Market Sense

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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: April 2013
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Saturday 27 April 2013

颜子伟:市场似乎岌岌可危:从图表分析未来走势


市场似乎岌岌可危:从图表分析未来走势
文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2013年04月19日 展望
全球各大股市及金融工具表现不一:有些在涨升;有些在下跌;有些停滞不前。新加坡是属于第三类!

我们的股市究竟出了什么问题?投资者都往哪里跑了?

海峡时报指数
新加坡的经济增长将会放缓及企业将会面对劳工短缺,这是基金经理及投资者最不喜欢看到的重要新闻。试想想,一个面对经济增长放缓的国家与一个充满刺激措施的国家,投资者会选择哪个市场?


事实上,本地股市自从去年尾起,并没有什么进展,尽管海峡时报指数走高至目前的水平,差不多与全球其他股市同步。从11月至2月,海指一直飙升,但之后便没有什么动静,尤其是在小型股的强劲升势之后。因为市场狂炒小型股而令升势终止的典型例子是有的。因此,事后孔明,海指的升势就是很可能因为这个原因而终结。

自二月起,蓝筹股一直在窄幅内徘徊,这里起一点,那边跌一点。但值得注意的是,海指在差不多三个月内一直在3,250点至3,320点交易,尽管美国股市一直飙升,并屡创历史新高。在二月初的时候,我建议投资者按兵不动,同时等待海指突破3,320点,但当海指尝试四次闯关都失败后,我便变得谨慎,并在对上两期的文章中显得不大乐观。就好像一个不断尝试挑战一个特定高度的跳高选手,但经过几次的失败后,这名选手将会精疲力竭,失去斗志。同样地,我们看到本地股市也出现类似的现象,尤其是一些产业股,像凯德集团(CapitaLand)及城市发展(City Developments),但银行股的实力缓和了产业股的跌势。

自从政府宣布新一轮的冷却楼市措施后,楼价在二月及三月稍微下跌。当冷却措施公布后,上述股只的股价应声下跌,但之后马上回升,就好像没有事情发生过一样,然后忽然间一直往下跌。这是否因为大型投资者在玩弄典型的“拉高出货(pump and dump)”手段?即他们希望把手上所持有的这两只股的股份脱手,因此他们首先把这两只股的股价推高,然后让这只股逐渐往下掉来慢慢出货。

城市发展目前的价位是在10.95元,它的支持位是在10.68元。从11.27元高位突然下滑至4月17日的10.95元收盘价不是一个好现象,意味着其价位很有可能会下跌至支持水平。那么,这只股是否可以守住10.68元的支持水平就得视乎大市的表现及/或政府是否会为进一步抑制产业市场而推出更多的新管制措施。

凯德集团比城市发展更危险,它目前位于3.45元,离开3.40元支持水平只差0.05元。 目前的价位比1月份政府宣布抑制房产措施时的价位还要低。接下来的两个支持位是在3.26元及3.11元。

虽然海指并没有好像恒生指数或上海综合指数那样走下坡,但在四次尝试冲破3,320点都失败后,似乎它正在形成一个圆顶。如果海指一旦跌至3,250点或以下,市场将会出现更多抛售,而接下来的支持区将会是在3,110至3,150点。

我们目前必须把重点放在企业业绩上,因为它可以令一只股升或跌,尤其是指数成份股。还记得报业控股(SPH)仅仅在几天内,当它在公布了令人失望的盈利后,从4.68元跌至4.23元。再加上许多成份股将会在不久后除息,海指看来十分不稳定。

道琼斯工商指数
继日本之后,美国市场的表现最佳,道指看似十分健康,除了零星的就业数据可能会打击市场外,好像就没有太多的坏消息。投资者是否终于醒觉刺激措施对实质经济的帮助不大?

