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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 第8频道《早安你好》骆伟嵩 8月4日 现场采访:新加坡股市还有希望上吗?
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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Wednesday 6 August 2014

第8频道《早安你好》骆伟嵩 8月4日 现场采访:新加坡股市还有希望上吗?

1) 本地股市上周五闭市3344点,下滑29点或0.88%。请回顾/总结上周本地股市整体表现。


这周的表现因为星期四美国大掉而受了影响。虽然整个星期没什么涨,但是整个7月,海指已经涨了接近100点。
这是一个相当强的表现。
几个月前,大家还记得我提过第三季我们预测海指就会突破3300点,在33003450点徘徊。
这个月真的看到了。
虽然这几天下滑,我们还是保持这个观点。STI还是很抗跌的。虽然星期五大掉30点,但是大家不要担心。这一次跌我们觉得可能不深。
最多到3300点就是很大的支持了。
原因是资金还在新兴市场,在新加坡。
很多朋友可能这个月判断大调整,但是可能要失望了
大家要趁着几天的下滑进场,投资一下业绩报告不错的股票。


2)
大华银行和星展集团已于上周公布业绩报告。华侨银行将于明天发布业绩。您怎么看本地银行业接下来的表现?房价下跌,贷款业务自然受影响,这会冲击到银行业的走势?
我们曾经说过银行股跟STI的走势是一样的。
sti上银行股上。sti掉,银行股掉。
为什么银行股不跌?因为sti一直涨。
我觉得短期还是可能还会上涨,因为sti还有机会涨一些。
但长期投资就不要,3450就要掉了。
几时买最好?当sti急跌的时候买最好!

两支股票都表现都比预期的期望好一点。但是星期五不同的遭遇。相比这两支股票,如果利率上升,DBS的风险管理会比UOB还要好。



3) 新交所第四季净利下跌12%7740万元。新交所预期其证券业务在接下来一年将从过去艰难的一个年中复苏,因为股市料将从低波动性恢复至一般的波动性水平。您预料SGX下来会收复失地吗?
-证券业务的营收下跌15%

SGX的业务来自多少人买卖股票,越多人买卖股票,利润越大。
去年下半年STI的表现都很不理想因为股市都不怎么好。
特别是10月小股大掉也造成很多朋友避开股票。这也反映在整年的业绩里。
但是我们觉得SGX现在往上走的可能相当大。
今年自从2STI一直往上冲。我觉得这驶到投资家对股票更有兴趣了。相信今年SGX业绩会比去年好。

4)
新加坡股市将在今后两年内推行多项改革。这估计将影响超过200家股价目前低于$0.20的主板挂牌公司。新规定实行后,这些公司怎么办?股市改革如何影响股民?
-Mar 2015:主板挂牌公司的股价不得低于$0.20(以改善主板股票的素质)
-Jan 2015:所有股票的每张交易单位从1000股减为100

我觉得这个决策对股民是好的。大家可以看到这样的决策纯粹是希望股民少投资在那些非常小的股票。自从去年十月发生恐慌,SGX就希望防止这件事情再发生。
从两个方面:一是不完太小的股票,而是减低大家的门槛。1LOT=100股,这样能让大家投资少一点,开始留意比较高的价格股。


5) 美国股市上周五继周四大跌后继续下滑,道指闭市16493点,滑落70点。
在近期,华尔街股市创出了过去两年来最为糟糕的单周表现,这足以使得市场投资者开始担心股市是否会出现过度调整?您认为呢?
-标普500指数累计下滑2.7%,创自20126月以来的最大单周跌幅
-道指连续第四个交易日走低,上周累计下挫2.8%

不用担心。我觉得美国股市和经济都相当的健康。
道指的支持在16300点。现在道指在16500点左右。跌多200点,大家就可以开始留意了。


6) 海指的阻力点和支持水平在?
就在3300-3450。我觉的海指要跌破3300点的支持不容易。怎么跌,可能怎么反弹回来。


7) 请预计今早本地股市开盘后的走势。

我觉得因为美国星期五下跌的关系,可能会开低,但是我觉得很有可能会回来,开低走高的现象。整体的新加坡股市还是相当的健康的。这种信心会驶到股市还往上升。

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