Market Sense

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The information contained in this publication / this website is provided to you for general information only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise. You may wish to obtain advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest. Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this blog/website are personal views and shall disclaim any liability for damages resulting from errors and omissions contained.

CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: August 2014
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this are personal views. No liability is accepted for any direct/indirect or any other damages of any kind arising from or in connection with your reliance on the information provided herein.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Sunday 17 August 2014

Daily Market Summary 15th Aug 2014

Dyna-Mac Q2 net profit -19.9% to $6m. SGX
Genting SP 1) Q2 net profit -27% to $102.3m. 2) working with South Korea regulators to get approval for Jeju project. SGX
Golden Agri Q2 net profit -40% to US$27.3m, China oilseeds business challenging. SGX
Halcyon Q2 net profit -76.7% to US$622k. SGX
Healthway Q2 net profit -97.7% to $520k. SGX
Hong Fok Q2 net profit -30% to $8.8m. SGX
IHC Q2 net profit -92.3% to $2.2m. SGX
ISDN Q2 net profit +44.5% to $2.7m. SGX
Kingsmen Creative Q2 net profit -1.4% to $5.3m. SGX
KS Energy Q2 net profit spike up to $46.7m, mainly from disposal of plant and equipment. SGX
Midas Q2 net profit -44.2% to rmb8.3m. SGX
Mirach Q2 net loss is US$1.7m vs net profit of US$54k a year ago. SGX
QT Vascular revenue up but net losses widen. SGX
Ramba Q2 net loss -16.8% to $2.9m. SGX
See Hup Seng Q2 net profit +25% to $3.5m. SGX
Sinarmas Land Q2 net profit -52.1% to $50m. SGX
Sunvic Q2 net loss is rmb1.5m vs net profit of rmb68.6m a year ago. SGX
Swissco secures contracts to provide four mobile offshore drilling units. SGX
Tat Hong Q1 net profit -28% to $6m. SGX
ThaiBev Q2 net profit +12% to thb5.5b. SGX
The straits trading company Q2 net loss is $5.8m vs net profit of $69.7m a year ago. SGX
TT Int Q1 net loss +250.4% to $12.8m. SGX
United Engineers Q2 net profit +81%, which it attributed in large part to its being able to recognise revenue from several properties. SGX
- See more at: http://www.invstock.com/stock-investment-general-topics/08/15/daily-market-summary-15th-aug-2014-2/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=daily-market-summary-15th-aug-2014-2#sthash.W4JqsnTJ.dpuf

Wednesday 6 August 2014

第8频道《早安你好》骆伟嵩 8月4日 现场采访:新加坡股市还有希望上吗?

1) 本地股市上周五闭市3344点,下滑29点或0.88%。请回顾/总结上周本地股市整体表现。


这周的表现因为星期四美国大掉而受了影响。虽然整个星期没什么涨,但是整个7月,海指已经涨了接近100点。
这是一个相当强的表现。
几个月前,大家还记得我提过第三季我们预测海指就会突破3300点,在33003450点徘徊。
这个月真的看到了。
虽然这几天下滑,我们还是保持这个观点。STI还是很抗跌的。虽然星期五大掉30点,但是大家不要担心。这一次跌我们觉得可能不深。
最多到3300点就是很大的支持了。
原因是资金还在新兴市场,在新加坡。
很多朋友可能这个月判断大调整,但是可能要失望了
大家要趁着几天的下滑进场,投资一下业绩报告不错的股票。


2)
大华银行和星展集团已于上周公布业绩报告。华侨银行将于明天发布业绩。您怎么看本地银行业接下来的表现?房价下跌,贷款业务自然受影响,这会冲击到银行业的走势?
我们曾经说过银行股跟STI的走势是一样的。
sti上银行股上。sti掉,银行股掉。
为什么银行股不跌?因为sti一直涨。
我觉得短期还是可能还会上涨,因为sti还有机会涨一些。
但长期投资就不要,3450就要掉了。
几时买最好?当sti急跌的时候买最好!

两支股票都表现都比预期的期望好一点。但是星期五不同的遭遇。相比这两支股票,如果利率上升,DBS的风险管理会比UOB还要好。



3) 新交所第四季净利下跌12%7740万元。新交所预期其证券业务在接下来一年将从过去艰难的一个年中复苏,因为股市料将从低波动性恢复至一般的波动性水平。您预料SGX下来会收复失地吗?
-证券业务的营收下跌15%

SGX的业务来自多少人买卖股票,越多人买卖股票,利润越大。
去年下半年STI的表现都很不理想因为股市都不怎么好。
特别是10月小股大掉也造成很多朋友避开股票。这也反映在整年的业绩里。
但是我们觉得SGX现在往上走的可能相当大。
今年自从2STI一直往上冲。我觉得这驶到投资家对股票更有兴趣了。相信今年SGX业绩会比去年好。

4)
新加坡股市将在今后两年内推行多项改革。这估计将影响超过200家股价目前低于$0.20的主板挂牌公司。新规定实行后,这些公司怎么办?股市改革如何影响股民?
-Mar 2015:主板挂牌公司的股价不得低于$0.20(以改善主板股票的素质)
-Jan 2015:所有股票的每张交易单位从1000股减为100

我觉得这个决策对股民是好的。大家可以看到这样的决策纯粹是希望股民少投资在那些非常小的股票。自从去年十月发生恐慌,SGX就希望防止这件事情再发生。
从两个方面:一是不完太小的股票,而是减低大家的门槛。1LOT=100股,这样能让大家投资少一点,开始留意比较高的价格股。


