STI Components & Weightage(23/08/10)

Rank	Constituent Name	Subsector Name	Weight in Index (%)
1	Singapore Telecom	Fixed Line Telecommunications	9.78
2	DBS Group Holdings	Banks	9.59
3	Oversea-Chinese Banking	Banks	8.47
4	United Overseas Bank	Banks	8.44
5	Wilmar International Limited	Food Products	6.76
6	Capitaland	Real Estate Holding & Development	4.88
7	Jardine Matheson	Diversified Industrials	4.64
8	Hong Kong Land	Real Estate Holding & Development	4.55
9	Keppel Corp	Diversified Industrials	4.1
10	Noble Group	Diversified Industrials	3.76
11	Singapore Airlines	Airlines	3.68
12	Singapore Exchange	Investment Services	3.3
13	City Developments	Hotels	2.8
14	Fraser and Neave	Diversified Industrials	2.45
15	Singapore Press Holdings	Publishing	2.37
16	Jardine Strategic	Diversified Industrials	2.36
17	Golden Agri-Resources	Farming & Fishing	2.02
18	Singapore Technologies Engineering	Aerospace	1.88
19	Genting Singapore	Recreational Services	1.77
20	CapitaMall Trust	Retail REITs	1.71
21	Jardine Cycle & Carriage	Specialty Retailers	1.52
22	Olam International	Food Products	1.51
23	CapitaMalls Asia	Real Estate Holding & Development	1.44
24	SembCorp Industries	Diversified Industrials	1.38
25	Sembcorp Marine	Commercial Vehicles & Trucks	1.3
26	ComfortDelgro Corp	Travel & Tourism	1.27
27	Neptune Orient Lines	Marine Transportation	0.79
28	StarHub	Mobile Telecommunications	0.59
29	SMRT Corp	Travel & Tourism	0.59
30	SIA Engineering	Transportation Services	0.31
		Total	100

Marking of Indices

Indices that I'm marking daily
Compared to 31 Dec 2012, as of today, 30 May 2013
1. Japan Nikkei +30.7%,
2. US Dow +16.8%
3. Germany DAX +9.5%
4. STI +5.3%
5. China SSE +2.7%
6. Korea KOPSI +0.2%
7. Hong Kong HSI -0.8%
Year highs/lows in 2013(as of today) are in respective columns
eg high/low for
Nikkei +50.3% / +0.9%
STI +9.1% / +0.9%
HSI +5.1% / -5%
and so on.

台湾股神胡立阳：下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲

台湾股神胡立阳：下半年可能美股重挫A股上冲
2013年05月23日 16:16  新浪财

　新浪财经讯 5月23日消息，亚太股市今日集体大跌，日本股市日经225指数收跌7%，截止14:30港股恒指跌幅超2%。有台湾股神之称的胡立阳对新浪财经表示，美股和美国国债下半年可能出现因为QE(量化宽松)结束的过山车及重挫，相反A股可能往上冲，跟美股形成跷跷板。

　　胡立阳称，今日亚太股市大跌表明全世界资本市场的神经都被美股牵着走。美股一个月来一路涨涨不休，像过山车一样往上爬，当越来越高时迟早要下来。而美股上下的原因就是量化宽松，市场对此心惊胆战。最近总听到消息称QE随时会结束。因此下半年美股将会像过山车一样吓人，真正的起伏将出现。


　　胡立阳还表示，美股为什么会涨涨不休，首先要了解资金的动态。最重要的就是通过美国10年期国债收益率来看资金状况。实际上国债收益率这个月一直往上至接近2%，几乎是今年来新高。国债收益率上升代表债券价格下跌。大家担心美国资金紧缩和加息。美国债券价格已跌一个月。资金在过去一个月从债券市场流入美股，因此道指涨涨不休。但如果美国QE结束，债券和股市将一样重挫。

　　当谈到A股时，胡立阳称他对A股不会过分担心，其他很多涨得多的国家股市才会被拉回。A股与美股联动少，目前仍处于低位区域，因此不会受太多牵连。不排除下半年出现美股下跌，A股出现往上冲的跷跷板走势，就想2008年四季度一样。香港的中资股还是沾着A股，所受的牵连也比较少。

　　胡立阳称对于美股，必须提防两个时间段。一个是过去20,30年间，美股6,7,8月回出现放暑假(熄火)行情，不排除重演下跌。另一个是10和11月。(晓峰)

