《富爸爸窮爸爸》作者預言 全球經濟4年後崩潰

（吉隆坡28日訊）《富爸爸窮爸爸》作者羅伯特清崎預言，2016年全球經濟體系或崩潰；許多國家靠印刷鈔票來支撐經濟轉動，但“錢將不再是錢”。

　受本地發展商Andaman集團前來大馬分享房產投資心得的羅伯特清崎說，現今各國都欠債累累，根本無力償還；歐美債台高築，現今是靠中國帶動市場。

　但最新數據顯示，中國出口成長5%，進口卻是零成長。對倚靠外銷至中國維繫經濟成長的國家而言，這不是個好預兆。

　“德國揚言挽救歐洲經濟，但德國也是以出口為業，這個說法並不能實現。”

　羅伯特清崎指出，一旦中國停止進口，其他出口國家必受衝擊。

抨多國經濟措施

　“馬來西亞也以出口為主，必須考慮在中國停止進口之后，會出現怎樣的衝擊。”

　雖然中國現今主導全球經濟，但他不看好這些主要經濟體系能夠解決困境，預言這些國家如中國、美國、歐洲都正一步步走向崩潰。

　他抨擊多國政府挽救經濟措施出現根本問題，國家缺乏財經教育是最大主因；唸書已經不能為人們帶來穩定的經濟來源，反而是一條死路。

　他說：“太多人不了解金錢。”

　羅伯特清崎在全球86個國家都有投資如黃金和銀，他指金錢不再有任何作用，隨時貶值。

　他更預言，2016年將有一家美國銀行損失100兆美元（約310兆令吉），其他銀行跟進，連接整個經濟體系將會崩潰。

　“對某些人來說，這是一個絕佳時機。”

‘China’s Lady Buffett’ On Shopping Spree

‘China’s Lady Buffett’ On Shopping Spree

Written by Sinafinance
Saturday, 19 May 2012 09:03
Translated by Andrew Vanburen from a Chinese-language piece in Sinafinance

"CHINA'S LADY BUFFETT" is enjoying a "Chinese Buffet" of her own, picking from a wide variety of bargains on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Liu Yang, nicknamed the local version of the famous Nebraska-based investor, has gained great fame and respect for her fabulous success in the regional capital markets, and says her sentiment is just fine, thank you very much.

That's despite currently being in possession of some seriously underpriced shares that need to add alot of value before Liu even hopes to break even on them.

Ms. Liu says she adds to her portfolio daily, and has already spent 2.3 billion hkd buying shares in Hong Kong this year alone.

“I buy shares every day. The lower they go, the more I buy,” she said.

Despite the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index in China being down nearly 20% from a year earlier, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index not doing much better, “China’s Lady Buffett” says she is “confident and not intimidated” amid the current market downturn.

She said that recently, the Hang Seng benchmark index fell by 153 points but the big funds didn’t jump in right away.

This left her free to patiently wait on the sidelines as the share price in one of her favorite counters -- Renhe Commercial Holdings Co Ltd (HK: 1387) – a developer of underground shopping centers in China converted from underground civil defense shelters – fell another 11%.

“I watched the price fall lower and lower, and all I could think was... ‘Buy!” she said.

As of Tuesday at market opening, the Hang Seng Index had fallen for eight straight sessions but with the surprise on the upside for Germany’s macro data – the EU’s largest economy – Hong Kong shares jumped by nearly 1%.

Once again, “China’s Lady Buffett” had outmaneuvered the market and jumped in headfirst at just the right time.

But she better find a comfortable chair because the property developer's shares have already fallen over 62% so far this year and it will be a long haul before Liu reclaims her investment.

Liu’s Atlantis Investment Management now holds 6% of Renhe Commercial, a fitting shopping play for a master shopper.

However, she was adamant in a phone interview that she was a long-term shopper, in this case.

“Many people say I’m about to dump Renhe shares. Why would I sell? I definitely won’t sell. I’m still buying Renhe shares,” she remonstrated.

She emphasized that she felt that Renhe Commercial was fundamentally sound and was in her opinion was the best bargain in the real estate sector.

Reaffirming her oft-repeated pledge that she is oblivious to market rumors when making buying and selling decisions, Liu said: “I am fully confident on this decision. Therefore, I can tell you with firm resolve that since January first of this year, I have already put 300 mln usd into the market. In fact, I add to my portfolio every day, buying more with each price drop.”

