Well, let's look at a few reasons:
1) The stocks and indices most familiar to traders have provided the worst returns.
2) The time frame most comfortable for short-term traders (daytrading) has provided the worst returns.
3) The growth of stock index and ETFs has created automated arbitrage strategies that have greatly diminished market trending.
4) Markets tend to confound human nature by refusing to do in the next time period what they have done in the previous one.
5) Because of the above, following normal human sentiment makes people lose money in the markets, almost as if the game is rigged.
6) Because markets change their trending and volatility over time, we'll always tend to be most confident just as things are turning--and overconfidence is deadly.
7) There's no minor league for trading: once you place your order, you're up against the pros, who have a lot of tools at their disposal.
I've learned many things from traders, but this perhaps is most important: The most successful traders and trading organizations I've had the pleasure of getting to know are constantly adapting to changing market conditions. They don't rely on a single trading model; they are always modeling. They do not scalp the midday hours the same as they approach the early morning. They know the difference between a market with active institutional participation and one dominated by locals--and trade accordingly.
People are comfortable with the known, and that keeps them static. It is so easy to lose money in the markets, because markets are dynamic.
Tuesday, 15 November 2011
2012全球房地產投資下降
Created 11/14/2011 - 14:15
《The Great Wall of Money》報告指出，2012年投向環球房地產市場的投資金額預期為3160億美元，較2010年底估算的投資金額下跌4%。這是自2009年年底以來，環球房地產市場的投資金額首次沒有出現預期的增長。原因是基金較難籌集新資金，轉而調動現有資金以作投資用途。
歐洲沒機會
美洲小漲
《The Great Wall of Money》報告追蹤環球新資金直接購買房地產的情況，並介紹目前市場的新機遇。各地區中，新籌集資金上升的只有美洲，較上一次統計時增加3%至1140億美元；反觀亞太區的新籌得資金則較上次統計時跌12%至910億美元，歐洲亦跌3%至1110億美元。
撰寫報告的Nigel Almond說，由於環球經濟前景再添陰霾，更多基金利用現有資金作投資，各地市場新籌集的資金也減少。亞太區物業價格較理想，吸引更多基金，令區內在2010年至2011年上半年間的物業交易量大增。
歐洲、中東及非洲地區方面，過去兩年間新籌集的資金量大致穩定，但物業成交數字不多，反映專注投資於歐洲的基金較難在區內找到合適的投資機會。
美洲的新籌集資金量繼續上升，但物業交易只有輕微增長。
商舖投資是全球風
大部份投資者均選擇多於一個類型的物業為投資目標，這類投資佔整體房地產投資金額達到80%；專注單一物業類型的基金最青睞的物業類型是商舖，投資於商舖的基金佔總數35%，其次是工業類物業。
報告發現，投資於單一國家的基金首次占各類基金的大多數為52%，而2009年這類基金佔整體的比率只是30%。這項轉變反映了在環球經濟風險增加時，投資者傾向投資於他們熟悉的場，投資於單一國家的基金中，最多基金選擇美國為投資地區，佔總數的51%，其次是英國，佔10%。
新基金將會減少
報告分析顯示，未來亞太、歐洲及美洲三大地區房地產投資金額中，非本土資金的比重都會增加，表示明年有機會出現更多跨地區的物業投資買賣。
亞太區的非本土資金在上述的18個月內佔比為11%，但明年預期佔比將增至66%，約佔整體房地產投資金額的三分之二。然而在近期環球波動的市況下，明年亞太資金跨地區投資活動不會太活躍。
DTZ戴德梁行全球研究部主管Hans Vrensen表示，雖然房地產比其它資產有更高的投資價值，但環球市場的不明朗，將在未來一段日子影響新資金的籌集。
如果環球經濟持續沒有起色，戴德梁行預期隨著企業推遲上市計劃，第三方基金亦較難吸引新的投資時，投向全球房地產市場的資金就會減少。
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:14/11/11
《The Great Wall of Money》報告指出，2012年投向環球房地產市場的投資金額預期為3160億美元，較2010年底估算的投資金額下跌4%。這是自2009年年底以來，環球房地產市場的投資金額首次沒有出現預期的增長。原因是基金較難籌集新資金，轉而調動現有資金以作投資用途。
歐洲沒機會
美洲小漲
《The Great Wall of Money》報告追蹤環球新資金直接購買房地產的情況，並介紹目前市場的新機遇。各地區中，新籌集資金上升的只有美洲，較上一次統計時增加3%至1140億美元；反觀亞太區的新籌得資金則較上次統計時跌12%至910億美元，歐洲亦跌3%至1110億美元。
撰寫報告的Nigel Almond說，由於環球經濟前景再添陰霾，更多基金利用現有資金作投資，各地市場新籌集的資金也減少。亞太區物業價格較理想，吸引更多基金，令區內在2010年至2011年上半年間的物業交易量大增。
歐洲、中東及非洲地區方面，過去兩年間新籌集的資金量大致穩定，但物業成交數字不多，反映專注投資於歐洲的基金較難在區內找到合適的投資機會。
美洲的新籌集資金量繼續上升，但物業交易只有輕微增長。
商舖投資是全球風
大部份投資者均選擇多於一個類型的物業為投資目標，這類投資佔整體房地產投資金額達到80%；專注單一物業類型的基金最青睞的物業類型是商舖，投資於商舖的基金佔總數35%，其次是工業類物業。
報告發現，投資於單一國家的基金首次占各類基金的大多數為52%，而2009年這類基金佔整體的比率只是30%。這項轉變反映了在環球經濟風險增加時，投資者傾向投資於他們熟悉的場，投資於單一國家的基金中，最多基金選擇美國為投資地區，佔總數的51%，其次是英國，佔10%。
新基金將會減少
報告分析顯示，未來亞太、歐洲及美洲三大地區房地產投資金額中，非本土資金的比重都會增加，表示明年有機會出現更多跨地區的物業投資買賣。
亞太區的非本土資金在上述的18個月內佔比為11%，但明年預期佔比將增至66%，約佔整體房地產投資金額的三分之二。然而在近期環球波動的市況下，明年亞太資金跨地區投資活動不會太活躍。
DTZ戴德梁行全球研究部主管Hans Vrensen表示，雖然房地產比其它資產有更高的投資價值，但環球市場的不明朗，將在未來一段日子影響新資金的籌集。
如果環球經濟持續沒有起色，戴德梁行預期隨著企業推遲上市計劃，第三方基金亦較難吸引新的投資時，投向全球房地產市場的資金就會減少。
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date:14/11/11
Smart money nibbles at Asian equities
Emerging market funds prove attractive as share prices plummet
By Goh Eng Yeow
14 November 2011
It would take an investor with a strong stomach to put up with the roller-coaster which hit global stock markets last week.
