧。”
他认为放缓情况会延续1至2个季度，特别是经济缺乏复苏动力的先进经济体。
“主要亚洲经济体的综合先行指标，也出现稍微流失增长动力的迹象，而且会软着陆。
不过，我们预见这些经济体的实际国内生产总值，会维持正面的增长走势，因2011年第三和第四季，以及2012年，仍存有足以带动经济增长的支撑因素，例如日本地震导致供应链断裂的冲击消退，以及油价走低可以舒缓通胀的压力并提高开销。”
综指目标预测大砍
有鉴于经济衰退的风险正逐渐提升，市场分析员对富时隆综指原先的年底预测转向悲观，甚至大幅削减综指目标。
丰隆投资银行分析员认为，鉴于投资者的避险心态和潜在的全球经济衰退，富时隆综指的1670点年底收关目标，看来已经渐行渐远，且要小心投资者风险胃口缩小的现象。
侨丰投资研究研究主管吴保云表示，美国政府可能需进一步采取缩紧政策来应对庞大债务问题，这可能冲击市场信心，从而提高经济提早出现危机的风险。
破坏技术环境
“这足以造成市场因不安而采取抛售举措，进一步破坏技术环境。
在市场信心仍未有复苏希望之际，我们相信市场很难在近期内重拾近期的高表现。”
因此，吴保云将综指目标，从1710点下修至1466点。
捷运工程唯一利好
丰隆投资研究也在报告指出，由于发达市场的经济不佳，失业人数也高，因此，工业领域将在未来几个月持续走弱；经济转型执行方案的执行速度慢，都会拖累国家的经济表现。
“现在，唯一看到的利好，就是经济转型执行方案下的捷运计划。”
在不利因素笼罩的情况下，丰隆将今年的经济增长预测，从原本的5.5%，下调至4.8%。
另外，虽然大马6月份工业生产指数（IPI）意外上扬，较去年微增1%，成功从上个月的负增长扭转劣势，不过，大马经济前景并未因此转向乐观。
华侨银行经济学家甘地查哈亚说：“我们未看到强劲力量推动指数。经济仍然有望以5.7%增长，不过，下行风险大，全球经济未来几个月的表现，对经济增长非常关键。”
外围继续挟持马股
肯南嘉投资研究主管陈建尧则说：“虽然我们还未调整综指1640点的年底目标，经济增长预测也维持在5.7%，但市场已明显出现进一步大幅滑落的风险，而这些皆提高全球经济和股市严重下跌的风险。”
所以，他表示将密切留意市场接下来的进展，也已准备好随时调整或下修市场和经济预测。
丰隆投资银行分析员也表示，未来的世界经济走向处于非常不稳定状态之际，全球股市溃败之势看来还会延续，加上国内即将进入悠长假期（8月底的开斋节和国庆日），马股市预期将继续被先进国金融市场的波动所“挟持”。
该行分析员表示：“即使目前的国内财报季节被看好将交出增长表现，惟出口导向为主的行业可能会令人失望，而未能带来显著的正面惊喜，但值得庆幸的是，有关行业在股市中所占份额不大。”
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date:15/08/11
Wednesday 10 August 2011
Time to bottom fish for stocks?
Time to bottom fish for stocks?
By Adeline Paul Raj
adeline@nstp.com.my
2011/08/10
KUALA LUMPUR: Analysts had mixed views as to whether now is a good time to bottom fish in the stock market as global markets continued their sharp descent.
Major US stock indices plunged by between 5.5 per cent and 6.9 per cent on Monday, their first day of trade after Standard & Poor's unprecedented cut in the US credit rating by one level to AA+, leading most Asian bourses to close sharply lower for the third straight day yesterday.
This saw the local 30-stock benchmark index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite index (FBM KLCI) shedding 1.7 per cent (or 24.85 points) to close at 1,472.14, off an intra-day low of 1,423.47.
The index has lost 4.8 per cent in the last three trading days.
HwangDBS Vickers Research, in a note to clients early yesterday, noted that investors will be more inclined to sell rather than buy equities following Wall Street's extended freefall.
"Given the prevailing jittery market mood, it seems too early to bottom fish at this juncture. Capital preservation will be the priority of most investors for now," it said.