　　胡立阳简介：

　　34岁时担任美国最大的证券公司美林证券第一位华籍副总裁，公认的华尔街“股市神童”，也被称为“台湾股神”、“亚洲股市教父”等。1985年底回台湾“中央大学”、台湾政治大学教授股票投资学，并担任台湾“财政部证券管理委员会”顾问和台湾证券市场发展基金会秘书长。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新浪财经
Publish date: 23/05/13

Six Reasons Why Gold Prices Could Dip 80% From Here

Six Reasons Why Gold Prices Could Dip 80% From Here

Dr. Phil McGraw preaches “There’s no reality -only perception.” We see the world through individual lenses, shaped by our past, attitudes and personal agenda. That’s been evident in gold markets this week.

Now that the yellow metal has melted nearly 30% from its September 2011 high, those who see the glass half-full claim gold will rebound from oversold levels on bargain buying and short covering. Those who see the glass half-empty say it stands to crash another 50% and as much as 80%.

Global Monetary Stimulus

Cheerleaders contend the fundamental reasons for gold remain: central banks around the world are slashing interest rates to new lows, buying debt and printing more money, thereby devaluing paper currencies and pumping inflation, which bolsters gold prices.

After the European Central Bank cut its interest rate to an epic low of 0.50% in earlier this month, 12 other countries - including Australia, India, and South Korea - clipped their key rates.

Those follow the Bank of Japan’s bold bond buying plan - much bigger as a share of the economy than America’s under the Federal Reserve. The BoJ action has sent the yen plunging.

“It is a currency war and those who inflate first, get the most benefits,” Przemyslaw Radomski, CEO of Sunshine Profits, a gold and silver trading advisory in New York City wrote in client note. “They are short-lived because other countries will follow and the ultimate result will eventually be huge inflation on a global scale.”

Gold bears, on the other hand, argue that gold will meltdown further for the very same reasons. But they believe global central bank policies will lead to deflation and eventually blow up in their faces.

“If governments are actively fighting deflation, which is exactly what they’re doing, then deflation is the trend, not inflation,” Harry Dent, founder of HS Dent, an economic and forecasting firm in Delray Beach, Fla., wrote in his “Survive And Prosper” newsletter. “But we only see the deflation when such artificial stimulus fails to create growth.”

He projects gold will collapse to “at least $750 an ounce over the next few years” and even as low as $280 an ounce, down 46% to 80% from Tuesday’s price. He lists six reasons why the global economy will spiral south over the next two years:

1. Spain’s real estate bubble continues to deflate. At some point it will overwhelm the banks and Germany and the European Union will lose faith in bailouts.

2. France’s economy continues to slow and its population continues to sour on the euro and bail out plans for weaker nations.

3. Demographics in the strongest countries in Europe, like Germany, Switzerland and Austria, will peak in spending and go off the demographic cliff in 2014 -just like the U.S. did in 2008.

4. Commodity prices, which keep falling in a vicious circle, hurt exports and growth for emerging countries, who then buy less from China, hurting its exports and growth, so commodity prices go down further.

5. If Japan succeeds at raising its growth and inflation rates, it’ll see bond yields rise and the government will faces a massive rise in its interest expenses. The bond markets will lose faith in Japan.

6. The wealthiest 10%-20% (of the population), who control about 50% of consumer spending in the U.S. economy, are finally slowing their spending as their kids leave the nest and they begin to feel the sting of ever-rising taxes on them.

Physical Vs. Paper Gold

Successful investors should buy physical gold as a hedge against inflation and currency debasement but stay away from the paper gold markets, says Jeff Sica, founder of Sica Wealth Management with about $1 billion in assets under management based in Morristown, N.J.

They physical market is dictated by supply and demand. The gold options and futures market, on the other hand, is about hedge funds playing leverage and momentum, which exacerbates moves in either direction, said Sica.

“Gold remains vulnerable to the continuation of the asset rotation into stocks since most managers consider momentum to be the only rational way to generate returns in a market that is short on fundamentals,” he wrote in an email Monday. “The hedge funds are in the process of generating liquidity and embracing momentum. The hedge fund liquidations are not over.” he wrote in an email Monday.

The Fed’s comments suggesting more quantitative easing Wednesday could spark a bounce in gold, which would suck momentum traders back into the trade, he added. He’s purchased physical gold and hedged the position by buying put options, which rise when the underlying stock or commodity falls.

Gold Market Action

Spot gold prices fell 1.30% on Tuesday, to $1,377 an ounce.

