Market Sense

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The information contained in this publication / this website is provided to you for general information only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to obtain advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest. Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this blog/website are personal views and shall disclaim any liability for damages resulting from errors and omissions contained.

CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: April 2012
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this are personal views. No liability is accepted for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on the information provided herein.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Thursday 26 April 2012

Super connector on a roll


Super connector on a roll
Published February 21, 2007


Popiah king Sam Goi's wide contacts add value to small companies, CONRAD RAJ reports

HAVING ceded day-to-day control of his flagship, Tee Yih Jia Food, to his children and other professionals, popiah king Sam Goi, who is also the company's executive chairman, now has plenty of time to invest in other projects.

'Many of Singapore's companies are relatively small and they need to get together and cooperate more if they are to succeed in the global market. So what I am doing these days is investing in companies where I can use my connections to add value to these companies,' Mr Goi told BT.

In the last few years Mr Goi has invested more than $100 million in a slew of Singapore companies, including Super Coffeemix, JEL Corporation (Holdings), Asian Environment, Dayen Environmental, Rockeby biomed and Union Steel Holdings.

All the companies Mr Goi, who is also the Singapore regional representative for China's Fuzhou province, has invested in are publicly listed here except for Rockeby which has indicated its intention to go public.

'I only like to invest in companies that are listed or based here as there is greater accountability, transparency and corporate governance in Singapore,' Mr Goi told BT.
'I feel I can add value through my connections in the region and in China.'

- Popiah king Sam Goi
- Popiah king Sam Goi

'While I may trade blue chips, I'm in these companies for the long haul. I don't just buy and sell their shares. For instance, I started buying into Super Coffeemix of which I'm the single largest shareholder now, eight, nine years ago when the shares were just 19 cents each, and kept on buying even when they went up to 30/40 cents. Now they are trading at around 90 cents and I'm still keeping them,' he added.

Mr Goi's investment strategy is to initially start with about a couple of million dollars, 'but as I get more confident about the company and its people, I'll put in more. That's my style'.

A couple of weeks ago, Mr Goi and Super Coffeemix's chairman and managing director, David Teo, bought a 13.85 per cent stake in construction firm Lian Beng from substantial shareholder Ong Sek Chong & Sons for just under $20 million.

Mr Ong Sek Chong was the company's founder and the father of Lian Beng's current chairman and managing director Ong **** Aik. With the new shareholders coming on board, the Ong family's deemed and direct interest in Lian Beng has been pared down to 43.3 per cent.


Overseas opportunities

The two shareholders' impact on Lian Beng was almost immediate. A couple of days later Mr Goi and Mr Teo brought Mr Ong, together with Union Steel's chief executive officer Ang Yu Seng and former Transport Minister Yeo Cheow Tong, to China to meet Chinese officials for exploratory talks and possible investments.

Said Mr Ong: 'While our main business is in construction, Mr Goi tells us that the big money in China is in development and so we are going to look at opportunities there.'

More recently, Mr Goi bought 21.8 million shares or about 6.2 per cent of Zhongguo Powerplus Industries Ltd for just over 20 cents a share. He also persuaded his friends - JEL Corp, Teo Kee Bock, Mr Yeo, Mr Au, Mr Ong, Dayen board member John Lee Thian Guan and JPN Equipment managing director Lim Eng Koo - to subscribe to another 49 million shares in the company.

Mr Teo is also Singapore's regional representative for Changzhou, and like Mr Goi, has manufacturing facilities in Singapore and China. He also has factories in Malaysia, Myanmar and Indonesia, and a network of direct sales offices and distributors strategically located to reach Asia-Pacific and world markets.

Except for Super Coffeemix - whose principal activities include the manufacture and distribution of instant coffee, non-dairy creamer, instant cereal flakes and convenient food products such as instant noodles and potato chips - of which he is vice-chairman, Mr Goi is not directly involved in the management of the invested companies.

'Super is in the food business which I know very well. The others are businesses I don't know about but which I feel I can add value through my connections in the region and in China,' Mr Goi explained when asked why he wasn't directly involved in the other companies.

It also explains why before last year, except for Serial Systems, Mr Goi was focused on food and beverage companies like Thai Village, Super Coffeemix, Youcan, and Tung Lok.

