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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: August 2012
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

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Wednesday 22 August 2012

苹果不会告诉你的10件事


012年 08月 21日 07:29
苹果不会告诉你的10件事

下是苹果公司(Apple)不可能告诉你的关于其产品和业务的10件事,从客户服务到应用软件安全,甚至还有它的产品如何影响我们的人际关系。

1.“我们的客户疲惫不堪。”
拥有首款iPhone或iPad最初的所有兴奋很快让位于分析师所称的“升级疲劳”──即使是苹果最忠实的顾客也会觉得不断地稳步推出新机型很烦人。在过去20年中拥有25件苹果产品的科技顾问帕琴•巴尔斯(Patchen Barrs)说,实际上,当人们购买苹果的最新产品时,该公司通常已在准备它的换代产品了。“我们从他们那里买的每样东西都已经过时,”他说。不妨来数数看:从2001年起,已经有了六款iPod,两款iPod mini,六款iPod Nano,四款iPod Shuffle和四款iPod Touch。从2007年起,苹果已经推出了五款iPhone,2010年至今推出了三款iPad。

当然,新机型有其优点:它们通常更纤薄、速度更快、而且有更多功能,例如更好的摄像头和改善的屏幕质量。苹果曾说,这种改进足以说明推出新机型的快速步伐是合理的。(例如,今年3月,苹果的发言人特鲁迪•马勒(Trudy Muller)说,最新款iPad具有“令人惊艳”的屏幕显示效果。)但这个理由不足以安抚某些手头紧张的顾客。根据英国的Marketing Magazine最近对2,000人进行的一项调查,几乎50%的顾客都说自己越来越不愿购买新产品,因为担心它们很快会被更新的款式淘汰。苹果拒绝就本文置评。

专家说,苹果不光是推出新产品:软件升级也会在不知不觉中推动人们购买新硬件。上个月,苹果推出了一款新的Airplay软件,它实际上能将苹果产品连接起来,并且能够在Apple TV上播放电脑上的视频。但是新的Airplay不兼容2011年中期以前购买的iMac和MacBookAir电脑。有些苹果电脑用户在网上表达了他们的不快。一位愤怒的苹果电脑顾客写道:“我不关心你们的产品淘汰计划,但新软件没有理由不与刚推出一两年的产品兼容。”

2.“当心那款应用软件。”

红果(Smurfberries)──作为蓝精灵(Smurfs)主要营养来源的虚拟红色水果──听上去可能很便宜,但累积下来的花销也会很可观。据《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)报道,马里兰州洛克维尔市(Rockville)的8岁男孩麦迪逊•凯(Madison Kay)用家里的iPad玩 “蓝精灵村庄”(Smurfs’ Village)游戏时,不经意间花了1,400美元购买红果。麦迪逊的母亲投诉后,得到了一次性退款。这些游戏可以从App Store中下载,并且被称为“免费增值版”。著有多本科技文化类书籍的戴蒙•布朗(Damon Brown)说,它们可以免费玩,但在一定时间后或达到某个等级后就要花钱。在蓝爸爸(Papa Smurf)的指导下,像麦迪逊这样的玩家可以选择购买红果解锁蓝精灵和成长配方以建造自己的蓝精灵村庄。

3.“我们会妨碍你的人际关系。”

至少对于一部分夫妻来说,吃饭时用iPhone查看Facebook更新是件烦人的事情。根据移动安全公司LookOut最近的一项报告,每五个人中就有一个人在做爱后会伸手去拿手机,这是21世纪的人用以代替“事后一支烟”的方式。纽约的治疗师厄休拉•奥夫曼(Ursula Ofman)说,这只是一个更极端的例子,说明智能手机已经成为人们关系中的第三者。“人们会想出各种办法回到自己的私人空间,”她说。“但是如果某人在卧室中都要查看iPhone,这显然是个问题。”

有些人与上帝的关系也被他们口袋中──或教堂长凳上邻座的口袋中──这种熟悉的滴滴声打断。LookOut的另一项调查发现,在宗教活动中,每10个人就有一个人会看手机。华盛顿礼仪学校(Protocol School of Washington)的执行董事克里斯•扬(Chris Young)说:“人们甚至不再将其看作违反礼仪的行为了。他们将手机看作自己的一部分。”

除了个人责任和礼仪,还有其他理论来解释为什么人们无法放下他们的iPhone。“苹果的产品让人上瘾”,《自我紊乱:了解并克服我们的技术瘾》(iDisorder: Understanding Our Obsession with Technology and Overcoming Its Hold on Us)一书作者拉里•罗森(Larry Rosen)说。实际上,许多用户都意识到他们对iPhone的依赖。根据斯坦福大学(Stanford University)2010年的一项调查,约25%的人将iPhone看作“危险的诱惑”,41%的人说,丢失iPhone会是“一个悲剧”。

4.“用我们的产品你可能要花更多钱。”

苹果产品不仅比竞争对手的产品更贵,人们使用它们时花的钱也更多。例如,据晨星(Morningstar)分析师迈克尔•霍德尔(Michael Hodel)估计,iPhone用户平均每月的手机账单比其他预付费智能手机用户高10%以上──前者为90美元,而后者为81美元。iPad用户在电子商务网站上花的钱往往也多于其他平板电脑的用户。根据个性化产品推荐公司RichRelevance最近的一项研究,iPad用户每份订单的支出为158美元──是所有产品用户中订单支出最高的──相比之下,其他移动设备用户每份订单的支出为105美元。

