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CK Choy.

Market Sense 市场意识: 胡立阳股票投资100招 -第95招 神奇的“股市地心引力”
Be decisive, Be patient, Don’t be greedy, Don't be stubborn

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Saturday 25 June 2011

胡立阳股票投资100招 -第95招 神奇的“股市地心引力”

投资人问:

  我曾经在腾讯网的视频访谈中,看到老师由苹果掉到头上而发明了“地心引力”原理,我们全家人当时笑得前仰后翻整整三分钟,没想到却因此错过了后来的补充说明,只仿佛听到“连牛顿都要佩服三分”。总之,老师所说的“地心引力”真是精彩,可不可以将它公布?

  既然你已经开口要求,我就再幽默一次好了。我记得那是在28年前的一个炎热下午,我在家中后院的苹果树下睡着了,突然有一颗苹果掉在我的头上,就这么一掉,却促成我发现了曾经令许多美国投资专家认为不可思议的“股市地心引力”!事实上,我的这则故事早已在世界各地的演讲会中成为最受听众喜爱的主题,也成为全球许多著名基金经理人操盘时的秘密武器。来吧,让我跟你说!

  大盘在经过一段时间的酝酿之后,它总会出现一波来势汹汹、向上或者是向下的“突破行情”,这种行情有时发展快速,不是涨得发疯成为“超涨”,便是跌得要命变成“超跌”。此时此刻,投资人若是做错了方向,真会把头发都急白了。但是,不用过度紧张,不论股市如何凶悍地飙涨或是残酷地暴跌,它迟早还是会受到地心引力的影响,被强制拉回整理。牛顿因苹果坠地发现了地球上的地心引力,我则是经过了长达5年的追踪统计,证明股市在冥冥之中也有它的“地心引力区域”。

  在刚开始的统计中显示,大盘指数的“50日移动平均线”的吸力颇为强劲,指数的涨跌只要过了头,都会被这条地心引力线乖乖的吸回,而涨跌是否过大则是以“50日移动平均线”的上下10%为标准。举例说,指数的“50日移动平均线”位置若正是在5000点,那么只要上涨超过10%,也就是当指数爬升到5500点以上时,它在3个交易日之内被向下吸回整理的几率高于八成;若改成5个交易日的话,这个几率会更大于九成。下跌时也是同样情形,当指数下滑到4500点以下时,它被迅速向上吸回的机会便来了。

  指数进入地心引力区会被立刻吸回,在大牛市行情中指数会进入外太空10天左右的时间




  接着,为了找出比“50日移动平均线”对指数起伏更有牵制作用的地心引力线,可是煞费苦心。我曾经试过各种移动平均线,包括10日、30日、72日、144日等,又翻出了华尔街过去20年的走势图来加以验证,但结果总是对一次、错一次,命中率很少高于80%以上的。一直到了第5年,我很偶然的用“30日与72日”的“平均数”来尝试一下。就在一个寒冷的冬夜中,有了令我吓一大跳的发现,因为它的准确率竟然高达90%以上。从今以后,我再也不会在指数大涨时,不知道什么地方应该及时踩刹车,更不会在行情大跌时,白白错失天赐发财的良机了。

  说明:2004年4月到2005年11月期间,可以清晰地看到“地心引力”的神奇魅力。指数只要一进入“地心引力区”,马上就乖乖被向上吸回。

  往后的日子证明,指数绝大部分时间都会“乖乖”的在地心引力线所“管辖”的上下10%范围内起起伏伏,很少胆敢越过雷池一步,简直好比地球永远是绕着太阳运转一样。

  但请特别注意,如果指数不但远远越出了上方轨道,且逗留在“外太空”的时间超过10个交易日以上,这往往是大牛市行情来临的先兆,投资人有福了!




  有一次指数曾创下出轨了整整27天才被地心引力吸回的记录,而后股市果真形成超级牛市。至此,投资人对“立阳地心引力指标”,也就完完全全地信服了。

  以往电脑并不普遍,若想计算30日的移动平均值,就必须每天剔掉最前面一天的指数,再加上当天的最新数字,将连续30天来的指数加总之后除以30就是答案。现在,将电脑设定,每天以现成的30日以及72日移动平均值“加起来除以2”,就能知道地心引力线的最新位置了。

  另外,地心引力线也是大盘的趋势线。假若地心引力线数值持续递增,会表示大盘仍是处在多方区域。但如果这个数值出现了翻转递减现象,从递减的第一天开始,大盘已经转为偏空的下滑走势,非常灵验。当大盘又由上档“地心引力区”拉回时,它将成为初期支撑线;当大盘由底部向上吸回的时候,它则将成为暂时的阻力线。





  说明:上证指数在经历了长达5年的熊市后,2006年5月8日指数向上冲进了10%的“地心引力区”,进入“外太空区”长达20天之久,其后果然形成了一波前所未有的大牛市行情。




  说明:2007年以来,沪深股市一直在超级大牛市行情里面,所以指数常常跑到外太空去玩耍,但是,地心引力线上方20%那条线仍然像是一条“高压电线”,指数碰到它立即被“电”晕而迅速拉回了。至于地心引力线下方10%的那条线(地心引力区)则是准确无比,指数只要触及或接近它,立即被向上吸回。请注意,遇上行情长期低迷不振,指数也会在下方的“地心引力区”逗留好几天,但这并非常态,停得越久,会蓄积更强劲的反弹?道,在此顺便一提

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