Daniel Loh 12月5日 FM958 电台访问 ： 中国巨龙已经醒了！

美国12月跑到明年1月底

1)      美国Dow Jones昨晚在盘中又创了一个历史高点17937点。

2)      但是整个星期下来，道琼斯才涨了100点。

3)      我们曾经在节目中有提过，美国12月还是会往上升，但是上升的力度会放慢。股市还是会屡次创高点。目前股市会按照我们的计划走。

4)      我们判断大家真正要谨慎的是明年，美国股市可能在明年一月底或二月会有调整

5)      在这里，我提2点为什么我觉得美国股市12月还可能不错？

6)      第一：美国这个月的制造业报告ISM相当好。他的真正数字58.7还好过预期57.9的数字。这也反映了美国的企业相当的健康。这两个月的数字是今年最高的。我们觉得这个好的成绩可能会反映在明年一月最后一个季度的业绩报告。

7)      如果今天美国公布的就业报告，非农业报告也不错的话，美国股市就确认这个月的走势是看涨的。

8)      第二：美国最近black friday感恩节周末零售业的数字还算不错了。IBM的一个报告显示网上购物的数字比去年还要好9.5%。这也证明了美国人今年在这个christmas节日的期间更容易花费。这也会使股市跌不了。我们也会有一个Christmas Rally。

9)      从技术图表来看，美国暂时在18000点有一个小阻力。但是突破的可能性相当大。这个月最大的支持是在17580点。

新加坡石油公司有机会吗？

·         新加坡海峡指数现在是3320点。上个月海指涨了70点，表现相当不错。这个星期海指掉了40点。海指下滑的原因时因为星期一香港有一天大跌600点。除此之外，股市还是很平稳的。

·         从技术图表来看，海指的支持点就在3300点。阻力就在3380点。

·         如果海指到了3380点，可能大家短期就要小心。

·         目前波动最大，跌的最深的领域就是能源股。最近Opec不减产的消息驶到石油大跌，能源领域的股票也大跌。但我依然觉得是一个机会。

·         对我来说，恐慌就是机会。这是一个可以买到又便宜又好的成长股的机会。我是觉得只要油价稳定保持在70以上至少三周，石油公司就有机会反弹。

·         大家请耐心等待，我判断石油明年一月或最迟二月会在70以上。那时大家就可以行动投资一些能源股。

·         美国政府我判断不会让美国石油公司面临倒闭或破产的可能。Opec如果不减产，可能美国自己减产。这几个月，大家可以留意美国政府对石油价格的举动。

中国牛市跑到明年6月

·         这条巨龙真的醒了！这一整年，我们一直在节目中有呼吁大家，2500点是上证重要的重要观卡。突破2500点，中国股市可能从熊市转为牛市。

·         这几天我们已经可以看到2500点过后，这10天内上证指数既然跑了500点。每一天平均跑个50点。

·         这就叫做疯狂！

·         今天盘中股市到了接近3000点。2978，就掉了下来。

·         这条巨龙真的醒了。（下个星期我们下个星期会详细讨论中国的股市。）

·         我们判断2015年全世界最受瞩目的会是中国股市。因为会大起大落。跟去年日本股市从熊转牛一样。

·         2015年上半年我们判断中国股市掉不了，几乎每个月跑。但是2015年下半年，股市会有一个大调整。

·         目前，我呼吁大家抓住机会买一些中国银行股或任何高股息的指数股。这些股票到明年六月表现都应该不错。

·         这几个月，任何下滑的月份都不会长久。下了就反弹。下了就反弹。

香港绝对不要错过！

·         香港现在是24030点。

·         这个星期一港股有一个大掉，600点，把股市推到23300点的低点。

·         掉的原因是因为示威的原因。

·         我们曾经也在节目中有提过，只要港股因为示威而掉多了，大家一定要抓住机会去买。你看这个星期掉一个600点，现在都赚回了。不要害怕示威，对我们投资家来说都是机会。

