Rex International (REXI SP) BUY
Price/Target: S$0.605/S$1.27 Market Cap: S$662.4m
Bridging the gap between current distressed 60cts share price & fair value of existing Oil assets at SGD1.27
Our View:
1. Rex's share price has been a dog, underperforming -20% post-76cts placement to Institutional Funds because:
a. Investors, mainly retailers/HNW that have participated in Rex's share price >80cts are selling at distressed levels because:
i. Investors getting sceptical on Rex's technology being able to find Oil
(To mitigate this, Rex has proven that Virtual Technology works as recent in its Norway's North Energy Test where it has 85% success rate. Oman Oil find likely at end Dec 13 or early Jan 14 will put these misplaced fears to rest; Oman had started drilling at end Nov 13 & all points to a very likely commercial Oil end Dec 13/early Jan 14.
ii. Investors misperceived that Newsflow has been erratic
(This has not been true. Rex has given on average one major newsflow in 2 weeks over the last 2 months. It has at least made the Institutional Investors stay the course & wait for the major oil find in Oman, Norway, UAE & US which will re-rate stock closer to our fair SGD1.27 value.
2. Going forward, Rex's Mgt likely to try to bridge the current distressed 60cts share price closer to its SGD1.27 fair value by:
a. More active & regular newsflow (targetted likely once a week) until Feb 2014 to:
i. Rex's Mgt is actively looking at its Long-Term growth & at the same time mindful that in the Short-Term, share price do not erode below a distressed threshold that will break the psychology of genuine Mid-Term investors i.e. Global Funds & strong HNW holders
ii. Assure Global Institutional Investors that Rex is having major newsflow that is cashflow & profit impactful in 2014 & beyond
b. More active engagement with Global Institutional Funds via roadshow & meetings with relevant Oil & Gas partners
c. Getting more Global brokers to cover Rex to have new & larger global investors buying into Rex i.e. likely to happen post-Oman by end Dec 13/early Jan 14
3. Newsflow is likely to be more frequent, consistent & material to mitigate the bad sentiment against S'pore Small Caps:
a. Subsequent to the penny stock saga, poor market sentiments have affected the performance of E&P stocks like Rex. However, nothing has changed fundamentally as Rex seeks to revolutionize the E&P industry with its proprietary and innovative Rex technology. Rex has also been able to grow its licence portfolio through leveraging on Rex Technology to farm in to licenses from E&P companies like North Energy. Key dates to note are the results of Rex's first exploration well in Oman which is expected to be known by end Dec 13/Jan 14. Thanks. Mans
What's New:
· To acquire 20% stake in new Norway licence, PL509. Rex's 65% owned entity, Lime Petroleum (Lime), has signed an agreement with Oslo Axess listed, North Energy, to acquire a 20% stake in a new licence in Norway, PL509. (pending regulatory approval)
· About PL509: 977 km2 of oil prospects in the North Sea. The prospect has been reviewed using Rex Virtual Drilling, and the company is very excited about the prospects there.
· New license bring current total no. of licenses which Rex has interest in to 16. 7 Norway licenses, Rak Onshore, Sharjah offshore, Oman Block 50 offshore, Rak North Offshore, 3 Trinidad & Tobago Onshore licenses, 2 US onshore licenses
· North Energy is a believer of Rex Technology. In their 2Q results presentation earlier this year, North Energy shared the results of the 59 prospects that they had analyzed using Rex Virtual Drilling over the past 2 years. Of the 41 wells drilled, 35 predictions were forecasted accurately (85% success rate)
16 predicted positive – 11 drilled with commercial oil (69% accuracy)
25 predicted negative—24 were dry (96% accuracy)
· Strategic relationship with North Energy. As a result of the positive record North Energy had with Rex Technology, Rex shares a very strong strategic relationship with North Energy. All 7 Norwegian licenses held through Lime Petroleum were acquired from North Energy.
· Growing its license portfolio through North Energy. In the 22nd licensing round by the Norwegian Oil & energy Department in June 2013, North Energy was awarded 6 licenses-- the second largest license awardee. Rex expects Lime to grow its portfolio to up to 15 licences in 2014.
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20131205_RIH_PressRelease_PL509 by Mu Quek Siong
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