具有“香港股神”之称的曹仁超昨日在深圳举行的“华润信托2011年投资论坛”上指出，经济转型为资本市场带来了新的契机，看好内地地产、金融、消费、医疗、保险、信息、旅游等领域未来的发展空间。
“吸取了1980年代日本的历史教训，中国内地2009年起已开始阻止楼市泡沫恶化及银行信贷过度膨胀，应可避免经济出现硬着陆，但软着陆或难以避免。”曹仁超认为，随着信贷收缩、经济增长率逐渐放缓，内地经济将进入一段较长时期的平稳发展期；而从长期来看，内地已面对经济转型期或称后工业社会，由2007年开始，应有15年到20年的高增长。
在曹仁超看来，内地经济自2007年开始已从“百花齐放”期步入“汰弱留强”期。中小企业的市场占有率不断被大企业侵蚀；出口、制造业所占GDP比重下降，服务业、房地产、金融、虚拟经济等所占GDP比重上升，行业性盛衰交替出现。
“有些行业在GDP中的比重将不断提升，而有些行业则会萎缩，可谓是危机与商机并存。”曹仁超指出，地产、金融、消费、医疗、保险、信息、旅游等理论上仍有很大发展空间，这些领域将成为经济增长重点。
但是，这并不意味着制造业等传统领域就完全没有投资机会，曹仁超认为，内地制造业自2007年起已出现十分激烈的淘汰赛，不少工业股股价跌幅高达80%或以上，约30%或以上的中小型工厂已被淘汰出局。工业股经整合后相信在今年第四季开始应有上升空间。
此外，曹仁超还认为，消费股在过去几年升幅十分大，部分估值已到了极不合理水平，如有意外，股价出现大幅滑落机会很大。
而对于内地目前的楼市，他则持谨慎态度，“今年内地一线城市楼价已停止上升，只依赖二线城市楼价上升去支撑，这代表内地城市房地产的投资吸引力已开始下降，投资者宜小心。”
http://www.caorenchao.com/1249.html
Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 曹仁超博客
Publish date:25/08/11
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn
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