The most unbelievable stock in Singapore - Asiasons!

I can't help to still be bewildered how can a stock have such a chart pattern? Have been monitoring this stock since $0.30. The pros seems to have this stock cornered everyday, blocking the bid and ask price. Unbelievable work by the pros. Volume is so consistent. It is just a work of ART in Stock Trading! Bravo. The PICASSO of modern stock play...

Although it seems not to stop, I suggest be careful at $0.97-$1.

Rgds
Daniel
ww.danielloh.com

3 ways to avoid investment scams

By Alvin March 24, 20130 CommentsRead More →

Sunshine Empire. Profitable Plots. Assetton Fine Wine. Geneva Gold. The Gold Guarantee. The list of scams goes on and on…

Watch the following Mediacorp news report on The Gold Guarantee before we go on to discuss about avoiding scams.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=l84I4QGh6Wo

Scams always exist. It is able to because of human’s greed and ignorance. Humans like to get rich quick. It is much more appealing to earn a quick buck without doing anything as compared to putting time and effort to work for money. We can only help those who want to help themselves. Below are the 3 ways to avoid investment scams.

#1 Seek financial awareness and not more regulation

The solution to scams is not more government regulation. We want an environment that fosters entrepreneurship and not stifled with excessive regulations. As we encourage people to start businesses, there will bound to be unscrupulous businessmen.  Also, scams come in one form and another, so it is impossible to regulate everything in this world. Most of the time, they will create the latest fad or story that people can easily believe. For example, a lot of gold scams are initiated in recent years. This is because we had one of the longest gold bull run and it is easier to sell to people who wants to invest in gold. After all these gold scams get exposed and people shun gold, scammers will invent another fad to cheat. Regulation is tough. The only way to protect Singaporeans against scams is to increase their financial awareness. Equip them with the knowledge to discern the soundness of an investment. For example, gold is a negative yielding asset (means you pay to store gold). So you would not have trusted the scammer trying to tell you gold pay out monthly interest.

It is easier for scammers to sell you the gold dream with this performance

#2 Check MAS Investors’ Alert List

Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) keeps a list of suspicious businesses and publishes it online. You should always check if the company you heard about is on this list. Do not be too happy if it is not on the list because it can still be a scam. Use the next tip to help you.

#3 Identify the characteristics of a scam

Although the assets scammers sell are different, the way they sell them remains largely the same. So this is good news as we can identify the characteristics of a typical scam.

• Multi-level marketing or pyramid structure. You pay an enrollment fee or purchase a product to become a member. Subsequently, you can earn more money by recruiting more paying members.
• Success stories. The company may show you many success stories of how their members made a lot of money in a short time. Suddenly, your millionaire dream is within reach.
• Promises of high return. How high? To me, anything above an equity index fund annual returns of 8% is suspicious. It is very difficult to generate long term equity-like returns, especially for new start-ups.
• Difficult to figure out how the business make money and pay you that kind of returns. How much commission is the sales guy getting after selling the asset to you? How about all the middlemen who need to be paid? Do you think the deal can generate so much profits to pay you high returns?
• If it is too good to be true, it is too good to be true. Ask yourself why wouldn’t the rich people get to these good deals before the retail investors?

I hope the above can help you avoid scams in the future. Like what I said, it is not regulation that saves you from scams, it is financial awareness. I hope I have done my part.

OUE's REIT ambitions

Invest Stock - http://oceanforestcorp.com
Any expression of trading idea found on this website is for sharing only and does not constitute an invitation to trade or investment advice. Please read disclaimer page here.

OUE's REIT ambitions

Barely a fortnight after media company Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) announced it was exploring the creation of a real estate investment trust (REIT) to be listed on the Singapore Exchange, conglomerate Overseas Union Enterprise has confirmed news reports that it is also looking to spin off a REIT. 

OUE has reportedly chosen three banks for a planned $1 billion hospitality REIT to be listed in 2H2013. OUE's management had previously raised its intention to spin off its hotel assets in order to unlock value. Some of the assets that could make it in to the REIT are Mandarin Orchard and Crowne Plaza Changi Airport, both of which are directly owned. Two hotels in China – Meritus Mandarin Haikou and Meritus Shantou – are also directly held. 

In a report, Deutsche Bank notes that these four assets made up 48% of OUE's FY2012 revenue and 56% of its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation. The report also suggests potential pipeline assets for the REIT. OUE has said it is exploring options to convert the offices of DBS Tower 1 and one residential tower in Twin Peaks into serviced residences. An extension is also planned for Crowne Plaza Changi Airport.


Unlocking value  

What makes the REIT exciting for shareholders of OUE is that both Mandarin Orchard and Crowne Plaza Changi Airport are held at a historical cost of $364 million on OUE's books, says Deutsche Bank. Injecting these assets into a REIT would enable OUE to unlock a surplus of some $1.1 billion by the bank's estimates. 

Deutsche Bank values Mandarin Orchard at $1.2 billion and Crowne Plaza Changi Airport at $277 million. The two Singapore-focused hotel REITs CDL Hospitality Trusts and Far East Hospitality Trust are currently trading at about 1.2 times their book values. If OUE's REIT is listed at a similar valuation, and assuming OUE brings its leverage down to 40% and retains a 50% stake in the REIT, Deutsche Bank calculates the move would boost OUE's revalued net asset value by 20 cents a share or 5%. 

Shares of OUE, which had been ticking up through the month, climbed 4.3% to close at $3.13 yesterday on the confirmation of the potential spin-off. The activity mirrored market reaction to SPH's REIT plan, which sent SPH stock up 8.4% over the course of one week. 

In fact, the popularity of REITs over the past year looks set to create a fertile market for property firms to unlock asset values through trust listings. Chua Thian Poh, chairman of luxury property developer Ho Bee Investment, was quoted in a news report as saying that the company does not rule out launching a REIT in the next two years for its commercial properties.

