2011/05/28
The bulls most certainly have lost their mojo in May, but they will be inching for some payback time come next month.
May has been a lacklustre month. Many will be happy to see the back of this month, except for those who short stocks.
Malaysia allows investors to short some stocks, but the short market here is so thinly-traded. Often people don't bother to check if the stocks they are contemplating buying have been shorted.
"Shorts" make money when the price of the stock they are shorting goes down.
They could be making a killing this month, as statistics show equities often do not perform well in May.
Why is that so? I really don't know. It could be due to the same reason why the world is round, or that the Beatles are from Liverpool, I guess.
Coming back to serious business, statistics show that since the start of the 21 century, the benchmark FBM KLCI has been closing 60 per cent of the time lower in May from its end-April close.
In June, however, investors will spring to life, take a little bit more risks, which eventually helps drive prices upwards.
In this century alone, the FBM KLCI chart point shows there is a 72.77 per cent chance of the index trending higher in June, compared to May's closing value.
So, how bad has May been? Well, let's just put it this way.
Jerneh Asia Bhd, which is not a shelf company nor assetless, said it might pay anywhere between RM1.87 and RM2.52 a share dividend by as early as August. On top of that, the company is also proposing a capital repayment of between RM1.36 to RM1.41 a share.
If we were to take the low side of the dividend and capital repayment, Jerneh will be returning a minimum of RM3.23, while on the top end, the maximum will be RM3.93 a share.
With such an attractive proposal, one would have expected a boisterous reaction. Instead, the share price went up by 3 sen to RM3.22 on the trading day after the announcement was made. Hardly inspiring.
When the bear rules the roost, investors try to be more sensible, but come June, when markets are a bit more robust, the ground is fertile for optimism to overcome sensibilities.
Hence, even the wierdest, remotest piece of news within the market place could end up being a cash boon for the odd speculator.
So, brace yourself for a slew of research reports, new targets, fresh buys and impending earnings momentum to capture the limelight next month from some of the same analysts who missed all the major stockmarket meltdowns by a mile in recent times.
June could be a very active month and fruitful to the daily trader, provided of course, irritating mosquitoes like external factors don't spoil the party.
Hope for the best. Hope for the Dow Jones not to bite the dust. Hope for oil prices to find some common sense but most of all, hope that the average Malaysian purse string isn't put to the test.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/05/11
The bulls most certainly have lost their mojo in May, but they will be inching for some payback time come next month.
May has been a lacklustre month. Many will be happy to see the back of this month, except for those who short stocks.
Malaysia allows investors to short some stocks, but the short market here is so thinly-traded. Often people don't bother to check if the stocks they are contemplating buying have been shorted.
"Shorts" make money when the price of the stock they are shorting goes down.
They could be making a killing this month, as statistics show equities often do not perform well in May.
Why is that so? I really don't know. It could be due to the same reason why the world is round, or that the Beatles are from Liverpool, I guess.
Coming back to serious business, statistics show that since the start of the 21 century, the benchmark FBM KLCI has been closing 60 per cent of the time lower in May from its end-April close.
In June, however, investors will spring to life, take a little bit more risks, which eventually helps drive prices upwards.
In this century alone, the FBM KLCI chart point shows there is a 72.77 per cent chance of the index trending higher in June, compared to May's closing value.
So, how bad has May been? Well, let's just put it this way.
Jerneh Asia Bhd, which is not a shelf company nor assetless, said it might pay anywhere between RM1.87 and RM2.52 a share dividend by as early as August. On top of that, the company is also proposing a capital repayment of between RM1.36 to RM1.41 a share.
If we were to take the low side of the dividend and capital repayment, Jerneh will be returning a minimum of RM3.23, while on the top end, the maximum will be RM3.93 a share.
With such an attractive proposal, one would have expected a boisterous reaction. Instead, the share price went up by 3 sen to RM3.22 on the trading day after the announcement was made. Hardly inspiring.
When the bear rules the roost, investors try to be more sensible, but come June, when markets are a bit more robust, the ground is fertile for optimism to overcome sensibilities.
Hence, even the wierdest, remotest piece of news within the market place could end up being a cash boon for the odd speculator.
So, brace yourself for a slew of research reports, new targets, fresh buys and impending earnings momentum to capture the limelight next month from some of the same analysts who missed all the major stockmarket meltdowns by a mile in recent times.
June could be a very active month and fruitful to the daily trader, provided of course, irritating mosquitoes like external factors don't spoil the party.
Hope for the best. Hope for the Dow Jones not to bite the dust. Hope for oil prices to find some common sense but most of all, hope that the average Malaysian purse string isn't put to the test.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.btimes.com.my
Publish date:28/05/11
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