苹果用户为何会如此挥霍?有人说,iPad感觉就像一家高端商店──等同于虚拟的萨克斯第五大道(Saks Fifth Avenue)或巴尼斯(Barney’s)。还有人说,这是因为iPad易于使用:“iPad是一种非常直观而引人注目的产品,”技术咨询公司Fino的总监马克•艾森伯格(Mark Eisenberg)说。“就像亚马逊(Amazon)的一键购买一样,苹果的iPad鼓励人们冲动消费。” 市场营销公司Luxury Institute LLC的首席执行长米尔顿•佩德拉萨(Milton Pedraza)说,另外,那些付得起499美元或更多钱购买iPad的人的可支配收入可能比购买安卓(Android)平板电脑的人更高。

5.“我们需要另一种变革性产品。”

升级疲劳并非批评者不喜欢苹果接连推出新产品的唯一原因,有人说新产品不够新。投资者对苹果的产品线越来越失去耐心,并呼吁另一场科技革命。BTIG经纪公司的科技分析师沃尔特•皮耶塞克(Walt Piecyk)说,苹果是时候重塑手机市场了。他说,价格低于649美元的全新苹果手机将是一个良好的开始,649美元是iPhone 4S的起始零售价格。其他财力雄厚的科技公司也准备用自己的智能手机与iPhone竞争。据报道,Facebook也正在考虑开发自己的手机,而去年收购了摩托罗拉(Motorola)的谷歌(Google)正在开发自己的手机。(Facebook和谷歌拒绝置评。)

苹果的iPhone销售依然强劲,但皮耶塞克说,没有哪家公司应该如此依赖一种手机。根据投资银行Piper Jaffray的研究,实际上,iPhone占了苹果50%以上的销售额。“还记得诺基亚(Nokia)、摩托罗拉和RIM领导手机市场的时候吗?”他说。“市场份额的变化可能非常迅速。”皮耶塞克说,手机应该重视低端市场的另一个原因是:运营商对消费者提供高额补贴的日子已经为时不多。他说,如果发生这种情况,多数人不会为买一部手机花600美元。苹果不认同这种说法。今年2月,一位公司发言人指出,尽管iPhone 4S的价格很高,但它仍然受到了全球顾客的热捧。

6.“iPhone定价过高──即使是与iPad相比。”

iPhone的价格比iPad便宜数百美元,但专家称,苹果的手机利润率比平板电脑高得多。以下是利润的详细分解:根据苹果本月早些时候在与三星电子公司(Samsung Electronics Co.)的专利权官司中提交的报表,苹果公司2010年4月至2012年3月在美国销售的iPhone毛利润率最高为58%,而iPad的利润率只有23%-32%。据科技研究公司IHS iSuppli称,苹果生产32GB iPhone 4S的成本为215美元,不到初始零售价格的1/3。但生产32GB 新iPad的成本为375美元,约为其零售价的一半。因此,技术顾问杰夫•卡根(Jeff Kagan)说,消费者为iPhone支付的溢价高于iPad。“iPhone贵吗?是的,”卡根说。“它的定价过高吗?是的。”他说,消费者认为他们为iPhone支付的价格更便宜,是因为无线运营商吸收了初始零售价的2/3;但是保留iPhone并在初始的两年期合同到期后续约的顾客将花更多的钱去用一部旧手机。

7.“不要被我们的软式推销愚弄。”

不久前,卡迈恩•加洛(Carmine Gallo)走进加利福尼亚州普莱森顿(Pleasanton)那家玻璃门脸的苹果商店,店门口的迎宾人员希望与他的两个孩子谈谈他们可以在iPad上看的迪士尼(Disney)电影。这位雇员吸引住两个孩子之后才转向加洛。“这是一种极为巧妙的营销技巧,”著有《苹果的经验》(The Apple Experience)一书的加洛说。艺术品经销商詹姆斯•奥哈洛伦(James O’Halloran)在旧金山苹果商店的经历稍有不同,当时他拿着一部坏掉的iPod走近天才吧(Genius Bar)的一名服务人员。“它将是一块很酷的镇纸。”这位天才吧服务员告诉奥哈洛伦,并马上递给他一部新iPod。

专家说,这两个故事说明了两件事:苹果员工知道,如果孩子想要苹果的产品,他们的父母也会想要──而且他们从不向顾客灌输专业术语。“他们总是从询问你的生活方式和需求开始。”《品牌,就是戒不掉!》(Brandwashed)的作者马丁•林德斯特伦(Martin Lindstrom)说。“他们从情感上吸引你,因此很难对他们的产品说不。”他说,其他电子商店专注于价格和技术规格,但正在慢慢地从苹果商店得到启发。

专家说,闪亮而富有未来感的店面设计是苹果零售秘诀的另一个重要部分。“进入这些壮观神奇的零售环境能让人们忘记外部世界。”得克萨斯大学圣安东尼奥分校(University of Texas in San Antonio)的市场营销学教授蒂娜•M•劳里(Tina M. Lowrey)说。“他们像信教一样崇拜苹果的产品。”这种方法看来很管用:根据市场研究公司Asymco 2012年的一项调查,苹果是美国主要连锁店中每平方英尺销售额最高的商家。该调查发现,在截至2011年8月的四个季度中,苹果全球每平方英尺的销售额为5,626美元,相比之下,商城店铺每平方英尺的销售额仅为330美元。

8.“我们的功能落后了。”