But while worries about Greece and Italy were occupying the newspaper headlines, the smart money was quietly nibbling at Asian equities as their share prices plummeted along with those in the rest of the world.
Data from Citi Investment Research shows that funds investing in emerging markets equities attracted about US$2.1billion (S$2.7 billion) in fresh money last week.
Although this was lower than the US$3.5 billion received in the previous week, the inflow suggested that investors were picking up stocks again, as they overcame the jitters that had kept them sidelined since early August.
The Citi data also showed that, within Asia, funds investing in Hong Kong and China equities stayed as the key winners for a second week, receiving the bulk of the new money, followed by Taiwan.
This is not surprising, considering that China was one of the few bright spots for investors, with a drop in inflation suggesting that the world’s No. 2 economy might have successfully engineered a soft landing.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.41 per cent, propelled by a strong showing on Friday.
Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index, however, fell 2.03 per cent, as investors dumped blue-chips such as Noble Group, Wilmar International and Genting Singapore, following their third-quarter results.
Still, the steady trickle of investors back into the market has revived hopes that the much-awaited traditional Santa rally is around the corner.
But in order to get the bulls galloping again, conditions in Europe will have to stabilise.
Last week, global stock markets suffered a seizure as Italian borrowing costs headed past 7 per cent into bailout territory, before enjoying a spectacular rebound on Friday, as yields fell back to 6.5 per cent.
To some investors, the rout suffered by Italian bonds resembled an old-fashioned bank run where panicky depositors rush to take out their money for fear that the bank will fail.
But in this case, the run was on something far bigger - the world’s seventh largest economy to be precise, and that could well have horrendous consequences beyond jittery depositors.
True, Italy may be one of the world’s most heavily indebted countries, owing about €2 trillion (S$3.5 trillion). But that does not mean it is in imminent danger of going bankrupt.
In fact, much of its debt is owned by its citizens, who have an estimated total wealth of €10 trillion and are unlikely to want their country to go into default.
For a bank run to subside, the besieged lender turns to a lender of last resort - usually the country’s central bank - to supply ample cash to meet depositors’ demands and restore faith that their money is in safe hands.
For Italy, the lender of last resort is the European Central Bank and it was the massive purchase of Italian bonds by the ECB that helped to push Italian bond yields down and stabilise the market.
But there is one problem. Market strategists noted that the ECB’s current ad hoc approach makes any relief temporary.
‘The ECB should be committing to unlimited purchases of Italian bonds in order to ward off speculators. Unfortunately, it remains reluctant to do this,’ said Mr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital Investors’ head of investment strategy.
This reluctance may be what is holding back the bulls from breaking into a trot to get the Santa rally going.
By Goh Eng Yeow
14 November 2011
It would take an investor with a strong stomach to put up with the roller-coaster which hit global stock markets last week.
But while worries about Greece and Italy were occupying the newspaper headlines, the smart money was quietly nibbling at Asian equities as their share prices plummeted along with those in the rest of the world.
Data from Citi Investment Research shows that funds investing in emerging markets equities attracted about US$2.1billion (S$2.7 billion) in fresh money last week.
Although this was lower than the US$3.5 billion received in the previous week, the inflow suggested that investors were picking up stocks again, as they overcame the jitters that had kept them sidelined since early August.
The Citi data also showed that, within Asia, funds investing in Hong Kong and China equities stayed as the key winners for a second week, receiving the bulk of the new money, followed by Taiwan.
This is not surprising, considering that China was one of the few bright spots for investors, with a drop in inflation suggesting that the world’s No. 2 economy might have successfully engineered a soft landing.
For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.41 per cent, propelled by a strong showing on Friday.
Singapore’s benchmark Straits Times Index, however, fell 2.03 per cent, as investors dumped blue-chips such as Noble Group, Wilmar International and Genting Singapore, following their third-quarter results.
Still, the steady trickle of investors back into the market has revived hopes that the much-awaited traditional Santa rally is around the corner.
But in order to get the bulls galloping again, conditions in Europe will have to stabilise.