单单从技术角度来看,当道指在4月11日升至14,887点高位时,似乎它已经到达近期顶峰。道指正在走低,并且十分不稳定,因为它可以在一天内下跌266点,然后翌日回升176点,接下来又再以三位数回落。这是市场上一个异常的方向变动现象,可能是升或跌,但目前的情况有可能是出现调整,只不过它不会马上出现,因为市场还有很多买家认为股市仍很便宜,而最重要是,市场没有坏消息传来,除非美国大型企业公布令人震惊的业绩。

道指可能很快出现调整并不令人感到意外,但它也有可能出现一两个星期的牛熊对决,最后由熊市取胜。大家应该留意在14,400点的重要支持位,因为一旦这个重要水平失守,道指可能会跌至14,000点或甚至13,800点低位。

恒生及上海综合指数
自从2月初起,两个指数一直在下跌,现在可以肯定它们是处于短及中期跌势中。它们两都尝试努力回弹,但每次回弹的高位都比上一次的回弹高位来得低,换句话说,它正在“拾级而下”。

恒指可能会在21,098 点找到支持,后者是之前在11月的低位;上证综指可能在碰触2,150点后会回升。技术性回弹将会出现,但投资者必须留意下一个回弹是否有能力突破趋势线,因为后者一直在抑制之前几次的回弹。中期而言,两个指数看来依然还有下跌的空间,然后才会回弹。

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新加坡股市资讯
Publish date: 19/04/13

Saturday 20 April 2013

Analysis Gold slide flashes warning signs for global economy


Business & Markets 2013

Written by Reuters  
Friday, 19 April 2013 14:27

NEW YORK (April 19) : The plunge in the gold price in the past week may have raised a big red flag over the global economy.

Some top investors say the gold sell-off, and the broader declines in oil and metals prices, reflect the failure of the Federal Reserve and other central banks to create robust demand even as they inject massive amounts of money into the world financial system.


The slide, which took gold to its biggest one-day loss ever in dollar terms on Monday, unnerved investors who saw billions of dollars in gains wiped out in a few days, and it may portend declines in other asset prices ahead. That may have begun this week with several days of big stock price drops.

Some see the move in gold as a possible flashpoint for a broader economic and markets shock comparable to the collapse of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management in 1998 and even the financial crisis a decade later. Both events were preceded by sharp drops in gold.

The gold and commodities weakness is "signaling concerns about global growth," said Mohamed El-Erian, the co-chief investment officer of PIMCO, which oversees $2 trillion in assets. "Commodities have been sending the signal on growth for a while, and now even louder."

And after the stampede out of gold earlier this week, investors on Thursday dumped their holdings of U.S. inflation bonds after a lousy auction. This kind of debt is seen as a way to protect against any rise in the inflation rate that might materialize in a more buoyant economy.

The post-crisis run-up in gold prices resulted in part from speculation triggered by the massive amounts of cash created by aggressive monetary policy. It had been thought that the massive creation of credit would support a "re-inflation" of the world economy but the recent pullback in gold, oil and copper the latter two assets linked closely with global industrial growth suggests that this may just not be happening.

The recent rush into the safety of U.S. Treasuries - which has pushed yields close to four-month lows is another sign that the global economy is far from humming. Treasuries are often seen as a shelter when the economy is weak or unstable.

The PIMCO Total Return Fund, which holds $289 billion in assets and overseen by Bill Gross, increased its exposure to Treasuries and Treasury-related securities to 33 percent in March from 28 percent the previous month. Gross said on Twitter on Wednesday that "gold has started a levered market 'sell-off.' Buy Treasuries."

Some are even talking about the possibility the United States could head back into recession, though this is a minority view.

"It's not noise. There are fundamental consequences," said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies and a portfolio manager of the TCW Comprehensive Asset Allocation Strategy fund.

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday dialed back its forecast on global economic growth in 2013 to 3.3 percent from its earlier projection of 3.5 percent. That is little changed from the 3.2 percent in 2012.

Concerns about slowing growth are also resonating within the Federal Reserve. Several Fed officials expressed worry about disinflation, including the more centrist James Bullard, St. Louis Fed president, who said on Wednesday that "if inflation continues to go down, I would be willing to increase the pace of stimulus.

"The stars are lining up" for a significant dip in U.S. growth in the second half of the year, possibly even a double-dip recession by 2014, Sri-Kumar said.

It all raises questions about the effectiveness of the huge cash stimulus pumped into the world economy by the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and other major central banks.

With governments strapped for cash, the central banks have taken on a lot of the burden of getting the world economy back on a growth path after the devastation inflicted by the financial crisis. If the impact of those measures, such as the Fed buying massive amounts of government and mortgage debt, starts to show diminishing returns it could be a huge concern for investors in any riskier assets.

GOLD LOSING SHINE

The downdraft in gold prices coincided with mounting evidence of a slowing of the rate of price increases. On Tuesday, the U.S. Labor Department said U.S. consumer prices have increased by 1.5 percent over the past 12 months, the lowest rate of increase since July 2012.