Window of opportunity  

But can developers move fast enough to take advantage of what may be a narrowing window? Analysts are now sounding caution on these investments. OCBC Investment Research highlights the challenging industry environment that hospitality REITs are facing. The brokerage notes that in 4Q2012 CDL Hospitality Trusts, Far East Hospitality Trust and Ascott Residence Trust reported uninspiring numbers. This middling performance, they say, is likely to continue this year. "We have learnt that players in the local serviced residence industry believe that demand for 2013 will remain flat, with rates staying flat or declining," OCBC says. Between now and 2015, it sees hotel room supply outpacing demand. And, partially because of the rising Singapore dollar, the average length of stay per visitor is declining. The hospitality industry is also grappling with a tight labour force and high operating costs, which will put a squeeze on margins. 

Concerns are not limited to the hospitality sector alone. Maybank Kim Eng research analyst Ong Kian Lin says in a report today that investors would be wise to temper their exuberance for the local REITs. The so-called S-REITs have returned 5% year-to-date and 43% since end-2011, he says. But now, yield spreads against ten-year bonds are tightening and there has been downward pressure on rentals due to the slowing economic growth. He also sees a risk that asset prices may decline if monetary tightening is not done gradually enough. Japan, for instance, saw asset prices plunge after it raised interest rates sharply in 1989. 

Higher interest rates will also create refinancing difficulties. Johann Kenny, director of corporates at Fitch Ratings, notes that S-REITs have been increasing short-term debt with record-low interest rates. But they face refinancing risks when borrowing costs rise, and may be pushed to sell assets or shares to boost their funding, Kenny said in a Bloomberg interview. 

Moody's Investors Service analyst Jacintha Poh notes that S-REITs have been able to improve their financing flexibility and diversify their funding sources by increasingly opting for unsecured rather than secured funding. Moody's also thinks that low interest rates will persist for the next 12 to 18 months. But that does little to assure investors that REITs will continue to be the best place to put their capital this year. 

On the other hand, the property owners are looking increasingly attractive as they offload their assets and unlock value for shareholders.

Is Gold considered as investment or insurance?

Posted by Singapore Man of Leisure at 12:09 PM

It is quite interesting to listen to intellectual debates on whether Gold can be considered an investment (when it has no cash flow) or is it an insurance.

InvestmentI remember around 2005, I remember reading in the Sunday Times about how a Singaporean investor became a millionaire by investing in Gold. 

He had sunk in his life savings of SG$500,000 into Gold when it was US$250 an ounce a few years back. When his story was published, Gold had doubled to US$500 an ounce. Making him a millionaire!

And he's not selling! He's convinced Gold will double again to $1,000 an ounce in the next few years.

Hey! He was right again!!! If had resisted the urge to sell, he is doing very nicely with Gold around US$1,600 an ounce today. Even with the appreciation of the SGD against USD.

For this investor, he already had the answer to the question. More importantly, he profited from his conviction.

Gold had outperformed STI from 2005 t0 2012 - yes, Gold beat low cost passive indexing even with no cash flows.

Caveat! Those who bought Gold below US$1,000 and those who bought Gold near the recent top at US$1,900 an ounce would have different responses and explanations to Gold prices today.

It goes to show with all investments (equities, property, commodities, etc), getting the semantics right is not as important as getting this question right: 

Are you early or are you late to the game?


Insurance 
Imagine you have SG$200,000 invested in a low cost passive ETF of STI in 2007/08.

You had the harrowing experience of seeing your "investment" got sliced into half at the lows during March 2009.

4 years just blew by just like that! And now you have recovered all your "invested" money. You did not make any money, but then you did not "lose" any money either. Or so you think.

SG$200,000 4 years ago can buy that stylo car you've always wanted. To  buy the same car now, you most probably need to take out an additional loan...

The same SG$200,000 4 years ago is around 20% deposit for the million dollar condo you are eyeing. Now you are kicking your idiot decision to invest in the stupid ETF instead of that condo.The condo is now valued at....

But if you had "invested" the same SG$200,000 in the STI ETF anytime during 2009, equities turned out not so bad as an "insurance" against lost of purchasing power 4 years later- just likeGold.

As some have discovered after buying insurance, you can overpay for the same benefits and protection! 

A variation of the above italics on investment:

Timing is everything!        

Traders' view on Gold
I prefer to use a Trader's view on Gold as it's more actionable, provides greater clarity, and less prone to distractions.

When you buy Gold, you are shorting USD.

When you sell Gold, you are long USD.

It's just this simple!

OK, maybe not so simple.  Remember that your profits for Gold is in USD. It will be reduced/or enhanced by the currency exchange movements between USD/SGD.

If you are bullish on Gold, a better trade/investment could be to long Gold in JPY terms:

You buy a Gold ETF and you buy an equal amount in a currency ETF that shorts JPY.
  
Welcome to the world of pairs trading! 

A triple digit fall in DOW at noon US time

Now Dow is just 100 points down at noon time. If it closes today like this now, it will be DOW first triple digit decline for near to a month. In fact, I have been looking forward to a decline of some degree this or next month. So far, this month has proven to be a glorious month for the DOW because of the good economical reports released at the beginning of the month.

In fact, I am very clean with no positions in the stock market now. Somehow I feel uneasy going into the US or local market purchasing stocks as I know the risk is still there. I am just putting my funds into commodities now as I do not want a stock market reversal to hurt my positions.

This market sure needs a rest, and I probably urge you to take profit on your short term bullish positions.

Why rowsley and other penny stocks fall - Trading curb

http://kissinvesting.blogspot.sg/2013/03/why-rowsley-and-other-penny-stocks-fall.html

Its scary to see rowsley drop 20+% in one day when its one of the popular stock of the period..

What exactly happened? Trading curb.

According to the business times:
SOME six weeks ago, this column warned of the strong likelihood that with the fever in penny stock punting threatening to boil over dangerously, local broking houses faced with rising credit risks or over-exposure to a huge speculative bubble would surely act to protect themselves by imposing trading curbs on many of the stocks.

This has now occurred - over the past few days, at least one large broker is said to have slapped limits on trading on the entire penny sector. Precise details are not known but it is thought that clients' exposure to each non-marginable stock is now limited to $50-100,000 depending on trading limits, and $300,000 in total.

Whatever the specifics, the effect has been painful - segment leader Rowsley Holdings, for example, has crashed from 51 cents just over a week ago to 39.5 cents now - a loss of 23 per cent that is bound to hurt those caught at the top when volume was much larger than now. Similarly, many other low-priced issues like SingHaiyi and WE Holdings that had been speculatively ramped up in the recent penny push have also seen their shares tumble in recent days, either as a direct consequence of trading restrictions or because of sympathetic selling from curbs on other stocks.