On the stock market SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), tracking a tenth of an ounce of bullion, lost 1.66% to 132.88. It traded completely within the prior day’s wide trading range, referred to as an “inside day” for technical analysts. This indicates a lack of direction short-term.

Gold’s chart made a “key reversal bar” on Monday and may have formed a bullish double-bottom pattern with an upside price of $1630 an ounce, Tom McClellan, founder of “The McClellan Market Report” wrote in his client note Tuesday.

“For now, we have an oversold condition, a bottom retest, a key reversal, and a really extreme sentiment condition as shown by the COT (Commitment of Traders) Report data,” he wrote. “These are the makings of a great bottom.”

A correction is healthy and doesn’t suggest the end of a bull run, says Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management in Annapolis, Md. with $125 million in assets under management.

“It should also be noted from a broad view that it is not un usual for long-term bull markets to experience mid-cycle corrections,” he said in an email. “Gold itself famously fell 43% in 1975-1976, before rising eight fold in the next four years.”

How to Trade Profitably?

by Alvin

I have always wanting to find out what does it take to trade profitably. After all these years of reading, trading, investing, learning and what not, I have crystallized my experience and knowledge about trading profitably. There are many school of thoughts when it comes to this and also a lot of empty promises. I have captured the the necessary points you need to consider in this post. No fluff.

Trade or Invest?

If you want to create an income from the financial markets, then you should trade. If you want to grow your wealth, invest for the long term. You can pursue both objectives too if your capital allows. Either way, you cannot run away from the need to master your emotions. Investing is not a way for you to seek profits when you fail in trading, and vice versa. Trading is a frequent activity and with more trades done, you are likely to have numerous losses. Investing on the other hand, does not require frequent entries and exits, but the market will encourage you to buy when prices are high and sell when prices are low. If you cannot accept these risks and overcome the greed and fear in you, it is unlikely you can fulfill your financial objective/s.

For those who do not wish to stomach these volatility in their wealth, or do not wish to learn to overcome these psychological pains, they should choose investments with low volatility. Products like bonds and endowments, or strategy like Permanent Portfolio would suit them.

If you want to trade profitably, read on.

Finding that Edge

There are many gurus touting their strategies. Strategy is important and we need to find out if it really work. Do not listen to anyone until you test it yourself. And test it with real money because the psychological demands when your money is on the line is different from paper trading. Treat this as research cost. If you treat this as an income generating business, you must be willing to do such testing at a cost. Like any other research programs, you may not be able to find the edge at the very first instance, and you have to test another strategy from scratch. This is not easy for most people to accept.

The market is random but over a period of time, the sample size should be large enough to tell you if the strategy gives you an edge. It is akin to the casino operator, who is willing to accept occasional losses but over the long run, her small edge over the gamblers will ensure she will profit more than her losses. Hence, you must be willing to try out a strategy over a period of time, say 6 months to 1 year, to see if that edge exists. You cannot give up after 2 or 3 consecutive losses and denounce the strategy useless without giving it enough time to work itself out.

Losses must be smaller than Profits Cumulatively

A strategy is considered an edge if it has a positive expectancy or in other words, losses must be smaller than profits cumulatively. If you risk $100 to make $50, your strategy must give you at least 67% winning trades in order to be profitable over the long run. If you risk $100 to make $100, your strategy must give you 51% winning trades. If you risk $100 to make $200, your strategy must give you at least 34% winning trades.  Your job is to figure out, based on the risk-reward ratio your strategy prescribes, does the strategy have enough winning trades to prove it gives you an edge.

Evolve and Diversify in Strategies

The bad news is that the market is more complex than the casino. The casino creates a controlled environment which in other words, they set the rules and nothing can happen outside these rules. The financial market is not a controlled environment and uncertainties are rife and anything can happen. This means that while the casino operator’s edge will always be the same, your edge in the financial market may erode and become obsolete one day. In other words, your winning percentage may drop as market conditions change and it is no longer profitable to trade with this strategy. To counter this, you must be constantly finding new strategies while you continue to trade your edge currently. An even better way is to trade a few strategies at the same time. Diversifying in strategies will ensure you still make money even if one of your strategies stop working.

Overcoming your Psychological Barrier

As we mentioned earlier, trading and investing are activities which are emotionally difficult to carry out. Nobody can help you overcome it except yourself. Nobody likes losses. It is detrimental to your pocket, and even more so for your psychology. Once you have found an edge, the rest of the work is on your psychology. You must be able to  focus on following the strategy regardless of the losses (as long as win percentages are maintained in the long run). Trust me, the market will make it very difficult for you to follow your strategy. It will encourage you to doubt your edge by giving you consecutive losses. If you can overcome that, you will make money over the long run.