CIMB Research advised investors to bottomfish gradually.
"Share price weakness is an opportunity to bottom-fish, albeit gradually," it said in a report yesterday, pointing out that consolidations of 20 per cent are not uncommon in major bull markets.
CIMB's economics team has kept its estimate of a 30 per cent chance of a double-dip recession happening in the US.
"As long as the stockmarket's travails do not pull down the US economy, which would hammer Asia's exports to the US, there should be a fair chance of decoupling by Asian markets," it said.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee, which would have met late Tuesday in the US, to see if it comes up with new steps to drive economic growth.
Losses in the region yesterday were led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (down 5.7 per cent to 19,330.70), Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Index (down 3.7 per cent to 2,884) and South Korea's Kospi Index (down 3.6 per cent to 1,801.35).
Investors sold-down shares on fears that a potential recession in the US and Europe's debt woes would hamper a global economic recovery.
"Realistically speaking, it will take time for sentiment to pick up again following the latest rounds of global equities meltdown until workable measures from the governments or central bankers of these troubled nations," said Hong Leong Investment Bank.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:10/08/10
By Adeline Paul Raj
adeline@nstp.com.my
2011/08/10
KUALA LUMPUR: Analysts had mixed views as to whether now is a good time to bottom fish in the stock market as global markets continued their sharp descent.
Major US stock indices plunged by between 5.5 per cent and 6.9 per cent on Monday, their first day of trade after Standard & Poor's unprecedented cut in the US credit rating by one level to AA+, leading most Asian bourses to close sharply lower for the third straight day yesterday.
This saw the local 30-stock benchmark index, FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite index (FBM KLCI) shedding 1.7 per cent (or 24.85 points) to close at 1,472.14, off an intra-day low of 1,423.47.
The index has lost 4.8 per cent in the last three trading days.
HwangDBS Vickers Research, in a note to clients early yesterday, noted that investors will be more inclined to sell rather than buy equities following Wall Street's extended freefall.
"Given the prevailing jittery market mood, it seems too early to bottom fish at this juncture. Capital preservation will be the priority of most investors for now," it said.
CIMB Research advised investors to bottomfish gradually.
"Share price weakness is an opportunity to bottom-fish, albeit gradually," it said in a report yesterday, pointing out that consolidations of 20 per cent are not uncommon in major bull markets.
CIMB's economics team has kept its estimate of a 30 per cent chance of a double-dip recession happening in the US.
"As long as the stockmarket's travails do not pull down the US economy, which would hammer Asia's exports to the US, there should be a fair chance of decoupling by Asian markets," it said.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee, which would have met late Tuesday in the US, to see if it comes up with new steps to drive economic growth.
Losses in the region yesterday were led by Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (down 5.7 per cent to 19,330.70), Singapore's FTSE Straits Times Index (down 3.7 per cent to 2,884) and South Korea's Kospi Index (down 3.6 per cent to 1,801.35).
Investors sold-down shares on fears that a potential recession in the US and Europe's debt woes would hamper a global economic recovery.
"Realistically speaking, it will take time for sentiment to pick up again following the latest rounds of global equities meltdown until workable measures from the governments or central bankers of these troubled nations," said Hong Leong Investment Bank.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:10/08/10
Sunday 7 August 2011
What caused the market to go up and DOW end in green? on 5 Aug 2011
- Regarding stocks, about 70% of the street/market is already positioned for a downgrade.
- Regarding stocks, about 40% of the street/market is positioned for a downgrade to AA.
- Actual downgrade is not to AA, but to AA+.
- The net effect of the downgrade being less than what was expected by some and surprise to about 30% of market participants.
- At the first glance, it would seem that the U.S. treasury bonds, now with a lower rating, should fall. But in reality, the opposite is a possibility. The reason is that a downgrade will provide more momentum to fiscal austerity in Washington. Fiscal austerity in the short-term means a slower economy. Slower economy means higher bonds.
- There has been a big concern about a large amount of treasuries held by big U.S. banks. The Federal Reserve Bank has just come out with a statement that it will tell member banks there is no change in the risk weighting of the U.S. treasuries. In essence, this statement means that the Federal Reserve is spanking S&P.