Last week, global stock markets suffered a seizure as Italian borrowing costs headed past 7 per cent into bailout territory, before enjoying a spectacular rebound on Friday, as yields fell back to 6.5 per cent.
To some investors, the rout suffered by Italian bonds resembled an old-fashioned bank run where panicky depositors rush to take out their money for fear that the bank will fail.
But in this case, the run was on something far bigger - the world’s seventh largest economy to be precise, and that could well have horrendous consequences beyond jittery depositors.
True, Italy may be one of the world’s most heavily indebted countries, owing about €2 trillion (S$3.5 trillion). But that does not mean it is in imminent danger of going bankrupt.
In fact, much of its debt is owned by its citizens, who have an estimated total wealth of €10 trillion and are unlikely to want their country to go into default.
For a bank run to subside, the besieged lender turns to a lender of last resort - usually the country’s central bank - to supply ample cash to meet depositors’ demands and restore faith that their money is in safe hands.
For Italy, the lender of last resort is the European Central Bank and it was the massive purchase of Italian bonds by the ECB that helped to push Italian bond yields down and stabilise the market.
But there is one problem. Market strategists noted that the ECB’s current ad hoc approach makes any relief temporary.
‘The ECB should be committing to unlimited purchases of Italian bonds in order to ward off speculators. Unfortunately, it remains reluctant to do this,’ said Mr Shane Oliver, AMP Capital Investors’ head of investment strategy.
This reluctance may be what is holding back the bulls from breaking into a trot to get the Santa rally going.
Sunday, 6 November 2011
四十年不敗「平民股神」股災教戰
繼八月份三天大跌九百點的股災後，九月二十二日、二十三日兩天，台股又跌四百九十點，今年詭譎的股市中，投資人如何明哲保身，甚至反敗為勝？
▲蘇松泙逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資 術」，積小勝為大勝（攝影者．許世穎）
「買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了！」四十年來沒有一年賠過錢、有「平民股神」之稱的蘇松泙，接受本刊專訪時特別強調。用這個標準來看，該不該停損？要不要攤平？風險要如何規避？他提供了他多年操作股票的心法，你可以檢視一下，你跟股神的心法有什麼不一樣。
「要不要賣？」「還會不會再跌？」「要不要攤平？」「快要被斷頭了？」一連串的疑問，充斥在市場中。九月二十二日及二十三日，短短兩天，加權股價指數大跌四百九十點，跌幅六．五％，台股市值一週就蒸發掉一兆四千億元，以全台八百八十萬開戶數估算，等於每戶都損失了十六萬元。
九月二十六日，週一，國安基金護盤，只演了半場好戲，尾盤再度急殺，大跌一百六十九．一點。投資人心冷了、心碎了，該怎麼辦？有什麼方法可以從這次股災中減少損失？又要如何逆境求生？
持股水位該設多少？
股神心法1：在空頭市場，持股別超過三成
我在任何時候，持股至少都三百萬，從兩千點漲到一萬點，一萬點再跌下來，一定會有三百萬。因為我是職業投資人，一定天天都有股票，就像一個種稻子的農夫一樣，不管大雨、颱風，我都要去看看我稻田裡的秧苗。