Mr Goi is a great connector. For instance, in the case of JEL (not to be mistaken for Jurong Engineering Ltd which has been renamed International Capital Investment after it was taken over by Mr Goi's good friend Oei Hong Leong), he brought in DBS Holdings chairman Koh Boon Hwee as a shareholder.

'With about 70 to 80 per cent of our business in electronics, Mr Koh's knowledge of the industry is invaluable,' says JEL chairman and chief executive Eric Tan. 'Mr Goi not only introduced Mr Koh, but he is also getting us involved in China and the Middle East where, as you know, knowing the right people is important,' he adds.


Top-notch networker

At the same time, Mr Goi also gets the management of the various companies he has invested in to meet and discuss possible joint ventures or other ways by which they can work together.

For instance, having found out that JEL is strong in the African continent, he is now trying to get Super Coffeemix and the other companies to use JEL's network to export their products there.

In the case of Dayen and Asia Environment, being in similar businesses - both are in water reclamation and treatment - Mr Goi thinks there is room for greater collaboration between the two. But he does not stop there, he also thinks that Lian Beng ought to diversify into water treatment and work with these two companies.

'For instance, Dayen may find handling a $100-million job too big, but by pooling resources, it might be able to take on such contracts,' Mr Goi notes.

'Networking is important for our companies as many are relatively small and do not have the resources that multinationals and other large companies have,' Mr Goi adds.

The 58-year-old is himself a superb networker, finding time to be involved in various other public bodies, including being chairman of the international trade committee of the Singapore Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry, the president of Enterprise 50 Club and deputy president of the Singapore Badminton Association.

Sunday 15 April 2012

Did You Catch These Moves?

13 APRIL 2012
Did You Catch These Moves?
By Louis Lee and Ong Qiuying

2012, the year of hope has seen quite a fair share of signs which point to the positivity investors initially hoped for. Firstly, we have seen the successful bailout of the Greeks, and although scepticism remains despite the lid to contain the euro zone cancer, market sentiments have moved exchanges all over the globe.

In the first quarter of this year, the Standard & Poors was seen hitting its highest level since June 2008, while the Dow hit its five year high at 13,178 points, substantiating the trend of positive data we’ve seen thus far, signalling that an improving economy is underway. The local bourse has also seen itself climbing on the positive bandwagon, where it climbed from 2,658.17 on the first day of trading this year and broke above the psychological barrier of 3,000 points in February, where it has been hovering around as of late.

As much as analysts are advocating stocks which are defensive in nature to counter further uncertainties, it seems like investors are advocating another approach on their own, the approach that seems somewhat “speculative”. Presented below are two stocks that are driven by such approach, and have shown incredible leaps in the first quarter of the year which we’d like to recap (posted initially on our facebook page).




The first leaper that we’ve identified is Yoma Strategic Holdings (Yoma). As evidenced from the chart above, Yoma has been staging its uptrend move since November 2011. It caught our attention in the beginning of the year when it made its 25 percent jump in a single day on 30 January 2012 with a total trading volume of 68.97 million. It was queried by the Singapore Exchange pertaining to the trading activity and has issued a response quoting “it is unaware of any other possible explanation to the trading”. Yoma made its first five-year high on 7 February 2012 when it was seen trading at $0.57 before closing at $0.44. This level was soon broken when it reached a high of $0.62 on 9 April 2012 and closed at the same price on the back of US’ moves to ease sanctions in Myanmar, where Yoma has significant business interests in. Although prices were seen retreating on 10 April, 2012, Yoma managed to reach another high of $0.63 and closed at the same price on 11 April, 2012.

Looking ahead, Yoma will most likely benefit from the opening of Myanmar as selected sanctions are lifted by the US and open it up for investment in selected sectors, which have not been officially identified as of now. Regardless of what they are, additional investments will in turn drive demand for real estate and boost prices, and Yoma is well-placed to benefit from this development. This might be evidenced from Yoma’s Star City project, which will give Yoma a development pipeline for the next six-eight years. Lastly, Yoma is seen as the bridge between international markets because of its listing in Singapore, which allows it to receive and undertake investment projects which remain sanctioned to other players which are blacklisted by US’ and Europe’s sanctions. These advantages and potential will probably put Yoma on an uprising pedestal, which could fuel investors’ confidence and pump up its share price in the future.




