Market Sense

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The information contained in this publication / this website is provided to you for general information only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to obtain advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest. Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this blog/website are personal views and shall disclaim any liability for damages resulting from errors and omissions contained.

CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: January 2013
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Thursday 31 January 2013

It is a boring day as the world awaits the FRIDAY reports!


2day is a really boring day as the world awaits the mega reports this friday. US market is almost stagnant now. Btw, do expect 2moro Asia market and US market to be dull as well. And there might be a little profit taking before Friday.

As Dow is approaching the all time high, we need a catalyst to breakout of the all time high. Will this friday's reports be enough for it? Or will the reports be pulling the stock market down instead.

This Friday will have a double whammy mega reports with the jobs reports and the manufacturing reports. Non-farm payroll is the key to watch out for. For now, after a research, we do not think that non farm will be bad. We should expect something that is up to expectations or even better.

For manufacturing, look towards the ISM. If these 2 are good, expect a push further into February as the earnings euphoria starts to wear off. Remember that we have said that we predict February would be a crucial month. We expect a peak to be reached in Feb followed by a sideway month.

Just be very careful in March. We expect latest, beginning of April to have a downturn.

However having said that, if jobs reports are bad on friday, this process may be escalated. Let us look closely into Friday's mega reports!

Regards
Daniel

Thursday 17 January 2013

Yangzijiang falls after announcing warrants issue plan


Yangzijiang falls after announcing warrants issue plan

Shares in Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) fell 7.7% to a one-week low on Wednesday on concerns over the potential dilution of its stock after it announced plans to issue $20 million worth of warrants.

By 9:55 a.m., Yangzijiang shares were at $1.015, with 48.9 million shares traded, 1.2 times its average daily volume over the last five sessions.

Yangzijiang said it plans to sell 330 million warrants at $0.0605 a piece, and each will carry the right to subscribe to one new share at 7.617 yuan ($1.51).

“There is some uncertainty over why the company is raising funds. It’s not a large amount they are getting and the exercise price of the warrant is also quite high considering their share price today,” said a local trader.

Monday 14 January 2013

Oei Hong Leong Tycoon with the Midas touch (KE)


Tycoon with the Midas touch –
The share price of Singapore property developer IPC Corp has almost doubled from $0.122 two days ago. This came after property tycoon Oei Hong Leong raised his stake in the company from 19.7% to 23.4%, leading to speculation of a possible takeover. Formerly an IT company, IPC recently invested in a business hotel in Japan at a cost of S$15.3m. At the current share price, the stock still trades at about 16% discount to its book value.

Each time the tycoon buys into a company, a group of people will follow suit, seemingly thinking that Mr Oei has an uncanny ability to drive shares higher. Well, there have been many such instances, if history is anything to go by. It happened when Mr Oei bought shares in companies such as Natsteel, Tung Lok, Super Group and the former Bil International (now GuocoLeisure). A more recent example was the subscription for shares in United Envirotech. Admittedly, the 20% or so increase in the share price was a comparatively milder response to that of IPC Corp. Incidentally, we note that Mr Oei’s other holdings also include a 3.5% stake in Raffles Education Corp. Could his “Midas touch” also have anything to do with the recent run-up in the share price of this counter?



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Maybank Kim Eng Research
Publish date: 09/02/12

Sunday 13 January 2013

Singapore Property Stocks gap down on open on Monday, what you should do?


I think by now, all should have known of the bombshell our government drop on housing to cool the housing market.

See this news to know more:
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/cooling-measures-singapore-123119443--sector.html

This is perhaps the most severe of all measures, and definitely housing companies will be affected.

My opinion is that if you have porperty stocks at hand, please don't sell away on monday at the opening minutes. What is lost is lost. If your stock gaps down, let it be. Let the panic subside. Trying to sell in a panic is the last thing you want. Always know that this measure will not immediately make an impact on the earnings of your property company. If your stock is having business overseas, then all the more it won't have any impact on its bottomline. So just hang on.

For those who thinking of shorting the stock, I do not encourage that. Market makers are too clever for you. By gapping the stocks down, they will try to maintain liquidity. If you short it, you may be against them. Even if you want to short, do not short during the first 60 minutes. I would encourage you to short only after Monday when you think your stock is weak.