The point stressed in that earlier column was that while it is fine for houses to look after their own interests, the announcement of trading curbs has to be better managed as it is a material, market-moving development that could in theory benefit parties who had advance knowledge of their introduction.

We wrote then: "Since trading curbs have the potential to influence sentiment and affect many stocks simultaneously, it would ... be a good idea to figure out how best to handle such announcements. They are, after all, as material as company announcements but are thus far unregulated."

As it stands now, houses are free to slap curbs on trading whenever they see fit, and the announcement of such measures often in the middle of trading tends to catch the market by surprise, leading to panic selling and widespread speculation as to what these curbs are and which stocks might be affected.

The market's frontline regulator, the Singapore Exchange (SGX), must therefore take the initiative and examine ways of levelling the playing field in such instances.

Possibly the best way to accomplish this is for houses contemplating curbs to be required to first inform SGX of their intention to introduce such measures. Once this is done, the information can be disseminated to the public only after trading has ended for that day either via SMS notification to clients or postings on SGX's and the broker's websites, or both.

Announcements have to be clear and concise, and must include details of exactly what measures are to be imposed and which stocks are involved. There should be no room for ambiguity, and at the same time, there should be an estimate of the duration for which the restrictions are to remain in place.

In short, the means of communicating curbs must ensure as far as possible that everyone receives notification at the same time and that no parties are in a position to profit unfairly from advance knowledge.

Own opinion:
Many people are unaware of the existence of such trading curbs and its is unfair to the retail investors...

I believe More can be done to regulate the broker houses.. Or give prior warning to prevent panic selling.. 

大摩估2015年恒指見5萬點

大摩估2015年恒指見5萬點

2013年3月20日
【明報專訊】環球市場對塞浦路斯銀行危機的憂慮消退，昨天亞洲股市普遍反彈，但港股反彈乏力，收市仍跌41點，收報22,041點，成交683億元。港股疲不能興，但摩根士丹利發出的報告，列4大原因，估恒指至2015年底會升至50,000點，較目前升1.2倍。

指港股目前市盈率極偏低

大摩分析員Jonathan Garner在報告中列出的4大原因包括﹕

1.發達國超寬鬆貨幣加上中國及環球經濟恢復增長。

2.港股過往每隔6至8年會升至高點(1973、1981、1987、1994、2000、2007年)，50,000點較上次高位高出58％，符合以往的模式。


3.目前市盈率11倍極偏低，若回歸平均數加上3年後的預測，可見50000點。

4.QDII擴充加上港府壓樓市會令資金由樓市轉投股市。

內銀股昨續瀉 濠賭頁岩氣股炒上

港股連續3天下跌，重磅股匯控(0005)未有受到阿根廷稅務局控告其子公司，共謀隱匿銀行帳戶助私人企業逃稅及洗錢的消息影響，全日收報84.45元，升0.36%。

人民銀行副行長劉士余曾對外暗示，國有資本或減持國有銀行股權，消息致內地銀行股未能夠止瀉。資金反而轉馬炒濠賭股及頁岩氣概念股。花旗發表報告指出，澳門3月首17日的博彩收入達176億澳門元，日均11.03億元。該行將博彩收入預測，由原先的300億提高至305億元，按年增長22%。

雖然花旗估計金沙中國(1928)的市場佔有率下跌1.7個百分點至19.7%，股價升幅卻冠絕同行，達5％。

港股反彈乏力 分析員料下試21700

內地有報道指出，國土資源部及能源部相關官員指，國家扶持頁岩氣產業的政策正制訂中，刺激頁岩氣概念股股價炒高(表)。晉裕集團投資研究部聯席董事林偉雄指出，塞浦路斯在周四復市及美國議息結果前，投資者表現得欠積極。短期內港股向下機會較大，有望低見21700點。

BakerTech 20/3/2013

Baker in range mode.  

generalee still in 10v20 trend. if u risk taker, can take small punt and wait for that cheong 

(altho i dontch knw which direction)..hehhh

Mega-IPO Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Makes A Splash

08 MARCH 2013
Mega-IPO Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust Makes A Splash
By Jade Lee

A big household name indeed attracts a great deal of attention. For the past few weeks, many investors were attracted to the $1.7 billion listing of Temasek-linked Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MGCCT). And not surprising to the market, the public tranche of initial public offering (IPO) was over-subscribed by nine times, signalling market watchers’ affinity towards China-focused real estate investment trust (REIT), despite the cancellation of the Dynasty REIT listing in October last year.

Commitments from institutional investors were just as impressive. The mega-listing managed to secure a total of 953.5 million units, or 55 percent of the 1.7 billion shares from 11 corner stone investors, who agreed not to sell the shares until the end of its lock-up period. Having stellar names such as AIA Group, CBRE Group, Henderson Global Investors and Morgan Stanley as cornerstones, investor sentiments would certainly be boosted.


So, What Can Investors Expect?

MGCCT’s current portfolio is worth some $4.3 billion and only comprises of two retail and office developments in the prime areas in Hong Kong and China (Festival Walk in Kowloon area and Gateway Plaza in Beijing). Touted as the best-in-class commercial properties in the regions, both buildings have an occupancy rate of over 98 percent and WALE (weighted average lease expiry) by gross rental income of 2.4 years. The manager has also projected rental reversions of 14.4 percent and 14.9 percent for Festival Walk and 65.4 percent and 38.9 percent for Gateway Plaza for leases expiring in FY14 and FY15 respectively.

In the short to medium term, the manager of the REIT said it may purchase another five assets which are located in Xi’an, Shanghai and Foshan. These assets, which have the potential to be worth up to $3 billion, are said to match MGCCT’s investment mandate and are expected to be ready after one to five years.

Interesting enough, MGCCT’s eccentric management fee structure could be an attraction that is not to be missed by investors. Going against the norm of maintaining assets’ growth rather than unitholders’ interest in the Singapore REIT sector, MGCCT’s base fees are pegged to distribution income and distribution per unit (DPU) growth rather than assets under management and net property income. With the REIT manager now enticed to grow distribution income and DPU, this could essentially align manager’s interest with investors’.