一些消费者希望苹果的iPhone效仿安卓(Android)市场,推出更大屏幕的手机。住在华盛顿特区(Washington D.C.)的教师南茜•巴彻勒(Nancy Batchelor)最近放弃了她的iPhone,因为它太小了。“我真的无法用这部手机看任何东西,”她说。“我觉得自己老了,而且更糟的是,手指太笨了。”(她42岁。)巴彻勒有许多其他选择:摩托罗拉的Droid Razr Maxx和HTC的One X显示屏均为4.3英寸。三星的SII显示屏达4.8英寸──这让iPhone的3.5英寸显示屏相形见绌。有此观点的不止她一人。评价网站TechRadar.com说:“3.5英寸屏幕已经过时了。”

iPhone已推出五年,并经历了几次升级,一些分析师认为,iPhone开始让人感到过时了。TechBargains.com 的总裁杨庄(音)说,人们经常能看到iPhone用户在星巴克(Starbucks)里试着给电池充电。三星的新SIII有可拆卸电池,这让消费者可以随身带着备用电池。此外,粉丝指出,SIII的电力比iPhone足──在3G环境下,通话时间超过10小时,而iPhone只有8小时。“三星SIII是目前iPhone最有力的竞争对手。”技术分析师卡根说。“在许多方面,它甚至比iPhone更好。”对喜欢畅聊的人,Razr可以提供21.5小时的通话时间。

iPhone 4S最大的新功能之一──语音搜索引擎Siri──并不总能符合顾客的期望。根据Piper Jaffray 最近进行的一项研究,Siri回答问题的正确率只有68%。(一位苹果发言人最近告诉媒体:“Siri是iPhone 4S最受欢迎的功能之一,顾客喜欢它。”)专家称,这也就是说,苹果继续拥有一大竞争优势:酷。此外,苹果尚未发布iPhone 5,预计它将在今年秋天推出。但是人们的品味变化得很快。实际上,研究公司Strategy Analytics称,最近,三星已经取代了苹果成为销量第一的智能手机生产商。

9.“我们会拴住你一辈子。”

在苹果的“生态系统”──该公司的硬件和软件兼容套装──上储存电影、音乐和书籍等数字内容可能会拴住客户一辈子。分析师称,苹果在iCloud虚拟存储系统上提供5GB免费空间有很充分的理由。“一旦你进入,就会发现它是一站式商店。”Fino的艾森伯格说。苹果的iCloud不同于其他公司的虚拟存储系统的一个关键原因是:它只与其他苹果产品兼容,而谷歌的云服务能和HTC的Thunderbolt、摩托罗拉的Droid或任何使用谷歌操作系统的设备兼容,他说。同时,微软(Microsoft)的SkyDrive和Dropbox等第三方云服务也允许顾客存储微软、安卓或iPhone系统中的文件。

将数字文件从iTunes转存到Kindle Fire等第三方设备上也很难。(尽管这并非不可能:iSyncrand Double Twist等第三方应用软件可以让这种转存更方便。)专家称,iTunes还有其他不便的特征。例如,当你对iTunes音乐库中的曲目评分时,自动DJ将重组歌曲并更频繁地播放你喜欢的音乐。但这个功能无法转移到非苹果设备上。科技文化作家戴蒙•布朗说,他花了数百小时在iTunes上评价歌曲,但如果他将曲目转存到Kindle Fire上,就会丢失这些评级。“用苹果购物就等于是做出了承诺,”他说。“而现在我被拴住了。”

10.“如果我们搞砸了,粉丝也不会在意。”

当然,许多顾客都乐于成为苹果全球社群的一分子:一个Facebook页面“苹果粉丝”有超过935,000个成员。当谈到关于苹果公司的争议或批评时,专家称,该公司的忠实粉丝群通常有盲点。市场营销学教授劳里比较了某些崇拜苹果产品的用户和拥有哈雷-戴维森(Harley-Davidson)摩托车的车迷。“过去,这些群体除了私下接触以外,没有任何彼此交流的方式。”她说。“但是今天,许多品牌都建立了网络社群。”

事实上,许多苹果用户即使在苹果公司让他们失望时,仍会保持忠诚。今年早些时候,由一群苹果用户领导的营利性游说团体Change.org向苹果公司发出了一封请愿书,恳请它改善工厂,尤其是中国工厂的工作条件。然而,该团体的成员称,他们不会丢弃他们的苹果产品,甚至不会卖给收旧手机的。正如SmartMoney.com报道的,Change.org的一位组织者说:“我爱它们,我不想停止使用它们。”苹果公司对自身的缺点持开放态度,这可能也减弱了部分批评声音。苹果发布了关于其工厂的报告,承认62%的供应商没有遵守工作时间限制,并披露有五家工厂雇佣童工。这篇题为《苹果供应商的责任》(Apple Supplier Responsibility)的报告称:“我们要求供应商提供安全的工作环境”并“给予工人尊严和尊重。”

但业内专家称,苹果的营销策略也鼓励了这种部落式拥趸。品牌专家和作家林德斯特伦说,该公司的介于“童话”和“宗教”之间的遣词用语也有助于激起支持该品牌的热情,并让人们在苹果受到批评时觉得难过。她还说:“苹果知道如何激励客户。”一个例子是:苹果公司的网站包含以下关于其第三代平板电脑的描述:“iPad是一个神奇的窗口,它让你与所爱的事物之间全无阻隔。”

Quentin Fottrell

本文译自《财智月刊》

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 华尔街日报
Publish date: 21/08/12