- It is hard to imagine France with a rating higher than the U.S.
- It is hard to imagine the European Central Bank with a rating higher than the Federal Reserve.
- This downgrade is likely to start of a race to the bottom, i.e., we may see a number of downgrades on an international basis.
- Since Moody’s and Fitch have reaffirmed AAA rating of the U.S., in material terms, this downgrade will have no effect on institutions required to hold AAA paper. By law, institutions are allowed to use the highest available rating.
S&P and the USA
Paul Krugman
OK, so Standard and Poors has gone ahead with the threatened downgrade. It’s a strange situation.
On one hand, there is a case to be made that the madness of the right has made America a fundamentally unsound nation. And yes, it is the madness of the right: if not for the extremism of anti-tax Republicans, we would have no trouble reaching an agreement that would ensure long-run solvency.
On the other hand, it’s hard to think of anyone less qualified to pass judgment on America than the rating agencies. The people who rated subprime-backed securities are now declaring that they are the judges of fiscal policy? Really?
Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.
More than that, everything I’ve heard about S&P’s demands suggests that it’s talking nonsense about the US fiscal situation. The agency has suggested that the downgrade depended on the size of agreed deficit reduction over the next decade, with $4 trillion apparently the magic number. Yet US solvency depends hardly at all on what happens in the near or even medium term: an extra trillion in debt adds only a fraction of a percent of GDP to future interest costs, so a couple of trillion more or less barely signifies in the long term. What matters is the longer-term prospect, which in turn mainly depends on health care costs.
So what was S&P even talking about? Presumably they had some theory that restraint now is an indicator of the future — but there’s no good reason to believe that theory, and for sure S&P has no authority to make that kind of vague political judgment.
In short, S&P is just making stuff up — and after the mortgage debacle, they really don’t have that right.
So this is an outrage — not because America is A-OK, but because these people are in no position to pass judgment.
OK, so Standard and Poors has gone ahead with the threatened downgrade. It’s a strange situation.
On one hand, there is a case to be made that the madness of the right has made America a fundamentally unsound nation. And yes, it is the madness of the right: if not for the extremism of anti-tax Republicans, we would have no trouble reaching an agreement that would ensure long-run solvency.
On the other hand, it’s hard to think of anyone less qualified to pass judgment on America than the rating agencies. The people who rated subprime-backed securities are now declaring that they are the judges of fiscal policy? Really?
Just to make it perfect, it turns out that S&P got the math wrong by $2 trillion, and after much discussion conceded the point — then went ahead with the downgrade.
More than that, everything I’ve heard about S&P’s demands suggests that it’s talking nonsense about the US fiscal situation. The agency has suggested that the downgrade depended on the size of agreed deficit reduction over the next decade, with $4 trillion apparently the magic number. Yet US solvency depends hardly at all on what happens in the near or even medium term: an extra trillion in debt adds only a fraction of a percent of GDP to future interest costs, so a couple of trillion more or less barely signifies in the long term. What matters is the longer-term prospect, which in turn mainly depends on health care costs.
So what was S&P even talking about? Presumably they had some theory that restraint now is an indicator of the future — but there’s no good reason to believe that theory, and for sure S&P has no authority to make that kind of vague political judgment.
In short, S&P is just making stuff up — and after the mortgage debacle, they really don’t have that right.
So this is an outrage — not because America is A-OK, but because these people are in no position to pass judgment.
Friday 5 August 2011
Education - Pre-Open and Pre-Close Routines
Subject : SGX To Introduce Pre-Open and Pre-Close Routines
Date : 25-07-2000
Please note the changes are in the Example 2 table, the opening price should be 0.310 which is the highest instead of 0.300 which is the lowest. Singapore Exchange Securities Trading (SGX-ST) today announced new Pre-Open and Pre-Close Routines for the stock market starting 21 August 2000. When implemented,
these routines will increase efficiency in order-matching, enhance market integrity and extend accessible hours for investors.
Pre-Open Routine
The Pre-Open Routine is a 30-minute session before regular trading starts at 0900 hrs. It comprises the Pre-Open Period and the Non-Cancel Period. During the Pre-Open Period (0830 - 0859 hrs), buy and sell orders can be entered, amended or withdrawn. However, they will not be matched and executed during this
period.