For those that are holding on to stocks, expect the market to drop a bit, STI to be down because of the property stocks. However always remember that the fundamentals of the market in general is still bullish. I might even add some positions to my portfolio if I spot any strength in the any stocks amid the drop! 

And contrary to what you might think, one sector I will be watching to buy is the PROPERTY SECTOR, when stability returns.  I will be aiming at those property stocks whose money is not made in Singapore, but overseaslike China. Hope they are pulled down!   ;)


Regards
Daniel

Stressed? Not this remisier

Stressed? Not this remisier


Giving up bank job to trade shares has enabled risk-taker to have more family time

By Joyce Teo

Share trading and chancing your arm in risky foreign currency markets sound like a recipe for stress, but it has not worked out that way for remisier William Chua Teck Chuan.

Mr Chua says switching from a job as a relationship manager at a local bank, to broking has been a passport to a calmer life.

He had long thought of becoming a remisier while also trading for himself, but took the plunge only after the birth of his second child about two years ago.

Mr Chua, 40, says the move to become a remisier and financial adviser with Phillip Capital as well as a full-time trader allows him to play a big part in his children's lives while doing something he likes.

"I used to work from Monday to Sunday and till late on some days. Now, I try to reach home by 6pm to spend time with my kids," he says. "I am less stressed and can enjoy seeing my kids grow up."

Mr Chua, who began developing an interest in investing when he was in national service, says that while others may shy away from forex trading, he relishes the thrill of it.

"It suits me as I am the sort who cannot sit still."

He also trades local shares and does his own research, based on inter-market analysis.

It involves looking at the relationship between currencies, equities, bonds and commodities to determine the strength or weakness of the financial markets or asset classes being considered and to predict future market performance.

"The financial market has changed. It now moves very fast and everything is inter-linked. You can't rely on just technicals or fundamentals," he says.

Mr Chua has the support of his wife Christine Ng, 35. The regional marketing manager with a tourism board is a risk-taker like him.

They have a son Matthew, five, and a daughter Megan, two.


Q: Are you a spender or saver?

I was more of a spender during my younger, carefree days but am now a saver as I am a father of two.

My idea of savings is to park my money into money market funds and Treasury bills (T-bills) rather than spend on dining out or quick holidays.

I do spend on my kids though. I am very willing to spend on their education and food. I recently spent almost $1,000 on Lego as those are educational toys.


Q: How much do you charge to your credit cards every month?

I charge about $2,000 to $5,000.


Q: What financial planning have you done for yourself?

I'm a firm believer in insurance and make sure my family has adequate protection. I have whole life coverage of $1 million.

I've witnessed a few financial crises and know the market has become highly volatile. Therefore, I try to keep my investments highly liquid, to make sure I am not tied down by any period or market condition.

Typically, about 60 per cent of my money goes to high-risk investments, while the rest is in very safe and liquid products such as T-bills. When I need more funds, I can just liquidate these investments.

I do not invest in the property market as transaction costs such as stamp duty and agent fees are high and properties are not liquid.

I've seen some of my clients who over-invested in the property market face cash-flow issues during the 2008 financial crisis when the banks asked them to top up their loans.

I would rather focus on quick, liquid investments.

I have a property and could have fully paid up the mortgage of $500,000 but I would rather not as interest rates are very low.

I calculate my investment returns carefully to ensure that they are able to cover the bank charges for my loan.


Q: Moneywise, what were your growing-up years like?

I grew up in a big family with four sisters and two brothers. My mother was a housewife and my father was a seaman.

But I am the youngest child and thus did not have to worry too much about supporting my parents.


Q: How did you get interested in investing?

I got interested in investing in 1993. The market at that time was very hot. You could buy any stock and make money from it.

And people were queueing up to open Central Depository accounts so that they could trade shares.

My first investment was in SingTel shares. That was back in 1993 when I was 21 and SingTel (initial public offering) shares cost just $1.90 a share. I made a profit of a few thousand dollars some months later.

That encouraged me to continue investing in shares. I also taught myself about the stock market.

I like the challenge of analysing the market and seeing how I can make more money.


Q: What property do you own?

I sold my flat and bought a private condominium unit in the east in 2010. It cost $850,000 or $650 per sq ft.


Q: What's the most extravagant thing you have bought?

This has to be my car. I actually own two cars. My parents-in-law used an off-peak Chevrolet Aveo to drive my children to and from school.