IEV Holdings has got us raising our eyebrows with its shares trading at a whopping 193.3 percent premium over its initial public offering (IPO) price of $0.30 since its listing in late October last year as at time of writing. This year, IEV has already close to double its share price with a 87.2 percent jump to $0.88 as at 12 April 2012 from its close of $0.47 on its first day of trading this year.

IEV has been building up momentum in its run-up since the beginning of the year on news that IEV is progressing towards becoming a complete energy company. With a series of wins from securing a 24-months renewal of gas sales and purchase agreement with PT Indofood, as well as being awarded the first oil and gas agreement by Indonesia’s Pertamina EP, shares of IEV propelled to hit its all-time high this year at $1.05 or a 123.4 percent jump on 20 February 2012 with total traded volume hitting 22.48 million for the day.

Perhaps the shares’ exponential leap so far this year is also reflecting the market optimism for IEV’s outlook. On its transformation into a niche turnkey constructor, IEV appears to be on track to benefit from the marginal field development sector as well as the rise in decommissioning projects at the other end of the lifecycle. Notably, UOB pointed out that IEV’s upstream expansion will help to increase the company’s gas distribution volume while reducing its dependence on higher cost piped-gas as well as realising cost savings from cheaper feed gas.

Furthermore, the company is positive on the outlook of the oil and gas industry, which is booming with healthy activity, with a number of new contracts being awarded, particularly in the Asian region where IEV is exposed to. Given a sound execution and implementation of its business plans, IEV’s order book of RM280 million could send IEV’s shares rising to a quantum leap in view of strong growth potential and developments in the engineering and energy sectors.

These two stocks mentioned above showed movements which surpassed normal trading activity which caught onto our radar. Some may call these “movements” speculation, over optimism, or even co-ordinated buying to lure investors into that stock. Whatever you want to call it, we are still calling it “leap”, and when a specific “leap” occurs, no one wants to be left.

Lastly, do note that significant volume moves are also filled with a material percentage of speculation. Will we see a continuity of such moves in these two counters? Tell us what you think and share it with us on our facebook page.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com
Publish date: 13/04/12

Tuesday 10 April 2012

Why are You Trading or Investing?

Posted on  by Editor

Ever asked yourself why you are trading or investing? To make money you might answer.
Well, why do you want to make money? To buy a nicer home for my family. Now, why do you want that?
learn forex tradingStop here for a moment. Think about everything you are doing, every first thought you have when you get out of the bed. Human beings can do many things for many reasons but as the chart above shows, we ultimately want happiness.
Won’t it be great if we spend some time soul searching ourselves, and get straight to happiness? Or some shortcuts there?
So many people say things like “if I make a million I will be happy, if I can be the xxx position at the xxx job I will be happy.” Why should happiness be conditional upon some other factor? If you do not meet that criteria does that mean you are never really happy?
A lot of us spend our time learning the science of trading, for example trading strategies, trading systems, investing formulas. But until we are happy trading and investing, we will never be masters at it.
There are broadly 3 Types of Happiness
learn investing online
In the picture above, we see the smiley faces to the right – that indicates how long the happiness lasts once you take the activity away.
  • Rockstars are people who go to the casino or make bets and gambles. They get high when they make money, but this happiness quickly fades away when they stop the activity.

  • Flow happens when you are doing something and you lose track of time. This is when you are totally engaged and the happiness lasts longer. For us at AsiaPacFinance.com, Flow happens alot when we are researching and testing trading strategies, or when we are working out at the gym. The more time you spend in the flow, the happier you become.

  • And the third and longest-lasting happiness effect is when you are doing something which means more than the result. This is the reason why many successful people donate a large chunk of their wealth to helping others, it gives their lives more meaning and purpose, and makes them happier. On one extreme, you see people giving up everything to serve a higher calling, because it makes them happy. Anything else will be shortchanging their happiness.
Trading is not a sprint, it is a marathon. If you knew you were running a marathon, won’t you want to understand the science of it, instead of running randomly around the parking lot?
The media enjoys worshiping market wizards who struck it big in the shortest period of time, because these stories excite people. But really, understand that your trading career is long term, and your approach to every individual trade will change. You will stick to your rules more, you will study your performance and find ways to systematically improve so you finally get to your destination. If you were running a marathon, you would pace yourself and not go all out at the start, the latter causes people to burn out or give up.
We have heard of so many people quit trading or investing. They say things like:
“I learnt nothing from the seminar” – these people wanted to be spoon-fed. They paid money expecting the Holy Grail which we have explained here, does not exist.
“I lost money” – these people give up too easily after a setback. They associate the period of loss with the activity of trading and investing. They wanted a quick fix.