That being said, “China’s Lady Buffett” may have to wait a bit longer to enjoy the fruits of her shopping spree labors.

That is because the firm she runs -- Atlantis Investment Management -- as of May 14 has a return on investment performance of (-10.8%).

Her accumulation of Renhe Commercial has been the biggest drag on Atlantis Investment’s year-to-date performance.

Other major anchors pullling down Atlantis' performance of late have been coal play Hao Tian Resources (HK: 474) and tech consulancy Hi Sun (HK: 818), both of which are major possessions of Liu and which have fallen by 67.3% and 49.1%, respectively, since the start of the year.

But knowing what we do of Liu’s shopping expertise, the decision by “China’s Lady Buffett” to stock up on shopping counter Renhe's shares may end up once again surprising us bystanders down the road.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.nextinsight.biz
Publish date: 19/05/12

Euro zone & Greece Exit

Personal Market View - HSI bottom out finally on 2012/05/18?

HSI bottom out finally on 2012/05/18? 

by ckchoy

Today is an interesting day. Refer to chart 2 - intraday, where HSI hit a bottom around 18600 and rebound about 400 pts before dropping back slightly.  This is a scene that has not happened before recently. 2 questions;

1) Could the bottom found here? 2)Will the trend starts to reverse up?

Bottom out?

1) First sign met where HSI hit a bottom and rebound 400 pts and stayed, a very good sign

2) If market stay resilient ( refuse to drop much ) despite bad news - this will be another good sign

Trend will reverse up?

3) If market can slowly trend up and market volume must continue to build up and improve

What does it mean?

If the rebound is purely technical ( due to oversold ), it may not mean such bottom found then we must rush in to buy. Because the bottom might have found but still need time to build up a sustainable uptrend, and it may take time, let's say another month to 3 months.

What should we do now?

1) We can use the HSI 18600 as reference and buy when prices near there. For specific counters, we can use the lowest points as guideline, eg today lowest for Kepcorp 9.8, NOL 1.00, YZJ 0.91 etc.

2) For conservative investors, take your time to buy, if possible get as close as today's lowest point. Watch whether volume improve for better confirmation that market is ready to reverse up.

How about HSI breach down 18600 again?

Technically, we should cut loss. But do observe and come back because we may not be too far from the bottom.  A better ( but not easy to follow ) way is to use buy-cut-buy strategy

chart 1 - daily

 chart 2 - intraday

Personal Market View - HSI and sg market update 2012/05/11

HSI and sg market update 2012/05/11 

by ckchoy

As usual, today market was in selling mode with some tug-of-war actions during the start of the day, but overall the trend was down. 

About 1.30pm noticed a sharp sell-down on HSI upon China's data release, output data below-view. And the bottom was formed around 2.10pm. This could be a capitulation bottom. Sometimes capitulation may not necessary must represent a high percentage drop ( like 5% or more ) in one day, it could be when many bad news has been released. Finally market waited all the bad news out before re-enter again.

Some counters beaten down during the sharp sell down hour like shipping sectors: 

NOL - sold down quick from 1.115 to 1.085 and rebound

Semmarine - 4.58 to 4.51 and rebound

Kepcorp 10.3 to 10.17 and rebound

Cosco 0.945 to 0.92 and rebound

Some counters/sectors were firmed during that period like property Capland and Noble.

Capland remained at 2.65, instead firmed up upon the news and closed at near high today

Noble remained at 1.15 before rebound to 1.16

Even though this may not be the bottom, but looking at some counters in STI, many already cheap in price ( use P/E - do your own homework ). The low(s) is(are) near.

What do you think? 

Be Brave

Be Brave.

Posted by la papillion under Self-realisation

A student of mine recently got 'scolded' by me. She was trying to solve a physics problem but she had no idea how to do it. I had a glimpse of her thinking when I asked her to think out loud. She said after doing this and that, she had no idea what to do. Then I realised that she is trying to figure out entirely the solution of the problem in her head before she even attempt it on paper. I told her severely that perhaps in simpler problems, the entire steps of the solution can be visualised before attempting it. That would be the ideal case, wouldn't it? You would have the confidence to go through the entire process of writing down the solution since you already had in mind what you are going to do next.

