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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招-第36招 “捡便宜”可别反成“捡破烂”
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Saturday 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招-第36招 “捡便宜”可别反成“捡破烂”

在支配金钱上,我是个非常谨慎的人。举个例说,我只会等到百货公司在打折的时候去大肆采购。因此,同样的东西我总是买得比别人便宜。办公室同事都对我这种自制功夫羡慕不已,并且建议我进军股票市场,替大家“复仇”,因为他们从来没有捡到过任何便宜。终于,我进场了!想知道此后一年我在股市中的“辉煌”战果吗?

在永远把持不追高,而且只在股价拉回之后才去捡便宜的原则下,10次中我就“中奖”了8次,而且这8次都是全程参与了股价的“一路跳楼大甩卖”!简直太不像话了!同事一致推派我为代表来请教您这个问题,责任重大啊!

  我见过不少投资人,他们不但谨慎而且极具自制力,懂得不追高的道理——无论个股怎么狂飙,他们都毫不动心,因为生怕会接到最后一棒!但是,尽管如此,到最后他们仍是大输家,这究竟是为什么?

  以实例说明:当个股由50元一路飙升到100元的过程中,王小姐虽然好几度都忍不住想在100元附近买进,但都由于个性谨慎,不愿追高而打消了念头。这种投资态度及策略其实极为正确,因为只要运气欠佳,谁都可能买到最高点!当然,眼睁睁地看到自己注意已久但一直没买的个股天天涨停板,那种滋味就好比在炎热的夏天,只能望着别人吃冰淇淋,而且是从头看到尾。这简直是种酷刑!所幸王小姐的自制力极佳,她坚持不追高的决心丝毫没有动摇!

  一个月后,股价终于开始拉回,由最高峰盘旋了两个星期的100元跌回到了90元,而且停了好几天。在“受尽煎熬”苦苦等候了这么久以后,王小姐除了庆幸自己的正确判断,没有在最高点的100元买进以外,她更兴高采烈地下单以每股90元的“低价”一口气买了10手。

但不幸的事发生了,股价又开始天天下滑,一转眼便由90元跌到了80元。当然她又以捡便宜的心态再加买了5手!问题是,股价却是越买越低,十几天后,竟然跌回到起涨点的50元。股价这般走法已经将王小姐气得对买股票完全失去了信心!她觉得自己发挥了高度的耐心才终于等到了回档,但仍落到目前严重套牢的下场,真是灰心透了!

  其实,在股市中,有太多人都犯了同样的错误,认为个股在回档的时候便可以开始大捡便宜了。依我的观察,在“大起大落”阶段的股市中,我们宁愿“追涨”而不去“追跌”!因为,当一只飙股一旦不再风光而开始走软,往往是即将暴跌的前兆。“怎么上就怎么下”是这类个股的最佳写照!

  通常在一只个股开始回档整理的初期,反而是最危险的时刻,千万不要认为是捡到了便宜!特别是有大户穿梭其中,炒过了头的个股,它的整理期会相对加长,在没有经过一段股价“直直落”而成交量“急急缩”的漫长打底过程,最好敬而远之。

  在华尔街服务期间,我便遇见过一只曾经风光了一年的超级热门股突然当头碰上了利空,股价竟然由198元跌跌停停地摔到了一年以后的5块钱。你们知道有多少人一路都在“捡便宜”吗?“捡便宜”反成了“捡破烂”,真是有苦说不出!

  整体而言,股价的拉回分“短暂休息”与“长期整理”两种,如果不懂得如何分辨,那我劝你赶紧参考第23招的“春江水暖‘量’先知”,在值得注意的攻击量尚未放出之前,千万别又因手痒去捡便宜了!

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