Monday 9 April 2012

China is attractive now - but is it time to buy yet?

The Shanghai market is looking REALLY attractive.











I mean, there is that little more downside that it can go, that's that. But problem is, global markets are starting to weaken. This should limit any rebound that the Shanghai market could have. So, until global stock markets fully correct, I will not be pressing the buy button yet. But I am watching closely.

10 secrets to being a millionaire and enjoying it

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/10-secrets-to-being-a-millionaire-and-enjoying-it-2012-04-03?pagenumber=1

1. Getting rich isn’t about money

Fidelity’s Peter Lynch often said, if you spend 15 minutes a year studying the economy, that’s 10 minutes too much. And when money guru Ric Edelman researched 5,000 millionaires for “Ordinary People, Extraordinary Wealth,” he discovered that millionaires spend an average of just 6 minutes a day on personal finance. They have better things to do.

2. Think different

Go inside “The Millionaire Mind” with author George Stanley: “They think differently from the crowd … it pays to be different.” Yes, it builds wealth. Go where there’s a unique opportunity that fits your unique talents. That’s “the central theme” of Stanley’s work: Don’t fit in, go your way.

3. Accentuate the positive

Most of us have read books like Napoleon Hill’s classic, “Success Through a Positive Mental Attitude.” That message hit home in “Fast Company” by a Special Forces instructor, a veteran of 26 years: “If you have a guy with all the survival training in the world who has a negative attitude and a guy who doesn’t have a clue but has a positive attitude, I guarantee you that the guy with a positive attitude is coming out of the woods alive. Simple as that.” As a Marine veteran, I know he’s on the money.

4. Quit doing what you hate

Many people live in quiet desperation, waiting for retirement, doing something they hate. Marcus Buckingham put it very simply in his winning book, “The One Thing You Need to Know”: “Figure out what you don’t like doing, then stop doing it.”

5. Do what you love

You’ve heard all the pep talks: Follow your bliss; do what you love, money will follow. But most of all, never forget Stanley’s bottom line: “If you are creative enough to select the ideal vocation, you can win, win big-time. The really brilliant millionaires are those who selected a vocation that they love.”

6. Find ‘the real you’

Working in a career that doesn’t fit right is exhausting and stressful. You’re less efficient, less productive and underperform. Get in sync with the real you. Get help from a career counselor, if necessary. Read books on personality types. In “The Millionaire Code” I identify 16 basic types to help future millionaires focus on their dreams. Buckingham’s “Now Discover Your Strengths” is another example. Find the real you, go for it and never turn back.

7. Invest in ‘You Inc.’

Tired of working for Corporate America? Become an entrepreneur. Create your own business. Read Kiyosaki’s “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” series. Browse through “EBay for Dummies.” Open a restaurant, dry cleaner or scrap-metal yard. Stanley’s lists of millionaires includes a lot of unexpected opportunities others missed. And remember, most millionaires work for themselves, pay less taxes and build equity in themselves.

8. Live with passion

Believe in something. Listen to the still small voice. What is it: Love, family, jazz, art, golf, writing, fishing, inventing, charity work? Whatever it is, it’s you. And it’s priceless. My mentor Joseph Campbell, the inspiration for George Lucas’ Star Wars, and author of “The Hero of a Thousand Faces,” tells us: “If you follow your bliss, you will always have your bliss, money or not. If you follow money, you may lose it, and you will have nothing.” Yes, even Campbell had a millionaire’s mind.

9. Live in the moment

Warren Buffett goes to work “tap-dancing.” He once told a group of University of Nebraska students: “I get up every day and have a chance to do what I love to do, every day. If you learn anything from me, this is the best advice I can give you.” Take it. We all live in the moment, that’s his, discover yours and live yours. Live every day to the fullest.