全球经济新一轮繁荣即将来临


全球经济新一轮繁荣即将来临
BWCHINESE中文网 作者:徐斌 2012-08-22

2008年美国次贷危机,以及之后的欧债危机让投资者和消费者悲观气氛始终不散。但近期多项迹象表明,衰退与萧条的阴影正在消退。

2008年美国次贷危机,以及之后的欧债危机,让全球经济持续不振。欧美各国央行纷纷采取零利率政策,以及量化宽松政策以刺激经济,三年来效果一直不彰,投资者和消费者悲观气氛始终不散。但近期多项迹象表明,笼罩在欧美上空的衰退阴云,似乎正在消散。

自查尔斯•道发明金融指数以来,股市指数一直是经济的晴雨表,虽然它偶尔失灵,但到目前为止,它是人类所能发明的最灵敏的经济预测指标。从股市表现看,欧美经济开始走出衰退泥塘。

首先看美国股市。上周五代表30支蓝筹股的道琼斯指数收盘为13275.2点,距离2007年12月的最高点还差4个点。道琼斯指数自6月份以来已经上涨了9.7%,最近六周连续上涨是2011年1月以来的最长连涨。纽约股市三大股指17日均小幅上涨,其中标准普尔指数接近四年新高。



另一方面体现投资者信心的是被用来衡量市场恐慌程度的CBOE VIX指数,当天该指数下跌至14,为五年来最低水平。美国股市牛气冲天,根本看不出任何经济衰退或者萧条的影子,如果结合美国房地产行业全面回暖的现实看,美国经济已经全面走好了。

其次是欧洲股市。上周五,泛欧绩优股指标FTSEurofirst 300指数收盘上涨0.5%,创下2011年7月以来最高。斯托克欧洲600指数上涨0.6%,其中西班牙股市上涨1.9%,意大利股市涨1.3%,英国涨0.3%,德国涨0.6%,法国涨0.2%。

自7月底德拉吉承诺将尽一切努力捍卫欧元后,FTSEurofirst 300指数已经上涨了约9%。本周欧洲股市连续第七周上涨,是2005年以来的最长连涨——这还是危机么?

接下来投资者将等待9月6日的欧洲央行会议,看德拉吉具体会推怎样的干预措施,帮助降低意大利和西班牙的政府借贷成本。十年期西班牙国债收益率周五下降8个基点至6.44%,意大利国债收益率下1个基点至5.79%。尽管媒体舆论上充斥着欧债危机,以及南欧国家经济陷入泥潭的报道,但欧洲股市指数走势提示人们:不要随便看淡欧元区经济。

欧元区经济另一个注意的迹象,是意大利总理蒙蒂19日的表态——意大利已经“接近危机的尾声”。蒙蒂表示,人们对面临的困难越来越清醒,作为欧元区第三大经济体,意大利经济较一年之前已经有所好转。他说:“一年前我们所能想到的还没有如今我们所做的多,我们的确处于危机之中,但我相信现在的情况比一年前好很多。

从某种程度上来说,我们已经能够看到危机的终结离我们越来越近了。”。自从接任贝卢斯科尼起,蒙蒂就开始了改革的路程,包括就业市场改革和养老金改革、削减支出、放松管制。蒙蒂还表示,并没有预料到这些改革会这么快产生刺激经济的效果。

意大利的努力,其实不过重复2004年德国总理施罗德改革的经验,其具体内容,不外乎削减社会福利开支,增加经济自由度等一些改革而已。事实上,只要路子走对,困难就是暂时的,效果有大有小,但最终还是被各方接受——因为除此之外无其他路可走。

其他南欧国家或多或少都得重复意大利改革路径,改革力度有大有小,但方向不会不一致,否则即使欧盟自己不要求这些国家退出,他们自己也会因为财政崩盘而自发退出。换句话说,南欧国家已经开始改革动作,这些已经体现在欧洲股市指数趋势上了。

而对于陷入通缩近二十年的日本经济而言,终于传来一个好消息。上周五(8月17日),日本内阁府发布年中经济展望报告称,政府预计一项考察全国物价趋势的关键指标将在下一财政年度出现16年来的首次上升。

这份最新出炉的经济展望报告显示,预计衡量物价趋势的国内生产总值(GDP)平减指数将在始于4月份的下一财政年度上升0.2%。而上一次日本的GDP平减指数为正还是在1997年,当时营业税由3%上调到5%。这也就意味着该国物价将开始上涨。

报告指出,日本2013财年名义GDP将增长1.9%,实际GDP将增长1.7%,这将是自1997财年以来日本首次出现名义GDP增长超过实际GDP增长。对于想要摆脱长期通货紧缩的日本来说,这无疑是一个积极信号。

尽管现在还不能断言,全球各主要经济体已经完全步入繁荣,但多种现象都显示,衰退与萧条的阴影正在消退。

关于中国经济的走势,笔者的看法现在也非常乐观:

尽管分析师与经济学家对于中国经济年内是否软着陆争论不休,但多种迹象表明中国经济已经进入新一轮加库存周期。

首当其冲的是房价全面上升。国家统计局18日发布7月份70个大中城市住宅销售价格变动情况,70个大中城市中,新建商品住宅环比上涨的城市为50个,下降的城市仅有9个。上涨城市的数量较6月份翻了一倍,同时也超过上半年新房环比价格上涨的城市数量之和。