Bank of America-Merrill Lynch recently warned that gold - which was trading at $1,392 an ounce late on Thursday could all to $1,200 before stabilizing, citing "fears of disinflation combined with news of potential central bank gold selling."

The sell-off in gold, together with weak economic data, knocked investors' long-term inflation expectations to their lowest levels since late last summer.

The yield gap between 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and regular 10-year Treasury notes used to gauge investors' outlook on inflation 2.27 percentage points on Thursday, the lowest since early September prior to the Fed's announcement of its third round of large-scale bond purchases, known as QE3.

This 10-year inflation "break-even" rate, which the Fed monitors, was as high as 2.61 points in late January.

Meanwhile, three-month copper futures are down 12 percent this year, falling below $7,000 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange for the first time since October 2011. Copper's importance as a use in industrial and housing applications from autos to water pipes has made it a key barometer of demand.

Some, however, believe the dramatic wind-down of the severe inflation of assets in the previous decade remains incomplete making the declines in gold and other metals less disconcerting.

"Because the global economy is on the downside of a global credit bubble, it seems unreasonable to expect abnormal inflation," said Richard Bernstein, a long-time strategist who heads his own namesake investment advisory firm in New York.

In addition, gold has arguably been in line for a correction. Its price had risen for 12 straight years, and had gained 52 percent in the last three years, the kind of gains seen notably in TECHNOLOGY [] stocks in the late 1990s.  

"Even at these levels, gold is still not attractive. The odds favor the bull market being over," said Jim McDonald, chief investment strategist at Chicago-based Northern Trust Global Investments, which in early March told clients to stop allocating a position to gold.

As the outlook on inflation has diminished, investors have cut back on their gold exposure.

U.S. funds that invest in precious metals suffered a record one-week outflow of $2.7 billion in the week ended April 17, according to Lipper, a unit of Thomson Reuters, of which $2.2 billion came from the SPDRs Gold Shares ETF. The GLD is one of the largest exchange-traded funds with $50.8 billion in assets, but it has seen its assets dwindle by one-third since October 2012, Lipper said.

The stampede out of gold has tapered off, and it has pulled back more than 5 percent from a two-year low of $1,321 an ounce hit earlier this week, leading to some hopes the declines are the result of a much-needed correction in the metal.

Still, investors are very wary of another plunge. "If we see this kind of liquidation again, the equity marketwill follow. Then we'll have a real problem," said Frank Cholly, Jr., senior commodities broker at R.J. O'Brien and Associates in Chicago.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.theedgemalaysia.com/
Publish date:19/04/13

Everything You Know About The Market “Is Wrong”


19 MARCH 2013
Everything You Know About The Market “Is Wrong”

By Alastair Kellett

What’s striking about the accepted truths of our time is that they are, for the most part, unsubstantiated by the facts.

Casual observers of financial markets are these days likely to have formed a fairly clear view of things. Common perceptions are that stocks have never been as volatile and dangerous; that the good times are behind us and we should all learn to live with much lower returns in our portfolios; and that physical gold is the only thing we can really call a safe investment anymore. What’s striking about the accepted truths of our time is that they are, for the most part, unsubstantiated by the facts.


The period after the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 has been unshakably thought of as a “new normal” environment of lower expected returns on risky assets. In reality, it’s been one of the strongest periods of equity performance in many market participants’ entire careers. By February 2012, the S&P 500 had a trailing three-year cumulative return of 97.9%, albeit as a result of bouncing back after the crushing losses from the crisis. In the last 40 years, the only times we’ve seen comparable gains were the go-go days of the mid ‘80s and the nosebleed-inducing highs of the dotcom bubble of the late ‘90s. Any investor that shunned equities in 2009 because of their “new normal” lower return expectations did so to very harmful effect. The sentiment is reminiscent of a Businessweek cover story “The Death of Equities” famously published in 1979, shortly before a 20-year bull market in stocks.

This is also an environment characterised in the media, as well as everyday discourse, as a time of extreme volatility for securities prices. Our heads spin at talk of risk on/risk off, high frequency trading, flash crashes, and so on. And capital has flown into minimum variance and low beta products for some cover from the market’s whip-sawing ways. But against this backdrop, the VIX Index, widely used as a barometer for equity volatility, has been testing multi-year lows. After sailing north of 80 in late 2008, the VIX fell to just 12.5 in mid-January 2013, a level it hadn’t reached since January 2007.