10. Make a difference

This one may be the real key to a being a successful millionaire, even before you have the money: We all have a daily pressures that demands we balance loved ones and family, the latest deal, client, customer and boss, our little world today and our future. Millionaires dream of making the world a better place, with visions of a better tomorrow for everyone. They love helping people, getting rich in spirit as well as in fact. I’ll bet you have a dream. Something that really satisfies you deep in your soul. Discover the real meaning of your life, go beyond yourself. You can get rich and make a difference too.
Remember, being a millionaire is all in your head. If you have the right attitude, if you feel it, if you believe you’re a millionaire, you’re already there, already rich. You have the mind of the millionaire. Money will follow. It really does work.

Sunday 8 April 2012

Interests vs. Career/Occupation?

“What you study now might not be the same as what you work in the future.” Sound familiar huh? Yeah, most of the people say the same thing. This lead me to some questions.
Q1, What are we studying?
I am a Physics student, and I study Physics because I am very interested in Physics, since Form 4 (secondary 4). So, I could say that I am studying what I am interested in. But, this is not the case for many students. (Many, but not most). Some students, would like to pursue higher education, because they want to end up earning more money with higher professionalism.
They might not be interested in what they are studying. In fact, they are studying for a future career path, which could earn them money. This might bring two consequences: (1) students might getting more and more interested in that subject, when they found there’s bright future for them. (2) students might end up losing all interest of studying in the school, since they aren’t interested in that subject at all, and they can’t change during the halfway of study.
This leads to another question.
Q2, Interest & Occupation/Career, which comes first?
Just like a student, a student might look for a subject that he/she is interested in, or to learn something that is useful but not interested in.
An employee might look for a career that bring him/her a good income, but he/she might not be interested in; or he/she might be interested in but not a high pay. Of course, this is not always the case, some people end up working for what they like, and they get high pay too!
I would say, it depends on personal preferences, or individual’s perspective of what a ‘career’ should be. “Career” is one of the “C” in 5C series, (Career, Car, Cash, Credit Car, Condominium, or whatever it is, there are many version of it I know. Career might be replaced by Company, where we are the boss, not having any career to be paid, but paying money for people working for us.)
Career, some might think that it is a way to get income, to sustain life: eat, drink, transport, rental, blahblahblah… Some might think career should be our interests, because we might end up getting higher pay because we are interested in and we could develop a better future into it. It’s a very subjective answer, but one more question arises.
Q3, What if, we already have enough money to live, would we choose to work something with high pay but not interested? Or will we work for something we are interested in? Or would we even choose to work?
Let’s say, given we have enough money, says billions of cash in the bank that can sustain our life until we die, what would we choose to do? Three options(1) work for high pay? (2) work for interest? (3) Not even work?
This is hypothetical question, many people dreams to have such kind of life, but what if it’s real? Many may choose option (3), not to work. That’s because, most of the people are feeling some kind of ‘suffering’ now, suffering in their job, suffering in scoring for exam blablabla… That’s because of the ‘suffer’ that we have tasted in our life, that lead us to choose not to work.
What if, this question is directed to a new born baby, given the baby can understand and answer the question, and guess what will the baby say? Because babies never feel the anxiety of the fast pace world, the reality of the financial crisis, they enjoy their life by doing on what they are interested in, or what they like. They doing non-stop on something they like or something new that they never see (curiosity). We can’t see a baby stop playing things right?
Here comes last question.
Q4, What is life about? Working for life? Or living to work?
Many people say, once a man who work for more than 50 years, and get retired after that, this man would be sick and life is shorten. Why?
One does not simply stop working suddenly, or one should never stop working. Here, I would redefine the term “working”.
Working, in term of my definition, is something that keeps our life goes on, something meaningful to us, but not necessary meaningful to others. In term of physics, Work = Energy done on something. We spend our energy and do something, that’s work. Even if we eat, we take the spoon, move the spoon from the bowl into our mouth, we have done work.
For example, an uncle who likes to plant. His interested is to understand what the plants need, how he can feed the plant to grow better, and how to make the plant more decorative. He spends his life in planting, and making the plants decorative. That’s what today we call them Bonsai. He spend his life in something he is interested in, although he does not earn money from them.
So, are you working for life? You are working to get money to sustain life?
Or, are you living to work? You live in this world, and you work as yourself? Work on what you are interested in?
My life = My interest
I like to learn. Life-long learning. I am interested in Physics, and getting more and more interested on it. Physics provides me a tools that analyse things or events happen around, qualitatively and quantitatively.
With the Physics knowledge, I could even understand more about what’s going on around me, scientifically.
I study physics, not because I just want to get a career that bring me high pay. In fact, I don’t expect studying physics will bring me high pay, but I would work for what I like.
Soon, I will explore into electronic devices during the internship next semester. The interviewer likes my learning attitude, and hence he accept me to work there, Temasek Laboratories.