（今年是）四十年來，最差的一年。譬如我追強勢股，不管怎麼追，都沒辦法獲到大利。而且，漲都很慢漲，一跌很快就跌下來了。第二，除權除息股幾乎每一檔都跌價。這以我的觀念，就是在這地方賺不到錢了。所以我就把股票減碼，我在九千點的時候，股票大概剩下三百萬。這是我的基本持股，在我來講，也等於是零持股（蘇松泙個人資產上億元，持股水位約三％）。
三百萬也是天天去證券（行），換股換來換去，用那三百萬去換，換到股票不會跌了，我就慢慢加碼，加兩百加三百，一直加。一般加最多，也不容易加到三千萬以上。
以我認為，如果你有一百萬，（在空頭市場）就不要（投入）超過三十萬。
可以逢低攤平了嗎？
股神心法2：可減量換股，但絕對不能攤平
我最不建議任何人做攤平的動作。你可以換股操作，但一定不要攤平。你銀行股一千元跌到十二元你怎麼攤（一九九○年三商銀、國壽從高點崩盤）？禾伸堂從九百九十九元跌到幾元也不知道，你怎麼攤？
你可以減量。譬如你有四張股票，如果你想攤平兩張，我建議你把它賣兩張掉就好。就是你有想攤平的心理出來時，就把它變成賣出動作。
那如果你不想攤平，那就代表你想長期投資，你就長期投資。反正它不會讓你跌了晚上睡不著覺，漲了睡不著覺。這種就等看看就好。
套牢一堆如何操作？
股神心法3：不要不甘心，用分批出場停損
一般投資人是這樣，你叫他殺股票，好像叫他從一○一（大樓）跳下來一樣，有時我自己也會這樣，「唉呀，為什麼把這個股票賣了？」不管是漲還是跌，（投資人）要學習用平常心去看待買賣股票這個動作。
假設我現在有十張股票，現在一百元，假設當初一百二十五元買的。它跌到九十八元，我就先砍兩張，萬一它漲回來一百零二元，我一樣可以砍兩張，它又跌到九十六，你也可以再砍兩張。它又跌到九十，我只剩下四張，就不一定要砍啊，然後它再跌到八十，算了，我就都砍了，反正回去很難了。這樣就可慢慢把股票砍掉，離開它（原先）的高價區。
假設我現在五張股票，每一張都賠錢，最簡單，看到跌停鎖死的，不管，就把它全部砍掉。假設我有四張跌的，一張漲的，我就把一張跌的賣掉，同時把漲的也賣掉。我把小賠的股票賣掉，同時把小賺的股票也賣掉，這樣我獲利和虧損歸零（即賺賠都沖銷掉了）。
部位高較能賺錢嗎？
股神心法4：金額投越少，獲利反而能更大
我大概二十年前，那時幾乎隨時股票最低持股都是一千萬，但發現，做大，獲利不一定那麼大耶。後來把持股改下來，改到三百萬。發現，擺越少，獲利越大。
我們不用把錢都丟進去，但是可以有更靈活的操作。因為，現在假設我有五百萬，五百萬都買一張股票，任何人跟你說你要停損，我請教你，現在跌一○％時，你就考慮要不要停損嗎？那第二天一跌又跌到一三％，糟了，你就（會）想說等到股票回來，（反彈）到跌一○％（的價位），我就停損；當然沒有（出現），它就一路掉啦！那你怎麼捨得把它全部賣掉？你就會在那邊遲疑。一遲疑，後來忍不住（還是）把它賣了，賠了二○％，這樣永遠都是輸家。
大盤指數該怎麼看？
股神心法5：不必看指數，只要看選股方向
我會看國外美股、日股指數，但台股指數我從來不看。因為台股漲一百點、跌一百點也好，對我來講，都不影響什麼，我只有嚴格控制我的持股。我可以賺錢，就放大我股票的部位；我不能賺錢，我就縮小。
譬如股票現在九千點，人家都賺錢，我就賠錢啊，那九千點跟我沒有關係，我就把股票縮小。譬如現在跌到七千點，大家賠錢，我發現我不會賠錢，那就可以把股票（部位）放大。這也是我跟一般人不一樣的地方。我用我至少能夠獲利，來決定這個大盤指數對我來講是多頭還是空頭。
如何做股票沒壓力？
股神心法6：有賺才加碼，務必留下保命錢
做股票，先拿十萬元出來試試功力，有賺到一萬四，還可以再拿十萬元，等於二十萬（即使隔天跌停，損失一萬四千元，還是沒有賠到錢）。
一定是從小錢去賺，賺到再加碼。股票最好是用你自有的資金去賺錢，賺不到就算賠光光，也不會影響你的生活費。你如果壓力大，一定是賠錢的機會大於賺錢的機會。這跟房地產不一樣，你買下去，跌掉反正自己住的，住過十年、二十年，你就不會賠錢啦。
也不要用全部的錢去操作，留十分之二也好。跌到八千點、五千點，你還有錢，可以慢慢在那邊買進賣出。
不融資買股很難賺？
股神心法7：融資賠更慘，進場前先想風險
像我這樣，我從來也沒有覺得股票很好操作。有人說，「蘇先生，你怎麼買這麼少？我看你股票做很好，怎麼買這麼少？」，我說，「天下有這麼笨的人嗎？我如果知道明天這張股票會漲停板，我就都壓下去嘛！」對不對？但是我可以知道一次，我不可能知道十次啊，我壓對一次，壓錯九次怎麼辦？
如果你不用融資都賺不到錢，用融資更容易賠錢。就像你買一張股票都不賺錢，買一百張，一千張，更易賠錢。所以我做四十年股票，只有融資一次。融資會讓你獲得大利，也會讓你失敗。把風險放在前面，這樣就立於不敗之地了。你不敗，就可以利用時間，利用空間。
賠到睡不著怎麼辦？
股神心法8：晚上睡不好，代表你已透支了
（現在）就是跌到三千點，我還可以睡得著呢。不管你買多少股票，你晚上要睡得著。假設明天崩盤呢？我每一次出手，都當作明天股票會崩盤，明天崩盤你睡得著嗎？
買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了，你那時候買的股票已經太多了。
人人都會有想多買一點、或受到周遭氣氛鼓動貪心與衝動的人性弱點，為了嚴守投資紀律，蘇松泙會想出一些小方法來協助自己嚴格執行。
譬如在市場熱絡時，他會跟營業員說，假設他下了兩張以上的買單，那營業員必須在下單前，再跟蘇松泙確認一次，是否真的要買兩張。經過這樣的來回詢問，時間一延長，就有助降低買股票的衝動。
賠錢是散戶永遠不變的宿命嗎？蘇松泙就是不相信，而有了不蝕本投資術的操盤心法，今年的行情，他的觀察，過去，股價指數在九千點左右，成交量常常都在兩千億以上，今年，有時候一千億都不到，顯示沒有多少人賺到錢，一定要保守。
【延伸閱讀】6招不蝕本投資術
•嚴控持股水位。只用一部分資金進場操作，最多不超過3成
•股票漲時先賣7％。讓獲利先入袋，因為不知道股票會漲到哪一天
•不要只壓一檔。否則會患得患失，不甘認賠、不捨停利