They have recently relocated to France to be with my sister-in-law, who has a one-year-old kid. I thus plan to sell the second car.


Q: What's your retirement plan?

If retirement means staying home to watch TV, I have no plans for it. I enjoy what I'm doing now. I think I will need $5,000 a month and I am confident of generating this amount from my investments.


Q: Home is now...

A 1,249 sq ft condo unit in the east. It is valued at about $1.25 million.


Q: I drive...

A silver Honda Airwave.

WORST AND BEST BETS

Q: What is your worst investment to date?

It was a forex transaction.

I was overconfident about my position as I was making consistent profits before the flash crash in May 2010.

With $50,000, I could have had an open position of around $500,000. My mistake was not setting any stop-loss level. The market then crashed and I lost $8,000 within one minute.

It caught me by surprise but I quickly recovered from the shock to close my position. If I had not done that, I would have lost all my $50,000 in a few minutes.

It was a really painful lesson for me. Since then, I make sure I always set my stop-loss level for every trade.

Once I set my stop-loss level, which is the amount I am prepared to lose, I am ready to roll.


Q: What is your best investment to date?

I bought some shares in Genting Singapore some time back and sold them for around $2 each within six months.

I made a profit of around $30,000.

But how much you make from one trade is not important as you can make $30,000 from one stock within a month but lose $40,000 on another trade.

To me, nothing beats achieving an 80 per cent accuracy on my trades each month. 


Source: The Straits Times

SI Portfolio Beats The STI For The Fourth Consecutive Quarter; Up 43.5% YoY


04 JANUARY 2013
SI Portfolio Beats The STI For The Fourth Consecutive Quarter; Up 43.5% YoY
By Jade Lee, Louis Lee, and Nicholas Tan
We have seen many things happen in 2012 from the re-election of President Obama, the Eurozone debt crisis that is continuing to weigh its negative influence on markets to China’s slowdown. Nevertheless, the Straits Times Index (STI) still managed to perform pretty well this year, with a total return of 19.7 percent (as at 31 December 2012) as compared to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) (+7.3 percent).

So how did our SI Portfolio fare after all?

Since the start of 2012, our SI portfolio has been outperforming the STI for each cumulative quarter. At present, we are happy to say that we have beaten the STI for four consecutive quarters, and have generated a total return on the portfolio of 43.5 percent (inclusive of dividends) as at 31 December 2012.

For the fourth quarter, our top three performing stocks are Super Group Holdings, Global Logistics Properties and Ezion Holdings.

Super Group Roars In Share Price Gains

Super Group has generated a return of more than 140 percent. It continues to be fuelled by its strong market leader position across fast-growing Asean markets, strong diversified geographical reach, and higher product sales.

In its latest 9M12 results, Super reflected a 49.7 percent increase in earnings as a result of increased sales revenue and higher gross profit, which arose from its operational efficiency and effective cost management. This double digit growth in earnings was despite macro-economic uncertainties, which stems its resilience and highlights its robust business model. Its branded consumer sales continue to see upside performance as sales from this segment is typically stronger in the second half of the year following festive seasons.

Although we feel that raw material costs are expected to fluctuate in the next 12 months, we feel that Super has been traditionally strong in mitigating such exposures. As at 30 September 2012, Super has a healthy balance sheet with cash and bank balances of $72 million.

Ezion Brings In Strategic Investors To Pursue Growth Strategy

Ezion Holdings’ share price hit a historical high to end the year at $1.69, substantiating a 156.1 percent gain since the beginning of 2012. Notably, Ezion’s share price for the fourth quarter continued its ascend and climbed 25.7 percent on the back of news that strategic investors were roped-in to back its growth strategy.

Most recently, in as many months, Ezion announced its second strategic placement. EDB Investments (EDBI), the corporate investment arm of Singapore’s Economic Development Board subscribed to approximately 14.3 million new ordinary shares and injected $19 million into Ezion to grow competitive businesses to build sustainable industry pillars for Singapore. In our view, the backing of an esteemed partner like EDBI signals a positive vibe for the industry and will allow Ezion to leverage on EDBI’s extensive network of resources and vast experience to further expand its business in the vibrant offshore oil and gas industry.