除了环比上涨的城市数量增加外,新房价格的价格,无论是从环比还是同比来看,都呈现回暖迹象。据北京中原地产统计数据显示,7月70个城市的平均新建商品住宅指数环比上涨0.14%,指数为100.14。这也是从2011年10月以后的第二个平均环比上涨的月份。与此同时,这也是从2011年5月后的最近1年多来,环比涨幅最高的月份,而同比指数则也出现了最近一年来的首次跌幅收窄。

自2011年二季度以来,引导中国经济去库存的导火索和直接因素,就是紧缩货币和楼市调控带来的房地产销售萎靡,这迫使开发商不得不降价去库存,同时降低地产投资。这因此引发相关上下游行业全面清仓大甩卖,与其相关最密切的行业就是钢铁。钢铁行业自去年二季度至今,全行业一直处于亏损状态。

各周期性行业的衰退,构成一年来中国经济持续疲软的全部景象。但今年6月份中国各大城市房价同比开始止跌回升,预示着房地产去库存阶段初步结束。7月份全国各大城市房价全面上涨,预示房地产行业去库存阶段基本结束,房地产商将逐步增大投资。

房地产行业回暖的第一个反应,就是钢铁行业。目前一些钢贸商却看到了春天来临的迹象:在钢价跌破成本线之后,有商家判断钢市底部已现反弹,部分钢贸商开始囤货,准备抄底搏市场。

中钢协8月17日发布最新旬报数据显示,8月上旬,国内重点大中型企业粗钢日产量为162.05万吨,旬环比增长0.82%;同期,全国粗钢日均产量估算值为196.99万吨,旬环比增长1.05%。这和2008年12月份表现如出一辙,也是在全国经济凄风冷雨之时,粗钢产量却温和反弹,胆大的钢贸商开始囤货。这预示着经济开始进入新一轮加库存阶段。

中国经济每一轮加库存阶段,都伴随着国际经济环境的逐步回暖,这一次似乎也不例外。目前美国经济已经走出复苏,进入新一轮信仰扩张周期。突出表现就是7月份房屋建筑指数创2008年8月以来新高。

更重要的是,目前美国30年期国债收益率已经从2.5%的水平反弹回升了,这预示着全球资金风险偏好增强。因为美国国债长期收益率是全球风险资产的定价标杆。

自2008年以来,全球资金的避险需求,将美国长期国债收益率压低到可笑的地步,这种情形持续了近4年之久。现在美国长期国债收益率回升,同时美国垃圾债市场火爆,预示全球经济将逐步回暖。这必然有效改善中国经济的外围环境。

内外环境都发生重大变化,中国经济进入新一轮加库存周期趋势基本可以确定了。

实习编辑:Judy Wang

Monday 20 August 2012

Preparing for the Euro Collapse


http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/investors-preparing-for-collapse-of-the-euro-a-849747.html 
Banks, companies and investors are preparing themselves for a collapse of the euro. Cross-border bank lending is falling, asset managers are shunning Europe and money is flowing into German real estate and bonds. The euro remains stable against the dollar because America has debt problems too. But unlike the euro, the dollar's structure isn't in doubt. 

Recent Stock Actions: Teckwah Industrial


Took up a small stake in Teckwah Industrial based on recommendation from a friend. Teckwah is a relatively low profile company with core business in print and logistics. The business fundamentals are fair and it's currently attractively priced. Teckwah is in the news recently for the print media hub at Paya Lebar. The print business of the company is fairly constant. The non-print or logistics segment is growing and gradually taking up a larger segment of the overall business. Some key points regarding the purchase is detailed below.

Positives
  • Strong balance sheet with low gearing of 2.78% and healthy cash position of $41.7 mil
  • Dividend yield of approximately 4.8%
  • Management is forward looking and investing in infrastructure to enhance its capabilities (eg. print media hub and investments in Iskandar Malaysia)
Negatives 
  • Print media business is price sensitive with increasing operating costs eroding the profits
  • Would want to see greater clarity on how management intends to grow the non-print business

短線看淡港股 看好中資油股


短線看淡港股 看好中資油股
有留意本專欄,或本人主持財經節目的朋友,應知道本人自上周中起,對港股久未往上突破,而對後市開始有戒心。颱風啟德上周四(8月16日)突然襲港,港股當日首度跌穿20,000點收市,本人視之為利淡港股訊號。雖然上周五港股恒指升153點,收20,116點,站於20,000點之上報收,再加上周五歐美均升市報收,亦無改本人略看淡後市睇法。

因趟若港股市底壯旺,何以近月來,多隻上市新股仍表現疲弱?不少本為市場注視的新股,往往首日掛牌大幅跌破招股價收場?再者,不少大型中資企業,不是宣報延期,便是計劃在明年上半年才來港上市,此時長線看好港股,屬言之尚早。至於最近環球股市,以至港股表現偏好的原因,本人認為跟近年處於牛市階段的債券市場,過去數周普遍出現調整有關。

一直以來,屬保守投資類別的債券,多跟較高風險的股票作反向走勢。在債市出現持續回調的情況下,或許有資金由債市流向股市,博取較高回報。但現時要思考的重點,如此情況會否持續?