•絕不使用融資。若買1張股票會賠，買10張更容易賠
•絕不攤平。只要被套牢，絕不加碼買進，只分批賣出
•順勢操作。但順的是自己手上股票的勢，而不是受氣氛鼓動，去順大盤人氣的勢
資料來源：《平民股神教你不蝕本投資術》
小檔案＿蘇松泙
出生：1951年
投資經歷：逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資術」，積小勝為大勝
成績單：
1.以3萬元本金投入股市，從負債200萬到目前身家上億元
2.以年結算，40年來從未虧損，金融海嘯當年仍獲利2百萬元
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 商業周刊 第1245期
Publish date: 03/10/11
▲蘇松泙逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資 術」，積小勝為大勝（攝影者．許世穎）
「買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了！」四十年來沒有一年賠過錢、有「平民股神」之稱的蘇松泙，接受本刊專訪時特別強調。用這個標準來看，該不該停損？要不要攤平？風險要如何規避？他提供了他多年操作股票的心法，你可以檢視一下，你跟股神的心法有什麼不一樣。
「要不要賣？」「還會不會再跌？」「要不要攤平？」「快要被斷頭了？」一連串的疑問，充斥在市場中。九月二十二日及二十三日，短短兩天，加權股價指數大跌四百九十點，跌幅六．五％，台股市值一週就蒸發掉一兆四千億元，以全台八百八十萬開戶數估算，等於每戶都損失了十六萬元。
九月二十六日，週一，國安基金護盤，只演了半場好戲，尾盤再度急殺，大跌一百六十九．一點。投資人心冷了、心碎了，該怎麼辦？有什麼方法可以從這次股災中減少損失？又要如何逆境求生？
持股水位該設多少？
股神心法1：在空頭市場，持股別超過三成
我在任何時候，持股至少都三百萬，從兩千點漲到一萬點，一萬點再跌下來，一定會有三百萬。因為我是職業投資人，一定天天都有股票，就像一個種稻子的農夫一樣，不管大雨、颱風，我都要去看看我稻田裡的秧苗。
（今年是）四十年來，最差的一年。譬如我追強勢股，不管怎麼追，都沒辦法獲到大利。而且，漲都很慢漲，一跌很快就跌下來了。第二，除權除息股幾乎每一檔都跌價。這以我的觀念，就是在這地方賺不到錢了。所以我就把股票減碼，我在九千點的時候，股票大概剩下三百萬。這是我的基本持股，在我來講，也等於是零持股（蘇松泙個人資產上億元，持股水位約三％）。
三百萬也是天天去證券（行），換股換來換去，用那三百萬去換，換到股票不會跌了，我就慢慢加碼，加兩百加三百，一直加。一般加最多，也不容易加到三千萬以上。
以我認為，如果你有一百萬，（在空頭市場）就不要（投入）超過三十萬。
可以逢低攤平了嗎？
股神心法2：可減量換股，但絕對不能攤平
我最不建議任何人做攤平的動作。你可以換股操作，但一定不要攤平。你銀行股一千元跌到十二元你怎麼攤（一九九○年三商銀、國壽從高點崩盤）？禾伸堂從九百九十九元跌到幾元也不知道，你怎麼攤？
你可以減量。譬如你有四張股票，如果你想攤平兩張，我建議你把它賣兩張掉就好。就是你有想攤平的心理出來時，就把它變成賣出動作。
那如果你不想攤平，那就代表你想長期投資，你就長期投資。反正它不會讓你跌了晚上睡不著覺，漲了睡不著覺。這種就等看看就好。
套牢一堆如何操作？
股神心法3：不要不甘心，用分批出場停損
一般投資人是這樣，你叫他殺股票，好像叫他從一○一（大樓）跳下來一樣，有時我自己也會這樣，「唉呀，為什麼把這個股票賣了？」不管是漲還是跌，（投資人）要學習用平常心去看待買賣股票這個動作。
假設我現在有十張股票，現在一百元，假設當初一百二十五元買的。它跌到九十八元，我就先砍兩張，萬一它漲回來一百零二元，我一樣可以砍兩張，它又跌到九十六，你也可以再砍兩張。它又跌到九十，我只剩下四張，就不一定要砍啊，然後它再跌到八十，算了，我就都砍了，反正回去很難了。這樣就可慢慢把股票砍掉，離開它（原先）的高價區。
假設我現在五張股票，每一張都賠錢，最簡單，看到跌停鎖死的，不管，就把它全部砍掉。假設我有四張跌的，一張漲的，我就把一張跌的賣掉，同時把漲的也賣掉。我把小賠的股票賣掉，同時把小賺的股票也賣掉，這樣我獲利和虧損歸零（即賺賠都沖銷掉了）。
部位高較能賺錢嗎？
股神心法4：金額投越少，獲利反而能更大
我大概二十年前，那時幾乎隨時股票最低持股都是一千萬，但發現，做大，獲利不一定那麼大耶。後來把持股改下來，改到三百萬。發現，擺越少，獲利越大。
我們不用把錢都丟進去，但是可以有更靈活的操作。因為，現在假設我有五百萬，五百萬都買一張股票，任何人跟你說你要停損，我請教你，現在跌一○％時，你就考慮要不要停損嗎？那第二天一跌又跌到一三％，糟了，你就（會）想說等到股票回來，（反彈）到跌一○％（的價位），我就停損；當然沒有（出現），它就一路掉啦！那你怎麼捨得把它全部賣掉？你就會在那邊遲疑。一遲疑，後來忍不住（還是）把它賣了，賠了二○％，這樣永遠都是輸家。
大盤指數該怎麼看？
股神心法5：不必看指數，只要看選股方向
我會看國外美股、日股指數，但台股指數我從來不看。因為台股漲一百點、跌一百點也好，對我來講，都不影響什麼，我只有嚴格控制我的持股。我可以賺錢，就放大我股票的部位；我不能賺錢，我就縮小。
譬如股票現在九千點，人家都賺錢，我就賠錢啊，那九千點跟我沒有關係，我就把股票縮小。譬如現在跌到七千點，大家賠錢，我發現我不會賠錢，那就可以把股票（部位）放大。這也是我跟一般人不一樣的地方。我用我至少能夠獲利，來決定這個大盤指數對我來講是多頭還是空頭。
如何做股票沒壓力？
股神心法6：有賺才加碼，務必留下保命錢
做股票，先拿十萬元出來試試功力，有賺到一萬四，還可以再拿十萬元，等於二十萬（即使隔天跌停，損失一萬四千元，還是沒有賠到錢）。