Furthermore, MGCCT’s comparative yield to other listed China-based landlords could be another pull factor for investors that are gorging on high-yield stocks. With projected yields of 5.6 percent in FY14 and 6.1 percent for FY15, this has compared well with other REITs such as CapitaRetail China Trust (FY12: 5.5 percent) and Fortune REIT (FY12: 4.8 percent). While there is a fair share of anxiety out there about MGCCT’s high gearing ratio of 43 percent, a comforting note given by MGCCT is that the interest used to pay on the loan is actually acting as a tax shield, which ultimately benefits the trust by about $6 million a year. The trust further added that the gearing will not go beyond 45 percent.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 08/03/13

Sparrow's Golden Roos for Surviving the Market

Sparrow's Golden Roos for Surviving the Market

Here are some golden rule over the years I follow, if you want can take a look. 

You can agree or no up to you. Ebery body trade different. It is up to you to believe or experient them yourselv to understand what i say.

 1) The Market is always there. It won't fly away and neber come back. So, please do yourselv a chocolate flavor , NO NEED to KAN CHEONG in the market. Wait for guud opportuunity to trade. Foe xxamper, no need to chase after stock when they cheong. Like that you will get caught with your underware down and a lousy price. and no need to panic if stock lao sai a bit in a tok kong trend (strong trend). 

 2) When got kopi and you tink enuf alredy, take. Money in pocket is alway best and smell nice than parfum. This one apply to 10v20 trend strategy as well as punting for quick kopi lui.Never give your profit back to Mr Market. 

 3) If you are a head-less mosquitoe absolutly no idea which direction to go, then you alway follow the trend  That is the best you can do alredy. Use 100/200 , 10v20 to see trends. Dis one is my method to see trend. You can use other methods. OR you dontch trade at all if u are notch confident.

 4) Never take your profit bit by bit. This is rather s2pig way to trade and many peepur dont know. Sparrow will tell you, imagine you got profit alredy, you take half and let the rest continue. then market go the other direction, your profit gone. you earn oni half of what you earn if you have just taken them all. Who to blame? You bang your head squeeze your balls lorrr.. See Rule 1 again. The Market is alway there. make your kopi lui agian some other time by waiting for that lao sai again. So TAKE ALL YOUR PROFITS in 1 shot. That way oso you dont PAP (pay __ pay ) more commision.

 5) Never go long at resistant or short at suppork. My method use 100/200 as supork and resistnat (10v20 so). You can oso ouse other method like looking at the highest point and lowest point , or use other indicators. But the idea is all the sama sama. If you short at supprk , price may get supprk and you dont have guud reward alredy. So neber take the resistant and suppork levers that your indicator tell you for granted. they are beri powderful, often use by BB oso. 

 6) Alway have cut loss and never shift your cut loss lever. If you set a cut loss leow, then for hagen daz sake dont shift it leow. What for shift it right? If you do, means you are EMO. like this fellow below but without the "l" hehhh. 

if you are EMO, you better dont' trade. Go fly a kite is better. it is much cheaper to fly kite and you can sometime see chio bus as well. Oso neber do average down on losing punts. Unless u sibei loaded with $ dontch knw where to spend. Why notch u consider gib Sparrow some.. ? hehhh

  7) Never trade according what the news say. Sparrow dint say cannot read news. Read news just for entertainment but dont use what the news say (analyst etc) to make your trade. For xxamper, you see guud news today, then you go trade. Dont be so s2pig. When the news reach you, you are alredy too late. That why you will alway be the one chasing stock. Look at your chart , your chart is your best buddy fighting Mr Market with you. Use him like you know how to use guud toilet paper. Learn to buy stock before it cheong then you RIP the most reward.

 8) No need to make big fuss over weather you are trader or investor or you swing like a monkey or position yourselv like a statue or you trade in the day and not at night. They are all the same. Beautiful words created to confuse and make you blur like sotong. Gib you xxamper, if you are position trader keep stock for weeks one, if tomorw big lao sai, you will cut or not? you still think you are position trader? In the end it is how price move that will determine what type you are. Bruce Lee say "Be water my friend". So be water lorrr.. bend with the price.

 All want to make money oni. Who doesn;t? you tell me one person who doesn't want to make money, i chop. (don't get wrong idea, i haven't say finish chop what hehhh) . You are investor if you hooldd for long term. You sure or not? I tell you you are wrong. Tomorrrwo if got another lehman brother on your stock you will still cut loss. You think you will still hold? if you still hold, you are lousy investor, don't know what you are doing. Better don't wast hard earn money investing. same for what terms like position , swing trade, day trade...all are irrevelant. So if you are still finding out for yourselv which style you are, dont la. don't waste time. 

You trade on a guud chance, put a cut loss, take your kopi, that's it.

9) No one can tell you exctly what will happen in the future unless he is the mr market himself. So for your stomach's sake, no need to listen to bull crabs that give you what projection laaa, what forecast laaa..you can read them for your selv amusement but dont use them as entry points for your trade. You will still have to look at your chart to decide becorse if BB want to move stock, who care about what this guy predict or what that guy forecast? Remember Rule 7. Trust your buddy. ( Same for craps like using Feng sui or bratley astronomy etc that have no basis at all.  ). That mean you oso cannot trust Sparrow simple becorse he cannot tell the future. Alway do your own homework first.

 10) Wahh see, no indicators no nothing dont need to use anything i can oso make kopi.So now you belive and s2pigly go pay hard earn kopi lui to learn how to do it , while you can do it for free, if you kut lak tam po (be hardworking a bit). This guy just read mind on xmas eve. While we alredy read mind 2 weeks ago. This is not to hao lian or what, but just to tell you that no need to be so dazzle by things like no need indicators bleee blaha blee blah. If you use your indicator like how you brush teeth ebery day, you can oso make kopi. I showed you many xxamper calls alredy. You have seen for yourselv oso. And its all FREE!!

11) The stock market is the oni place you cannot get love. Please laaa dont love a stock. The stock wont love you back. Last time you love Miss Sakari, now she married alredy. She dont love you at all. Why waste time. Remembr rule 8, investor who dont know Rule 6 will now oso terng kor. My advice neber hold on to stock too long. Got kopi take. All stock are the same. They aer only price, or what you call numbers! You tell me "dont be ridiculous i dont belive you". Well you open your Chartnexus and open all the stock you like. What do you see? You just see stock with diffelent price/numbers, some $1.18, some $3.70, some $0.30 and they are ALL DOING THE SAME THING, they are all going ki lo, ki lo, buay ki buay lo (up and down and ranging). 

