Outlook of China Market

source: http://robinhosmartrade.blogspot.sg/2014/04/outlook-of-china-market.html

Monday, April 28, 2014

Outlook of China Market

The China stock market has been declining for the past 5 years since it topped in 2008 during the peak of the global financial crisis. While the charts is showing that the technical could be bottoming investors are still concern about the structural challenges facing china. It is going to take some time before it becomes clear whether China is succeeding in its pursuit of reform, in the meantime China has to navigate the minefield of defaulting "trust" wealth product, excessive local government debts, shadow banking loans and the like. The key risk this year could be the weakening of the property market which will affect property developers with high financing leverage. Many are asking whether it is time to start investing in the current undervalued China stocks. I expect a big "flush" triggered by economic event that will take the China stock index close to the global financial crisis low before the China market bottom. It is important to watch the chart lines!

10 Tips For First-Time Entrepreneurs

         

Posted by Sarah McKinney on September 16, 2013 at 9:00 PM

          

I didn’t plan to be an entrepreneur. I’d just moved back to Los Angeles after spending two and a half years in San Francisco while attending Presidio Graduate School, an MBA program dedicated to a triple bottom line perspective (i.e., people + profit + planet), and was working for one of my dream companies as a consultant focused on social impact measurement. I’d received the offer letter the day I graduated, which I took as a sign that I was headed in the right direction. I enjoyed the work, but my thoughts kept drifting back to the business my team developed for our final project at Presidio—a Yelp for sustainability resources. I saw the problem all around me: people wasting time searching for the best information and resources related to social and environmental impact, and duplicating efforts because there was no central, open-access destination to share.
A starting point was needed, and it had to be crowdsourced because the space was too dynamic for any one person to keep track of. This belief continued to well up inside of me. I'd wake up at 5 a.m. excited by a fresh idea, I’d turn down social plans so I could work nights and weekends, and the chalkboard wall in my kitchen was starting to look like a scene fresh out of A Beautiful Mind. When the consulting job ended, the path forward was clear: I knew I had to follow my passion, and create a tech startup. In August, we released the beta version of Amp's platform.
The past year and a half has been an amazing ride filled with many lessons. If I could go back in time and give myself advice, here are 10 things I’d say:
1. Surround yourself with inspiring people—avoid naysayers.
People seek out the information that reinforces their decisions in life. When you commit to following your passion and taking a big risk it can feel threatening to those who have chosen a safer route. As you express your enthusiasm pay close attention to who’s trying to squash it, and remember that this most likely has nothing to do with you but is instead a projection of their own insecurities and fears. Be compassionate, but minimize time spent with these people – especially to start. Surround yourself with the ones who say, “Go for it!” and develop new friendships with other entrepreneurs. Go to events, ask them to coffee, learn how they’ve managed to stay inspired and solve problems. Doing this will permanently change your perspective on life, and alter your conception of what’s possible. I promise.
2. Ask questions—it’s the only way to learn.
You can’t worry about sounding stupid, and you most certainly shouldn’t try to figure everything out in isolation. Do your research. Know what you don’t know. Then find people who have the answers, and be direct with your questions. If you don’t know people who’ve had success doing what you’re trying to do, use your network and ask for intros. Time is of essence, and I’ve found this strategy to be the fastest way of getting from point A to point B. Schedule time to meet in-person or speak by phone—email isn’t good for exploratory learning. Don’t pretend like you understand things you don’t. Swallow your pride. People like to help, and you need to build your network of support. I can’t tell you how many “dumb” questions I continue to ask our developers. It’s a necessary requirement.
3.  Find a solid teammate ASAP—two brains are better than one.
Right around the time I decided to launch a crowdfunding campaign as a way to assess demand and raise enough money to build the beta version of Amp’s platform, an email that was sent out to the Presidio community by a previous classmate caught my eye. What began as a casual correspondence soon revealed a shared passion for Amp’s solution. His thinking consistently impressed me, and his experience managing IT projects from within startups and large enterprise complimented my market research background. His even-keel style grounded my enthusiastic and extroverted personality. I offered him equity, a co-founder title, and I feel very grateful for how well we’ve worked together. It’s led to higher quality work, and taught me a lot about myself.
4. Nail your mission and vision.