5) 美国股市上周五继周四大跌后继续下滑,道指闭市16493点,滑落70点。
在近期,华尔街股市创出了过去两年来最为糟糕的单周表现,这足以使得市场投资者开始担心股市是否会出现过度调整?您认为呢?
-标普500指数累计下滑2.7%,创自20126月以来的最大单周跌幅
-道指连续第四个交易日走低,上周累计下挫2.8%

不用担心。我觉得美国股市和经济都相当的健康。
道指的支持在16300点。现在道指在16500点左右。跌多200点,大家就可以开始留意了。


6) 海指的阻力点和支持水平在?
就在3300-3450。我觉的海指要跌破3300点的支持不容易。怎么跌,可能怎么反弹回来。


7) 请预计今早本地股市开盘后的走势。

我觉得因为美国星期五下跌的关系,可能会开低,但是我觉得很有可能会回来,开低走高的现象。整体的新加坡股市还是相当的健康的。这种信心会驶到股市还往上升。

Tuesday 5 August 2014

Crossing swords with Asia's investment gurus Hu Li Yang, Dar Wong and Louis Wong

Summary of different views crossing swords!


It seems coincidental that Hu Li Yang and Dar Wong has almost similar views in that the stock market has reached its peak and a bubble might burst soon. But Louis Wong and me are bullish and think that this bull run might still continue for the next couple of years!

Hu Li Yang:
1) This bullish run might continue for the next few months before the collapse comes in December.
2) Next Febuary and March we might see the interest rate rise.
3) 3 months before, there will be a peak in the stock market
4) The 11 years of money game is going to be over once "INTEREST RATE rises"!
5) Do not invest much in stocks anymore, we are already eating our last dessert
6) Needs to learn the techniques for buying stocks to prevent a loss.

Dar Wong:
1) This is a bubble forming
2) Fed chairwoman Janet is sustaining this bubble by using her words only
3) Be careful in investment
4) Looking to short the market
5) Invest in commodities market
6) Short term 16300 is a support for DOW. Daniel Loh agreed with Dar Wong predictions.

Louis Wong:
1) Think that timing of bubble might be too early. Think Hu Li Yang "dessert' might be too delicious to ignore
2) Do not be too extreme in predicting a bubble
3) Invest in high tech stocks like Alibaba, Facebook or QQ type of stocks
4) Agree with Daniel Loh that this Federal Reserve is different and transparent
5) Buy China and Hong Kong stocks
6) Hang Seng going to break 25000 soon

Daniel Loh:
1) Do not agree with Dar Wong and Hu Li Yang views about a collapse coming soon
2) Major reason is FED is doing a good job. After Ben Bernanke took over, everything is transparent. Tell us in advance their plans like QE tapering and interest rate rise. With the advanced warning , no possible collapse will come soon.
3) A little rise in inflation or interest rate is in fact good for the economy. Think the bull run might last another 2 years.
4) Last quarter might have correction but bear market wont come yet. Market will recover after interest rate rises. This is totally different from Hu Li Yangs views that bubble will burst when interest rate starts to rise.
5) Take the opportunity to buy singapore stocks if 3300 is reached! Dar Wong agrees.
6) Agrees with Dar Wong that Dow should have a good support at 16300.
7) Invest in Oil and Gas and Reits, 2nd half of the year oil and gas should recover


Although unarranged, it seems like this showdown is 2 on 2! 2 bullish about the market, another 2 totally bearish.

No right and wrong. Each got their views. But I am sure the crowd is having a great time listening to the arguments from all the gurus.

Monday 4 August 2014

Outcome of Securities Market Structure and Practices Review

 BY 

A couple of days ago, they released the results of the consultation:
If you like to read the considerations and rationale of the final outcome, you can refer to the feedback paper here:
These are the changes that will be implemented:

Minimum Trading Price

A minimum trading price of $0.20 will be imposed for mainboard companies (expected implementation date March 2015).
Firms will have a 12-month transition time to meet this requirement, mainly via share consolidation.
On an ongoing basis, an issuer’s volume weighted average price over a 6-month period prior to a review date must not fall below the threshold of S$0.20. Those who fail the criteria will be given a 36-month cure period to remedy the situation.

Minimum Trading Lot Size

The minimum trading lot size will be reduced from the current 1000 shares to 100 shares from Jan 2015 onwards. This will help mitigate the possibility of getting odd lots from the consolidation exercises that will be expected from some mainboard companies to meet the minimum $0.20 requirement.

Collateral Requirement for Securities Trading

Investors will be required to put up a collateral of 5% of their net open positions by the end of the day. This will apply to both local as well as overseas stocks. CPF and SRS trades will be exempted.
The suggestion to reduce settlement time by one day will be dealt with in another consultation paper.
Expected implementation date is in mid 2016.

Short Position Reporting Requirements

Short sellers will be required to notify MAS of their net short positions – excluding derivatives – based on the lower of 0.05% or S$1,000,000 of issued shares of a listed entity. The aggregated short positions will be published on a weekly basis.
Expected implementation date is in mid 2016.

Transparency of Trading Restrictions Imposed by Securities Intermediaries

The Securities Association of Singapore (SAS) will develop industry guidelines for its members to address the concerns of information asymmetry due to differing practices of trading restriction announcements.
Expected implementation is date in end of 2014.

Reinforcing the SGX Listings and Enforcement Framework

An independent Listings Advisory Committee will be set up to consider listing policy issues and listing applications that meet certain referral criteria.
A Listings Disciplinary Committee and Listings Appeals Committee will be set up to improve transparency and ensure fair and independent
administration of sanctions, as well as provide an avenue of appeal against certain regulatory decisions by SGX.
The range of regulatory sanctions for listing rule breaches will be expanded to include powers to impose fines on issuers, restrict the activities that issuers may undertake, as well as to make offers of composition for minor, and administrative or technical breaches.