新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)

新股(IPO)上场:亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust)

文： IPO先生 （译：麦美莹） 

2013年05月22日

  新股

亚洲付费电视信托(Asian Pay Television Trust, 以下简称APTT)终于首次公开售股，招股价为0.97元（是0.92元至1.00元献售价的中位数）。你可以点击此处查看招股书。公开售股的截止日期是5月27日正午，并在5月29日下午2时开始交易。

售股详情如下：配售股为8亿6,600万个单位； 公开售股为7,000万个单位。市值(基于招股价)大约为14亿元。

一份新闻报告提到，这只股大约被3倍超额认购，由于这只股的规模很大，有这样的成绩相当不错。APTT总共发行9亿3,616万4,086个单位(每单位为0.97元)，而如果它实行超额配售的期权，总共发行的单位为10亿零800万4,086个单位。这是在亚洲上市的首个付费电视业务信托。坦白说，新加坡的业务信托制度应记一功，否则APTT也不能够在此上市，因为其他地方的规定是需要以盈利派作股息而不容许以现金流派作股息。因此，重资产(asset heavy)公司可以通过商业信托(还记得和记港口控股信托吗？)形式释放它们的资产。

APTT计划把其可分配现金流全部(100%)派作股息，而其业务是拥有、经营及维持在台湾、香港、日本及新加坡的管理完善及有钱赚的付费电视及宽频业务。因此，技术上而言，APTT有可能收购新加坡星和(Starhub)的付费电视及宽频服务(我不是说这将会发生)。

台湾宽频通讯集团

台湾宽频通讯集团(Taiwan Broadband Communications Group，以下简称“TBC”)是APTT即将收购的种子资产。TBC是台湾第三大电缆电视商家，截至2012年12月拥有15%的市场份额。TBC提供3种服务，包括：基本电缆电视；高级数码电缆电视；宽频服务。

特许经营区域及订户

截至2012年12月31日，TBC 拥有75万1,000名基本电缆电视用户；11万零324名高级用户及17万5,000名宽频用户。公司并没有提供“三合一服务”，即把手机、宽频及电缆电视捆绑在一起(就好像星和提供的配套服务)，但宽频与电缆电视“二合一服务”是有的。鉴于基础设施是属于“沉没成本(sunk cost)”，因此，公司的边际收益(marginal revenue)将会随着用户数目的增加而提高。好消息是公司的用户数目不断增加，但不大好的消息是每用户平均收入(ARPU)一直下跌。请参考以下的图表。

信托的企业架构

这个信托的内部组织并不简单，而我个人不大喜欢复杂的架构，但可能这是为了税项的问题。

资产负债表

IPO 投资者所付出的代价主要是支付22亿元的无形资产(intangible asset)。从招股书得悉，所谓的无形资产就是用来经营电缆电视的牌照，后者可以一个小数目每9年更新一次，而先决条件是公司没有违反牌照内的条件。这项资产不含摊销费用，因为它的有效期“直到永远”。IPO投资者必须对你所买的无形资产倍加留意，因为它是你取得回报的“承诺”。

财务表现

公司的财务表现并不乐观，因为它每年都一直在亏本。无论如何，公司每年都在派发股息，2012年所派发的款项达到8,900万元。如果我们把折旧及利息开支排除在外，它很可能是一家产生现金流的公司。以下是它的预估损益表。

每股盈利预估为0.0186元，意味着本益比达到可观的50倍。公司也对FY13及FY14作出预估，让投资者可以放心。

FY14 预估比较高，因为少了接近7,200万元的额外成本(extraordinary cost)，请看以下的现金流预估(cash flow projection)。

以下图表显示分派给单位持有者的对账。

企业价值/息税折旧及摊销前盈利(EV/EBITDA)

利用2012年预估资产负债表及损益表来计算，我依然不明白为何这家公司的本益比达到13倍这么高，我不大肯定是否算错了。看起来，这家公司是蛮贵的，因考虑到它主要是包含无形资产及很多银行债务。当利率一旦升高时，派息将会大受影响。

基石投资者
基石投资者占了公司大约32%股权，其中包括了传统基金 (保诚及利安资金) 及对冲基金 (Neuberger Berman、OZ Master Fund (与STX OSV 或 Vard相同)) 及量子基金(Soros Family)。我不确定是否我错过了一些只有这些基金才看到的优点。