Amp’s mission is to organize the best information and resources available within the ever-growing sustainability sector, and be the starting point for individuals interested in harnessing the power of business to drive social and environmental progress. Our vision is to become the largest peer-reviewed sustainability resource directory in the world, dramatically increasing efficiencies and reducing duplicated efforts at a time when solutions are desperately needed. How was that? Let us know—and feel free to share yours!
5. View all feedback as a compliment—time spent is a gift.
When an individual stops what they’re doing to think about your company, regardless of what their specific feedback is, take it as a compliment. NEVER be defensive. Instead, take in what people have to say and let it marinate. In certain instances a thoughtful response is totally appropriate, but most of the time you’ll want to avoid immediately taking up more of their time. Thank them, no matter what they said. You don’t have to ask them for advice again if you don’t want to. There is a noticeable difference between people who give constructive criticism in an effort to be helpful, and those who act like know-it-alls in an attempt to build their own self-esteem. Watch for that, and avoid going back to the latter.
6. Look for patterns in advice—then filter, prioritize, and take action.
Do you keep hearing the same criticism, confusion or suggestion from multiple people? Pay attention. Mark it down. Consider making a massive pivot if you have to. Talk it through with your partner, and the small circle of people from whom you regularly seek advice. What actions need to be taken and what would the implications be? What are the risks associated with NOT doing this? You must be able to articulate your thinking in the areas investors will likely poke holes. Don’t be taken by surprise, or avoid the difficult thinking required to sort these issues through. Maybe you can’t solve them right away—that’s okay, and is why prioritizing is so important.
7.  Find the fun—in even the most menial tasks.
If I can’t get excited about what I’m doing, nobody else will. Knowing this doesn’t make it easy. Leading up to our beta release I spent weeks entering resources (i.e., links, media, documents). Hours and days passed—I felt like I was in some kind of data-entry time warp. But I streamed music to lift my mood, and picked up the phone when I thought I was going to lose it—laughing with friends always helps. Sometimes I’ll procrastinate until I can come from a place of enthusiasm. Revising pitch materials for the gazillionth time is like this for me. All of the sudden, I’ll wake up one day and want to get lost in PowerPoint slides. There’s an energetic thing at play, for sure. Invite the fun in, and it will eventually find you.
8. Build your personal brand—authenticity is key.
There are hugely varying opinions here, and I sought out a lot of advice because my online presence as a writer was growing alongside Amp—I was writing articles for Triple Pundit, GOOD and PandoDaily, and sharing my poetry via a blog called Intent. It felt wonderful to be following all of my passions, but I worried that I would confuse people or give the impression that I was less committed to Amp because I had other interests. I could see the common thread running through my pursuits, but would other people get it? I wasn’t sure. I created a personal site as a way to better manage my story (and Google-ability), but ultimately the growth has come from accepting my inability to control what other people think of me, committing to being true to myself, and accepting whatever happens as a result. Because if I don’t believe in myself, who else will? Put yourself out there in a way that feels authentic for you, and see what happens.
9. Stay in today—crazy shit happens you can’t predict.
I’m a big fan of founders creating a business plan, financial model, pitch deck and executive summary. While painful at times, doing this yourself—not outsourcing—forces you to know your business intimately. Having a detailed plan, however, cannot become an excuse for rigidity. Things never work out exactly as you planned (our developer sent me this, furthering this point, after I’d spent months hounding him for being behind schedule). Stay as present-time as possible. What happens today informs tomorrow, and you have to be open and flexible to keep moving down the right path. One of my advisors once told me, “The situation is less important than how you respond to it.” I’ve held onto that.
10. Celebrate the small wins—the next challenge is just around the corner.
Creating a business can be challenging which is why it’s so important to celebrate the small victories along the way. I was thrilled when Paul Hawken, one of the biggest names in the sustainability movement, replied to one of my emails. Finishing our pitch video, meeting our fundraising goal on Indiegogo, connecting with other entrepreneurs at Summit Outside, releasing the beta version of Amp’s platform—all are worthy of celebration. I am fully aware that in many ways our work has just begun—user engagement and marketplace transactions will be key to our success. But every once in awhile, if you are an entrepreneur, make sure to pause and acknowledge the road you’ve traveled. Many people quit before they make it to wherever you are. Right now.