此外,大家若有留意國際新聞,現時美國和伊朗關係漸趨緊張,外電連日報道以色列居民,正加緊購買大量急需品、糧食、汽油、以及防毒面罩,以防戰事爆發。上周本人已談過,但凡美國開戰前後,環球金融市場的表現,在此不再多談。即使本人對於美伊會否開戰,也半信半疑,但深信這已足夠給市場先生,利用此課題作為造好造淡藉口,於金融市舞高弄低圖利。本人預期,短期環球金融市場的話題,將圍繞歐洲債務危機、美伊局勢、往後再配以內地18大會議、美國總統選舉等。屆時市場將有更多即時資訊,將令大家,包括股評家和分析師吃不消。

至於本周港股策略,在本人略看淡的主觀願望,預期恒指將先往下試19,700點水平,這亦是20天和100天平均線的所在水平。
至於往後再下試低位,或是完成後抽再重上20,000點,則視乎當時市況而定,屆時本人自會跟大家剖析。本人雖然看淡大市,但仍看好一眾中資油股。中海油(0883)短線建議止蝕14.80元,待股價回落至15.2元吸納,中線目標16元。中石化(0386)則靠近7.4元買入,止蝕7.28元,中線目標7.9元。

回看上周「打爆莊」海通證券(6837),本人當初選取此股,是預期內地股市快見底回升,有利券商股。但推介後首日,一眾券商因內地討論區出現一些利淡謠言,整個板塊出現集體下跌,海通亦即跌破止蝕位。是次失手,真是「出師未捷身先死,長使英雄淚滿襟」。回說「打爆莊」的由來,本為DBC數碼大錢台「股市熱鬧」節目,由本人主持的一個環節,上周五已是本人該節目的最後一集。今日起至9月10日,將改於中午12點至1點,在DBC一台由江小魚和施仁醒主持。

在此要多謝Q爺.黎則奮和江小魚一直以來的支持。對於該節目最初「叫好不叫座」,各主持和幕後同時,仍默默付出時間與心思,力求做好該節目。到近期廣為人知,贏盡口碑之際,卻因電台面臨停播,節目亦快將隨之結束,真的是「夕陽無限好,只是近黃昏」。

最後非常多謝聽眾林先生,在節目首播初期,經常致電支持我們。到了上周五他雖身在澳門,也透過電話憑詩寄意,鼓勵及祝福我們,實令小魚兄和我感動,亦深感股市不再熱鬧,人間依然有情。 梁永祥

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: 新報
Publish date: 20/08/12

PEG


在探讨PEG这个指标之前,必须要把前面提到的ROE、PB、PE、PS理清一下。
  ROE,是净资产收益率,这个指标代表了企业自有资金的投资收益能力。

  很多投资者,没有搞清楚这个指标的本质含义,简单的将其等同于成长能力。这时就需要引入一个指标,净资产增长率。净资产增长率是企业(期末净资产-期初净资产)与期初净资产之间的比值。净资产增长率,反映了企业的发展能力是否强劲。

  净资产收益率与净资产增长率,这两个指标联合起来,就体现出企业成长的强劲程度。

  很多投资者,都忽视了净资产增长率的因素,片面的将净资产收益率等同与长期成长能力,造成误判。

  净资产收益率、净资产增长率,都是不体现股权交易价格的企业内在价值评估量化指标。

  PB、PE、PS、PEG,都是包括了股权交易价格的量化评估指标。

  PEG,是市盈率与净利润增长率之间的一个比值。

  彼得林奇搞出来这个指标,影响了相当多的投资者,特别是成长股投资者。

  驱动企业成长的量化指标,依然是净资产收益率、净资产增长率。

  这两者之间的模糊认识,常常导致混乱的思维体系。

  在我看来,PEG这个指标很难评估,市盈率与净利润增长率之间的比值关系存在太多的不确定性。

  更重要的是评估企业长期增长的驱动力,内在价值飙升的速度、时间周期、稳定性,单纯通过几个量化指标想比较准确的做到这一点非常的困难。

  投资者,乐观化ROE的威力,就可能忽略了主营业务净资产增长率的作用,最后,沦入增长陷阱。

  股价,在大众偏见中,维系在高PB估值体系下,一旦,确认了未来的低成长预期,就会出现调整。

  当投资者用PEG指标进行投资评估时,就必然带有个人的主观思维,必定出现偏见。

  当投资者用ROE指标进行成长能力评估时,不客观评估驱动成长的净资产增长率,也必定出现偏见。

  投资,就是个主观偏执狂的知行合一游戏。

  我是、你是、他是,都是偏见的载体。

  不同的是同上帝的距离。

根据PE、PS指标量化投资,其基础必须是存在业务稳定性


根据PE、PS指标量化投资,其基础必须是存在业务稳定性。

  这两个指标,体现不出来企业实际资产质量,是建立在企业净资产基础上的量化数据。

  一旦,企业资产形成的商业竞争优势被突破,将变成镜中花、水中月。


  有很多企业,其净资产数量有限,依靠无形资产优势,形成商业竞争壁垒,这类企业比较特殊。

  例如:传媒、广告、公关、科技信息、专利研发......

  苹果,就是个典型例子,作为世界第一市值公司,苹果的科技与商业壁垒一旦被突破,产品出现大规模滞销,业绩大幅下滑,戴维斯他老人家就会疯狂肆虐。



  为什么,亚马逊这个企业很可怕?