一定是從小錢去賺，賺到再加碼。股票最好是用你自有的資金去賺錢，賺不到就算賠光光，也不會影響你的生活費。你如果壓力大，一定是賠錢的機會大於賺錢的機會。這跟房地產不一樣，你買下去，跌掉反正自己住的，住過十年、二十年，你就不會賠錢啦。
也不要用全部的錢去操作，留十分之二也好。跌到八千點、五千點，你還有錢，可以慢慢在那邊買進賣出。
不融資買股很難賺？
股神心法7：融資賠更慘，進場前先想風險
像我這樣，我從來也沒有覺得股票很好操作。有人說，「蘇先生，你怎麼買這麼少？我看你股票做很好，怎麼買這麼少？」，我說，「天下有這麼笨的人嗎？我如果知道明天這張股票會漲停板，我就都壓下去嘛！」對不對？但是我可以知道一次，我不可能知道十次啊，我壓對一次，壓錯九次怎麼辦？
如果你不用融資都賺不到錢，用融資更容易賠錢。就像你買一張股票都不賺錢，買一百張，一千張，更易賠錢。所以我做四十年股票，只有融資一次。融資會讓你獲得大利，也會讓你失敗。把風險放在前面，這樣就立於不敗之地了。你不敗，就可以利用時間，利用空間。
賠到睡不著怎麼辦？
股神心法8：晚上睡不好，代表你已透支了
（現在）就是跌到三千點，我還可以睡得著呢。不管你買多少股票，你晚上要睡得著。假設明天崩盤呢？我每一次出手，都當作明天股票會崩盤，明天崩盤你睡得著嗎？
買股票買到晚上沒辦法好好入睡的話，這就代表，你已經透支了，你那時候買的股票已經太多了。
人人都會有想多買一點、或受到周遭氣氛鼓動貪心與衝動的人性弱點，為了嚴守投資紀律，蘇松泙會想出一些小方法來協助自己嚴格執行。
譬如在市場熱絡時，他會跟營業員說，假設他下了兩張以上的買單，那營業員必須在下單前，再跟蘇松泙確認一次，是否真的要買兩張。經過這樣的來回詢問，時間一延長，就有助降低買股票的衝動。
賠錢是散戶永遠不變的宿命嗎？蘇松泙就是不相信，而有了不蝕本投資術的操盤心法，今年的行情，他的觀察，過去，股價指數在九千點左右，成交量常常都在兩千億以上，今年，有時候一千億都不到，顯示沒有多少人賺到錢，一定要保守。
【延伸閱讀】6招不蝕本投資術
•嚴控持股水位。只用一部分資金進場操作，最多不超過3成
•股票漲時先賣7％。讓獲利先入袋，因為不知道股票會漲到哪一天
•不要只壓一檔。否則會患得患失，不甘認賠、不捨停利
•絕不使用融資。若買1張股票會賠，買10張更容易賠
•絕不攤平。只要被套牢，絕不加碼買進，只分批賣出
•順勢操作。但順的是自己手上股票的勢，而不是受氣氛鼓動，去順大盤人氣的勢
資料來源：《平民股神教你不蝕本投資術》
小檔案＿蘇松泙
出生：1951年
投資經歷：逾40年，自創「不蝕本投資術」，積小勝為大勝
成績單：
1.以3萬元本金投入股市，從負債200萬到目前身家上億元
2.以年結算，40年來從未虧損，金融海嘯當年仍獲利2百萬元
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 商業周刊 第1245期
Publish date: 03/10/11
Monday, 31 October 2011
Sunday, 30 October 2011
Cut loss is hard work, really!
by Posteado por passiontrader
Anybody who trades understand the concept of cutting loss, but not everyone can do it. Why is it so difficult to cut loss? It took me almost 3 years to made myself put that into action. It’s real hard work to fight against my own emotions. Being a stock broker for the last 3 years, I came to realized that if you can’t bring yourself to cut loss, you will not be in this game for long. So what are some of the reasons (or excuses) that traders give themselves for not cutting loss?
1. I can’t reconciled myself to do it
Imagine that you have monitor this stock for the past few days, and after you finally decide to buy, the stock price suddenly fall to your cut loss within 5 minutes after buying. How would you feel? Think most people will start screaming at themselves, “How can this happen to me?”, “Why me?” You will start to hate the market for doing this to you. You just can’t bring yourself to cut loss at this instant. Just 5 minutes into the game and I lose money!! How to accept this? Arrgh…. Well, you better be. There’s a well known saying among traders, “Your first loss is your best loss”. If you don’t cut now, you will probably end up incurring more losses.