In November 2012, Ezion successfully raised $12.5 million following the acquisition of 10 million new shares by industry veteran Tan Boy Tee. Having more than 30 years of experience in marine construction and engineering, we believe the engagement of Tan as a strategic partner and ad hoc advisor will help the firm in securing more new projects.

In addition, the company’s joint venture with Kim Seng Holdings had secured US$298 million worth of contracts to provide two service rigs over a seven year period to support the oil and gas activities of a national oil major in Central America, which will lead to earnings accretion from 1Q13 onwards. Its recently acquired stake (44 percent) in YHM, a company engaged in the scaffolding business catering to the construction and marine industries, also reflects a synergistic approach by Ezion to complement its current business.

GLP J-REIT Joins TSE; Likely Higher Yield Payout Than TSE REIT Index

Modern warehouse provider GLP, which announced several big moves for the past couple of months, has seen its share price jumped 10.8 percent for the three months ended 31 December 2012, further translating into a whopping 58.9 percent jump since beginning of the year.

Of the recent moves, the disposal of its 30 properties in Japan to set up a real estate investment corporation in Japan (GLP J-REIT) once again caught our eyes. In fact, the deal was earnings accretive with net profit contribution of around US$102 million, representing approximately 23 percent of GLP’s consolidated net profits for the year ending 31 March 2012.

In view of the bleak Japanese economy, the listing of GLP J-REIT has unavoidably raised concern of continued buying interest. Yet, a comforting note is that the Bank of Japan has been buying REITs since 2010 as part of a 76 trillion yen (US$110 billion) asset fund to support its economy. Moreover, Japan REIT Index has gained 33.6 percent in 2012 and is set for its largest gain since at least 2004.

The scarcity of modern warehouse in Japan would also further substantiate GLP J-REIT’s business rationale in the near future. Notably, Takeshi Akagi, head of research and advisory for Jones Land Lasalle mentioned that the demand for modern warehouses has been set to rise as more companies were outsourcing logistics business to cut costs and the volume of internet shopping traffic was increasing. To date, GLP owns 15 percent interest in GLP J-REIT and will act as the property and asset manager of the REIT.

Meanwhile, GLP J-REIT plans to enhance shareholders’ payout with money that Japanese REITs usually set aside to cover depreciation expenses. According to the forecast provided by GLP, GLP J-REIT’s dividend yield in August 2013 has been lifted from 6 percent to approximately 6.8 percent based on the indicative price of 60,500 yen, as compared to average dividend yield for Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) REIT Index of 4.7 percent. This could potentially attract both local as well as international investors seeking high yield investments.

Conclusion

As we move into the first green patch of 2013, we are thankful for the gains that have been reaped in 2012. Although we have beaten the STI by a good 23.9 percentage points, we are humbled by such performance on our portfolio, as 2012 has indeed been a year that has seen many different things which could break the market in a finger snap. Moving forward, we will continue searching for stock gems in 2013 for you!



Source: Compiled by Shares Investment
Inclusive of dividend received from OCBC ($0.31), Keppel Corp ($0.44), ComfortDelgro ($0.062), M1 ($0.145), Olam ($0.04), GLP ($0.03), Ezion ($0.001), Cordlife Group ($0.018), Q&M ($0.00675), Super Group ($0.058), Sound Global ($0.01), OKP Hldgs ($0.02), LippoMalls ($0.0274).
The information contained in the factsheet does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell securities, and is used solely for illustrative purposes only.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date: 04/01/13

2013 Market Outlook And Stock Picks: Experts’ Favourites


04 JANUARY 2013
2013 Market Outlook And Stock Picks: Experts’ Favourites
By Editorial Team

In this special two-part feature to kick-start 2013, we have invited market experts to share their views on the market outlook for the Asian markets and our local bourse. Beyond that, the Shares Investment team and the experts will also be identifying potential performers in the stock market this year.

After a tumultuous year in 2012 that had seen the stock markets exhibit wild swings on the woes of the European debt crisis, slowing growth in US and China, major indexes have, nonetheless, been seen moving to higher grounds in recent rallies.

However, the global economy is hardly in a better shape as gross domestic product projections around the globe have remained low and many blue-chip companies have not registered significantly higher earnings. With the global economy expected to remain fragile, how will 2013 pan out for the Asian stock markets?

