by Rachel Adrienne Kelly
04:47 AM May 20, 2011
Singapore - Less than a month after it warned of dark clouds looming in the external environment, the Government yesterday revised upwards its outlook for the Singapore economy, forecasting growth of 5 to 7 per cent this year, up a full percentage point from its previous forecast of 4 to 6 per cent.
Mr Kwek Mean Luck, Deputy Secretary (Industry) at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), said that, with the manufacturing sector rebounding by 75 per cent on a sequential quarterly basis and the better-than-expected overall first-quarter numbers, 2011 is enjoying a "firm start" and "the economy is on track to deliver higher growth this year compared to what we earlier anticipated".
Analysts said the upward revision was expected after the MTI released stellar growth rates last month of 23.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, on a quarterly and year-on-year basis in its preliminary estimate for the first quarter, beating even the most bullish of private sector forecasts.
The MTI yesterday trimmed the first-quarter growth numbers to 22.5 per cent from the previous quarter and 8.3 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier.
Analysts called yesterday's full-year growth forecast upgrade conservative, saying that it reflected ongoing risks including the Euro zone debt crisis, tensions in the Middle East leading to high oil prices, and further fallout from the March 11 triple whammy of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan.
In the PAP's party political broadcast in the run-up to the May 7 General Election, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had flagged these risks as some of the "dark clouds on the horizon" among others, such as the US budget crisis and security threats in the region.
On the MTI's upgrade, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: "There are no surprises as the strong first-quarter number always carries through to the rest of the year."
The robust growth was spurred by the strength of the biomedical manufacturing cluster and a better-than-expected performance of the service industries.
DBS economist Irvin Seah said strong tourist arrivals in recent months have boosted retail, tourism and the other services segments.
He said: "Spearheaded by the gaming industry, the other services industry is set to take pole position as the fastest-growing segment this year."
Integrated resort operator Genting Singapore, for example, turned to a first-quarter profit of S$305 million in the three months ended March 31 as turnover almost tripled to S$923 million, driven in large part by high-rolling gamblers.
And Mr Seah added that fund flows into Singapore have been strong and will continue to power the financial services industry.
But in a stark reminder that the path ahead may not be all smooth, Japan's Cabinet Office yesterday confirmed that Asia's second largest economy was in recession, with gross domestic product shrinking 0.9 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, and 3.7 per cent in annualised terms.
HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said Singapore's growth is expected to ease in the near term "partly reflecting a base effect after the rapid sequential growth in Q1, but also as the impact of the elevated oil prices and the calamities in Japan are felt more in Q2."
"Still, barring any escalation of the unrest in the Middle East and an associated jump in oil prices, growth is expected to hold up well and come in at or possibly above potential growth," he added.
Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.todayonline.com/
04:47 AM May 20, 2011
Singapore - Less than a month after it warned of dark clouds looming in the external environment, the Government yesterday revised upwards its outlook for the Singapore economy, forecasting growth of 5 to 7 per cent this year, up a full percentage point from its previous forecast of 4 to 6 per cent.
Mr Kwek Mean Luck, Deputy Secretary (Industry) at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), said that, with the manufacturing sector rebounding by 75 per cent on a sequential quarterly basis and the better-than-expected overall first-quarter numbers, 2011 is enjoying a "firm start" and "the economy is on track to deliver higher growth this year compared to what we earlier anticipated".
Analysts said the upward revision was expected after the MTI released stellar growth rates last month of 23.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, on a quarterly and year-on-year basis in its preliminary estimate for the first quarter, beating even the most bullish of private sector forecasts.
The MTI yesterday trimmed the first-quarter growth numbers to 22.5 per cent from the previous quarter and 8.3 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier.
Analysts called yesterday's full-year growth forecast upgrade conservative, saying that it reflected ongoing risks including the Euro zone debt crisis, tensions in the Middle East leading to high oil prices, and further fallout from the March 11 triple whammy of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan.
In the PAP's party political broadcast in the run-up to the May 7 General Election, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had flagged these risks as some of the "dark clouds on the horizon" among others, such as the US budget crisis and security threats in the region.
On the MTI's upgrade, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: "There are no surprises as the strong first-quarter number always carries through to the rest of the year."
The robust growth was spurred by the strength of the biomedical manufacturing cluster and a better-than-expected performance of the service industries.
DBS economist Irvin Seah said strong tourist arrivals in recent months have boosted retail, tourism and the other services segments.
He said: "Spearheaded by the gaming industry, the other services industry is set to take pole position as the fastest-growing segment this year."
Integrated resort operator Genting Singapore, for example, turned to a first-quarter profit of S$305 million in the three months ended March 31 as turnover almost tripled to S$923 million, driven in large part by high-rolling gamblers.
And Mr Seah added that fund flows into Singapore have been strong and will continue to power the financial services industry.
But in a stark reminder that the path ahead may not be all smooth, Japan's Cabinet Office yesterday confirmed that Asia's second largest economy was in recession, with gross domestic product shrinking 0.9 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, and 3.7 per cent in annualised terms.
HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said Singapore's growth is expected to ease in the near term "partly reflecting a base effect after the rapid sequential growth in Q1, but also as the impact of the elevated oil prices and the calamities in Japan are felt more in Q2."
"Still, barring any escalation of the unrest in the Middle East and an associated jump in oil prices, growth is expected to hold up well and come in at or possibly above potential growth," he added.
Source/转贴/Extract/: http://www.todayonline.com/
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