2. The stock price will rise once I cut loss
Funny right? It seems that the market knows what you are buying and wants to make a fool of you. You don’t sell, it keeps on falling. Once you sell, the price starts to rise almost immediately. How you hate the market at that moment! It’s just like when you are driving and the lane you are in seems to be moving very slowly. You then decide to switch lane, but only to see the car behind you on the previous lane zoom pass and way ahead of you. You start scolding yourself why you ever switch lane in the first place! It happens, and I’ll guaranteed that it will happen again and again, as long as you are in the market (or as long as you are driving!). I don’t have any strategy that can avoid this, but what I can say is that if you do not cut loss because of this reason, you are going to lose more money than you make in the long run. This I can bet my entire fortune on it.
3. The price will rise in the future. I just need to hold it until then
Sure, it probably will, and I’m not going to argue with you about this. The next question I’m going to ask is, “For how long?” 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you leave your money inside the market for that long period, then you are not a trader. If you are not a trader, you shouldn’t be having this problem in the first place! One of the most important thing to have for a trader is cash, and cash flow is the essence of survival. If all your money is “stuck” in the market, then where are you going to find money to trade? You will miss all the profitable trades and that’s what we call opportunity costs.
4. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose money
Then I don’t see why you are worrying about falling stock prices. It shouldn’t affect you. Who cares if the share price continue to fall. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose. Let us be honest with ourselves here. Can you really not care about falling prices? You know in your heart that you lose money if the price continue to fall. it’s just that you do not want to face the problem, and the fact that problems don’t go away if you do not do anything about it. Yes, there maybe times when the price rises again and you make a profit, but do you really make money this way? I don’t think so.
Cutting losses is part and parcel of being a trader. It’s also the most difficult part of being a trader. If any of the above are your excuses for not cutting loss, then please stop them and really do it. If you still can’t bring yourself to cut loss, then don’t be a trader. Find some good companies and invest in them. Like what I said, cutting loss is really hard work. Not many people can do it, but you can if you really work on it.
Anybody who trades understand the concept of cutting loss, but not everyone can do it. Why is it so difficult to cut loss? It took me almost 3 years to made myself put that into action. It’s real hard work to fight against my own emotions. Being a stock broker for the last 3 years, I came to realized that if you can’t bring yourself to cut loss, you will not be in this game for long. So what are some of the reasons (or excuses) that traders give themselves for not cutting loss?
1. I can’t reconciled myself to do it
Imagine that you have monitor this stock for the past few days, and after you finally decide to buy, the stock price suddenly fall to your cut loss within 5 minutes after buying. How would you feel? Think most people will start screaming at themselves, “How can this happen to me?”, “Why me?” You will start to hate the market for doing this to you. You just can’t bring yourself to cut loss at this instant. Just 5 minutes into the game and I lose money!! How to accept this? Arrgh…. Well, you better be. There’s a well known saying among traders, “Your first loss is your best loss”. If you don’t cut now, you will probably end up incurring more losses.
2. The stock price will rise once I cut loss
Funny right? It seems that the market knows what you are buying and wants to make a fool of you. You don’t sell, it keeps on falling. Once you sell, the price starts to rise almost immediately. How you hate the market at that moment! It’s just like when you are driving and the lane you are in seems to be moving very slowly. You then decide to switch lane, but only to see the car behind you on the previous lane zoom pass and way ahead of you. You start scolding yourself why you ever switch lane in the first place! It happens, and I’ll guaranteed that it will happen again and again, as long as you are in the market (or as long as you are driving!). I don’t have any strategy that can avoid this, but what I can say is that if you do not cut loss because of this reason, you are going to lose more money than you make in the long run. This I can bet my entire fortune on it.
3. The price will rise in the future. I just need to hold it until then
Sure, it probably will, and I’m not going to argue with you about this. The next question I’m going to ask is, “For how long?” 1 year? 5 years? 10 years? If you leave your money inside the market for that long period, then you are not a trader. If you are not a trader, you shouldn’t be having this problem in the first place! One of the most important thing to have for a trader is cash, and cash flow is the essence of survival. If all your money is “stuck” in the market, then where are you going to find money to trade? You will miss all the profitable trades and that’s what we call opportunity costs.
4. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose money
Then I don’t see why you are worrying about falling stock prices. It shouldn’t affect you. Who cares if the share price continue to fall. As long as I don’t sell, I don’t lose. Let us be honest with ourselves here. Can you really not care about falling prices? You know in your heart that you lose money if the price continue to fall. it’s just that you do not want to face the problem, and the fact that problems don’t go away if you do not do anything about it. Yes, there maybe times when the price rises again and you make a profit, but do you really make money this way? I don’t think so.
Cutting losses is part and parcel of being a trader. It’s also the most difficult part of being a trader. If any of the above are your excuses for not cutting loss, then please stop them and really do it. If you still can’t bring yourself to cut loss, then don’t be a trader. Find some good companies and invest in them. Like what I said, cutting loss is really hard work. Not many people can do it, but you can if you really work on it.