 12) Mr Market is beri simper, can walk 3 ways oni. Up, down and oso walk like a crab.you can neber be more rugi buying your stock at a down than buying at a up. Therefore when trading the market, you have to use common sense laaaa. buy at a down so that you got more reward for a cheong. After a tua lao sai, sure you must eat, eat and eat, until the next lao sai correct? How you buy at a down? simple, you either feel with the indicators (punt) or you wait for confirm (like your blue bars at supprk). Note this rule similar to rule 5

 13) Indicators can help you , but put too much can tua ler ker hor lan (bring you to holland). Please laaaa its not quantity that count, but quality of interpreatation of your chart. You seen 10v20 and how it work. Only 2 MA can help you trade profitabee  leow. If you guud, no need oso can laaa.. but most newbee no experience yet. So dont put too many ok.

 14) When you hear company want to issue rights, run road fast. Remember Rule 11. Dis one FA gurus may disagree but i dont really care. Once got rights issue most probabee mean company is in shit-hole alredy. Sparrow advise if you use FA, then have no feeling for stocks that are in shit. Just run.

 15) If you want to trade, then you must be a loser. If you lose , dont kpkb. Losing is a fact of trading. while you can try ebery means not to lose, the fat is losing you cannot escaape. if you cant even lose $100 i think you better take your kids out for happy meals better.

 16) Some peepur belive in FA. I dont. ( and dis one ultimately oso subjective). Simply becors of things like takeovers, rights issue etc and Rule 9. You neglect your wife or ger friend and spend your nights calculating PE laaa ROA laaa , cash flow laaa, etc but in the end you are just using history data oni to forecast future earnings which you oso dont know will happen or not. (One thing may happen is your wife may run road lorrr hehhh. Joke laaa dont take seriouslee). Even last time a guud company like Cosco from 8 dolar can become 80cent. You say the company is guud base on FA, but look what price is it now? That why, i only belive in what my buddy tell me. You say the company is worth $X. I tell you the company oni worth what you see on the chart right now. 

17) When you lose kopi lui, you alway blame yourselv and no one else. Yes correct, YOU are the culprit for your own death. RIP. dont blame your parents, your ger-friend, your wife or your pet dog. YOU are the one to blame ONI. 

 18) When you take kopi lui alredy, no need to kao pey kao bu (complain) about taking kopi early. There simply no such think as "sell too early". I ask you laaa if you sell alredy price lao sai, you will tell yourselv "heng ah", right? if not, den if price cheong further you will of corse say "sell too early" lorrr. Den I ask you, you can tell future are? if you can, i will not trade, i pay you money better. So forget abot this term alredy. This is oso help you live longer. You tell yourselv at least you got kopi, others may not have. You will look for other stocks to punt after that. Seriouslee your live is so short you have no time to kpkb about this.

 19) Like Rule 13, listening to too many gulus and expert on their opinion and view will oso tua ler ke hor lan.  Mr A or Mr B? both are gulus in their own ways, both are reputable. But this time , they give diffelent views. How ? You want to listen to who ? Then you join forum or group talk about stocks. So many gulus oso talking about 1 stock. So many views, draw here draw there. Now you become more sotong. Remember if you become like that, alway remember Rule 7. Sparrow tell you , only the price of the stock (and sometime the vol) will tell you the tooth. Nothing else really matter.

 20) Trading shud be fun, not stressfooll. I often see a lot peepur ask here ask there on stocks, weather tmorow will cheong some more, or tomorw will lao sai or notch. Oso beri the kan cheong. Its normal for new bird to trading to feel dis way. but for peepur who play market for quite sometime leow shud not feel dis way alredy. Trading shud be fun , dontch be too stress. That why, i notch greedy, see enuf for myselv , take kopi and enjoy. come back another day. This is how i survive the market ebery day.

21) Alway stick to and folow your stragety (that is working). Dontch care where you are, what time is it. You can use sticky notes stick to your laptop, or follw strategy go to toilet or when you sleep you can dream of it. Alway stick and follow your trading strategy like mad dog.! Dontch care what peepur say , Dontch care what news say. Just folow it, eberytime!

22) Dontch listen to analyst buy, sell, target calls from broker hiouse. Comon laaaa if thy relly that guud why ebery time cannotch make it? what method they use to make calls? who are they just fresh grad or what? so many diffelent brokergea house who to listen to? gona concern wif so many question i might as well trade invset for myselv. integrnet gotch many article on stock analyust, go and see what peepur say

 23) Follow the rules you make. Write so many rules, donch follow oso no use. So try your best to follow them all. 

Posted by Sparrow at 12/26/2012 09:26:00 pm 

Investing in Reits: there's no free lunch

By Bobby Jayaraman
13 March 2013
Business Times Singapore

Investors should check that Reit fundamentals are sound and the pricing reasonable

REITS are all the rage now. It seems there is an initial public offering (IPO) for a new Reit/business trust every other month, the latest one being that of Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MGCCT), which, predictably, had a strong debut in SGX last week.

Amid this euphoria, it is easy for investors to get caught up with yield investing without doing their homework and understanding fully what they are investing in.

My intent here is to take a critical look at this new IPO and raise some fundamental questions for the investor to think about.

Sponsor motivation

First off, it should be noted that MGCCT is not a typical Reit, in the sense that it consists of just two mixed use assets - Festival Walk, a mall in Hong Kong with some office space, and Gateway Plaza, an office building in Beijing with some retail space.

From an investor's perspective, it is really just one asset - Festival Walk, which makes up 75 per cent of the asset value and gross revenue of the Reit. One cannot help but wonder why Mapletree had to go through the trouble of listing a Reit just to sell a single large asset.

The implication for investors is that their fortunes are tied to the fate of Festival Walk. Given such a high concentration risk, investors had better be sure that they have a good sense of the future earning power of this mall - or they could be in for some nasty surprises down the road.

