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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招 -第94招 揭开“立阳多空指标”的神秘面纱
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Saturday 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招 -第94招 揭开“立阳多空指标”的神秘面纱

投资人问:

  胡老师以前在学校教过我们,要研究股市未来走向,必须勤做功课。记得有一堂课是讨论“由创新高价股的增减来预测短线行情”。我现在手中抱满股票,因此对短线行情格外注意,也开始每天记录创新高的股票家数。

投资人每日例行将创过去3个月(60个交易日)新高的股票家数记录下来,便可从中研判股市近期走势。

  举例说,大盘指数今天创了新高,而同时创过去3个月新高的股票是40家。几天后,大盘指数续奔荣途,连续3天刷新纪录。但仔细观察,发现创3个月新高的股票家数却举步不前,一直维持在40家以下。未与指数同步创新,这不是一个可喜的现象,表示原先在股市中扮演带头角色的股票已经威力大减,并且后续无“股”,怎不令人担心?

  如果把家数增减变化以图形来表达,更能让人清晰明了股市未来走势。为此,我花了不少时间,反复测试,发现如果将创新高的家数的变化以5日移动平均线来表达更能让人一目了然。于是,“立阳多空指标”就这么诞生了。

  计算的原理是,每天可将过去5天(包括当日)创3个月新高价位的股票家数加总后除以5,可得创新价股“5日平均家数”,再将此数字逐日绘制成线路图,便成为“5日移动平均家数线”,这也就是我每天必须看的“立阳多空线”。拿此移动平均线与大盘指数图相比较,若发生线路分歧现象,举例说,大盘指数图一路猛冲,但“立阳多空线”已出现明显翻空走势,由过去经验显示,股市短线已出现“内忧”,须严防指数于10日之内拉回。

  总之,要研究股市多空趋势,必须勤做功课。要在股市中出人头地,必须痛下工夫。

  说明:由创3个月新高家数图已出现右峰比左峰低的“双峰图”是典型波段行情结束的先兆。在右峰跌破支撑的颈线之后,指数还向上跑了9个交易日,然后果然出现了日后一连串的下滑,这不也印证了书中前面提到的量能退潮“十日理论”。

如果每天计算“立阳多空指标”,你是不是就有9天充裕的时间暂时先走一趟了

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