派息收益率

APTT 的FY13及FY14预估派息率分别为7.5% 及 8.5% 。公司将会一年派息两次，第一次派息期是从上市当天至2013年6月30日 ，而在到期后的100天内，投资者将获派息。

我的看法
IPO投资者其实是从麦格理基建(Macquarie International infrastructure Fund，以下简称MIIF)的股东手中买入这些单位。MIIF目前是在新交所上市的公司并逐步把业务结束，董事局已决定把其所有余下资产出售及把基金退回给股东。

我并没有追踪MIIF，所以我不觉得它与保荐商麦格理(Macquarie)相关有什么值得“骄傲”，就是因为他们，MIIF的股东才落得如此下场。MIIF自从上市后表现一直落后。我并没有买MIIF的股票。MIIF的股东在问，他们应该拿现金或者是APPT的单位，而我反问他们，你们还愿意继续与这个保荐商打交道吗或者是想趁这个机会脱手？如果我是MIIF的股东，我会选择套现。

APTT上市后，MIIF还会持有不少其单位，而这个交易是让其离场的好机会。

发行大量单位
APTT 发行的单位(公众及配股)十分庞大，有兴趣的投资者相信也可以买得到。其所献售的7,000万股也是近期发售量较多的新股之一。如果你申请了供公众认购的部分，你成功的机会很大。我认为它可能会把新加坡的IPO窗口关上，因为所有资金或许会被它吸干。

我看到的优点
电缆电视及宽频的业务模式可为公司带来稳定的经常性收入，而在今时今日的社会里，看电视及上网已十分普及。

派息率增加，预期派息率将从FY13的7.5%上升至8.5%。

我的顾虑
台湾电视业的竞争很大，而价格战也很混乱，这将对派息带来影响。但我对台湾在这方面的管制不大清楚。

负债高的公司(67%)很容易受到加息的影响。目前的低息环境不会永远维持不变。

IPO投资者所买入的是无形资产(电缆电视牌照)，而所支付的本益比也相当高。

在上市后，保荐商只持有APTT的3%股权，但它会继续收取管理费及业绩费。我不肯定利率是否会按照比例作出调校。

发行量实在有点过多，相信每个人都会拿到他的份儿，但这意味着其上涨空间可能有限。

我认为对基层设施资产来说，FY13的7.5%派息率有点过低。投资于基础设施基金的私人投资者会要求较高的回报。上市之后，MIIF将会继续持有相当多的股权(如果所有MIIF股东选择现金，它将会持有5亿2,586万6,849个单位)，这将会对股价带来压力，因为MIIF需要脱售这些股票才可以从新交所除牌(我认为他们不会受锁定期限制，因为选择单位的投资者不会受锁定期限制)。

总结
我不知怎样为这家公司评级，就让投资者自行决定(像基石投资者)，相信他们知道怎样评估。我会给予“不大稳健评级”，但很不幸，我的经纪可能已经帮我买了一点。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date:22/05/13

Selecting Growth Stocks With FA

I attended a 4-day course by SGX Academy and would like to share part of the course that may be useful to you.
Trading Representative Productivity Enhancement Program

Selecting Growth Stocks With FA
Approach : Business/Industry Analysis -> Financial Statement Analysis -> Pricing Analysis -> Risk Analysis
Business/Industrial Analysis - Chairman's Statement
eg http://ezra.listedcompany.com/chairman.html
Financial Statement Analysis - ROA, ROE
Pricing Analysis - P/E
Risk Analysis -
Current Ratio = Current Asset/Current Liability > 1
Debt/Equity Ratio = Total Debt/Total Equity < 3
Interest Cover = EBIT/Interest Cost > 3

STI Components Commodities Counters

STI Components Commodities Counters
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颜子伟: 海峡时报指数很棒；但股市表现不怎样

海峡时报指数很棒；但股市表现不怎样
文： 颜子伟 （译：杨佳文） 2013年05月03日 展望
市场人士早前曾预测亚洲各大指数将陷入一片愁云惨雾之中，但一些主要指数如恒生指数和海峡时报指数的表现都不错，唯独具指标性的上证综合指数大幅下跌。

另一边厢，道琼斯工商指数在14,400点的水平回弹之后，继续迈向15,000点的心理关口。在此之前，道指进入了长达近两周的调整期，且一度出现可能进一步下跌的迹象，但投资者似乎仍相当乐观，因此道指目前应该能守在14,400点之上。