Festival Walk was a rather quick flip by Mapletree. It had bought it from Swire Pacific, one of Hong Kong's leading conglomerates, in July 2011 for HK$18.8 billion (S$3 billion) and injected it into MGCCT 18 months later for around HK$20.7 billion, making a profit of around 10 per cent.

It fared much better with Gateway Plaza, its office property which was acquired by Mapletree India China Fund in February 2010 from a Hong Kong-listed Reit for 2.9 billion yuan (S$580 million) and injected it into MGCCT for five billion yuan. This was a more than 70 per cent gain in three years.

Gateway Plaza is now the subject of a lawsuit detailed in the prospectus. As it is, Reit investors have to face enough uncertainties regarding the property cycle, they can surely do without the added headache of a lawsuit.

Anyway, the sponsor has certainly made good returns on these assets. What about investors buying into MGCCT at IPO levels? Will they be rewarded over the medium-long term?

Quality of assets

To understand this better, let us first dig a bit deeper into the quality of the assets, that is, the long-term earning power of an asset under different economic conditions.

Let us start with Festival Walk, a mall built in 1998 in an upscale suburb of Kowloon. This asset is slightly larger than Ion Orchard, well connected and upscale. It is patronised mostly by local shoppers, with tourists making up only 18 per cent of sales last year, said the prospectus.

The shops there include luxury brands such as Rolex, Bally, Piaget and Armani. Investors would thus need to be convinced of the attractiveness of such a positioning, in which the mall will not benefit much from the onslaught of millions of mainland Chinese tourists who go to malls in the tourist areas of Central or Tsim Sha Tsui; the earnings of Festival Walk will also not be as stable as those of suburban "necessity malls" owned by Link Reit (a Hong Kong-listed Reit).

How has the mall performed over the years? The prospectus says its revenues have been resilient through economic cycles. A graph showing Festival Walk's gross revenue (without citing a source for the data) and retail sales growth since 1999 supports this.

However, the manager, citing a host of reasons, is unable to provide detailed historical statements of financial performance for the past three years as mandated by SGX.

An investor is free to draw his own conclusions. I would personally like to see verifiable hard data on net property income (NPI), rather than high-level gross revenue and sales numbers, which can be increased in a variety of ways without benefiting the bottom line, such as by spending heavily on marketing and promotion to attract tenants.

Another important point to note is that the mall's lease expires in 2047, or in just another 34 years, similar to that of many industrial properties in Singapore. Investors need to form a view on whether the dividends are in fact part capital repayment.

Finally, the mall was built in 1998, and would need to be refurbished in a major way if it is to remain competitive with newer centres. This would require heavy capital expenditure.

Let us move on to Gateway Plaza in Beijing. The office building is in a good location with high-quality tenants, but with no direct access to a subway station. The nearest one is a 700m walk away - quite a disadvantage for a prime office building, in my view.

The office sector in general is highly volatile and the Beijing office sector more than bears this out.

After hitting a trough in 2009, office rents in Beijing have doubled over the past three years. They are now the third highest in Asia after Hong Kong and Tokyo, and command close to a 50 per cent premium over Shanghai.

The Beijing office market today seems to show similarities to the roaring early 2008 Singapore office market. The problem is that office rentals cannot go sky-high. Today's cost-focused companies show great resistance to paying high rentals and have the option of moving to less centralised locations. Sooner or later, supply comes up to match, and frequently exceed, demand.

Given these realities, investors need to decide what the upside is in this stage of the office cycle. The sponsor certainly got the timing right buying in during early 2010, just when the market was turning, and selling after rentals had doubled. Investors hoping for increased rentals and capital gains from these levels may not be as fortunate.

Gateway Plaza is also on a short lease, with just 40 years remaining.

Leverage

Leverage plays a key role in determining a Reit's level of risk, distribution yield and valuation.

As at IPO, MGCCT had S$4.3 billion in assets (the combined valuation of Festival Walk and Gateway Plaza) and S$1.78 billion in debt (net of S$132 million in cash). That gives it a gearing of close to 42 per cent.

Given the reliance of the Reit on cash flows from mostly one asset and currency risk - the Hong Kong dollar has depreciated close to 20 per cent against the Singapore dollar in the past three years - the gearing looks to be on the higher side.

As a comparison, S-Reits have no currency risk, a more diversified pool of assets and a track record going back several years. As at end December last year, CMT had a gearing of 36.7 per cent; CCT's gearing was 30.1 per cent, and FCT's, 30.1 per cent.

In today's environment of ample and low cost funding, debt levels have taken a back seat to dividend yields, but smart Reit investors would do well to remember that the credit taps are extremely volatile and Reits that are dependent on high debt levels and low cost funding to generate returns will pay heavily when the credit cycle turns against them.

Valuations

Festival Walk and Gateway Plaza have been injected into the Reit at S$4.3 billion. However, there is not much information in the 700-page prospectus on the basis for these numbers.

The valuation reports mention that they use an income capitalisation approach and discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to value the assets. There are also plenty of standard clauses and disclaimers in the report, but important information such as the capitalisation rates used, the year for which net income is capitalised and the discount rate used for DCF valuations is missing.

More than a decade ago, Singapore's first Reit CMT put out a 300-page IPO prospectus including this information clearly in a table. It looks like while the IPO prospectuses have been gaining bulk over the years, the quality of meaningful information is decreasing.

Going through the prospectus, it appears that the key operating number is the "projection year 13/14" NPI of S$185.7 million. Dividing this NPI by the asset valuation of S$4.3 billion gives us a property yield of 4.3 per cent. The distribution yield of 5.6 per cent at IPO price is higher than the property yield due to the 42 per cent leverage used.

Over the past couple of years, commercial property cap rates have been compressing all over Asia, with top retail spaces in Hong Kong even trading at cap rates of less than 2.5 per cent.

Investors, however, need to decide whether today's benign interest rate and credit environment will continue and if such levels of valuation provide a sufficient margin of safety over the long term.

The sponsor makes some optimistic projections on rental increases in the coming years without providing a clear rationale.

Investors would do well to test the reality of these projections under conservative scenarios.

Management fee structure

One of the major attractions of MGCCT, going by the press coverage, is the DPU-based fee model rather than the traditional asset based fee structure that most S-Reits use.