However, I told her, that as problems get increasingly complex, it's nearly impossible to figure out all the steps that you're going to do without at least writing down some stuff. As long as you some clues on how to do it, you should just proceed to write something and find out whatever you can from the clues, then let the things you had worked out provide further leads. This trial and error kind of behaviour in doing things would separate the good from the bad students. The good students simply tries something that they know in order to arrive at something that they don't know, whereas the bad students need to know everything before even attempting it. When they can't figure out a step, they won't even want to do the first step. The good students have the confidence to know that they would be able to innovate and improvise along the way to hit their objectives.

I was wondering how many of us are also doing that in our lives. Most of the time, we fear the unknown so much. But understand that fear drives us to either want to find out more about it or paralyses us straight there and then. No matter how much we research, there'll be a moment where you just have to press the trigger and decide to proceed on with the best knowledge that you have at that moment and just jump with leap of faith. How many of us are stumped and paralysed when the first unknown comes along that throw us off our path? How many of us reads all about swimming in books but keeps on postponing the actual act in the pool?

I can also think of many many examples of myself procrastinating objectives that I know would enrich me but because of my fear of the unknowns, I keep dragging doing the first steps towards it. I must believe that even without knowing how I would get to the end, I would eventually reach there. That definitely needs a leap of faith. From what I see, there's two ways  to get it - one is from religion, the other is by a similarly zealous belief in yourself. Both are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

Have courage, my friends. Be brave.

Personal Market View - HSI update 2012/05/07 and general market direction

HSI update 2012/05/07 and general market direction

by ckchoy

It has been a while, since my previous personal market view update. Let's recap.

Refer to chart 1(daily chart from Dec till now), HSI immediate bottom was formed around 17874 on 15 Dec 2011, very close to my spotted capitulation bottom around 17886 on 12 Dec 2011 ( refer to my call on HSI capitulation at 2011/12/15 10.39am ? ). True enough, HSI started to rebound strongly and on 8 Feb 2012, I spotted an euphoria sentiment where the chart showed market might have hit the immediate high around 21000 and hence I called for an immediate market top. ( refer to my call HSI inverse-capitulation at 2012/02/08 2.11pm ? ). But the actual top was formed around HSI 21800 on 20 Feb 2012, about 800 points above my call.  From there, market was trapped in a big range-bound. One discouraging sign is market volume remains sluggish.

chart 1

How do I spot capitulation bottom and inverse-capitulation top?

A slowly moving downtrend with low volume and couple with a sharp sell-down with high volume - very high chance this may mark a capitulation bottom has happened and market will start to reverse up.

Similarly, A slowly moving uptrend with low volume and couple with a sharp surge with high volume - very high chance this may mark a inverse-capitulation top, and market will start to reverse down.

The period for this pattern formed may be in weeks or months.

In summary, 3 key points

1) slow trending

2) low volume

3) couple with sharp following trend with high vol


What is the advantage of using this capitulation?

I'm a short term trader and have been trading market intraday. Short term trades tend to move fast. The decision making on buy/sell calls will be flipping very quick. I do not expect retail investors can follow the fast pace of short term trades. Hence I usually try to post where retail investors can have bigger reward/risk probability entry points, and capitulation bottom/top do offer a great opportunity to retail investors who may wish to bet on a higher probability handsome profit.


So what's next from here and what should we do?

If the immediate top formed where HSI hit 21800 is true, then market might have reversed down since 20 Feb 2012 and was since moving in downtrend. So, where it will stop?  

Refer to intraday chart 2, where HSI today gapped down sharply and continued trend down. In between there looked like some small capitulation bottoms might have happened. But in bigger picture (refer to chart 1), a better reward/risk ratio may need to see whether HSI can hit below 20000, and couple with a sharp sell-down later.

My personal advice

1) For those have invested heavily, try to spare out 50% cash to reserve for a possible capitulation bottom happens before enter again.

2) For those have not invested and higher risk taker, can use 50% cash to start buying slowly now, reserve another 50% for a possible capitulation bottom.

3) For those have cash and not hurry, can wait for a capitulation bottom happens before showing your hands.

chart 2

What if?
There is no 'sure' case in market, even though you follow high probability calls, you may still need to prepare for the opposite side that may be against you.  But betting on a higher probability winning chance consistently over long run will ensure you making profit in long run.  For example, casino house is always win against gamblers because the betting odds are always in favour of house. In long run, casino house will be a winner and a gambler will be a loser.  So don't despair if you encounter any setback in market. As long as you always bet on higher winning odds and don't let 1 bad trade wipe out your capital, success will be with you.  Hence I would like to reiterate that 'cut loss' rule is very important, even though it is an 'easier said than done' case.