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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 根据PE、PS指标量化投资,其基础必须是存在业务稳定性
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Note:
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Monday 20 August 2012

根据PE、PS指标量化投资,其基础必须是存在业务稳定性


根据PE、PS指标量化投资,其基础必须是存在业务稳定性。

  这两个指标,体现不出来企业实际资产质量,是建立在企业净资产基础上的量化数据。

  一旦,企业资产形成的商业竞争优势被突破,将变成镜中花、水中月。


  有很多企业,其净资产数量有限,依靠无形资产优势,形成商业竞争壁垒,这类企业比较特殊。

  例如:传媒、广告、公关、科技信息、专利研发......

  苹果,就是个典型例子,作为世界第一市值公司,苹果的科技与商业壁垒一旦被突破,产品出现大规模滞销,业绩大幅下滑,戴维斯他老人家就会疯狂肆虐。



  为什么,亚马逊这个企业很可怕?

  因为,亚马逊的业绩成长,是建立在非常坚实的能够产生现金流规模扩张的固定资产基础上。

  物流中心,这种资产是重资产,最惨的情况下,这些物流中心还能具备实际价值。

  科技、品牌资产都被突破,还能残存固定资产,给股东留了一块裤衩。

  这块裤衩,也恰恰是亚马逊庞大业务的实际支撑基础。通过科技创新,以最高效率运用固定资产,形成无形资产增值,是亚马逊最成功的地方。

  给你亚马逊市值的资金,你必须要攻破其品牌、科技壁垒,还要攻克其固定资产重置壁垒,这就变得非常困难。



  苏宁,最重要的不是PE指标,而是,PB、PS指标。

  净利润,不是最值得关注的。因为,需要进行极为庞大的固定资产建设投资,给股东们的私处留块裤衩。没有这款裤衩,一旦,品牌、商业模式被对手攻克,就彻底归零了,戴维斯他老人家就会疯狂肆虐。有这款裤衩,最坏还可以转型为DHL,做一个纯粹的物流企业,还有机会东山再起,没有,可真就是命悬一线,生死较量。



  饥饿游戏,对于那些缺乏PB指标支撑,仅仅具备PS指标支撑的电子商务企业来说,裤衩已飞。

  净资产,在有效亏损消耗下,江河日下,非常危险。

  

  谁穿没穿裤衩,要不了太久,就会知道。

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