Posted by Saw Giek Zhen

Chart Nexus : Stock Watch

I went to the meeting ... less than 20 attended 'FREE' stock screening!! Many elder ones there(uncles) comparing to aunties ... another half comprises of 'less than 40' bracket. I do wonder WHY there are so so few of them attending stock-screening. There are hundreds, if not thousands of them attended the RM4k+ trading course by CNX ... 4 days of those technical analysis stuff ... believe me, LESS than 20% could understand or absorb what is being taught(I m one of the failure ... I went in with prior technical knowledge ... and I am ... err ... good in Maths?) ... no way anyone could learn technical-analysis in days. Wake up ... be real. Now, what I do like about CNX is they do give this 'follow-up' sessions ... plus a forum(for members only). BUT it fails ... it fail to expect those paid thousands of good-money to LEARN ... do you know why?

First of all, the course is GOOD .. the system is good ... the follow-up could help those serious in learn technical analysis ... to LEARN. What is failing is ... the participants!! Majority of them attended the trading course for WRONG purposes(we all grown up doing things for wrong purposes, anyway). All they want is access to the forums ... if possible, some 'sifus' there mention about some stocks for them to PUNT and hoping to profits. Many of them attended trading courses AFTER they have been losing money ... like it or not, they never reflect INTERNAL systems(their brain, their emotion ... themselves!) that is failing. It is not the system ... it is the trader's mindset that is failing.

Yeah right ... what do you expect? Trading to be easy ... such as checking some charts, some indicators ... some buying-selling signals to do such trades? Really? Read all you want ... attend the course, if you could afford and wish. You will 'give-up' and abck to the square one ... due to wrong learning mindset!!

Anyway ... many more will continue to search for the sure-win system, sure-win stocks ... and still believing they will be 'rich' quick soon. Until they realise the stat of 90% losers in market, they will be just adding to the stat. I know I do not sound so encouraging ... but it is needed to be blunt. Be splash some cold water into these traders' dream ... many of them will NOT even know how to apply after they so-called graduated. Hmm ... then, what is the solution for this? I am asking myself this question too as I hope my tratles(as a group) will do well in trading ... helping each other.

Ok ... stocks that being discussed today .. screening for gap-up. I will write about how I see it rather than how the 'trainer' see it as I did not jot down what he said.

Ingress : Need to go above 1.02. I dont like the current level as it has moved above my 0.95 entry level. I do not like chasing a stock, and it is currently in news, reported in The Edge(something with Tenaga). Very low volume at the moment but the recent extreme high volume is worth watching. Did not satisfied my 'liquidity' criteria. So, I wont look into it.

GenP : Checking at 9.40 level ... why is there such an unsual high red volume bar last Friday? Still a good old Asiatic ... it is Genting's plantation arm.


Favco : Gap-up .. above 20MA, technically pointing up. Need to see if the 20MA a good support. I dont know about its fundamentals.

Wellcall : The trainer asked if anyone knew about its businesses ... and I just answered him since I do know Wellcall. Yes, rubber-hose ... . Currently trending strongly uptrend, worth to consider. Technically, it shall pullback further ... so wait for buying signals or one may use 20MA as support.

I was quiet ... till he mentioned KFC's chart. Well, I just shared with the group that KFC could NOT be traded anymore. I have struck her off my list. I traded KFC before, I like KFC(as a stock ... but my son like KFC). Then, when it was opened to the 'floor' someone mention NiCorp, Focus ... gosh ... you get what I mean. Each time I go to CNX's meetings, they will be someone asking about such get-rick-quick stocks. Now u know why they lose money and why I said many attended CNX's trading course are NOT those who want to learn to trade well? If you can't even handle a simple stock like ... say GenM, we should not even look at higher beta stocks. That is what I teach in my first class ... how to check the beta of the stocks and the significance. Look ... trading is not merely indicators ... can we add in some fundamentals, please? For who-ever sake.