Searching For A Gold Standard
With many of the erstwhile stalwart sovereign bond issuers in trouble, investors have turned to physical gold as the, well, gold standard of safe investments. But how are we measuring ‘safe’? The monthly returns from an investment in the spot price of gold have exhibited annualised volatility of 18.9% in the last 10 years, a higher standard deviation than the corresponding results of the MSCI World index, which measures the performance of global equities. Of course the total gains of the former have soundly trounced the latter, but the fluctuations are instructive in reminding us that no matter what special properties we ascribe to the precious metal, its price can as easily go down as well as up. Surely we should pause before declaring something the safest part of our portfolio when it has been more volatile than equities over a 10-year period.

Another broad assumption relates to the superior skills and access of those in the know. In the asset management business, hedge fund managers are considered the “smart money,” and that perception is certainly reinforced by the fees they charge. Odd, then, that this “smart money”—as measured by the Morningstar Broad Hedge Fund Index—has underperformed the S&P 500 in 7 of the last 10 calendar years. In truth, there’s nothing magical about the way the average hedge fund manager invests, and retail investors that are careful about costs, stay disciplined, and focus on the very long term stand every chance of doing just as well.

Wide Disparity Between Perception And Reality
These examples illustrate the vast gulf that has developed between the general mood surrounding the markets, and the reality of how they have been faring. One of the best performing asset classes of 2012 was Greek government bonds. Think about that, in the context of everything you read throughout the year.

Global financial markets have become exceedingly complex. It’s very easy and comforting for us to cling to simple and intuitive story lines, and to listen to pundits bearing sound bites. But a vital element of successfully managing our financial lives is the ability to cut through much of the conventional wisdom and stay focused on our long-term goals without letting the drama of our immediate circumstances knock us off course. When “everybody knows” that something is the case, you can usually bank on the opposite being true.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 19/03/13

Thursday 18 April 2013

The Fall of Gold and Their Related Sector


Posted on  by Ichimoku

Following up on a previous article written about GLD, this article looks at the mining industry that obviously would be directly impacted by the fall in recent capitulation in gold and precious metals.
By now, every investor or trader should have already read or heard about the fall of gold in the commodities market last week. If you haven’t, here’s a recap — let’s look at the charts of the  popular gold ETF, GLD
GLD monthly
Since the peak of August 2011, GLD has dropped about 22%. In fact, the ETF broke its long term uptrend support beginning of 2012 and has been trading sideways since then. Last week’s capitulation was significant when GLD broke the $150 which served as support during the consolidation period. Now that GLD has broken that psychological support, the next question is, how low can it go?
A clue would be the the popular Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level, which is a popular technical analysis tool used by traders. If we measured the Fib from its base of around $45, GLD should find some support around $132 level, which is near a the round number $130 — another psychological support if you like. Like most things in the markets, nothing goes down (or up) in a straight line, so there we could see a short bear market rally at those “round number” levels — the next one being $140 (not shown above).
Often, the price movement in a major commodity like gold will have an effect on stocks of companies involved in the mining or related industry. An ETF that tracks gold miners is the GDX
To find out more about the performance of this gold mining ETF, click here to read the rest of the article.

Wednesday 17 April 2013

Daily Market Summary 16th April 2013


AscendasReit 4Q12 DPU -3.7% to 3.37c. SGX
Contel and Yuuzoo sign a $582.3m reverse-takeover deal. SGX
Far East HT signs agreement to acquire Rendezvous Hotel & Gallery. SGX
Geo Energy announced entry into sales & purchase for 5th mine concession in 2013. SGX
K-Green 1Q13 net profit -9.8% to $3.2m. SGX
Keppel secures new jacup order for US$226m from Falcon Energy Group. SGX
Keppel Reit 1Q13 DPU +3.7% to 1.97c. SGX
Qian Hu 1Q13 net profit -88.1% to $62k. SGX
Sino Grandness receives tremendous reponse at Chengdu Trade Exhibition. SGX
SPH announce complete acquisition of SGCM Pte Ltd. SGX

Saturday 13 April 2013

Gabriel Gan: Technical Indicators Look Precarious For Asian Markets Even As Dow Hits New Highs


05 APRIL 2013
Technical Indicators Look Precarious For Asian Markets Even As Dow Hits New Highs
By Gabriel Gan

It is yet another solid fortnight for the US market as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) touched new highs while the S&P 500, too, touched fresh closing highs at levels not seen since October 2007. During the fortnight, the DJIA surged ahead to reach 14,684 points on brighter prospects of the US economy only to be disappointed on 3 April when the services sector showed that the growth in the US economy was not as strong as expected while the private sector added less jobs than expected in the month of March.