There are certainly major drawbacks to an asset based fee model that a DPU-based model avoids. However, it does not mean that a DPU-based fee model completely aligns management and unit holder interests. For starters, investors should keep a close eye on the leverage and debt maturities. Why?

In today's credit environment, one can borrow at around 2 per cent and make even a 3 per cent cap rate acquisition yield accretive, thereby increasing DPUs and generating higher fees for the Reit manager. The increased DPUs for the investor, however, come at the expense of higher leverage. (MAS rules allow up to 60 per cent gearing if a credit rating is disclosed.)

This method gets even more attractive if short-term debt is used instead of long-term debt due to its much lower cost. Though this would mean having to frequently roll over debt.

Any Reit that employs such methods can earn high fees through increasing DPUs, but set itself up for disaster owing to a deteriorating capital structure.

This is not to suggest that MGCCT or other Reits will behave in such a way. The point is that no fee structure is fool-proof. Ultimately, whether a Reit ends up creating long-term value for unit holders depends on the quality and integrity of its manager.

Conclusion

Investing in Reits is no different from investing in any other asset class. The fundamentals need to be sound and the pricing should be reasonable. Investors get a relatively high yield from Reits because they take on the asset price risk.

The writer is a private investor and author of the local bestseller 'Building wealth through Reits'. He can be reached at jbobby@frunzeinvestments.com

Thai Beverage to join ST Index after Quarterly Review

Singapore, Mar 7, 2013 - (ACN Newswire) - Singapore Press Holdings Limited (SPH), Singapore Exchange (SGX) and FTSE Group (FTSE) announced today that Thai Beverage will replace IHH Healthcare as a constituent of the Straits Times Index (STI) following the conclusion of the half-yearly review.

The STI reserve list, comprising the five highest ranking non-constituents of the STI by market capitalisation, will be (in order of size) Hutchison Port Holdings Trust, Keppel Land, Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust, UOL Group and CapitaCommercial Trust. Companies in the reserve list will replace any constituents that become ineligible as a result of corporate actions before the next review.

The STI is widely followed by investors as the benchmark for the Singapore market and is used as the basis of a range of financial products including Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), futures, warrants and other derivatives.

Several changes were made to other indices in the FTSE ST Index Series including the FTSE ST Maritime and FTSE ST Catalist indices. In the FTSE ST China Top Index, China Minzhong Food Corporation will replace China Aviation Oil Singapore Corporation. Full details of all deletions and additions can be found under the Index Reviews section at www.ftse.com/st.

In September 2012, the FTSE ST Index Advisory Committee approved the introduction of actual free float (rounded up to the next 1%) in the FTSE ST Index Series to limit unnecessary turnover. This change will take effective on the same date of the review changes.

All changes from this review will take effect from the start of trading on 18 March 2013. The next review is scheduled for 6 June 2013.

The indices are reviewed quarterly by the independent FTSE ST Index Advisory Committee, in accordance with the index ground rules. The FTSE ST methodology ensures the indices accurately represent the investable universe for benchmarking purposes and can be easily replicated as the basis of index-linked products.

For more information about the STI and FTSE ST Index Series including index ground rules, please visit www.ftse.com/st.

STI Constituents:

CapitaLand Ltd

CapitaMall Trust

CapitaMalls Asia Ltd

City Developments Ltd

ComfortDelgro Corp Ltd

DBS Group Holdings Ltd

Fraser and Neave Ltd

Genting Singapore PLC

Global Logistic Properties Ltd

Golden Agri-Resources Ltd

Hongkong Land Holdings Ltd

Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd

Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd

Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd

Keppel Corp Ltd

Noble Group Ltd

Olam International Ltd

Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp Ltd

SembCorp Industries Ltd

SembCorp Marine Ltd

SIA Engineering Co Ltd

Singapore Airlines Ltd

Singapore Exchange Ltd

Singapore Press Holdings Ltd

Singapore Technologies Engineering Ltd

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd

Starhub Ltd

Thai Beverage PCL

United Overseas Bank Ltd

Wilmar International Ltd

Most of the Singapore Stocks have dropped!

Playing local singapore stocks have proved to be a hard task recently. So many stocks have drop from the high. I think you would agree with me that Most of the Big Cap, Mid cap and Penny stocks suffered losses although the index is still near its high.

An example of some popular stocks falling from the high:

Big Cap:
1) Wilmar 3.92 to 3.33
2) Semb Corp 5.59 to 5.18
3) Semb Mar 4.87 to 4.48

Mid Cap:
1)Yoma: 0.925 to 0.750
2) Tat Hong: 1.60 to 1.48
3) Rotary: 0.615 to 0.475
4) Genting: 1.64 to 1.51

Penny Stocks: (A Disaster recently, some dropped by more than half)
1) We holdings: 0.205 to 0.067
2) Ntegrator: 0.151 to 0.086
3) Magnus: 0.095 to 0.048

In all our previous articles in Feb and Mar, we consistently advise everyone to cut down on existing positions because we think the risk is higher now. We did say that be careful of March and Early April as we think it might start to fall.

One of our past articles:
http://www.danielloh.com/2013/02/fantastic-jan-followed-by-sideways-feb.html

In February on radio station FM958, we did mention that the chances of stocks going down is higher than going up. Just be careful.

If you did follow our advice, you probably would have bought them now 10-20% from their peak. But having said that, we still believe that the US market might be turning down soon. Do take note that some Singapore Stocks do still have room to drop if US does drop. This is still not the time to acquire yet. Be patient!