Sharing his views with Shares Investment in an exclusive interview, Professor Chan Yan Chong commented, “Volatility is likely to remain in the stock markets for 2013 as the global economy has yet to recover and the rising stock market performance has been due to the excess money in the market following the numerous stimulus measures churned out in 2012.”

“The policy easing trend is likely to continue with more central banks putting forth easing measures to excite the economy, especially Japan and China,” Professor Chan added. Highlighting Japan as the world’s third largest economy, he remarked that newly elected leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party are likely to introduce more monetary easing in the market in order to combat the ailing economy it faces and the Japanese yen has weakened on such expectations.

“Unlike Japan which faces a contracting growth, China’s tight monetary policies have been due to the high inflationary pressures in the country. However, with its economic indicators showing declining results and rising production costs, China could also be introducing easing measures when its new leaders take over in March 2013.”

Professor Chan, however, cautioned that while markets could continue in an upward trajectory in anticipation of China’s new policies, it may experience a correction if the policies are not realised and if the market moves up too quickly, a new bubble might form.

Turning to our local market, Professor Chan noted that the Straits Times Index (STI), although predominantly tracking the US market movements, is becoming more and more influenced by the Asian markets which have been shifting focus to the developments of the China market. Also, he added that with the US stock market approaching 2007-highs, investors may find the valuations too high and the hot money could in turn, flow into the Asian region and drive up indexes here.

With the markets expected to trend upwards this year as highlighted by Professor Chan, how should investors ride on this wave without getting trapped in the volatility that will be here to stay? Read on to find out what three other market experts, Gabriel Gan, Willie Tan Yi Li and Collin Seow, have to say about our local market outlook and their favourite picks this year as they share their insights with us.

Shares Investment: What is your view on the performance of the STI for 2013?

Gan: 3,200 should not be a problem for the STI in the near-term provided that the index does not fall over the cliff, which is unlikely to happen. The daily, weekly and monthly charts signify more upside for STI although a correction should not be ruled out in the mid-term. Thereafter, STI is likely to reach 3,400 by mid-2013.

Tan: In the past two years, the stock market has come under continuous attacks from financial crises. However, that is about to change. Economic growth this year should outstrip that of 2012. Current reasonably low stock prices will also aid the recovery of investors’ confidence. In my opinion, the STI may test the 3,300 resistance level. Should the resistance level be broken, the index will head towards the 3,600 level. Meanwhile, the 3,030 level will act as a support.

Seow: The important resistance levels that I will be looking at in 2013 for the STI would be 3,200 and 3,280. For the support levels, I think 2,720 and 2,930 are important. I’m expecting an upside biasness if the STI can break the 3,200 level. I’m largely maintaining a buy at support and sell at resistance stance.

SI: What do you think the investment theme will be this year?

Gan: It will be to abandon defensive in search of superior returns. High beta stocks are likely to enjoy favour and cyclical stocks should do well.

Tan: The oil and gas industry looks promising for 2013. While oil prices are on a downtrend, the decline is just temporary. Being an irreplaceable commodity, oil will not exhibit huge price swings. As the global economy tries to get on its feet, demand for oil will rise. In addition, oil-related stocks are still reasonably priced.

Seow: I remain neutral on any sectors. I mean, you can be looking at the technology sector, oil and gas sector or even transportation, but I would prefer to focus on China related stocks or potential reverse takeover targets for 2013 instead. I would say I’m looking at 2013 with a very stock approach rather than a general sector approach.

SI: What are your top three picks and why do you think they stand out against their peers in the same industry?

Gan – STX OSV Holdings, OSIM International,
Neptune Orient Lines

STX OSV Holdings has my near-term preference due to the takeover offer by Italian shipbuilder Fincantieri SpA at only $1.22 apiece. This price will form a solid support and weaknesses should be able to stop here. Meanwhile, the firm managed to experience a solid growth in 2012 despite the fact that others were suffering. In addition, the selling of stakes by its parent, STX Europe, was for the purpose of raising cash. For 2013, the demand for specialised offshore vessels should continue to do well particularly if Europe and oil prices recover.

Tan – DBS Group Holdings, Sembcorp Marine, Noble Group
Noble Group makes up one of my 2013 picks. Noble, unlike Olam, is engaged in a wider range of commodity trading which involves metals and energy-related products. The prospects of such products remain bright. Furthermore, the leadership change may seek fresh impetus for growth.