6 Reasons Why You Should Buy The Index

1) Because Warren Buffett Says So! 

"The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners – neither he nor his “helpers” can do that – but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal."

2) Because Indexs are Low Cost and Unit Trusts are High Cost

"My advice to the trustee could not be more simple: Put 10% of the cash in short-term government bonds and 90% in a very low-cost S&P 500 index fund. (I suggest Vanguard’s.) I believe the trust’s long-term results from this policy will be superior to those attained by most investors – whether pension funds, institutions or individuals – who employ high-fee managers."

If you purchase the STI ETF you are only paying 0.30 of a percent each year as compared to 1-3% for Unit Trusts.

3) Even Warren Buffett Himself Has a Hard Time Beating the Index

Take from his recent letter to shareholders, over the last 5 years the Index has outperformed him 4 times! However Warren Buffett is still a master that I respect, considering that his long term returns are twice of the index. Sadly I know I'm not him and I can never produce such amazing results.

4) The Index Provides a Decent Return

Over the period from 1965 to 2013 the S&P gave investors an average annual returns of about 9.8%, that's great! Looking at our local STI ETF, it gave about 7.89% annual returns since 2002 which is pretty decent too.

5) The STI is Cheaper than the S&P 500

The STI is only selling for 13 times earnings, which is cheaper than the S&P which is selling for over 17 times earnings. The dividend yield is getting close to 3% which is also higher than S&P's 2% yield.

6) Because its Easy to Invest in the Index

You don't have to spend a lot of time analyzing the business nor the economics, the time saved can be well spent doing the things you love.

Over the last 5 year the S&P 500 gained over 170%, that's about 25% compounded returns.

When will this bull end? I really don't know. But as long as the music keeps playing, we dance.

Channel 8 TV interview 4月7日第8频道《早安你好》骆伟嵩 现场采访总结：美国市场会影响新加坡吗？

1)     海指上周五全天在3206至3228点之间波动，收于3212点，滑落7点（0.23%）。请总结本地股市在第二季第一周的整体表现。

·         没上太多，但最近表现不错。11天里涨了9天。3050跑上来，180点。

·         整个亚洲股市都不错。马来西亚1820点到1860点，香港21000到22500，日本14000到15000点。

·         几个星期前每个朋友担心Crimea的和利率可能上升的问题，

·         反而是美国最近的表现平凡。Nasdaq已经掉了200点。

·         我看大家这几天要关注的是美国如果走弱，亚洲股市的表现如何。

2）有市场人士认为，海指已出现＂超买＂现象，短期内或会滑落，不过中期而言走势向好，可能冲至3300点。您怎么看？

·         想法一样。调整都是短期的。到了3250-3300点，鼓励先套利。

·         跌到3150点的支持价位，再观察。

·         虽然海指现在有点高，但上升乐观的。长期下跌的领域比如房地产领域和大众商品领域的   股票都跑了上来，对新加坡股市注入蛮多信心。

3）来宝集团Noble Grp 与中粮集团达成脱售农产品业务部门多数权益和联营计划协议。瑞信给予它的评级提升至＂表现优于大市＂，目标价大幅调高到$1.50。您的解读？
-last Fri $1.28,跌3.5分