Monday, 24 October 2011
Sunday, 16 October 2011
投資致勝首要條件 Stay in the game
蘋果教主喬布斯，離職養病，惜終不敵病魔，終年五十有六。七十年代起家，先創辦蘋果電腦（AAPL），中途被逐蒙難，轉搞彼思動畫（PIXAR），一樣有聲有色。喜獲迪士尼（DIS）收購，續變身迪士尼大股東。另一檔生意NeXT，又被蘋果收購，最終回巢效力。重掌帥印後，將公司起死回生，比之前更加成功。蘋果最強的i字頭系列，都在這「中興」年代推出，產品廣受歡迎。據估計，喬布斯起碼顛覆了全球六大產業：個人電腦、手機、音樂、動畫、電子書、平板電腦。奮鬥三十餘年，已有力翻天覆地，如若再幹十年，會是何等景象？可惜，歷史沒有如果，傳奇不幸作結。
壽命限制事業成就
人的壽命，往往限制事業上的成就。當然，能投入工作的年份，才有意義。所以具有健康的身心，更形重要。對投資者而言，只要一息尚存，仍有建功立業機會，故此要有所成，首要身壯力健，二要保存財政實力，將留在市場的時間，延至最長。股神巴菲特，之所以能夠封神，一項重要因素，就是夠長壽。其首次登上世界首富寶座，是二○○八年，當時已屆七十八歲高齡。如股神像喬氏一般，不敵天數大限，只活到五十餘歲，即八十年代中，則其時連名震天下的傑作：可口可樂（KO），都尚未買入，總結成績，自然大打折扣。炒神索羅斯，更要到四十歲，才與羅傑斯開檔，首次管理基金。到擊潰英鎊一役，行年六十有二，就嚟有生果金攞。
留於市場時間，愈長愈着數，有幾個原因：首先是複利的威力。愛因斯坦謂：「複利乃宇宙間最強力量，是世界第八大奇迹。」年賺一成半，五年翻一番，純粹中學數，完全沒難度。又，股神曰：「時間為好公司之友，壞公司之敵。」當持有的股份，長年累月賺取利潤、派發股息，多年後回望，會在不覺間漸有所成。
投資技巧經驗累積
其次是知識、經驗，會隨時間累積。投資就如學英文，一開始從頭學起，字母、詞匯、句式、文法，最後才是作文。最初字母都未背完，出去同人鬥寫，自然瓜多過菜。多數人沒度過最初階段，但存活夠久，經歷漸長，開始識寫一段仔，雖然高手仍然眾多，但由於開始拋離入門新手，死亡率會逐漸下降，技巧亦漸進。在投資上，到了某一階段，譬如經過前兩年的海嘯，又或是近一年的波動，仍能力保不失，或許證明已找到生存之道。
而投資要有大成，也講點際遇，像股神亦要碰上八七股災，可口可樂回落，才有機會買入。下一次機會，何時降臨，無人能知，唯一可以肯定，待在市場愈久，碰上的機會愈多。同時，因為遇到機會的時間未明，時常保留一定的購買力，也相當重要。
金錢遊戲，人之所需，難以告終。喬布斯嘗勉勵後進謂：Stay hungry. Stay foolish.誠哉斯言。投資投機，欲更進一步，則宜加上：Stay in the game.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 / 輯錄自 424期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】
Publish date:11/10/11
壽命限制事業成就
人的壽命，往往限制事業上的成就。當然，能投入工作的年份，才有意義。所以具有健康的身心，更形重要。對投資者而言，只要一息尚存，仍有建功立業機會，故此要有所成，首要身壯力健，二要保存財政實力，將留在市場的時間，延至最長。股神巴菲特，之所以能夠封神，一項重要因素，就是夠長壽。其首次登上世界首富寶座，是二○○八年，當時已屆七十八歲高齡。如股神像喬氏一般，不敵天數大限，只活到五十餘歲，即八十年代中，則其時連名震天下的傑作：可口可樂（KO），都尚未買入，總結成績，自然大打折扣。炒神索羅斯，更要到四十歲，才與羅傑斯開檔，首次管理基金。到擊潰英鎊一役，行年六十有二，就嚟有生果金攞。
留於市場時間，愈長愈着數，有幾個原因：首先是複利的威力。愛因斯坦謂：「複利乃宇宙間最強力量，是世界第八大奇迹。」年賺一成半，五年翻一番，純粹中學數，完全沒難度。又，股神曰：「時間為好公司之友，壞公司之敵。」當持有的股份，長年累月賺取利潤、派發股息，多年後回望，會在不覺間漸有所成。
投資技巧經驗累積
其次是知識、經驗，會隨時間累積。投資就如學英文，一開始從頭學起，字母、詞匯、句式、文法，最後才是作文。最初字母都未背完，出去同人鬥寫，自然瓜多過菜。多數人沒度過最初階段，但存活夠久，經歷漸長，開始識寫一段仔，雖然高手仍然眾多，但由於開始拋離入門新手，死亡率會逐漸下降，技巧亦漸進。在投資上，到了某一階段，譬如經過前兩年的海嘯，又或是近一年的波動，仍能力保不失，或許證明已找到生存之道。
而投資要有大成，也講點際遇，像股神亦要碰上八七股災，可口可樂回落，才有機會買入。下一次機會，何時降臨，無人能知，唯一可以肯定，待在市場愈久，碰上的機會愈多。同時，因為遇到機會的時間未明，時常保留一定的購買力，也相當重要。
金錢遊戲，人之所需，難以告終。喬布斯嘗勉勵後進謂：Stay hungry. Stay foolish.誠哉斯言。投資投機，欲更進一步，則宜加上：Stay in the game.
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊 / 輯錄自 424期 Book A 【大英Blog物館】
Publish date:11/10/11
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)