The triple-digit drop in the DJIA, while not the first time in recent weeks, resembled the correction on 20 February when the index fell 200-odd points to 13,784 points only to recover almost immediately to move higher.


The S&P 500 also took a while to reclaim highs not seen since October 2007 but still lagged the DJIA which breached multi-year highs quite some time ago. On the very same day the S&P 500 returned to 2007 highs, an ominous correction took place and the correction in this broader-market index immediately after touching multi-year highs is more worrisome.

With the US stock market already at historical highs, it is susceptible to downside as shown by the correction on 3 April when the US services sector and private sector employment showed weaknesses. This serves as a minor wake up call to investors who by now are very used to thinking that the US stock market will never fall simply because the Fed (Federal Reserve) is still pumping an endless amount of liquidity into the financial system.

If we paused to think for a while, it is definitely a good thing for the stock market to continue rising so that everyone can make money but corporate profits in the fourth quarter warned us that things are not looking too good and, unless the first quarter surprises us on the upside, how far can the US stock market go on without a meaningful correction?

Asian Markets Moving Its Own Way

With the exception of Japan, which had just announced the first policy decision under new Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda where he announced the buying of US$74 billion worth of bonds a month, the rest of the Asian markets paint a less-than-rosy picture.
While Japan has joined the ranks of the US in seeking solace in the printing machines, China, Hong Kong and Singapore are actually fighting a battle against runaway property prices. For many years, investors are so used to stimulus measures so much so that stock markets do not move unless there are stimulus cocktails available to intoxicate investors into buying more and more equities.

Investors are now worried that China, which depends on the property- and property-related sector for almost one-fifth of its GDP (gross domestic product), may take extra steps to curb property prices after a series a policies failed to cool prices. Similarly in Hong Kong and Singapore, the savvy investors are already out of the market after watching a series of curbs introduced to cool the property market but it is getting worrisome if government policies have so far failed to work. Will more drastic measures be introduced? Will the bubble become too big that a downturn in the global economy be the final needle that burst the bubble?

As mentioned in last issue’s article, Asian markets need to climb higher before the US market loses steam. During the fortnight, however, China and Hong Kong failed to do so and ended up even lower while Singapore managed to climb above 3,320 to as high as 3,324 points on 3 April before pulling back the following day.

Hang Seng Index

The Hang Seng Index (HSI), after trading as high as 23,944 points in early February, has lost almost 1,600 points over two months. During the process, there were a series and ups and downs but each high failed to cross 23,944 points while each low became lower and lower after experiencing technical rebounds. The index is now firmly on a downtrend on both the daily and weekly charts with no signs of an imminent recovery anytime soon. This trend may continue till the index reaches 21,000 points after Li Ka Shing warned against speculating in the property market after Hong Kong banks announced a hike in interest rate.

Could this be the prelude to a rate hike in mortgage loan? While interest rates are not expected to spike up, there is every reason to believe that the cycle has started after years of being too low. This trend will be also confirmed if China starts to hike rates on fears of inflation and/or the US economy grows enough to warrant an exit from the stimulus measures. Similarly in Singapore, the increase in the SIBOR (Singapore interbank offer rate) has not increased for many years until recently when mortgage rates, too, rose a tad higher.

Shanghai Composite Index

A sudden buying spree ended with a whimper just before the official takeover by the new political leaders in March 2013. From November last year to February this year, the (Shanghai Stock Exchange) SSE rose from as low as 1,950 points to 2,450 points, chalking up an impressive gain of 500 points. Could it be a matter of too fast, too furious or is it a matter of facing up to disappointments on the policy front?

Like it or not, the Chinese stock market is still at an infancy stage whereby investors are still not as sophisticated as other markets. The Chinese stock market is still plagued by the herd mentality whereby everybody rushes into one group or a theme stock upon some comments by government officials. More often than not, investors are prone to speculating what the government officials would think or do without basing it on facts. This has led to a huge disappointment when the new leaders who took over in March failed to announce policies that are pro-economy or pro-stock market.

The unwinding process started in February after the SSE hit a high and the index has lost more than 200 points. Just like the HSI where a series of lower-low has been created, the SSE may head towards 2,150 points over the next one or two months after more policy curbs were introduced to cool the property market.

