World and HSI markets prediction

ref:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nX2SeYKkRIA

2017 HSI prediction

2017 S&P500 prediction

Singpost Movement Update

TA view for illustration purpose only.

After hitting high of 1.65 (upon Alibaba stake increase announcement), Singpost corrects down and hit as low as 1.43, reacting the poor 2QFY17 earnings. After that, it muted to market general movement and has been trading in the tight range of 1.46-1.48. It could be establishing an accumulation phase.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

UOL TA

UOL currently near to mid term high of 6.29, establishing a bullish trend. Next support 6.12, stronger support is 5.93.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Another peer in STI, Capland, does not show any clear trend but stuck at range bound. Supports and resistances as shown:

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

TA on banks

by ckchoy

Bank stocks have good rebounds started around 8 Nov. The rebound last about 3 weeks till now and all of them have successfully breached their mid term resistances. Eg 16.8 for DBS, 9 for OCBC and 19.98 for UOB

Today all the bank counters look to face a short term resistance.
Short term support level to watch: About 17.14 for DBS, 9.01 for OCBC and 20.02 for UOB. If these levels could not be held, it may hint for further pull back to lower levels

OCBC TA

TA view for illustration purpose only.

Bank stocks rise up in anticipating US going to hike rate( tend to a bit aggressive hike ) after Trump's victory in US president election.
Technical analysis, TA show support/resistance 8.7, 8.88, 9. As of today, OCBC ranges at 8.73 - 8.84. The current uptrend may challenge the 8.88 resistance, next will be 9. We will see where OCBC facing tough resistance in short term before deciding for profit taking.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Singtel FATA

TA view for illustration purpose only.

Singtel broke immediate support 3.76 upon reported 5.6% drop of net profit in Q2.
From fundamental analysis, FA point of view, singtel dividend yield of 4 to 5% is reasonable attactive. P/E about 15 is about fair value.
For technical analysis, TA lover, next support to watch is 3.65 and 3.53.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

(source : Poems Stock Analystic)

HSI follow up after breaking down critical support

by ckchoy

Previous post HSI in danger, first sign of breaking down critical support

After breaking the critical support (about 22774). Today touched above slightly and snap back. Looks like the support is turning resistance.

HSI in danger, first sign of breaking down critical support

by ckchoy

Refer to previous post:
HSI at critical junction for mid/long term trend determination

HSI now just below 22770 support, downtrend chance might have begun, next target 21800

Golden Agri-Resources Initiated Strong Bullish Break. Time To Buy?

http://blog.traderwave.com/golden-agri-resources-bullish-break/

Swing Trading Strategy (Medium Term)

If you are a swing trader, you could be looking at riding the current upside momentum to the next key resistance of $0.50 in the weeks to months ahead.

A technical stop loss level of $0.36 should be conservative enough to ensure that any minor pullback from here wouldn’t trigger this stop loss order.

Assuming if you manage to get in at the last closing price of $0.40, you will be looking at a potential risk-reward ratio of 1:2.5.

Potential Target Level: $0.50

Entry Level: $0.40

Stop Loss Level: $0.36

HSI at critical junction for mid/long term trend determination

by ckchoy

HSI powered up from low 19639 in Jun to top 24405 in 9 Sep represented a strong uptrend. From then it is stuck within the consolidation range around 24000 - 22967.
Watch the critical resistance 24000 and then top resistance at 24405 and critical support at 22770
to determine it will continue its uptrend or break down to downtrend.

Trend for some futures this month

by Daniel Loh

1) /CL - Last month crude oil is considered bullish as indicated by CRS monthly. This month CRS indicate that crude oil is still bullish with CRS support at 47.25 and 45.66. Our prediction is barring any sharp drop on monday, this month is considered bullish for crude.

My opinion is that crude will also have a BIG Resistance at $52, the 2 times resistance from the lowest point $26. Hence my prediction is crude oil may range in between $45.66 and $52 this month, until it breakout.

Play within the range, near $52, good to go in BCS, near $45.66, good to go in BPS

2) /GC - This month the first day, Gold already opened below our CRS lines of 1323 and 1331, hence considered bearish now. This will be the resistances for this month. With the sharp drop in gold price, we dont encourage to go in BCS now, until it goes to near 1300.

For support, we think /GC might have a support at $1240-$1250 using fibonnaci @38.2% and a 10% drop from the top, which we considered a support for any index that is in a bullish market.

3) /ZN - This month is bearish. May consider going in BCS with resistances at 130'245 and 131'020

4) /ES - Still the safest of all futures products - Continue to go in BPS this month! The only repair that is needed should the plunge come is to partial roll 1 lot for every 5 lots of sell put to one lot of sell call same premium, park there for a while until panic over, then roll back to sell put again.

5) /ZC - likely to be bullish this month and support is at CRS lines 330 and 333. But going in BPS should not have much premium. Might consider going in a debit strategy ie. (Buy 1st strike ITM call, sell 1st strike OTM call) when price drops a bit to near $340 (better as /ZC has risen a bit from at start of this month). A good thing with debit spread is there is a limited loss with risk reward ratio near 1:1.

Crude oil, China, Debit Spread

by Daniel Loh

CL bottom - $26, double up resistance - $52. For speculative product, will drop about 20% from top = $40. CL will trade between $40 - $52 till Dec 2016. 2017 will trade between $50 - $60 sideways.

If we have $20k account, we can make 1% per month by selling naked 1 lot CL $37 PUT (30 days) with premiums of $0.20 - $0.30. No hedging is necessary.