Rgds
Daniel

Daily Short Sell Report 11 Mar 2013

Security	ShortSaleVolume	ShortSaleValue
$ WE Hldgs	83388000	7583708
$ YHM	60546000	2261742
Ipco	49079000	1405625
GoldenAgr	46999000	28649910
THBEV	27569000	17080690
Ascendasreit	18217000	46725770
HPH Trust US$	17645000	14191945
HSI23600UBeCW130429	14000000	1268000
GSH Corp	9120000	1030832
Contel Corp	8309000	534354
HSBC UB eCW130916	7000000	1007000
$ ICP	5260000	26300
$ CarrierNet	5150000	109400
NexGenSCom^	4981000	50510
MDR	4900000	81590
$ Equation	4636000	81130
Wilmar	4611000	15414050
SuntecReit	4581000	8242195
HanKore	4575000	200975
$ Magnus	4460000	218740
$ Annica	4340000	126336
$ Ntegrator	3720000	351314
HLH	3462000	90011
CapitaComm	3181000	5209120
Digiland^	3000000	3000
LionGold	2763000	3144945
HSI22800MBeCW130327	2390000	245630
Genting SP	2187000	3357150
$ Adventus	2000000	52000
$ Cedar	2000000	20000
MDR W140925	2000000	22000
$ KLW	1750000	36300
Noble Grp	1580000	1875010
Innopac	1550000	302400
Capitaland	1347000	4791560
Asiasons	1345000	1210500
Stratech	1303000	32484
Oceanus	1263000	69382
CapitaMall	1232000	2600650
AusGroup	1182000	597320
KepCorp MBeCW130704	1140000	182340
HPH Trust S$D	1123000	1133740
FirstRes	1025000	1840385
Yoma	1024000	835495
IndoAgri	1020000	1209380
Yangzijiang	999000	947095
Xpress	996000	40536
KepLand	983000	3910530
UPP	978000	293330
SingTel	968417	3341554.48
MapletreeInd	961000	1342055
Yanlord	926000	1413030
Informatics	899000	85611
Interra Res	885000	389370
BakerTech	859000	360750
AUSSINO^	851000	147532
Wing Tai	832000	1552170
HSI23200MBePW130327	800000	56900
MacqIntInfra	800000	464000
STI 3400MBeCW130628	800000	38400
Weiye	750000	39250
$ Albedo	700000	19200
UOB MB eCW130502	700000	82500
Rowsley	672000	338105
Nam Cheong	666000	170850
CapMallsAsia	660000	1324625
KepCorp MBeCW130603	600000	48800
HKLand US$	591000	4346710
Blumont	575000	255875
Ezra	535000	581155
$ Healthway	524000	48189
SPH	507000	2173120
Ying Li	495000	225160
Yamada	490000	112665
Fragrance	484000	118605
DBS	444000	6880420
GLP	441000	1146140
Yongnam	437000	115805
NOL	421000	493705
GMG	400000	49339
Wee Hur	368000	185280
SingPost	362000	440365
OCBC Bk MBeCW130702	350000	60800
Kep Corp	302000	3592450
StarHub	302000	1257630
HSI23400MBeCW130429	300000	32400
TT Int	290000	42650
Kreuz	286000	125580
Popular	277000	86030
$ Albedo R	273000	7171
SembMar	272000	1224220
Swing Media	271000	34437
Sin Heng	252000	61740
JB Foods	249000	107780
MIDAS	248000	123290
Biosensors	242000	299810
Cambridge	235000	178060
Gallant	223000	61325
DBS MB eCW130604	220000	38060
MapletreeLog	219000	263995
TigerAir	219000	151095
Tat Hong	204000	302120
OCBC Bk MBePW130603	200000	17800
Dyna-Mac	195000	83955
UOB	194706	3856123.13
$ Sky One	191000	72930
SGX	177000	1361170
ComfortDelGro	157000	297405
Uni-Asia	156000	30446
OSIM	155000	288630
LippoMalls	152000	76760
HSI22400MBeCW130429	150000	28700
Kep REIT	147000	196225
Semb Corp	141000	731460
Starhill Gbl	137000	123430
Sabana REIT	134000	169350
CDL HTrust	131000	270370
OverseasEdu	120000	70575
UOL	118000	791440
MapletreeCom	116000	155140
Wheelock	108000	206680
SMRT	107000	170905
ChinaACorp	100000	3100
JiutianC	100000	8000
Plastoform^	100000	4100
Olam	92801	154648.69
UtdEnvirotech	92000	62335
SATS	87000	254160
SuperGroup	79000	302510
Europtron	76000	4408
Far East HTrust	73000	85395
MapletreeGCC	70000	75000
OUE Ltd	68000	194270
Gems TV^	66000	1980
$ Artivision	64000	12015
STXOSV	62000	76920
DMX Tech	61000	14030
First REIT	61000	69905
Fortune Reit HK$	59000	400300
CoscoCorp	54000	49080
Tuan Sing	53000	18780
Jardine C&C	52000	2820840
$ Armarda	50000	1300
CITYDEV	50000	562710
JES	50000	7950
Swiber	49000	31760
OCBC Bk	48000	494200
NeraTel	46000	30960
JMH 400US$	45400	3037308
DairyFarm 900 US$	44100	546732
M1	44000	125070
StamfordLd	43000	24280
SinoGrandnes	42000	36505
Hu An	41000	5054
GuocoLeisure	40000	29170
SoundGlobal	38000	22685
Sheng Siong	36000	22370
AscottREIT	33000	45075
CapitaRChina	32000	55190
Marco Polo	32000	13970
GuocoLand	31000	70050
SIA	30000	326880
STATSChP	30000	13200
Goodpack	29000	53725
$ IEV	28000	12040
JSH 500US$	28000	1136530
Lian Beng	27000	11475
TiongWoon	20000	7000
Venture	19000	162860
FrasersCT	17000	36010
$ Pollux	15000	1065
Del Monte	15000	13500
Amtek	14000	7440
EzionHldg	14000	27880
HL Asia	14000	24215
RafflesMG	14000	46690
IS MS INDIA 100US$	13300	85188
UOB-KayH	13000	22455
Gaylin	10000	5250
CACHE	9000	11780
Hyflux	9000	12890
ST Engg	9000	37920
ARA	8000	14620
CSE Global	7000	5895
Frasers Comm	7000	9375
UE	7000	22010
AIMSAMPI Reit	5000	7830
PLife REIT	5000	12020
Parkson	5000	7750
Boustead Sp	4000	5430
ChinaAOil	4000	4320
Elec US$	4000	9080
HPL	4000	12440
Ho Bee	4000	7445
Mewah	4000	1940
CWT	3000	4330
Haw Par	3000	22410
HongFok	3000	1815
Mermaid	3000	1080
Raffles Edu	3000	1100
SIA Engg	3000	14130
BBR Hldg	2000	560
BukitSem	2000	14280
K1 Ventur	2000	350
Rotary	2000	945
SingTel 10	1000	3460
GLD 10US$	70	10699.6