The Non-Cancel Period is between 0859 and 0900hrs, during which input, amendment and withdrawal of orders are not permitted. Orders that can be matched are executed at a single computed price, which will be the same as or better than the price at which the orders are entered.
This computed price shall be the opening price for the day. Unmatched orders will be carried forward into the regular trading session. This routine
facilitates the smooth flow and matching of orders once the regular trading session starts.
Pre-Close Routine
At 1700 hrs, all unmatched orders are carried forward to the Pre-Close Routine, which runs for 6 minutes and consists of a Pre-Close Period and a
Non-Cancel Period.
Similarly, orders can be entered, amended or cancelled during the Pre-Close Period (1700 to 1705 hrs). During the Non-Cancel Period (1705 to 1706 hrs), orders are matched and executed at a closing price computed for the day, while unmatched orders will become void. This routine makes it difficult for anyone to manipulate closing prices with a single transaction at an unusually high or low price, just before the trading session ends.
Computation of Opening and Closing Prices
The Opening / Closing Price will be determined in accordance with the following methodology:
* Any bid/offer at a given price may also be executed at a lower/high price
* The cumulative bid volume at any price is the bid quantity at that price plus the sum of bid quantities at all higher prices.
* The cumulative offer volume at any price is the offer quantity at that price plus the sum of offered quantities at all lower prices.
* Sell/buy pressure occurs when the cumulative offer/bid volume exceeds the cumulative bid/offer volume at a particular price.
* The tradable volume at any price is the smaller of the cumulative bid/offer volume.
* The price overlap is the range of prices where tradable volumes are possible.
* The equilibrium is the price range within the price overlap where buy pressure changes to sell pressure.
The equilibrium price is either one of the following:
* The price within the equilibrium that has the largest trade volume, or
* If there is no unique price, the average of all prices within the equilibrium with the maximum trade volume or,
* The average is rounded to the next multiple of the minimum price multiple for this stock in the direction of the previous day price.
* If there is no settlement price, the average price is rounded to the next highest price multiple.
* If there is only buy or sell pressure within the price overlap.
The opening price will be the one of the following :
* with only buy pressure within the price overlap, the highest price within the overlap with a non-zero trade volume will be the opening price, or
* with only sell pressure within the price overlap, the lowest price within the overlap with a non-zero trade volume will be the opening price.
If there is no buy and sell pressure within the price overlap, the opening price will be the one of the following:
* The average of all prices within the overlap, or
* If the price average is not the correct multiple, the average is rounded to the next multiple in the direction of the previous day price.
* If there is no previous day price, the average price is rounded to the next highest price multiple.
Example 1
Cumulative Bid Vol..... Bid Qty........ Price.....Offer Qty .....Cumulative Offer Vol...Tradable Price....Buy sell pressure.....Tradable Vol
.....- ............................... -.............. 9.80 .......22...................101............................9.80 .................................-
......2...........................2...................9.70........41...................79 ...........................9.70.................S................2
.....18...........................16............. 9.60.........20...................38.............................9.60.................S................18
........40..........................22..............9.50......14...................18...............................9.50.................B................18
.......78........................38..............9.40..........2.....................4................................9.40.................B................4
.......167.......................89..............9.30..........2............... 2.....................................9.30.................B................2
........267.....................100 ............9.20...........-.................... -...............................9.20..................................-
In this example, trades are possible at prices between 9.3 and 9.7. However, the buy pressure changes to sell pressure from 9.5 to 9.6. Since the same number of trades can be executed at both prices, the opening price would be 9.5 and 9.6 depending on which price is closer to the previous day's price.
Example 2
Cumulative Bid Vol..... Bid Qty........ Price.....Offer Qty......Cumulative Offer Vol.....Tradable Price.......Buy sell pressure......Tradable Vol
-................................ - ............. 0.345.....- ...................5....................... 0.345................................. -
-...................................- ............. 0.32......- ...................5....................... 0.32..................................
