Daniel Loh on Air 171130 - no sign of bear coming yet

Summary

US market may face correction, but afterward market still healthy will rebound after retreat.STI range
3300 - 3450

Overall world market at relatively high level, suggest not to enter market for now.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Daniel Loh on Air 171116

Summary

STI range
3300 - 3450

Cautious in the following sector
Bank - anticipation of interest hike euphoria could be over
oil related counter - oil may trend down

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Daniel Loh on Air 171019 - cautious in equity

Summary

Cautious on US market as it runs up too high.

Crude oil
strong resistance at 55

STI
Strong support 3200
Resistance 3350
At current situation, suggest profit taking

Cautious on Hong Kong Market as it has run up too fast. HSI above 28000 level is considered expensive. Suggest to take profit.

Market may near the last phase of bull market.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Geo Energy FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.355, 0.310, 0.28, 0.255, 0.225, 0.19, 0.135, 0.12

FA
Commodities sector is as good as a defensive sector as of now. We may not expect a commodities boom like old age, as current economy is more on technology driven rather than conventional business driven like energy and resources.
But on the bright side, China economy is showing sign of picking up, if it does, the huge demand from China population will spur the growth of commodities price too..and I believe price will be slowly strengthen up

At current price of 0.27, it trades at P/E about 5 - 10 (average up the yearly profit). If it were to hit the fair value price of 15, it will be 0.81 ( from P/E 5 to 15 ) or 0.4 ( from P/E 10 to 15 ). But because of commodities and resources not a favorable sectors now, it is good we use P/E 10 as fair value.. so the best potential for the price to reach P/E 10 is about 0.27 to 0.54 

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

CSE Global FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.565, 0.52, 0.485, 0.455, 0.415, 0.36, 0.33
After breaking down the long term support level at 0.415, CSE establishing a long term bearish trend. If have faith and wish to buy on dips, suggest to wait for a bottom consolidation line to be formed first, the consolidation bottom level should hang near to flat level for at least 1 to 6 months depending on the volume indication.
Conclusion: bearish

recent activities and news that could be the main reason for CSE price being beaten down:
- 2Q17 recorded net loss of $13.8M
- CSE to pay US$12m as settlement for a potential civil liability to U.S. Department of the Treasury' s Office of Foreign Assets Control.
- The alleged violations arose from payment in USD for rendering non-US goods to Iran.

- CSE Global is expected to recognise a 2Q17 net loss arising from the one-off charge.

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

AEM FATA

current price 2.79
TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 2.96, 2.77, 2.57, 2.34, 2.05, 1.74, 1.4, 1.18
It needs to break above 2.96 all time hight before it can resume its bullish uptrend

Using P/E to guide the fair value:
Current price 2.79 at P/E around 10.8
When it hit fair value 15, estimated at 2.79 * (15/10.8) = 3.88

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Mid term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

A-Smart FATA

TA ( Technical Analysis )
Support and resistance as shown: 0.84, 0.795, 0.740, 0.7, 0.64, 0.575, 0.505

Mid to long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

FA ( Fundamental Analysis )

China Everbright Water TA - yet to show better hint

Current price 0.46

TA
After touching high of 0.510, it retreating to break 0.49 support, 0.47 support and now reaching 0.455 support. 0.455 is a relatively strong support as the line cut this level multiple times, next support are 0.428 and 0.405. However, volume is not so encouraging to give any hints of next movement (whether it is bottoming)

Mid term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

DBS - consolidation upon negative news

On 4 Aug 2017 DBS share price reacted accordingly to the following negative news:
DBS shares down on warning of higher provisions over O&G stress
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/dbs-shares-down-on-warning-of-higher-provisions-over-og-stress

Technical charts analysis
After DBS share price successfully broke above 21.5 multi year high, it marched to high at 22.25, from there it broke down again the 21.5 support and subsequently below 21 mark.
The next immediate support is 20.55
and the stronger immediate support is at 20.24
next supports will be 19.45, 18.73 and 18.13 as shown below:

Mid term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

Daniel Loh on Air 170727 - No bear market this year

Summary

Continue stay cautious on US market as it runs up too high.

Question on whether bear market will happen this year? His reply:
No bear market this year as so far there is no such symptom 
Bear market phases:
1st phase - sliding down quietly ( usually unnoticeable )
2nd phase - panic selling ( prices move down sharp and furious )
3rd phase - capitulation ( investors become hopeless and sell everything )

Oil - short term is reaching resistance. It may pull back to $44 region in short term. Stay cautious with oil related counters.

Expect STI to trade within this range 3280 - 3400 till year end.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

OCBC in long term bullish trend

OCBC broke up multi year high resistance at 11.2 which was set in 2013. It is in long term bullish trend

Long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

DBS TA - bullish for now

After breaking up the resistance at 20 in May 2017, it traded in the range of 20-21. Upon breaking up the resistance at 21 recently in Jul 2017, now it is heading to next multi year high at 21.5 which was set in Jul 2015.
From TA point of view it is in bullish uptrend, watch for this critical resistance 21.5, if it does break up convincingly (well above 21.5 and held up for week) then it will be very bullish because it has no resistance reference from the past.  If it does not, it may head back to the trading range of 20-21.

