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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招-(25)量能退潮连十天,小心
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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The information contained in is provided to you for general information/circulation only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.

You should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment products mentioned, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs, before making a commitment to purchase the investment product. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.

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Note:
All TA (Technical Analysis) view using charts are for illustration purpose only.
Unless otherwise specified, all charts' sources are from POEMS(Phillip Online Electronic Mart System)

Saturday 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招-(25)量能退潮连十天,小心

投资人问:

  上次胡老师在清华大学演讲时说,股市出现巨量之后的两三天是大盘的安全期。我在这几个月观察到,还真是如此,相当惊讶!但是请问,难道巨量和行情一点关系都没有吗?巨量出现的两三天之后呢?能否请老师公布答案?

  以往我从未公布过这个发现,深怕你们学会以后,就再也不来听我的演讲了。呵呵,好吧,让我来告诉你。

  我常常比喻,当你看到一艘在海中行驶的船,就要联想到——载负重荷的那艘大船就是股价,一望无垠的海水就是成交量。要随时记得大船能够顺利航行,完全是受惠于海水的支撑。这也就是说,没有了量就绝对没有了价,想想看,龙困浅滩的景象。

  再来看看“水涨船高”这句成语,就更能够举一反三。没有一波比一波高的涨潮成交量,哪能够造就出一波比一波高的股价?你曾经在海边数过波浪吗?你知道在涨潮过程中,一个大浪过后,要经过几个小浪才会有更大的浪出现吗?两个大浪的间距若是越拉越远、越隔越久,便会表示涨潮已近尾声。而久盼之后所出现的大浪若又比前一波的大浪小,就会表示已经开始退潮。成交量出现退潮,必定会牵引股价下跌,很少例外。

  经过多年的辛苦统计,我早在25年前便有了关于价量之间互动关系的重大发现。我发现,在一只巨量出现之后的10个交易日之内,若没有及时出现更大的量,那么便表示“量能潮”极可能已由涨潮转为退潮。你们已经知道,量是价的先行指标,再不卖不但没有高价,还往往会沦为一路逃命的难民。

  最近几年,因为应邀演讲,我接触到了亚洲各地的股市。我经过长时间的观察又发现,现在这个关键的10个交易日在亚洲普遍有缩短为5天的趋势。这或许是大家喜欢做短线所造成的现象吧!

  答案是不是已经出来了?下一次当你看到巨量时先别紧张,等到在它出现后的5天到10天左右,要是还没有更大的量来越过它,才需提高警觉!


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