16....................................16............. 0.31......- ...................5....................... 0.31...............B.................. 5
16.................................- ............. 0.305.....- ...................5....................... 0.305..............B.................. 5
16.................................-.............. 0.300.....5 ...................5....................... 0.30...............B.................. 5
16.................................-.............. 0.255.....- ...................-....................... 0.255................................. -
26................................10............. 0.25......- ...................-....................... 0.25.................................. -
Date : 25-07-2000
Please note the changes are in the Example 2 table, the opening price should be 0.310 which is the highest instead of 0.300 which is the lowest. Singapore Exchange Securities Trading (SGX-ST) today announced new Pre-Open and Pre-Close Routines for the stock market starting 21 August 2000. When implemented,
these routines will increase efficiency in order-matching, enhance market integrity and extend accessible hours for investors.
Pre-Open Routine
The Pre-Open Routine is a 30-minute session before regular trading starts at 0900 hrs. It comprises the Pre-Open Period and the Non-Cancel Period. During the Pre-Open Period (0830 - 0859 hrs), buy and sell orders can be entered, amended or withdrawn. However, they will not be matched and executed during this
period.
The Non-Cancel Period is between 0859 and 0900hrs, during which input, amendment and withdrawal of orders are not permitted. Orders that can be matched are executed at a single computed price, which will be the same as or better than the price at which the orders are entered.
This computed price shall be the opening price for the day. Unmatched orders will be carried forward into the regular trading session. This routine
facilitates the smooth flow and matching of orders once the regular trading session starts.
Pre-Close Routine
At 1700 hrs, all unmatched orders are carried forward to the Pre-Close Routine, which runs for 6 minutes and consists of a Pre-Close Period and a
Non-Cancel Period.
Similarly, orders can be entered, amended or cancelled during the Pre-Close Period (1700 to 1705 hrs). During the Non-Cancel Period (1705 to 1706 hrs), orders are matched and executed at a closing price computed for the day, while unmatched orders will become void. This routine makes it difficult for anyone to manipulate closing prices with a single transaction at an unusually high or low price, just before the trading session ends.
Computation of Opening and Closing Prices
The Opening / Closing Price will be determined in accordance with the following methodology:
* Any bid/offer at a given price may also be executed at a lower/high price
* The cumulative bid volume at any price is the bid quantity at that price plus the sum of bid quantities at all higher prices.
* The cumulative offer volume at any price is the offer quantity at that price plus the sum of offered quantities at all lower prices.
* Sell/buy pressure occurs when the cumulative offer/bid volume exceeds the cumulative bid/offer volume at a particular price.
* The tradable volume at any price is the smaller of the cumulative bid/offer volume.
* The price overlap is the range of prices where tradable volumes are possible.
* The equilibrium is the price range within the price overlap where buy pressure changes to sell pressure.
The equilibrium price is either one of the following:
* The price within the equilibrium that has the largest trade volume, or
* If there is no unique price, the average of all prices within the equilibrium with the maximum trade volume or,
* The average is rounded to the next multiple of the minimum price multiple for this stock in the direction of the previous day price.
* If there is no settlement price, the average price is rounded to the next highest price multiple.
* If there is only buy or sell pressure within the price overlap.
The opening price will be the one of the following :
* with only buy pressure within the price overlap, the highest price within the overlap with a non-zero trade volume will be the opening price, or
* with only sell pressure within the price overlap, the lowest price within the overlap with a non-zero trade volume will be the opening price.
If there is no buy and sell pressure within the price overlap, the opening price will be the one of the following:
* The average of all prices within the overlap, or
* If the price average is not the correct multiple, the average is rounded to the next multiple in the direction of the previous day price.
* If there is no previous day price, the average price is rounded to the next highest price multiple.
Example 1
Cumulative Bid Vol..... Bid Qty........ Price.....Offer Qty .....Cumulative Offer Vol...Tradable Price....Buy sell pressure.....Tradable Vol
.....- ............................... -.............. 9.80 .......22...................101............................9.80 .................................-
......2...........................2...................9.70........41...................79 ...........................9.70.................S................2
.....18...........................16............. 9.60.........20...................38.............................9.60.................S................18
........40..........................22..............9.50......14...................18...............................9.50.................B................18
.......78........................38..............9.40..........2.....................4................................9.40.................B................4
.......167.......................89..............9.30..........2............... 2.....................................9.30.................B................2
........267.....................100 ............9.20...........-.................... -...............................9.20..................................-
In this example, trades are possible at prices between 9.3 and 9.7. However, the buy pressure changes to sell pressure from 9.5 to 9.6. Since the same number of trades can be executed at both prices, the opening price would be 9.5 and 9.6 depending on which price is closer to the previous day's price.