·         泰国每年都示威，状况更严重，但是每次股市因为示威掉了过后，就反弹。

·         我们觉得沪港通和中国进入牛市的因素会让恒生突破25000点。

·         大家一定不要错过任何下滑的机会。

日本大选前掉不了

·         日经期货指数现在是17930点。

·         两个星期前，我在节目中说过不要管日本经济有没有萧条。

·         股市还是很健康，掉不了。

·         日本经济暂时是跟股市脱钩了。

·         日本要解散国会要进入大选。

·         大选前，我觉得股市都非常强劲

·         大家要相信总统Abe经济学。

·         Abe又印钞票，又拿了日本的CPF去买自己国家的企业。

·         大选前就一个字，上！

Shanghai Composite may run to 3300-3400 next year, followed by one year of consolidation!

We did talked about the start of the bull market if Shanghai Composite can break that 2500 barrier this year. Ever since the breakout of 2500, the composite has been extremely bullish.

A few important points to take note and what we predict NOW:

1) Shanghai Composite is confirmed to be in a bull market. Any retracement these few months should be a BUYING opportunity


2) This is the first phase of bull run. In first phase of bull run, it seems like almost every month rise. Occasionally there may be one month down. Every time it is down on that month, make sure you buy. First year of bull run, the index will not fall much.


3) This bull run started in July this year after the government implement some so called mini-stimulus. It is a hidden fact that they printed money to stimulate the economy and stock market. Just that the government did not announce it publicly. Printing money works wonders again, this run is just like Japan Nikkei last year.

Article talking about stimulus:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/china-stretches-mini-label-for-stimulus-as-steps-grow.html


4) This almost every month bullish run should continue to June 2015, and after which Shanghai composite will correct strongly! My prediction is that this run will halt in June next year. Be careful of the sharp drop. We will then enter the second phase of bull run, where not every month runs.


5) Be careful of 3300-3400 next year! This is where Shanghai composite might hit the brickwall. A must sell area for mid term investors. Wait for a correction of 15-20% in the index.


6) Best sector to invest now is Banking sector, most likely will increase 2 times from now till 2016. May also select those high dividend blue chip stocks. Shanghai Hongkong connect provide us with a good chance to pick them up.


Coming June next year, we shall see if my predictions come true.

Stay tuned...

Rgds
Daniel

Ein55 Market Prediction and Investment clock

Seminar on Stock Market and Property Market Outlook 2015

We Need Stock Prices to Fall 25%

http://singaporestockstrading.com/

Posted on November 28, 2014

At Current Prices, Investors Should Have Mixed Feelings

The long rally has done wonders for my portfolio’s value. But it also means stocks are now more richly valued—and expected returns are lower. Unless you never again plan to add to your stock portfolio, you should have mixed feelings about the market’s heady gains.

Think about all the money you’ll invest in stocks in the years ahead, whether it’s with new savings, reinvested dividends or by shifting money from elsewhere in your portfolio. Wouldn’t you rather buy at 2009 prices than at today’s nosebleed valuations?

Indeed, I find it hard to get enthused about the prospects for U.S. stocks over the next 10 years. Consider the three components of the market’s return: the dividend yield, corporate-earnings growth and the value put on those earnings, as reflected in the market’s price/earnings ratio.

We already know the dividend yield: It’s 2% for the S&P 500. But big question marks hang over the other two components of the market’s return.

How Fast Will Earnings Grow?

Over the 10 years through mid-2014, the per-share earnings of the S&P 500 companies grew 6.3% a year, far ahead of the 3.6% nominal (including inflation) growth in GDP. But there are three reasons to fear slower earnings growth over the next 10 years.

First, the recent gains have been driven by rising profit margins. After-tax corporate profits rose from 7.9% of GDP in mid-2004 to 10.6% in early 2014. Without that boost, the S&P 500’s earnings would have lagged behind GDP growth.

Suppose profits remain at 10.6% of GDP, rather than reverting to 7.9%. Even in that scenario, investors likely wouldn’t be happy, because corporate profits would grow no faster than the economy.