  因为,亚马逊的业绩成长,是建立在非常坚实的能够产生现金流规模扩张的固定资产基础上。

  物流中心,这种资产是重资产,最惨的情况下,这些物流中心还能具备实际价值。

  科技、品牌资产都被突破,还能残存固定资产,给股东留了一块裤衩。

  这块裤衩,也恰恰是亚马逊庞大业务的实际支撑基础。通过科技创新,以最高效率运用固定资产,形成无形资产增值,是亚马逊最成功的地方。

  给你亚马逊市值的资金,你必须要攻破其品牌、科技壁垒,还要攻克其固定资产重置壁垒,这就变得非常困难。



  苏宁,最重要的不是PE指标,而是,PB、PS指标。

  净利润,不是最值得关注的。因为,需要进行极为庞大的固定资产建设投资,给股东们的私处留块裤衩。没有这款裤衩,一旦,品牌、商业模式被对手攻克,就彻底归零了,戴维斯他老人家就会疯狂肆虐。有这款裤衩,最坏还可以转型为DHL,做一个纯粹的物流企业,还有机会东山再起,没有,可真就是命悬一线,生死较量。



  饥饿游戏,对于那些缺乏PB指标支撑,仅仅具备PS指标支撑的电子商务企业来说,裤衩已飞。

  净资产,在有效亏损消耗下,江河日下,非常危险。

  

  谁穿没穿裤衩,要不了太久,就会知道。

Thursday 16 August 2012

Markets – Likely To Take A Breather


13 AUGUST 2012
Markets – Likely To Take A Breather
By Ernest Lim

For the past two weeks, Asian markets have surged with Hang Seng and Nikkei posting a 4.5 percent and 3.8 percent gain respectively. Optimism on potential central bank action from US and Europe and the possibility of more easing from China (especially with the much weaker than expected trade data, industrial production, retail sales released last week) kept the rally alive.

Table 1: STI’s past 2 week price performance vis-à-vis other indices
Source: Bloomberg, Ernest’s compilations

Looking forward to this week, Tuesday would be a day of focus. On Tuesday, important economic data such as China’s foreign direct investment, French and German Prelim GDP, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, Europe Flash GDP, Europe industrial production and US core retail sales data would be on tap. Investors would also watch out for the US CPI, manufacturing, housing and consumer sentiment data scheduled for release between Wednesday to Friday (please refer to “Summary of Economic Calendar for the Week ahead (SIN time)” below for some of the important economic events to take note).

For the week, STI retreated from an intraday high of 3,086 and found support at the previously mentioned resistance turned support level 2 of around 3,044. It closed 3 points higher, or 0.1 percent to 3,054. As the results season comes to an end in the next couple of weeks, markets are likely to take a breather. In addition, it is noteworthy that European stocks have rallied for 10 consecutive weeks, or 15 percent since 4 June. US stocks have rallied for five consecutive weeks. Furthermore, the earliest where we can get a sniff of whether we may get QE III is at the Jackson Hole Symposium which stretches from 31 Aug to 2 Sep. Thus, between now to 31 Aug, odds are higher that markets may take a breather. As markets take a breather, there may be selected rotation to the second liners. Notwithstanding the lack of catalysts from now to 31 Aug, it is unlikely that markets may face a significant sell off of more than 10 percent before the Jackson Hole Symposium on 31 Aug.

As mentioned 3 weeks ago in my weekly newsflash 23 Jul to 27 Jul, readers can consider to adopt a nimble trading strategy (at least for a portion of your portfolio) to buy on weakness and sell on strength. OSIM International (which I have emailed to my clients on 26 Jul early afternoon before its results) is a case in point where it weakens from $1.23 on 20 Jul to $1.185 on 26 Jul. Thereafter it gaps up on 27 Jul after its result release on 26 Jul evening. OSIM went to an intraday high of $1.34 on 7 and 8 Aug before it closed at $1.33 on 10 Aug.

Ezion Holdings is another company which I mentioned in my previous week weekly newsflash 6 Aug to 10 Aug where such trading strategy may be employed. It was around $0.975 on 3 Aug and went to an intraday low of $0.960 on 7 Aug, the eve of its results announcement. It closed at $1.040 on 10 Aug, more than a five year high. Nevertheless, Ezion is a highly volatile stock which may not be suitable to some readers. Readers who are interested to know more about Ezion can email me at crclk@yahoo.com.sg for the analyst reports.

All the best for your investment and trading!

Please note that the above is my personal opinion and may not cater to your specific risk profile etc. The question of when to buy / sell and what to buy / sell differs greatly from individual to individual. Furthermore, it is extremely important to bear in mind that the market outlook is never static. It can change suddenly if there are sudden big events unfolding from the market – some events can happen as quickly as a few hours.

STI supports and resistances are:

Current: 3,054

Support 1: 3,044

Support 2: 3,027 – 3,033

Support 3: 3,016

Support 4: 2,996-2,997

Support 5: 2,962 – 2,966

Resistance 1: 3,063

Resistance 2: 3,078 – 3,086

Resistance 3: 3,105

Resistance 4: 3,120

Resistance 5: 3,137

*Supports and resistances are not static levels. They may be subject to change daily.

*Summary of Economic Calendar for the Week ahead (SIN time)

13 Aug, Mon: (JPY) Prelim GDP;

14 Aug, Tues: (JPY) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes; (CNY) **Foreign Direct Investment; (EUR) French & German Prelim GDP / French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls / German ZEW Economic Sentiment / Europe Flash GDP / Europe Industrial Production; (GBP) CPI; (USD) Core Retail Sales / PPI / Business Inventories;

15 Aug, Wed: (GBP) MPC Meeting Minutes / Unemployment Rate; (USD) Core CPI / Crude Oil Inventories / Empire State Manufacturing Index / Industrial Production / NAHB Housing Market Index;

16 Aug, Thurs: (EUR) Core CPI; (GBP) Retail Sales; (USD) Unemployment Claims / Building Permits / Housing Starts / Philly Fed Manufacturing Index;

17 Aug, Fri: (EUR) Trade Balance; (USD) Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment / CB Leading Index;

*All economic data especially China data (if any) are subject to changes without notice. The above list is not exhaustive. I have merely listed the economic data which I feel has more impact to the market.