Generally, we do not trade what we dont know. So, I do not know how to trade Nicorp, so I better be quiet ... as I do believe some people are profitting well from Nicorp and many more get-rich-quick.

For my tratles meeting, I would rather spend the TIME to share with them how we could analyse a chart. Yes, it is purely learning and more learning for my tratles group. Nothing to do with this-that can buy-sell or not, as if I have crystal ball. Now you know why majority fail to benefit from trading courses tho they have PAID thousands of good-money? Yeah ... I am still the cheapest with each other them paying me less than 20% for 6 months being in my trading group. I do remember some of my tratles telling me I am charging way-way too cheap ... and the majority out there will 'prefer' at least a few thousands course, with notes given ... some nice youngsters serving you water ... smiling to you and of coz, some stock tips, all in one. Oh boy ... I started to feel I am too cheap ... don't know why I will feel 'bad' if I m charging people too much. You may dont believe me ... some paying only less than RM500 for my whole course ... daily sharing in facebook ... etc etc .. it is education that I love, understand? Can't feel the passion to learn ... I am definitely will not be a good guidance for you. I am too cheap, remember?

The above is written only for sharing purposes and trade at your own risk.
TEH

Saturday 7 April 2012

'If a business does well, the stock eventually follows'

Business Times - 07 Apr 2012
SHOW ME THE MONEY
'If a business does well, the stock eventually follows'

So says Warren Buffett. And his insight rings true in some recent examples on the Singapore stock market

By TEH HOOI LING
SENIOR CORRESPONDENT

SOME three months ago, Venture Corp - a global electronics services provider which has been around for 28 years as it grew from a start-up to a multibillion-dollar business - was trading at an expected dividend yield of over 8 per cent. It has little debt, if any. Its forecast price-to-earnings multiple was 11 times, and the market was valuing it at its book value. That is, it was valued as much as the recorded price of its net assets, with no premium given to it as a company which can add value in its production process.

The average return on its assets in the last three years was 6.2 per cent, and its return on equity averaged 8.7 per cent.

Meanwhile, a smaller manufacturing company - Adampak, whose market cap was under $100 million - was trading at a yield of 11 per cent, assuming it maintained its previous year's dividend payout. The company - a manufacturer of high-quality labels, radio frequency identification (RFID) tags, seals and other die-cut components that serve the electronics, pharmaceutical, petroleum and other industries - has also been a rather consistent performer.

At the time, it was trading at 5.8 times its historical earnings, and 1.2 times its book value. It has little debt. Its return on assets amounted to 13.3 per cent on average in the past three years, while its return on equity was an impressive 16.5 per cent. Since its initial public offering in 2004 at 20 cents a share, Adampak has distributed 19.1 cents of dividends to its shareholders.

Meanwhile, Hong Fok - a property developer and investment holding company which owns the International Building, The Concourse and Henderson Industrial Park, and in Hong Kong, the Memo Building - was trading at just 30 per cent of its net asset value. Its return on assets and equity averaged 5.1 per cent and 8.8 per cent respectively.

Fast-forward to today. Venture Corp's share price has risen 31 per cent, from $6.52 on Jan 16 to $8.55 on Thursday. At the current price, the stock still comes with a dividend of 55 cents a share, which will be paid some time in May.

As for Adampak, private equity firm Navis Capital Partners last week announced an offer to privatise the company at 42 cents per share. On Thursday, the stock closed at 41.5 cents a share, up 50.9 per cent from its price of 27.5 cents on Jan 16.

Meanwhile, Hong Fok in February announced a 41 per cent jump in its net earnings to $140 million as it recognised sales revenue from the residential units of Concourse Skyline based on the percentage-of-completion method and sales revenue from its completed development properties. Last month also, it proposed a one-for-five bonus issue. Between Jan 16 and Thursday, Hong Fok's price has risen 47.6 per cent.

During the same period, the Straits Times Index rewarded investors with a return of 8.6 per cent.

