QE2結束之後……
Created 06/10/2011 - 11:13
美國第二輪量化寬鬆政策（QE2）將於本月尾結束，美國將會有甚麼進一步行動，未來何去何從，甚至對全球資金市場的影響與衝擊、應付對策等，料已浮現在許多人的腦海中。
美國QE2即將結束，預料對其他國家金融市場的直接影響不顯著。惟它會通過影響全球的宏觀經濟，從而間接影響全球市場，並意味全球流動性（游資）會進一步趨緊，使經濟及市場成長放緩。
換句話說，一旦QE2結束，若是美國沒有採取任何進一步行動，這意味美國的貨幣政策比之前更為緊縮，反而對全球通膨高企有一定的抵銷作用，不過，它同時也對全球經濟成長產生緩沖現象，特別是美國需求萎縮，必會對出口導向經濟受到不利影響。
股市投資者當然是希望美國延長QE2，或甚至進一步推出QE3，為全球市場進一步注入“類固酵”，大開印鈔機器，刺激股市繼續揚升，甚至龍騰虎躍。
不過，這可能將為全球市場帶來更多後遺症，特別是連美國本身也顧忌的百物通膨壓力，因為經過兩輪的QE之後，通膨壓力已經升高，以通膨風險交換經濟成長，已失去吸引力。
認為美國不會進一步採取QE政策的人也認為，美國目前的經濟疲態很可能是暫時現象。特別是最近發生了日本大地震/海嘯天災所帶來的經濟震撼，加上汽油價格飆漲拖累了消費者支出，這些因素可能暫時衝擊全球經濟復甦。其實，目前美國幾近零的短期利率，就是對經濟的持續支撐。
另一邊廂，根據市場對寬鬆政策持續的說法，主要是最近美國經濟出乎意料顯露疲態，助長金融市場對聯邦儲備局必須再採取刺激經濟措施。它的第一季經濟成長減緩，似乎有持續更久的趨勢。而整體經濟的領先指標之一的製造業擴張降溫，5月份的製造業成長大幅減緩，引發經濟將持續冷卻疑慮，都可能促使美國需要進一步刺激經濟措施。
美國上週五公佈的非農數據令人“大跌眼鏡”，即5月份非農就業人數僅增加5.4萬人，比預期中值增加15萬低得多，創下2010年9月來的新低，主要受到製造業就業數據的拖累；5月失業率升至9.1%，創2010年12月以來新高等。
上述美國政府部門最新公佈系列經濟數據，都顯得疲軟不堪。加上歐洲主權債務危機的發展態勢，都有可能是進一步寬鬆的導火線。畢竟在貨幣政策方面，寬鬆還是美聯儲局的主要基調。
今年3月2日，柏南克在眾議院聽證會上曾對議員們表示，為了提振美國經濟，不排除擴大資產購買計劃規模的可能。實施QE3的依據，是經濟再度陷入衰退，及失業率居高不下。
由於QE2為全球市場帶來通膨及動蕩不靖，一度使市場認為繼續實施量化寬松政策的可能性較低。不過，以往紀錄顯示，美國已經習慣於讓全世界為它的債務買單。所以，若它覺得無法刺激經濟的增長，強行推出QE3，不是不可能的。
適逢目前正值QE2結束日益逼近，決定美國下半年貨幣政策走向的關鍵時刻，QE2將是美國的“絕唱”，還是更多寬鬆措施的“序曲”，預料將繼續是近期市場關注的焦點。
Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:10/06/11
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