That brings us to the second reason for worry: Economic growth may disappoint. Over the past 50 years, roughly half the economy’s 3% after-inflation growth has come from increases in the working population and half from productivity gains. But the labor force is now growing more slowly, as the entrance of new workers barely outpaces retiring baby boomers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the civilian labor force will expand 0.5% a year over the 10 years through 2022, versus 0.7% for 2002-12 and 1.2% for 1992-2002.

On top of that, many American families simply can’t afford to spend freely, either because they’re unemployed or underemployed or they remain handcuffed by hefty amounts of debt. That, too, could crimp economic growth.

A third reason to worry: Over the past 10 years, companies have bought back as much stock as they’ve issued. That’s unusual—and it may not last. Historically, shareholders have seen their claim on the nation’s profits diluted by two percentage points a year, as new companies emerge and existing companies issue new shares.

What Will Happen to Valuations?

Let’s be optimistic: Suppose after-tax corporate profits remain at 10.6% of GDP, both nominal GDP and overall corporate profits grow 5% annually over the next decade, and earnings per share also climb 5%, because companies continue to buy back stock at the same pace they issue shares. If all that comes to pass, stock prices would also climb 5% a year—if we don’t get any change in valuations.

That’s a big “if.” Consider the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, which looks at share prices compared with average inflation-adjusted earnings for the past 10 years. The average for this P/E was 19.6 over the past 50 years and 16.6 over the past 100 years.

But since 1990, the average has been 25.3—which is pretty much where we are today. A bullish interpretation: Stocks have been richly valued for a long time, so perhaps we won’t see a big market decline and stocks can hang in there at current valuations.

Where does that leave us? Add 5% annual share-price gains to the 2% dividend yield, and you’re looking at a 7% total return over the next decade, while inflation runs at maybe 2% or so. And that, I would argue, is a scenario where everything goes right.

My hope: We get a 25% decline in share prices. That would make the market more reasonably valued and provide a buffer against disappointment—and I’d have greater confidence that my next stock-market purchase would collect a decent long-run return.

Shanghai composite index - SSE expecting some blocking reaction at 2700.

Posted by Bill E

The chinese shanghai stock index , SSE,  has been on a rocket ride   eversince the HK-Shanghai link was "mooted" in Jul .. but now the shanghai bull looks abit tired ..it may need a rest before charging some more . expecting some reaction down at 2700 monday morning 1 dec.

One more thing , recently in line with our bearish oil view,  we initiated our second round of  big shorts on oil stocks like Ezra , Mirach , Ezion, Sembmar, Kepcorp  etc ..which shall be discussion topic of our next post.. This is our second wave of shorts , our first wave of big shorts was started  in Oct   as represented by our shorts in  RH petro  , sinoGrand( click here) .

and oh yes, juz last thurs 27 nov  , we  closed our big short on biosensor ( click here) and  oso   closed our long on Valuetronics breakout after catching its bottom( click here)  

Daily Market Summary 12th Nov 2014

BBR Q3 net profit -82.9% to $1.4m. SGX

Boustead Q2 net profit +94% to $17.5m. SGX

Croesus Retail Trust Q1 DPU exceeds forecast by 10.1%. SGX

CSE Global Q3 net profit -17.6% to $9.4m. SGX

Fortune Reit Q3 distributable income +25.9%. SGX

Genting SP Q3 net profit -49.5% to $97.4m. SGX

Healthway Medical Q3 net profit +6% to $10.7m. SGX

Jiutian Q3 net profit +71% to RMB5.7m. SGX

Koh Brothers Q3 net profit +3% to $7.1m. SGX

Metro Holdings Q2 net profit +98.4% to $60.6m. SGX

Pan United Q3 net profit -31% to $8.4m. SGX

Ramba Q3 net loss -47.9% to $2.2m. SGX

Rotary Q3 net profit +37% to $10.9m. SGX

Soilbuild Construction wins $61.2m contract. SGX

Swissco secures charter contracts. SGX

Thakral Q3 net profit -21% to $0.85m. SGX

United Envirotech Q2 net profit +133.8% to $16.7m. SGX

UOL Q3 net profit +10% to $103m. SGX

Vicom Q3 net profit +5.6% to $7.2m. SGX

Wilmar Q3 net profit +1.5% on crush margin recovery