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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招-51大跌之后的反弹是真是假
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Saturday 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招-51大跌之后的反弹是真是假

投资人问:
我哥哥经常在家人面前吹嘘他在股市中是多么的风光,别人遇上股市大跌总是愁眉苦脸,他反而是笑容满面,因为每次都能利用大跌来抢到反弹,讲得我们都好羡慕。但是最近一个月来他变了,变得有些沉默寡言了!

原因是“抢”到了一波比一波跌得更低的“反弹”!我建议他来请教胡老师,他却老说什么“不好意思”,看样子还真是好面子呢!没办法啊,我只有一个哥哥,每天看到他总是垂头丧气的,实在于心不忍,也只有“代兄发问”了!可否赐教一招“抢反弹时如何自保”?哥哥必将感激不尽!

眼见你们兄弟情深,我怎能不助一臂之力呢?不过,在股市中“面子”并不重要,“里子”才最实际。股海浩瀚,玄机无边,我们都经常要向高手请教,你哥哥的脸皮怎么会这么薄呢?唉!

投资人常有的疑惑:昨日指数大跌,但今天又立刻止跌回升,究竟该不该及时抢个反弹呢?

处于这种情况,买或不买应取决于这个反弹是否内含足够的力道。如果能够同时符合下面两项价与量的标准,才算是带劲的反弹,不是陷阱,可以大胆进货:
(1)今日反弹的幅度,已经超过昨日跌幅的50%以上
(2)今日的成交量,较昨日成交量高出20%以上

如果不符合这两项条件,那么这个反弹,常只是挑逗,之后继续下跌的可能性很大。手中持股原本已不少的人,只有在完全符合上两项标准的反弹下,才可以放心地加买几手。

有一年,我应邀到洛杉矶的一个投资俱乐部演讲,当时股市正陷在长期低迷状态之中,凡是喜欢抢个跌深反弹的人都一次又一次地吃尽了苦头。演讲中我不止一次地呼吁:“千万别在一波比一波跌得深的行情中抢反弹!”终于,有一位在加州大学任教的资深投资专家反问我:“Mr.Hu,大道理我们都懂,只想请问当置身于反弹之中,你又是怎么知道行情会一波比一波跌得深呢?”

问得真好!我注意到,与会的嘉宾各个也都睁大了眼睛。

根据我对过去两次熊市中所出现接近50次的反弹案例来做了彻底的研究与比较,得出了一项重要的数据:大跌之后的反弹幅度不及跌幅之半,或反弹成交量未超过下跌日成交量的20%以上,那么这个反弹不但不容易持续,反而可以因此预知还有下一波的更低点

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