市场在这两周出现了什么变化吗？指数为何会上升？


热钱炒热市场

从基本面来看，市场其实并没有多大变化。

虽然股市出人意料地上涨，但各国的经济数据却不容乐观。事实上，欧洲的经济数据显示接下来的情况可能会更糟，因为欧洲的失业率上升至新高，就连德国的消费和商业信心也下跌了。

中国在去年取得7.8%的经济增长，而其总理李克强表示，中国必须进行经济转型，其经济增长将因此减缓。中国经济之前一直取得双位数增长，若今年的增幅低于2012年，市场人士可能会更加悲观。这可能是上证指数在五一黄金周之前大跌的原因。

在假日期间，中国宣布其制造业在4月份连续第二个月放缓，这将使人们更加确信中国经济的复苏势头可能已结束。

美国的情况也类似。无论经济是否有增长，美国投资者都一股脑地令道指冲高。基于美国联邦储备局每个月都会购买总值850亿美元的债券，谁会管究竟美国经济有没有增长，或者其印钞策略有没有创造足够的就业机会来保持增长呢？美国只需要一直开动印钞机就行了。

毫无疑问，股市目前的涨势是热钱促成的。由于大量资金以史无前例的规模涌入金融体系，美国和日本股市都大幅上涨，无论股市调整的幅度多小，都会吸引更多投资者买入。

蓝筹股大涨，其他股票表现欠佳

海指于4月25日突然上涨至3,320点以上，创下近来的高位，令人感到意外，因为新加坡不久前发布的经济数据欠佳。这轮涨势是由香港股市上涨所带动，原因是中国的黄金周对香港投资者而言似乎是一项好消息，因为他们终于能暂时喘息，免受持续疲弱的上海股市拖累。

当上海股市开市时，香港和新加坡股市将受到考验。到时我们就会知道，新、港股市是因为上海股市休市而暂时上涨，还是因为会有更多利好因素出现。

海指自2008年11月以来首次突破了3,400点，收复了其在金融危机期间的失地，目前距离其3,906点的历史高位还有约500点。

在这轮涨势中，上涨最多的都是大型蓝筹股，如星展集团(DBS Group Holdings)、大华银行(United Overseas Bank)和新电信(SingTel)，其中云顶新加坡(Genting Singapore PLC)的股价在它发布第一季业绩之前一度上涨至1.64元。海指的升幅大部分来自星展集团，其股价在5月2日上涨了将近1元，这种情况在银行股中相当罕见，原因可能是有传言指星展即将获准收购印尼金融银行(Bank Danamon)。

尽管海指劲升，股市整体的表现仍疲弱，海皇轮船(Neptune Orient Lines)、丰益国际(Wilmar International)、金光农业资源(Golden Agri-Resources)、印多福农业(Indofood Agri Resources)、来宝集团(Noble Group)和奥兰国际(Olam International)的表现与海指相比仍差了一大截。

自WE控股(WE Holdings)和安杰德(Ntegrator International)的股价在两个月前大幅下跌后，小型股个个兵败如山倒。澳西奴集团(Aussino Group)之前计划收购缅甸的油站业者，但遭新加坡交易所阻止，理由是其缅甸合作伙伴的信誉不佳。澳西奴的股价隔夜下跌了将近一半，其他小型股如万得国际(Matex International)和斯恩威(CNA Group)也大跌。

由此看来，基金经理目前只是因之前减少了所持有的新加坡股票而买入蓝筹股。也有可能是一些大户趁着上海股市休市趁机推高蓝筹股，从而在短期内大赚一笔。

在5月沽售离场？

道指在5月份的首个交易日就下跌了138点。当然，这不是“五月沽售离场(sell in May and go away)”的说法带来的影响，因为美国近来发布的经济数据都不太好。基于美国将于5月3日发布重要的就业报告，投资者可能都会选择在股市上涨后套取一些利润，以免就业数据有任何闪失。

历史学家会说，5月对看跌的投资者有利，因为股市下跌的可能性较大。所谓“一鸟在手不如二鸟在林”，看涨的投资者又何必为了赚多一点点钱而承担风险呢？

在下跌了138点后，道指可能会形成一个小双顶形态，其位于颈线的支持位为14,400点。假设道指在跌至14,400点后无法穿越14,800点，那我们应可判断短期头部(short-term top)已出现的可能性将增加。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯网
Publish date: 03/05/13