Looking at Noble’s price chart, there is a strong support level whereby four rebounds have occurred since November 2011. This level is noteworthy as prices have not fallen below this level. However, the momentum of its rising share price, is seemingly retained by its moving averages which have act as a resistance. It will take some time. Should Noble’s share price break the resistance, I believe the pace of the price rally would accelerate. Resistance levels are at $1.21, $1.285 and $1.37. The support levels are $1.12 and $1.02 with the latter being the crucial support level. Based on my forecast, the stock price could reach $1.535.

Seow – China Aviation Oil, Yanlord Land Group, Ho Bee Investment
After rallying to $2.89 in 2009, Yanlord Land Group began to slide to as low as $0.69 in October 2011. In 2012 however, Yanlord is no longer on the same downtrend move.

The rebound seen in June 2012 for Yanlord’s stock price confirms this view. My target price based on Fibonacci retracement and moving average is $2.00 for this year. Also on their fundamental front, Yanlord have acquired sites in Zhuhai for developing prime residential property. The acquisition capitalises on government initiatives to inject over Rmb300 billion to develop Zhuhai into a western hub for the Pearl River Delta.

Coupling this with improved gross profit, fair value gain on investment property, net gain on disposal of available-for-sale investment, foreign exchange gain and lower finance cost, the stock may continue in its upward trajectory.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com
Publish date: 04/01/13

Saturday 12 January 2013

Why It's Time to Buy China Bank Stocks

A turnaround in China's bank earnings seen in the second half of last year is likely to continue into 2013 as the economy improves further, prompting analysts to turn bullish on the sector.

For example, Japan's investment bank Nomura forecasts earnings growth to be up to 15 percent annually over 2012 to 2014 — on increasing loan demand and yields. While China's top four banks are yet to release last quarter results, full year 2012 earnings growth is expected to be between 7 percent and 22 percent, according to Nomura.

In a report released on Monday, Nomura said China's economic recovery is going to bode well for banks in the near-term, which will benefit from modest inflation and loose monetary policy.

"We turn more positive on Chinese banks in the near term given the recovery in economic growth, moderation in asset quality deterioration as well as relatively resilient margins," the report said.

Market watchers have predicted that stronger economic growth in China this year, which Chinese think tank State Information Centre of China has predicted to hit 8 percent, could bring big gains for Chinese equities.

Nomura, which is overweight on China's financial stocks, has as its top picks China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank. These Hong Kong listed banks are expected to see a jump of 16 percent to 18 percent in their share prices in this year.

Backing that sentiment, Barclays released a report saying that China's banking shares listed in Hong Kong led gains in its Asia ex-Japan banks index in December, up 12.3 percent, prompting them to remain positive on the sector in the first half of this year.

"We raise our 2012-14 earnings forecasts primarily on improved bank loan pricing power and lower credit costs," Barclays said. "We expect China banks to demonstrate better NIM (net interest margin) than we estimated before, stable asset quality and reduced capital pressure."

In the first half of 2012, there were concerns that China banks' non-performing loans would balloon with a slowing economy and hurt profits. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China — the world's biggest lender by market value — posted its smallest earnings growth since the global financial crisis in the second quarter of 2012 of 11 percent, down from 29 percent a year ago. However, better-than-expected third-quarter earnings have helped the big banks recover losses.

Risks Remain

But despite the upbeat outlook for China's banking sector in the first half of 2013, analysts warn that lurking risks like shadow banking, which refers mainly to non-bank lending, still remain an issue.

"We continue to be cautious on the sector in the medium to long term due to the challenging operating environment for Chinese banks," Nomura said, adding that the China Banking Regulatory Commission's has said it will work to create more transparency in the banking system.
—By CNBC.com's Rajeshni Naidu-Ghelani;


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CNBC 
Publish date:07/01/13

Summary of Investment Seminars by SPH 12/1/2013

Summary of Investment Seminars by SPH on 12/1/2013

by ckchoy

Today, I attended a Mandarin investment seminar organized by SPH. 
蛇年投资理财有高招?
Few speakers covered a wide range of topics including Singapore's economy structure, Gold investment, Forex, Stocks, Property investment...

First speaker: Still optimist on Singapore economy grow, about 3% for next 2 years, thanks to government effort and policy.