Long term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only

Daniel Loh on Air 170713 - cautious in equity, favour gold

Summary

Cautious on US market as it runs up too high.
Wait for deeper correction ( around 5% ) before considering to invest in US market.
S&P 500 resistance at 2500

Gold - strong support at 1200. At current level, it may rebound.

Looking to invest in sectors which have not run up yet in Singapore market eg
Telco, Commodities, Medical

Cautious on Hong Kong Market as it has run up too fast. Suggest to take profit.

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Talga Gold LTD (ASX) TA update (short term)

After touching all time high at 0.915 it pulled back and breached 1st support at 0.7 and subsequently it breached 2nd support at 0.6 support. On 20 Jun it was trading near the 3rd support around 0.52. We bought in at 0.53, the lowest it hit was around 0.515. Today, 28 Jun, it is touching the first resistance at 0.61, 2nd resistance is 0.7 and there is an intermediate resistance around 0.655.

Short term analysis (source : Poems Live Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only.

Talga Gold LTD (ASX) TA update (short term)

After touching 0.6 support at 5 May 2017, it rebounded strongly to 0.8, then pull back and today it touches below 0.6 support.
Short term resistance/support to watch 0.7, 0.6 and 0.52

Short term analysis (source : Poems Historical Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only.

Daniel Loh on Air 170601

Summary

US overnight dragged down by banks, about -2%, caused by profit warning. cautious advice to investors that invest in banks

Oil also dragged, drops about $2. Continue expecting trading range to be 44 -52, ie long on support, short on resistance
At current level at 48, he continue to have bearish view on oil and may trend down to revisit 44

Continue favour REITs

Shanghai index strong support 3000 - 3050, suggest to long around this range. Overall big range is 3000 - 3300

Source : Radio Capital 95.8 FM

Talga Gold LTD (ASX) TA update

After making all time high at 0.915, Talga is consolidating down and establishing a downtrend channel 
Short term support at 0.6. 
It needs to break above 0.7 - 0.75 to come back to bullish uptrend

Short term analysis (source : Poems Historical Chart ) TA view for illustration purpose only.

Singtel TA

Singtel enjoyed a good run-up since Jan this year, after breaking up the range of 3.66 - 3.72, it moved up to a trading range of 3.72 - 3.85 then 3.85 - 4.
Recently it moved back down fast, as of today it is near to the lower level of 2nd range of 3.85 - 3.72. For a defensive good dividend yield play, this counter is one of the good choices (potential grow ie capital gain plus dividend return). Accumulation may start from here... if break below 3.71, next trading range will be 3.6 - 3.71 with mid price about 3.66
TA view for illustration purpose only.

Short to mid term analysis (source : Poems Historical Chart )

CSE Global TA

For illustration purpose only.

Talga Gold LTD (ASX) TA

After breaking out from 0.35 resistance, Talga marches up to the range of 0.35 - 0.435 for a period 10 Jan 2017 to 27 Mar 2017. Upon breaking up the 0.435 resistance there is no visible resistance until 0.77 which was set during 5 years ago around Apr 2012.
This few days observation, the range is 0.5 - 0.61 with mid range about 0.555
As of now 10.56am 10 Apr 2017, it quoted at 0.57
TA view for illustration purpose only.

Long term chart (source : Poems Historical Chart )

Short term analysis (source : Poems Historical Chart )

Singpost TA

Long term chart from May 2013 to Apr 2017 shows a big support at 1.308. This support level is very important as if it cannot hold, it may trigger further downside pressure and further price weaknesses.

Short term chart shows it has been in the big range of 1.37 - 1.65 until recently 10 Feb 2017, upon poor quarterly results announcement, it gapped down from 1.49 to 1.37. After than it went lower and touched 1.305 low which is the long term big support.

Downtrend? Range?
From then, Singpost's chart has turned from range bound to downtrend as show in the downtrend channel. In order to shrug off from downtrend channel, it needs to clear up the 1.37 resistance and firmly stand above.
TA view for illustration purpose only.

Long term chart (source : Poems Historical Chart )

Short term analysis (source : Poems Historical Chart )

Ezion to continue on uptrend channel?

TA view for illustration purpose only.

After hitting low of 0.21 in Sep 2016, Ezion reversed up to uptrend channel. Recently it hit 0.435 which is near to the upper (resistance) channel and pulling back. Today it hit the lower (support) channel around 0.385. This could be a good short term support price if Ezion to continue stay in the uptrend channel.

(source : Poems Historical Chart )

CLSA Feng Shui Index 2017

https://www.clsa.com/special/fsi/2017/

Actual