**China Foreign Direct Investment is tentatively scheduled on 14 Aug.

***The above is part of the weekly newsflash which I send out to my clients weekly on a weekend.

Information sources: Various sources such as Bloomberg, Dow Jones, forex calendar, Reuters, SGX, Yahoo Finance, and Business Times etc.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: http://www.sharesinv.com
Publish date: 13/08/12

Wednesday 15 August 2012

Wall Street Guru Jim Rogers: Investment Tips by Jim Rogers


Shares Investment: Pertaining China’s 2Q12 GDP figure of 7.6 percent, concerns have been raised and do you think that China is really heading for a hard landing?

Jim Rogers: Firstly, I would suggest not paying that much attention to the GDP figures because it is a lagging indicator and it does not accurately reflect the current conditions of the market. On the part of the slowdown in China, should we be surprised by it? I mean, they’ve been trying to slow down for the past three years and they have. As you put it, some parts of the Chinese economy will be expected to experience a hard landing, and some parts of the Chinese economy will be expected to do extremely well going forward. I expect the property sector will experience the hard landing and sectors like agriculture, infrastructure, and water treatment will be having a great potential and future.

SI: The Shanghai Composite Index sank to close at its three-year low on 20 Jul-12 even after the Chinese central bank surprised the market by cutting its benchmark interest rates twice in a month. What is your view on this?

Jim: I’m not buying Chinese shares right now if that’s what you mean. I own Chinese shares. Whenever the Chinese market collapses, I’ll buy more for my children. I don’t sell my Chinese shares; I just buy more whenever they collapse, but not now.

SI: Since mid-2011, gold price has been falling as China and India’s growth started to slow. Do you think that the price of gold will continue its downward trend and do you see this as a buying opportunity?

Jim: I’m not good at market timing so I can’t be absolutely certain. However, I do own gold and silver. I do not know what’s going to happen but gold has been going up 11 years in a row. I have not heard that for any asset without a down year. Gold is obviously correcting right now, maybe 15 percent to 20 percent from its all-time high, which is not very much for a normal correction in any markets (normal 30 percent to 40 percent). It will not surprise me if gold didn’t continue to correct. Moreover, gold has only been down 30 percent once in the past 12 years or so, which is extremely unusual. What’s going on with gold right now is abnormal, what is normal would be for gold to actually go down 30 percent to 40 percent. That will then be the time to buy, “if” and when that happens, I hope I buy more.

SI: In that case, do you have any target price in mind for gold?

Jim: No. I have no idea what’s going to happen. I know in the next ten years it will be much higher. I mean, depending on what happens in the world, like if Spain suddenly decides to declare bankruptcy and everything collapses, I’ll find something to buy as things go down.

SI: Last year you mentioned in a video that in the future that in the future farmers will be driving lamborghinis and stock brokers will be driving taxis, considering that and the surge in corn’s price and volatility in the commodities market right now, what’s your take on commodities?

Jim: My statement about farmers driving Lamborghinis and stock brokers driving taxis stand. I’m very optimistic about agricultural still. Agricultural prices will have to go up a lot. The inventories of food are near historic lows and we are running out of farmers. Therefore any shocks or bad news to agriculture will have enormous effect. Unless the prices of agricultural products go up higher to attract more labour, capital and management, we are going to have an unmitigated situation that the world has never seen.

SI: Shifting the focus back to the general economy, do you foresee a possible re-enactment of stimulus measures like operation twist if the Eurozone crisis does not improve?

Jim: Yes I do, unfortunately this is because all governments want to be re-elected, therefore they’d do everything they can to do so. All they know is to stimulate, whether it’s by printing money or spending other people’s money. It’s the wrong thing to do, but they don’t know any better. So you’re going to see a lot more government actions, because they’d want to be re-elected.

SI: Considering how long this issue has been dragging, what is your take on the constant pumping in of money to salvage the European nations?

Jim: I think it’s a wrong move altogether. I mean as you can see, so far printing money hasn’t work, and it’s not going to work this time. The world has staggering debt problems, so all these money printing is just going to make things even worse. Things are going to get really bad in 2013 and 2014. So they should be really careful about printing money.

SI: A few months back you mentioned about shorting emerging markets as a hedge, what are the emerging markets you are looking at that you think has a long potential for?

Jim: Well, I’m very optimistic about Myanmar, although there is no stock market there but I do own Yoma Strategic Holdings (Yoma). There are not a lot of stocks that you can own which do businesses in Myanmar, but Yoma does. Other countries that I’m looking at for the most part are mostly countries with no stock market yet but are going right. Like North Korea, I’m very optimistic about North Korea, but there’s not really a way to invest in North Korea yet.

SI: Lastly, what would your advice be to anyone who wants to invest right now?

Jim: If they don’t know what they’re doing, I’d advise them not to. If they do, opportunities can be found as there are many things which are knocked down right now, making such opportunities cheap. Essentially I think the most important of them all is to invest in what you know about. Don’t listen to someone you heard on the radio or internet, and let it sway your decision, they could be wrong. If you’ve done your homework, if you know what you know, don’t listen to others.