Second speaker: Gold trading
- reviewed 2012 trend - about 5% return (minus 2% interest paid), a very tight range profit
- long term uptrend still intact since no sign of reversal
- currently stuck in tight range between 1500 - 1800. Until the support/resistance is broken, gold will continue trade in this tight range
- expect 2013 trading pattern about the same as 2012, conclusion, expect reward/risk ratio not attractive

Third speaker: Forex
- USD remain weak in short term due to quantitative easing
- expect USD to strengthen in second half of 2013, after FED changed view that it may started to tighten monetary policy/interest hike when jobless drop below 6.5% ( Instead of tie to calendar year 2015 to remain zero interest rate policy)
- US is in the development phase of its on energy producer and will depend less or import less energy resources from other countries and may even become an energy producer. Hence expect US deficit to narrow and even back to surplus - this will further give rise of strength to USD. 

Fourth Speaker: Stocks talk: the summary from the speaker should be towards cautious positive, favourable but challenging. Nevertheless he mentioned few stocks that we should take a look at ( good counters for good investment opportunity and means room for upside potential )

Oxley
LippoMalls
Cordlife
CNMC
Delong

His research is based on fundamental analysis. He recently went to China for his routine company visit and research and concluded Delong is a good company and provide good investment opportunity.

Monday 7 January 2013

2013:股市谨慎乐观


2013:股市谨慎乐观
美国投行摩根大通(JPMorgan)预言2013年将成为“危机后第一年”,该行指出其谨慎乐观来源于:缓和的欧洲信贷市场状况、各大央行的支持以及中国持续而稳定的增长。

该行全球策略师丹•莫里斯(Dan Morris)指出:“投资者应将资产从现金及其他低收益资产中转移出来,买入收益超过通胀的证券。”

专家们对关键资产类别在一定程度上持有一致意见。基本上所有人都同意核心政府债券十分昂贵,尽管对于这些债券会在多长时间内保持坚挺仍然众说纷纭。眼下央行对通胀似乎越来越容忍,普遍认为股票具有投资价值。私人银行顾资(Coutts)的投资办公室主管盖尔•舒马赫(Gayle Schumacher)表示:“自金融危机以来投资者一直在逃避股市,不过目前是逆转这一策略的时候了。”

不过,在这一普遍呼声之中,人们对于美国、欧洲还有新兴市场哪个更有优势仍有争议。对有的人来说,美国正在复苏的房市以及强劲的公司业绩是决定性优势。其他人则认为欧洲的投资机会更好。

家庭理财公司Iveagh首席投资官克里斯•怀利(Chris Wyllie)表示:“11月30日迎来了一个重大时刻,欧元区斯托克指数(Euro Stoxx)年初至当日的总回报率超过了标普500指数(S&P 500)。我们认为这一趋势还会进一步扩大,因为过去四年世界股市严重低迷,而欧洲股市有潜力在更大程度上改善其状况。”

英国《金融时报》的富时100(FTSE100)指数最终会不会在振荡中突破6000点大关(编者注:此文发表于2012年12月27日;富时100已于今年1月2日突破6000点大关),并保持在这一位置呢?股票经纪公司Killik的分析师认为答案是肯定的。考虑到各企业强劲的资产负债表、估值以及诱人的股息收益率,他们认为该蓝筹股指数到2013年底将达到大约6500点。“这样市场预期市盈率将为12倍,而预期收益率将为3.5%。”

对那些追求更另类的投资风格的人来说,日本又一次保持了其一贯的逆向投资预期。贝莱德投资研究所(BlackRock Investment Institute)的分析师表示:“我们最大的逆向投资想法就是,买入日本出口商股票,并卖出日元。”

发达市场的主权债务也许正处在泡沫状态,而新兴市场的债券却是有效的收益来源。基金管理公司Threadneedle首席投资官马克•布格斯(Mark Burgess)指出:“惠誉(Fitch)最近将土耳其的评级调升至投资级,这足以显示新兴经济体的状况有多好。”