The point of the above examples is that, eventually, the market will recognise the fundamentals of a business that is undervalued. Yes, in the beginning of the year, sentiment was bad. Everyone was fretting over how the crisis in the eurozone would be resolved; a bad turn of events would plunge the global financial markets into turmoil.

But the thing is, beyond the financial markets, there is a real economy that is still chugging along. People still need to buy IT gadgets for their communications, work and entertainment needs. Factories will still churn out products which need tags. Businesses still need to pay for their offices.

Yes, demand may be weak for a while. But as long as there is no structural change in the industry that the companies serve, as long as they are not too burdened by debt that their survivability is threatened, as long as the companies have shown resilience in previous economic downturns, more likely than not, these companies will still be around after the rough patch is over. At a low enough price, such companies are bargains.

Profit from folly

In this regard, it is useful to be reminded of the wisdom of one of the greatest investors of all time, Warren Buffett.

'If a business does well, the stock eventually follows,' he said.

'I never attempt to make money on the stock market. I buy on the assumption that they could close the market the next day and not reopen it for five years.'

'Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.'

'A public-opinion poll is no substitute for thought.'

So always do your own homework, and assess the attractiveness of a stock on your own - not what the market price is telling you about the stock.

Recently, a friend emailed me in response to the list of stocks I churn out every week. These are stocks with the highest dividend yields, lowest price-earnings ratios, lowest price-to-book ratios and stocks with the highest dividend yield but lowest price-to-book ratios.

He said a friend of his had alerted him to an undervalued stock with some potential share price catalyst this year.

The stock is United Engineers (UE). Since Jan 16, UE has risen 27 per cent. The company recently raised its dividends declared by 50 per cent for the full year 2011 to 15 cents. The stock will go ex-dividend on May 3. Based on its current share price of $2.50, the yield works out to 6 per cent. In addition, more dividends may be announced later this year.

In July, UE is celebrating its 100th anniversary. Going by the OCBC stable of companies (OCBC owns close to 30 per cent of UE) like WBL and Great Eastern, all paid special dividends when they celebrated their 100th anniversaries. So investors can possibly look forward to something additional this year.

On the valuation front, the stock is trading at 60 per cent of its net asset value. Among its property holdings are UE Square, a residential/commercial development on Clemenceau Avenue; UE Tech Park, a warehouse complex in Pandan Crescent; and UE Ville, a condominium on Kim Yam Road. Within UE Square, the group also runs the Park Avenue Suites serviced apartments.

By some estimates, the recurring revenue from rental and services is expected to increase from $140 million last year to about $200 million this year with contributions coming from Rochester retail mall, serviced apartments, and the award of the Temporary Occupation Permit of UE Bizhub in Changi Business Park in the next 1-2 months.

Other development projects UE is working on include the Bendemeer Road/Whampoa East Condominium, Austville Residences at Sengkang East Avenue/Buangkok Drive, and orchard- gateway at 277 Orchard Road (the former Specialists' Centre/Hotel Phoenix). However, these projects are not expected to contribute significantly to the group's development profit in 2012. In fact, its exposure to residential projects is a concern given the expected weakening of the market next year onwards.

E&C business

UE said it expects its turnover and operating profit for 2012 will mainly be derived from the engineering and construction (E&C) and the property rental and services segments.

UE spun off its E&C business as a separate listed entity last year. Since Jan 16, UE E&C - still a 70 per cent-owned subsidiary of UE - has seen its share price surge 78 per cent. Its market cap is now $187 million. This compares with UE's market cap of $720 million.

Based on a dividend of 15 cents a share, the cash needed to be distributed totalled about $43 million. According to the group's latest results, its property rental and services division generated results of $78 million. So if the dividend payments can be sustained, UE would qualify as yet another of those stocks that pay investors while they wait for some share price catalyst.

The writer is a CFA charterholder

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date: 07/04/12

Tuesday 3 April 2012

CFD Trading Strategy - Trading In Pairs

CFD Trading Strategy - Trading In Pairs

This may not new to you but a good strategy for those who like to remove uncertainty of overall market direction. It is especially helpful when you found an diverged case from historical trends and expect the patterns to converge again, hence profiting from the trades.


Extracted from CMFAS module 6A