·         $1.50是有可能的。因为有利好的基本面消息。特别是当有公司要收购股份。

·         但是要达到$1.50有几样事情要留意。

·         Noble可能会回到在1.20-$1.25之间。这个是关键区域。

·         如果Noble 一直都在$1.20-$1.25之间不跌破$1.20，这只股票就有机会突破$1.30，迈向$1.50。但是到了$1.50就要非常小心。

4）新交所上周五发布＂石油与天然气类股报告＂，哪些讯息值得股民留意？您依然看好这一板块的上涨潜能吗？

·         这个季度的石油与天然气公司表现可能不怎么理想。

·         石油这个季度有可能走弱，保持在85-100之间。

·         天然气上个季度有一正子因为美国冬天的问题，冲到了$6.50，结果现在跌回了$4.50。这是季节性的。我们觉得石油的需要这个季度会减弱。这可能会影响这个领域的股票。

5）大多数市场的证券指数主要都以当地公司组成。而新加坡作为亚洲的国际金融中心，却有着一个独特的国际化证券市场。海指的构造展示了什么特性？

·         海指确实有国际化的证券市场。在这30只成分股当中，只有4只成分股的盈利纯粹来自新加坡

·         今年表现最好的股票是Olam Int'l，Thai Beverage，这两间公司主要收入来自海外市场。

·         为什么？因为新加坡市场太小。如果本地公司没有想过拓展市场，就不能生存。营业额绝对没办法上升。

·         长期可以投资的股票，一定要有成长。向海外发展。

6)迈入第二季了，谈您对本地股市表现/走势的预测。
下来的阻力点和支持水平在？

·         会有一次调整。美国股市调整可能会有10-15%的调整。但鼓励大家一定不要错过机会进场。

·         这绝对不是熊市的开始。海指的支持就子啊3000-3050点。阻力就在3250-3300点。

7）在华尔街股市方面，美国股市周五大跌，道指下跌160点（跌幅1%）至16413点，创3月13日以来最大单日跌幅。原因何在？

·         a）非农业薪金报告数字比预期的数据还要差。虽然数字不是差到离谱，但是市场似乎在星期五之前都觉得数字不错。预期的期望没达到造成大琼斯大掉160点。

·         
b）最近科技领域的股票走弱。Nasdaq星期五掉了100多点。这个滑落是因为很多人估计这个月科技股的盈利报告可能不好。我们接下来要留意这些股票业绩如何。

8）美国近期还有哪些值得留意/关注的财经讯息和金融消息？怎么影响或左右区域和本地股市呢？

1）  大家要关注两点。

2）  美国这个月的盈利报告如何。目前，很多人认为科技有关的股票盈利都可能不好。我们接下来就看到底是不是如此。我们也要研究其他领域的股票表现如何。如果不好，这个下滑可能持续到5月。

3）  FED 的QE政策

9）崭新的一周又开始了。请预测稍后开盘后的走势。

·         美国星期五大掉，我判断亚洲股市都会走弱，很有可能开始就会有压力。但是我要鼓励大家留意的是是否海指有机会反弹。大家可以乘机看新加坡股市的力量。如果美国大掉没对新加坡有影响，那证明新加坡股市相当强，可能还有上涨的空间。

无聊的我

股票有起也有落，股市有涨也有跌。不要因为一次买错看错而沮丧，也不要因股市涨跌而被打倒。
我常开口闭口就谈股市，可能会有人觉得我很烦，会觉得我为$疯狂。我也不知道是不是职业病、无聊或是喜欢用股市做比喻开玩笑。
一个人（现在）其实只是股市（人生）中的一个非常渺小部份。在此可能应该不需要一直围绕着自己（现在）而忽略整个市场（人生）。要谈股市（人生）真的很无限也谈何容易，我们可以选择放弃或继续。看到这里我真的觉得我废话连篇，只是希望读了之后你能一小笑:)