Straits Times Index

The Straits Times Index (STI) has been rather resilient in the face of corrections in the Shanghai and Hong Kong bourses and much of the strength can be found in the support provided by the DJIA. Should the US market start to show more weakness, we can be sure that the STI will break the psychological support of 3,300 points and head towards the primary support zone between 3,250 and 3,280.

While the index managed to cross 3,320 points, the conviction to power ahead was lacking and the entire market looked tired with buyers wary of a correction in the US market. A look at the mid-cap stocks such as Noble Group, NOL (Neptune Orient Lines), Olam International, COSCO Corporation or even some heavyweights such as CapitaLand and SembMarine do not instill much confidence.

No, it is not the end of the world if a correction comes along because an easing is long overdue. Investors will now be on the lookout for first quarter profits for signs of getting back into the market. Beware, as the profits may not be what investors will like!

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: www.sharesinv.com/
Publish date: 05/04/13

Tuesday 9 April 2013

Start early so your nest egg can grow


The Straits Times
SINGAPORE - Whether it's a morbid fear of death or just the unpleasant acknowledgement that we are all getting old, many of us just do not want to think about retirement, much less plan for it.
Survey after survey points to the fact that many Singaporeans are inadequately prepared for their silver years.
The same surveys often show that we actually know full well how important it is to build up a retirement nest egg, yet many people have yet to start doing so. About 40 per cent of Singaporeans to be exact, according to an HSBC Insurance study.
Experts have long extolled the merits of starting your saving early.
Mr Christopher Tan, chief executive of financial advisory firm Providend, tells The Sunday Times: "If one is accumulating towards retirement, you should give yourself at least 10 years to accumulate.
"Anything less, I would say it is very difficult. In fact, 10 years is already very tough. The more time you have, the less pressure on getting returns and the lower risks you need to take."
Fortunately, it is never too late to start, although those who are very near retirement age will likely have to set aside a larger sum each month and stick to relatively conservative investment tools.
Mr Daniel Lum, director of product and marketing at Aviva Singapore, notes: "With a short time horizon, you should focus on capital preservation as there is less time to rebound from large losses.
"While there isn't one magic formula that would be suitable for everybody, there is a wide range of investment, savings and insurance options available in Singapore to cater to different needs."
Assessing your needs
Deciding when you intend to retire governs how many years you have left to save.
And what you will need will be determined by lifestyle choices such as whether you plan to own a car, travel yearly and how often you plan to eat out.
Also take into account continuing liabilities like insurance premiums.
How long you will live is in the lap of the gods but statistics show that 50 per cent of Singaporeans aged 65 today are expected to live beyond 85, and a third beyond 90. It might be advisable to add a few years to that for good measure.
AIA Singapore and Aviva Singapore, for instance, have online retirement calculators to help you with the maths.
Getting started
Mr Ong Lean Wan, director and chief executive at research-driven and fee-based financial consultancy Life Planning Associates (LPA), says the first step in retirement planning is to top up Central Provident Fund (CPF) accounts.
For most Singaporeans, the basic source of retirement income will be the monthly payout from their CPF accounts. If at age 55, the CPF member has the full Minimum Sum of $131,000, it works out to be an approximate monthly income of $1,100 for life from age 65 under the CPF Life annuity scheme.
CPF savings earn a guaranteed minimum interest rate of 2.5 per cent per annum, as legislated under the CPF Act. Mr Ong says this kind of guarantee is hard to find in any other investment option.
There is also a tax relief of up to $7,000 per calendar year if you top up your CPF account with cash. The top-up for members under 55 will be made to their Special Accounts. Additions will be made to the Retirement Account for those aged 55 and more.
Top-ups for Special Accounts are capped at the Minimum Sum of $139,000 but less the amount of cash already in the account plus any of the savings that may have been used for investments.
As an example, if you have $39,000 cash in the account, and have not made any investments, you can top up your account by $100,000.
Retirement Account top-ups can be made up to the prevailing Minimum Sum but minus the cash balance already in the account.
Similarly, if you have $100,000 in your Retirement Account, you can add a maximum of $39,000.
However, Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam said that the CPF Life scheme is not designed to meet the needs of higher-income earners but to help a two-member, lower-middle income household or those that fall between the 20th and 40th percentile by income.
Manulife Singapore chief executive Annette King notes that one downside might be that the money in the CPF accounts will be locked in, and that some liquidity is still necessary to deal with any emergencies or unforeseen circumstances.
She adds that people who can afford a better lifestyle after retirement could consider using the many plans offered by insurers to supplement their income on top of the CPF Life payouts.