小盘股的股价通常会得益于风险偏好的上升,而当大公司希望将不断增长的现金盘活时,小盘股公司经常会成为收购的目标。因此,对许多策略师来说,并购增多是一项主要预测。

对个人投资者来说,软性大宗商品风险很高,但是越来越多的人饮食在不断改善这一长期趋势是很难反驳的。

当然,对2013年的普遍乐观情绪中也夹杂着一些谨慎态度。布格斯表示:“对于即将来临的2013年,投资者们知道发达国家经济基本面的问题差不多都没解决。”他将目前总体上的改善描述为“从很糟糕到糟糕”。

各国政治人物仍可能从中作梗,不论是美国财政悬崖谈判、意大利和德国的大选,还是有关如何解救欧元区的对峙。伊朗及朝鲜核问题上的紧张局面很容易恶化成一场危机。明年,投资者可能会面临央行减弱对经济的支持力度的一天。此外,不排除还会发生“黑天鹅事件”,出现阿拉伯之春(Arab Spring)或日本海啸这类投资者无法合理预料到的事件。

但成功的投资者往往关注他们能够掌控的事情,而不是为他们无法控制的事情担忧。关于投资有句老话:“增加收益,减少亏损,降低成本,红利再投资,持续投资。”这话流传至今不是没有道理,它总体上是对的。

译者/简易

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: FT中文网
Publish date: 04/01/13

Sunday 6 January 2013

How To Invest In 2013?

How To Invest In 2013?

by ckchoy

It has been 8 months passed since my last write-up on Personal Market View in 2012 May, where my last updates were mostly trying to spot market bottoms and tops using HSI as reference.

Why spotting bottoms and tops? Because big turning points will occur here, where it offers investors the best entry/exit points with the best reward/risk ratio. We can almost say 'close one eye' also can easily pick any counters to make substantial gain.  Eg bottom call on 15 Dec 2011, top call on 8 Feb 2012 and bottom call on 18 May 2012. Now, bottom -> top -> bottom, so when will be a top coming soon?

When Fed Ben declared QE3 with open-ended monthly purchases of bonds in Sep 2012, there is little chance for us to fight against the FED. Hence instead of guessing the next top why don't we plan how to invest our money? Market is flooded with excessive liquidity, causing high inflation, hence keeping cash or putting money in bank should be the last choice.

Below are some suggestions how to invest you money:

The order of 1 to 6 means from conservative to aggressive
Note: 1=lowest risk, lowest possible gain, least homework needed.
6=highest risk, highest possible gain and intensive homework needed

'Least homework needed' means
- only need to do basic homework on a counter eg business nature, dividend yield.
- usually, short term news, market sentiment may only affect the stock price temporary and the counters will come back on track eventually, high chance in short time.

'Intensive homework needed' means
- not only you need to do basic and detailed homework on the counters, you also need to follow any news related to the counter, insiders/syndicate movement using TA, daily news to influence market sentiment, major markets movement that will move the world eg US market, China market.
- Playing and holding them may cause you sleepless night because if you don't monitor this group of counters closely, very high chance, any news or major sentiment shift will cause substantial drop in the stock price and take a very long time to recover or never recover at all.

1. Defensive/Dividend play (Conservative, only target on dividend and little capital gain)
a) Matured counters with good dividend yield record, eg Singtel, SPH, ST Eng, SIA
b) ETF eg STI ETF, China ETF - ETF, which comes with dividend is good enough to match with unit trust as most unit trust track indices or buying only into blue chips.

2. Conservative play on blue chips backed with assets (Conservative, target on dividend with some capital gain)
Besides their earnings, the values of the counters are highly dependent on their NAV(Net Asset Value)
Property counters eg Capitaland.
Commodity counters eg Golden Agri, Noble, Wilmar

3. Growth play on blue chips (Conservative, target on dividend with gradual capital gain)
Good track record on consistency earnings
eg Keppel Corp, Sembcorp, Sembcorp Marine, F&N

4. Riding on momentum on cyclical second liners (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-100% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between $1 to $2/3.
eg NOL, Cosco, Ezra, YangZiJiang

5. Aggressive play on penny counters (Aggressive, with little dividend and possible 50%-200% capital gain)
These counters usually are in the range of between 10 cents to $1.
eg Ausgroup, Yoma, Interra Res and many more

6. Multi-bagger bet on super penny counters (Aggressive, almost no dividend and aiming for few folds capital gain)
These counters usually are below 10 cents.
MDR, Contel, Hankore and many more

There is no right/wrong on which counters to choose. Assess yourselves what/which best suits you.