If CL drops to $37, it will get assigned ITM and converted to futures. Margin needed - $3190. Hold till it goes up to $52. If we are more bullish, we can hold longer till $60. Need to roll over to following month near futures expiration date. Profit/ Loss will be realized when we roll to following month, but margin remains same at $3190.

We can also consider selling naked 1 lot CL $57 CALL (30 days) with premiums of $0.20 - $0.30 for additional 1% returns per month.

China economy bottoms 2H 2016
Invest
1)Commodities - gold, silver, copper, corn
2)China Banks
3)China related property stocks
4)China related Reits

Debit Spread
Bullish - Bull Call Spread - buy ITM call and sell OTM call
Bearish - Bear Put Spread - buy ITM put and sell OTM put

Bullish Debit spread Strategy
- May use Bull Call Spread on stocks that have triple top breakout
- buy ITM call and sell OTM call with 60 or 90 days to expiry
- set a 50% stop loss and 50% profit target

Singpost TA

For illustration purpose only

Journal HSI 2016/08/31 - preopen play

horizontal red, blue, green lines represent bid, last done and offer price respectively
vertical yellow line is 9.20am where is HSI matching. vertical brown line is at 9.30am where cash market open
refer to http://journal-cck.blogspot.sg/2016/04/journal-hsi-20160408-preopen-play.html

Golden Agri - TA

For illustration purpose only

Global Logistic Properties

For illustration purpose only
GLP - moving up

Sino Grandness - TA

by ckchoy

For illustration purpose only
Uptrend counter. Consolidated after hitting high of 0.785. Found support at 0.59. First resistance 0.655. Second resistance at 0.7

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Singpost - TA

by ckchoy

For illustration purpose only
follow up from:
http://marketsense-ckchoy.blogspot.sg/2016/04/singpost-ta.html

Upon news of CEO resign, Singpost plunged and found support around 1.424. After that it broke first resistance at 1.515, next resistance is 1.584. If it can break up the downtrend channel, (around 1.6), it may mark a bullish run.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Wingtai - TA

by ckchoy

For illustration purpose only
follow up from
http://marketsense-ckchoy.blogspot.sg/2016/04/wingtai-ta.html

After hitting high of 1.92 in Apr 2016, it trended down and hit bottom at 1.585. From there it has been rising slowly and broke first resistance of 1.655 and second resistance of 1.71. Next resistance to watch is 1.77, if it breaks up, technically it breaks up from downtrend. Looks bullish

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Sinograndness TA

For illustration purpose only
Sinograndness 在香港上市之消息带动下从0.41冲到 0.73. 过后回落至 0.585. 最近公佈強劲业绩又重回上升轨道. 近期阻力 0.73. 支持 0.65

Sinograndness surge from 0.41 to 0.73 on HK dual listing news. After that consolidated to 0.585. Recent strong result making it resume its uptrend. Short term resistance 0.73, support 0.65

April fool month over, coming is Sell in May and go away?

by ckchoy

HSI Hang Seng index hit high on 28 Apr 2016 but started to U turn down upon following news:
Nikkei 225 Futures Plunge as BOJ Keeps Monetary Policy Unchanged

HSI is the asia leading indicator, Asia's markets including STI may follow the correction coincide with 'Sell in May and go away' effect. Investors sell shares after XD in April/May.
If 21080 can hold, it may resume its uptrend channel established since mid Feb 2016.

Journal HSI 2016/04/08 - preopen play

horizontal red, blue, green lines represent bid, last done and offer price respectively
vertical yellow line is 9.20am where is HSI matching. vertical brown line is at 9.30am where cash market open



Find trade opportunity between 9.20am to 9.30am. ie long below blue line or short above blue line.. for safe play can long below red line and short above green line.
When cash market open at 9.30am, futures level will converge to the 3 lines.
Take note that provided SSE futures market don't swing wildly.
Upon cash market open, can close position.

Wingtai - TA

For illustration purpose only
Wingtai quietly climb steadily despite bad sentiment/market pull back in between.
Broke critical 1.81 resistance.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

Singpost - TA

For illustration purpose only
Singpost
resistances - 1.625, 1.693, 1.764, 1.828, 1.897
supports - 1.557, 1.492, 1.424, 1.353, 1.285

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

HSBC at multi year low

For illustration purpose only
HK-HSBC at multi year low

《大时代》的疯股神的＂股票必胜法＂的含义

股票必胜法：
贪心输钱赢这句的意思是：就是说贪心的人输了钱到最后他就是真正的赢家,
输血不输钱这句的意思是：看好在买输了血都不能输钱因为钱是你翻身的本钱,
人人去输血这句的意思是：反其道而行别人买跌你买升，赢钱又赢血,
杀人不刮风这句的意思是：在股市里杀死个人很容易,
下雨去离岛这句的意思是：隔岸观火坐收渔人之利,
离家喝牛奶这句的意思是：无论你在那个股市里你都有钱赚,
见人领遗产这句的意思是：人人都输钱就你赢钱你见谁都找他要钱,
出狱嫌钱腥这句的意思是：就是说你玩归玩不要犯法,
快乐无人格这句的意思是：无论天塌下来你都要有个快乐的心面对,
出家无工钱这句的意思是：赚够了就要撤不要泥足深陷,
攻无不克战无不胜矣! 这句的意思是:懂了股票必胜法你就不会输。完

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2016

https://www.clsa.com/special/fsi/2016/

Actual