Private plans
Typically, consumers can make a one-time single-premium payment or pay the premiums yearly or monthly over a fixed number of years.
However, before committing to any such plans, you should review your finances and see if you can afford the premiums for the next 10 years if your liabilities or expenses might increase.
Mr Eddy Lim, head of protection and savings propositions at AXA Singapore, acknowledges that younger people especially may have difficulty working out how much they will be able to afford, especially if they intend to get married and buy their first property.
"It doesn't mean that to plan for retirement, you will have to fork out large sums of money. If you can take out maybe $200 or $300 a month, it will still add up over the long run," he says.
You can also choose the age at which you start to receive your money.
Given the wide array of plans in the market, it may be difficult to pick and choose, but Ms Viviena Chin, chief executive of Eternal Financial Advisory, says her clients tend to prefer plans that have lifetime payouts and guaranteed capital returns.
Few private plans offer lifetime payouts, but Tokio Marine's TM Retirement Life and Manulife's Manulife 3G do offer this.
The other plans usually have options on the payout mode, either lump sum or annual or monthly payments over a fixed period of time.
LPA's Mr Ong cautions against just taking the advertised investment returns wholesale, or at face value.
"Usually only a part of that is guaranteed, and the rest are projected rates, which depend on the economy. In recent years, many insurers have cut their terminal bonus rates because of the financial crisis, so only the guaranteed part matters."
Newer retirement plans
AXA Retire Happy has a unique feature - it offers a guaranteed rising retirement payment at 3.5 per cent a year, although there is also an option for level payouts. The increasing payout will help ease the problem of inflation during retirement.
The guaranteed returns can be up to 2.75 per cent per annum, and there is a non-guaranteed terminal bonus at the plan's maturity. This is largely dependent on how well the participating fund performs AIA Retirement Saver dishes out a guaranteed bonus worth 24 times the guaranteed monthly retirement income payout at the age of 65, to "celebrate retirement".
It is capital guaranteed, and also has a non-guaranteed annual cash dividend feature to help cope with inflation but this is dependent on the performance of its underlying participating fund.
Manulife's ManuRetire Secure, unlike the other retirement products, is not a participating fund-based solution, but rather is an equity-based fund. As such, the returns can be as high as the market achieves.
It uses the Citi Octave SGD Index as its underlying investment strategy.
There is no capital guarantee, but the downside risk is capped at 80 per cent of the highest historical unit price. Customers make a single premium payment, and can continue to invest as and when. In the event that there is a need to cash out, surrenders in the first three years are subject to charges but there are no charges from the fourth year.
Aviva MyRetirement has guaranteed returns of up to 2.38 per cent per year and customers can choose whether to receive their payment in a lump sum or over 10 years.
Payment can be made over eight years or up to five years before the preselected retirement age. There is also a capital guarantee when the selected retirement age is attained, which means that all the premiums paid up to that age will be returned to the policyholder in full.
Other options
Great Eastern's Family 3 gives out non-guaranteed cash bonuses yearly from the end of policy's second year. From the 10th year, there will be a lifelong yearly payout comprising guaranteed and non-guaranteed cash benefits. In the event of death, the sum assured will constitute a legacy for the family.
One feature of this plan is that the ownership of the policy can be transferred to your child when he or she turns 22. It will continue to pay annual cash benefits, and the eventual death benefits can be accrued to the third generation.
NTUC Income's Classic Annuity is a single-premium product that can be bought with funds in the Supplementary Retirement Scheme. It provides lifetime income after you retire. The fund is expected to earn a non-guaranteed long-term average return of 5.25 per cent per annum.
Endowment plans, such as Prudential's PruSave or PruFlexiCash, can also be used in retirement planning as they provide a lump sum or regular payout on maturity.
Other than these plans, if you still have additional disposable income, Aviva's Mr Lim says it is wiser to have a diversified portfolio to avoid over-exposure in any one asset.
Providend's Mr Tan adds: "You can either buy (additional products) directly from the stock markets or bond markets but a more practical way to do it is through unit trusts or ETFs (exchange-traded funds), where you can be better diversified without needing a large sum of money."
Even after all this preparation has been done and policies put in place, it is important to review your financial needs and retirement plans regularly. Ms Chin does so for her clients yearly to ensure that any potential gaps are plugged early.
Ms Chin takes into account any changes in financial situation, such as a pay increment or an additional mortgage payment.
"For example, if they have a windfall, or expect to be able to collect rent because they have bought an investment property, then maybe some of the funds can be channelled to other areas to make their money work harder for them," she says.