Example 2
Cumulative Bid Vol..... Bid Qty........ Price.....Offer Qty......Cumulative Offer Vol.....Tradable Price.......Buy sell pressure......Tradable Vol
-................................ - ............. 0.345.....- ...................5....................... 0.345................................. -
-...................................- ............. 0.32......- ...................5....................... 0.32..................................
16....................................16............. 0.31......- ...................5....................... 0.31...............B.................. 5
16.................................- ............. 0.305.....- ...................5....................... 0.305..............B.................. 5
16.................................-.............. 0.300.....5 ...................5....................... 0.30...............B.................. 5
16.................................-.............. 0.255.....- ...................-....................... 0.255................................. -
26................................10............. 0.25......- ...................-....................... 0.25.................................. -
Sunday, June 5, 2011
Move to improve SGX market transparency
THE Singapore Exchange (SGX) has launched a public consultation on proposed tweaks to the pre-opening and pre-closing routines of the securities market.
SGX said yesterday that the changes would improve market transparency. It is first proposing to publish the indicative equilibrium price (IEP) in real time throughout the pre-open and pre-close phases.
SGX's pre-open period runs from 8.30am to 8.59am, while its pre-close session is from 5.01pm to 5.05pm.
Created in 2000, these pre-open and pre-close sessions are used to electronically match orders that were not executed during trading hours. They were introduced to get rid of index-rigging and price-fixing.
During these times, market players can currently see the total buy and sell quantities, but at various bid and offer prices.
SGX is now proposing to publish IEP - the price at which orders would be executed if auction matching were to occur at that point. This price would then form the opening or closing price instead. IEP is used in markets such as Hong Kong as well.
'With this information, market participants are better able to assess market demand and supply conditions, and adjust their orders accordingly,' SGX said yesterday.
In its second proposal, SGX has asked for a 'random end' to the pre-close phase of the closing routine. Currently, the pre-close phase is fixed at five minutes after the trading session. SGX now wants to randomise the end of the pre-close phase for a varying duration between four and five minutes.
The end of the pre-close phase will be synchronised across all counters. The varying time period aims to protect the integrity of the closing price against the impact of sudden large entry and withdrawal orders, SGX said.
'Together with other initiatives including a reduction in the minimum bid size of securities from July 4, 2011, these new improvements are expected to enhance the market.'
Adapted from The Business Times (By Jamie Lee)
SGX said yesterday that the changes would improve market transparency. It is first proposing to publish the indicative equilibrium price (IEP) in real time throughout the pre-open and pre-close phases.
SGX's pre-open period runs from 8.30am to 8.59am, while its pre-close session is from 5.01pm to 5.05pm.
Created in 2000, these pre-open and pre-close sessions are used to electronically match orders that were not executed during trading hours. They were introduced to get rid of index-rigging and price-fixing.
During these times, market players can currently see the total buy and sell quantities, but at various bid and offer prices.
SGX is now proposing to publish IEP - the price at which orders would be executed if auction matching were to occur at that point. This price would then form the opening or closing price instead. IEP is used in markets such as Hong Kong as well.
'With this information, market participants are better able to assess market demand and supply conditions, and adjust their orders accordingly,' SGX said yesterday.
In its second proposal, SGX has asked for a 'random end' to the pre-close phase of the closing routine. Currently, the pre-close phase is fixed at five minutes after the trading session. SGX now wants to randomise the end of the pre-close phase for a varying duration between four and five minutes.
The end of the pre-close phase will be synchronised across all counters. The varying time period aims to protect the integrity of the closing price against the impact of sudden large entry and withdrawal orders, SGX said.
'Together with other initiatives including a reduction in the minimum bid size of securities from July 4, 2011, these new improvements are expected to enhance the market.'
Adapted from The Business Times (By Jamie Lee)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)