Get more retail investors into the market

Published on Apr 09, 2013

THERE are many stocks on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) that are trading in the sub-pennies category. These are stocks priced below 20 cents, which are invariably traded in the hundreds of millions as it does not make sense for traders to trade them at very low volumes.

These stocks make up the majority in the daily Top Volume report, and give a false picture that they are the more actively traded stocks. A better parameter would be "Top Value", bearing in mind that SGX and broker revenues are a function of traded value and not traded volume.

Measuring market activity by market volume or trading volume is erroneous. What is important is the total value of stocks traded.

However, the really important question is: How much of this traded value comes from retail investors ("Retail investors take a bigger bite of SGX pie"; April 1)?

Retail investors should not be defined as non-corporates. I suspect most of the volume that is attributed to retail investors comes from proprietary traders, dealers or remisiers, or stock operators.

The real retail investors, if defined as the man-in-the-street investors, may be in the minority. Ask the dealers and remisiers who are servicing these retail investors, and a different picture will probably emerge.

In fact, many remisiers are struggling to survive, given the dearth of retail investor participation, and many have to resort to self-trades to earn some income, at great risk to themselves. Remisiers' take-home pay has decreased and many have left the industry or are contemplating doing so.

More must be done to get more retail investors into the market. It is heartening to note that the SGX has embarked on this.

Also, the SGX can make it cheaper for retail investors by reducing some fees, for example, clearing fees and terminal fees. It should also do away with its forced key charges, and requiring retail investors to mark short-sell orders.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore must also do its part by making it easier for retail investors to invest and trade freely, and not put up roadblocks by way of unnecessary rules and regulations, like requiring investors to take a quiz.

Vincent Khoo

Thursday 4 April 2013

Sell In May And Go Away? Remember to come back

'Sell In May And Go Away'? Remember to come back

by ckchoy

Any chances 'Sell In May And Go Away' will happen this year? No idea, but remember to come back.

If it does happen, be determined, it could be a good chance to buy stocks at bargain.

How low will it go ?
Not a mean to guess what level to reach by when, instead we can use TA support lines to set your entry points and have a plan. Let's say, Entered counter ABC at price X, we can set a stop loss about -5% from you entry point to protect your capital and the upside target can set at 10%, 20% or higher. The reward/risk ratio looks good and the upside/downside probability could be 70-30. Means it may have 70% upside chances and 30% downside chances.

What stocks to buy?
For stocks selection, let's look at STI component counters or blue chips first - a more conservative/defensive area.
Stock Market is still the best place for investment because statistic shows it - Gambling vs Investing odd

How sure?
There is no such thing as 100% sure in stock Market.  We must understand the Stock Market is dynamic. There are thousands of different combination of events may happen in the Market  as every participant(a unit of Market  may change his/her decision everyday, every minute, every second, every now and then. All those contribute Market movement.  Hence trading/investment is always a probability, as long as you spotted a good opportunity, go for it and at the same time set a cut loss point because no matter how good or accurate your homework, there are still some chances Market may turn against you, hence you need a cut loss point to protect your capital. Come back another time, trade/invest in this way you will be a winner in long run.

You see I use capital letter for Mr Market.  Yes it is a superior character, just treat it as God, what it tells you is always right.



Tuesday 2 April 2013

Hang Seng Index and H-shares Index futures

Hang Seng Index and H-shares Index futures will be available for trading from 5 p.m. to 11 p.m. from 8 April 2013, in addition to regular hours.

Daily Market Summary 2 April 13


Daily Market Summary 2 April 13


Carriernet announces distributor agreement with Singtel. SGX
CAO's oil storage investment in Korea commences operations. SGX
ChipEngSeng has incorporate a subsidiary and purchase a site at Melbourne. SGX
Falcon Energy announce launch of support vessels and jack-up rig. SGX
Golden Ocean 2 newbuilding contracts for bulk carriers. SGX
Otto Marine announces company's shipyard sold a vessel for US$50m. SGX
World Precision subsidiary accredited as high/new tech enterprise. SGX